Front Office Poll of WR Prospect Tiers (ESPN Insider)

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

Look, reportedly there are 20 or more WRs in this draft who have a third-round grade or better.  No one--not you, not Brandon Beane, not Bill Belichick--knows which of these guys are going to be true difference-makers in the NFL, especially when we're trying to make distinctions among the top 5 or 6 guys.  The best way to find a "difference maker" is to take two or three of them with your premium picks rather than rolling the dice on one guy.

It’s funny you mention Belichick because probably the worse thing NE does is draft receivers.  They are terrible at it.  I do like Harry so we will see.  

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

It does though due to what I just mentioned. They get favors in return later on. That's how media works.

What favors do you speak of?

[BarleyNY]

Just now, Allen2Moulds said:

I would rather double up on an Elite class, than spend all my draft capital on 1. Especially when history shows us, that it's not uncommon for day 2 guys, to outperform day 1guys.

I think that the narrative of being able to count on finding elite WRs later in the draft is overstated.  Yes, it certainly happens, but the hit rate is a lot lower.  Looking at the top 10 WRs last season we have 5 first, 2 second and 3 third rounders.  Your best shot is still early.  If that fails, sure, take a couple of shots soon after. 

[DCOrange]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

What favors do you speak of?

It can be a lot of things. Leaking stories that the team wants leaked to give them leverage, leaking stories that the individual person wants leaked (ex: Brooklyn Nets just fired their coach and the media went crazy with all these stories of how amazing the coach is...that's because he did stuff like this so that they'd return the favor by speaking highly of him, helping him to get future interviews), media member telling the team/individual what another team is thinking, etc.

Edited March 11, 2020 by DCOrange

[BarleyNY]

35 minutes ago, mannc said:

Look, reportedly there are 20 or more WRs in this draft who have a third-round grade or better.  No one--not you, not Brandon Beane, not Bill Belichick--knows which of these guys are going to be true difference-makers in the NFL, especially when we're trying to make distinctions among the top 5 or 6 guys.  The best way to find a "difference maker" is to take two or three of them with your premium picks rather than rolling the dice on one guy.

That’s a really poor argument.  Really?  No one knows for certain who the best WR will be?  Obviously.  That’s actually a very analytics thing to say.  But there’s also a lot of GMs and scouts who get paid a lot of money to take calculated gambles on players.  If they want to use 2 or 3 early picks finding that special WR then we both seem okay with that.  But why not take those picks and use them to acquire one WR with a much greater chance of becoming elite than two WRs who each have a substantially lesser chance?  And, yes, looking at the OP that is definitely the case. 
 

If we had Deandre Hopkins and no one else of value in our WR corps I’d agree with you. But we’re the opposite.  We’re very good at #2 and #3, but we have no #1.  This draft is fat with WRs, but the top of the class is small.  Just two.  And one of those is the kind of WR we need.  That’s Lamb and he’s the guy I want us to go get. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by BarleyNY

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s a really poor argument.  Really?  No one knows for certain who the best WR will be?  Obviously.  That’s actually a very analytics thing to say.  But there’s also a lot of GMs and scouts who get paid a lot of money to take calculated gambles on players.  If they want to use 2 or 3 early picks finding that special WR then we both seem okay with that.  But why not take those picks and use them to acquire one WR with a much greater chance of becoming elite than two WRs who each have a substantially lesser chance?  And, yes, looking at the OP that is definitely the case. 

That's the point.  In this draft, the guy you are giving up three premium picks for doesn't have a much greater chance of becoming elite than the guy you could take at 22, or even 54.  

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

It’s funny you mention Belichick because probably the worse thing NE does is draft receivers.  They are terrible at it.  I do like Harry so we will see.  

 

And thank God for that...

Edited March 11, 2020 by mannc

[stinky finger]

On ‎3‎/‎10‎/‎2020 at 10:07 AM, whatdrought said:

I’ll take 1 Mims with a side of fries please. 

 

Mims the word

[BarleyNY]

7 minutes ago, mannc said:

That's the point.  In this draft, the guy you are giving up three premium picks for doesn't have a much greater chance of becoming elite than the guy you could take at 22, or even 54.  

Statistically that is incorrect.  A highly drafted WR does have a much greater chance of becoming elite than a lower drafted one. 

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Im curius to see who they bring in FA.  I believe they go edge or LB in round 1.  Day 2 i think they get multiple skill players on offense.

 

I can absolutely see this.

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Statistically that is incorrect.  A highly drafted WR does have a much greater chance of becoming elite than a lower drafted one. 

10 vs 22?   I highly doubt it, and especially not in a draft like this one.  The list of WR busts in the top 15 picks is very long, especially the past 3 or 4 years.

[Locomark]

On 3/10/2020 at 9:25 AM, jletha said:

I would love a tackle r potentially edge rusher in Rd 1 at 22 and then a trade up in to the 2nd round for one of the tier 3 guys.

 

 

There is no one worth 22 at edge this year IMO....

[BarleyNY]

Just now, mannc said:

10 vs 22?   I highly doubt it, and especially not in a draft like this one.  The list of WR busts in the top 15 picks is very long, especially the past 3 or 4 years.

Odds of a WR becoming elite is definitely different between tiers of prospects.  I have Lamb and Jeudy as the only two blue chip WRs in the draft.  I also have Lamb as a fit for what the Bills need.  So once he’s gone, then I’d largely agree with you.  Then we’re looking at a big pool of similarly rated red chip WRs.  At that point I’d only look to maneuver a little to be sure we got one (or maybe two) that fit our needs.  For instance, Lamb is a way better prospect than Shenault.  If we can’t reasonably get Lamb, then so be it.  We are off to Shenault and similarly ranked prospects.  It could still work out, but the odds are not nearly as good. 

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

The list of WR busts in the top 15 picks is very long, especially the past 3 or 4 years.

 

The list of WRs taken at all in the top 15 the past 2 or 4 years isnt even long.

 

2019 - 0

2018 - 0

2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross

2016 - Corey Coleman

 

But if you go to a year where the class was known to be strong coming in (like 2020 is considered), such as 2014, you have Watkins, Evans, and OBJ all in the top 15 and none of them are busts.

 

I'd guess Jeudy and Lamb will go top 15 this year, and I'd bet they both turn into successful pros. Too bad we wont have a shot at either of them.

[1997WS6]

15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The list of WRs taken at all in the top 15 the past 2 or 4 years isnt even long.

 

2019 - 0

2018 - 0

2017 - Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross

2016 - Corey Coleman

 

But if you go to a year where the class was known to be strong coming in (like 2020 is considered), such as 2014, you have Watkins, Evans, and OBJ all in the top 15 and none of them are busts.

 

I'd guess Jeudy and Lamb will go top 15 this year, and I'd bet they both turn into successful pros. Too bad we wont have a shot at either of them.

I agree with most of what you said, but Sammy Watkins is damn near a bust.  Taken that early in the draft I would want WAY more production than 1 season over 1000 yards.  The numbers he's put up over the past 4 years are middle of the road tight end numbers.

[DrDawkinstein]

23 minutes ago, 1997WS6 said:

I agree with most of what you said, but Sammy Watkins is damn near a bust.  Taken that early in the draft I would want WAY more production than 1 season over 1000 yards.  The numbers he's put up over the past 4 years are middle of the road tight end numbers.

 

Ehh, he was a bit over-drafted, but still performs, and has performed well for the Super Bowl champions... so not sure he's even almost a bust. If anything, I'd just use that as an example of why it's not worth it for top-10 teams to trade up into the top-5 for a WR in a deep draft like this one. But that doesnt mean a team at 22 shouldnt move up to get one of the top tier guys. Had any team in 2014 moved up to get Watkins/Evans/OBJ in the 10-15 range, they would have looked smart.

 

I'd save that label for the likes of Corey Coleman, who is nearly out of the league already, and may not get picked up as a UFA this year.

[Allen2Moulds]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I think that the narrative of being able to count on finding elite WRs later in the draft is overstated.  Yes, it certainly happens, but the hit rate is a lot lower.  Looking at the top 10 WRs last season we have 5 first, 2 second and 3 third rounders.  Your best shot is still early.  If that fails, sure, take a couple of shots soon after. 

I'm not against getting a receiver early, as in the 1st round. I just don't want to give away picks to do it. At the end of the day, you win in the trenches, and we still need a pass rusher and at least 1 oline.  I wouldn't mind if we went WR/DE, OT, WR, with our 1st 4 picks. 

 

Ideally for me, I would prefer we trade up in the 2nd, or trade back into the bottom of the 3rd, to nab our 2nd WR. 

 

I heard the other day that on average, 12 WR get drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. This year, they said there are as many as 27 WRs with a day one/day 2 grade.  Come 3rd round, there's probably going to be a guy or 2, that has no business still being there.

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I'm not against getting a receiver early, as in the 1st round. I just don't want to give away picks to do it. At the end of the day, you win in the trenches, and we still need a pass rusher and at least 1 oline.  I wouldn't mind if we went WR/DE, OT, WR, with our 1st 4 picks. 

 

Ideally for me, I would prefer we trade up in the 2nd, or trade back into the bottom of the 3rd, to nab our 2nd WR. 

 

I heard the other day that on average, 12 WR get drafted in the 1st 3 rounds. This year, they said there are as many as 27 WRs with a day one/day 2 grade.  Come 3rd round, there's probably going to be a guy or 2, that has no business still being there.

 

I agree with all this.

 

While it would be nice to get a top tier guy, and much safer as far as potential success, it will cost us way too much in order to get up high enough to nab Jeudy or Lamb, and probably even Ruggs. Rough estimate being a 1st and 2nd AND another pick along with them. With that, I think 2 WRs in our top 4 picks is the way to go.

[jletha]

2 hours ago, Locomark said:

There is no one worth 22 at edge this year IMO....

Yea I remember a time when it didnt look like Epenesa would be available for us, and now it looks like he doesnt deserve 22. Crazy how things change. Sign me up for a tackle there.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, jletha said:

Yea I remember a time when it didnt look like Epenesa would be available for us, and now it looks like he doesnt deserve 22. Crazy how things change. Sign me up for a tackle there.

It's my opinion that people over-think the Draft. Does it really make that much difference is someone is taken near the bottom of Round 1 or the top of Round 2. Really?  Or is this arm chair GMs afraid to stick their name on the line, figuring a 'bust' is less of a 'bust' if he's taken in a later Round.? The Draft is simply not that accurate.  If there's a player at a position you need, take him while he's still there! Not guts, no glory.