Beane/McDermott Late Round Draft Success Fact or Fiction?

[jwhit34]

I consider late rounds #s 5-7, here are the picks by year:

 

2017: Matt Milano, Nathan Peterman, Tanner Vallejo

2018: Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, Ray-Ray McCloud, Austin Proehl

2019: Vosean Joseph, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney

 

Milano is a huge get, Neal is a probably a league minimum guy in future (many thought he wouldn't make the 53 his rookie year), rest of '17 and '18 are either out of league or barely hanging on. 

 

2019 is TBD, but many thought Joseph would have been cut/practice squad if not injured, J. Johnson and Sweeney were inactive most of the year, D. Johnson shows some promise but no one really knows. Hopefully a couple become really good pros.

 

I bring this us because a significant number of people expressed angst over the trading of late round picks in the Diggs deal and how good Beane is at finding gems in the late rounds.

 

My take: They have done okay, nothing spectacular. Almost every team hits on a late round pick on occasion. One could make the case that Peterman, McCloud and Proehl were really bad picks. The Milano pick was excellent and inflates the perception of late round drafting success. So trading those picks are really worth it. 

 

Compare that to Bill Polian, who as GM oversaw 6 drafts (1986-91). Here is who he picked in late rounds that had NFL careers spanning around 100 games or more:

'86 - Mark Pike (7th), Butch Rolle (7th)

'87- Keith McKellar (9th), Howard Ballard (11th)

'88-Jeff Wright (8th), Carlton Bailey (9th), Martin Mayhew (10th)

'89-Richard Harvey (11th)

'90- Marvcus Patton (8th), Mike Lodish (10th)

'91-Mark Maddox (9th)

 

Fewer teams and no comp picks back then though. His picks in 5th-6th rounds weren't very good. He's still the standard by which all Bills GMs are measured/compared. 

 

[DJB]

Scouting  has grown leaps and bounds since the days of Polian. A lot less guys slip that far aND end up as late round gems .  

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, DJB said:

Scouting  has grown leaps and bounds since the days of Polian. A lot less guys slip that far aND end up as late round gems .  

This is a good and underrated point. At the same time a lot less guys are early round busts. There is so much information and film on these guys that it is tougher to miss. It is also easily transferred between parties. We also have All-22 types of angles and HD, etc... There is just a lot more than there was even 10-15 years ago. It is going to keep trending that way as technology and analytics keep advancing.
 

It’s not like Kevin Bacon having to fly to the jungle in “The Air Up There” to discover an elite basketball prodigy. Now those guys are everywhere, Siakam, Embiid, etc... 

[White Linen]

Butch Rolle?  He had 38 catches for 213 yards and 11 TD's in 8 years.  He's an example of how Beane isn't finding gems like Polian?

[BUNCH OF MULARKEY]

Here's an idea

Spend a 7th on Walter footballs #1 ranked punter.

1.  Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M  
   Height: 5-11. Weight: 195.  
   Projected Round (2020): 5-7. 
   2/22/20: Mann had a solid week at the Senior Bowl after averaging 47.1 yards per punt with a long of 68 yards in 2019. As a junior, he averaged 51 yards per punt with a long of 82 yards.                                                                                              
2. Compared to Bojorquez 41.9 average 9 more yards is nothing to sneeze at.
3. Just spend the almost worthless pick to ensure you get the one ya want

[BurpleBull]

Can we live a little?

[folz]

1 hour ago, jwhit34 said:

I consider late rounds #s 5-7, here are the picks by year:

 

2017: Matt Milano, Nathan Peterman, Tanner Vallejo

2018: Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, Ray-Ray McCloud, Austin Proehl

2019: Vosean Joseph, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney

 

Milano is a huge get, Neal is a probably a league minimum guy in future (many thought he wouldn't make the 53 his rookie year), rest of '17 and '18 are either out of league or barely hanging on. 

 

2019 is TBD, but many thought Joseph would have been cut/practice squad if not injured, J. Johnson and Sweeney were inactive most of the year, D. Johnson shows some promise but no one really knows. Hopefully a couple become really good pros.

 

I bring this us because a significant number of people expressed angst over the trading of late round picks in the Diggs deal and how good Beane is at finding gems in the late rounds.

 

My take: They have done okay, nothing spectacular. Almost every team hits on a late round pick on occasion. One could make the case that Peterman, McCloud and Proehl were really bad picks. The Milano pick was excellent and inflates the perception of late round drafting success. So trading those picks are really worth it. 

 

Compare that to Bill Polian, who as GM oversaw 6 drafts (1986-91). Here is who he picked in late rounds that had NFL careers spanning around 100 games or more:

'86 - Mark Pike (7th), Butch Rolle (7th)

'87- Keith McKellar (9th), Howard Ballard (11th)

'88-Jeff Wright (8th), Carlton Bailey (9th), Martin Mayhew (10th)

'89-Richard Harvey (11th)

'90- Marvcus Patton (8th), Mike Lodish (10th)

'91-Mark Maddox (9th)

 

Fewer teams and no comp picks back then though. His picks in 5th-6th rounds weren't very good. He's still the standard by which all Bills GMs are measured/compared. 

 

 

I get the point of your post, but it is probably a little premature to say that they are either good or not good at making late round picks.

 

2017 was McDermott and Whaley (no Beane and his staff), so you can't really use that as a template for how they might draft now (plus as you said, Milano is a stud). So, McDermott still hit on 1 of 3 picks.

2018 Siran Neal is a player (I think you write him off too easily); Teller didn't work out here, but we did get a 5th and a 6th round in trade for him, he is in Cleveland now, he played in 15 games for them, starting 9 of them; Ray-Ray has not been good, true, but he's still hanging on the fringes of the league (practice squad), Proehl was a throw away pick (we all knew it even at the time).

2019 Too early to tell with these guys, but Sweeney looked good in preseason and when he got opportunities, the team seems pretty high on Darryl Johnson, and he flashed in preseason too. Joseph was on IR all year, so who knows; and Jaquan Johnson played well on teams (have to wait and see if he'll be good at down and distance as he didn't get many opportunities).

 

Plus, I know you were talking specifically late round picks, but here are some of their UDFAs:

Levi Wallace, Robert Foster, Corey Thompson, Mike Love, Ike Boettger, Jason Croom (all still on the team for now), and Cam Phillips (best WR in the XFL).

 

I agree that as the talent of this team keeps getting better, it is going to be really hard for 5th, 6th, 7th round guys to make the team (unless the Bills find gems that slipped through the cracks), so those picks hold less value than they did, say, two years ago. But I think it is too early to determine that this FO is not good at drafting in the late rounds when they have only had two drafts and you can't really assess last year's class until we see more.

[TC in St. Louis]

I think Vosean Joseph is gonna be a stud.  

 

Here's a quote from his draft profile:  "His tape has no middle ground, it's either really impressive or really ugly. Now go look at his production this year and you realize you can coach some ugly out of his play. He's a '5' right now but we can turn him into a '9.'" - AFC defensive coach

 

That may have been a member of the Bills staff.  If you want, go to youtube and look at his highlights.  

 

We've got the coaching, he's got the potential.