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This is the year to trade down and pick up multiple Day 2 picks


Estro

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All of this talk about trading up and trading back is futile since we don’t know who’s available and how their board lines up. This will come down to decisions based upon reality rather than preferred strategy. That’s why it’s hard, but so far I like how they have handled our drafts. 

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18 hours ago, Estro said:

If there's one minor complaint I have with the Bills under the Beane/McDermott era its their propensity to always want to trade up in Rounds 2 & 3. Now they have hit on their fair share of players, but trading up in the draft, as a whole, has proven to be a losing strategy longterm.

 

This year I'm getting the sense the Bills are going to make the smart move and look to sell the #22 pick. Beane, in an interview, gave a hypothetical, but he kind of tipped his hand and admitted the strength of this draft is in rounds 2 and 3......and I think the Bills would love to be in a position position to pick 4 maybe even 5 players in Rounds 2 & 3 of the NFL draft.  How?

 

Glad you asked......

 

Trade pick #22 to a QB needy team looking to leapfrog the Patriots at pick #23.  There are quite a few teams this could apply to, but for the sake of this scenario let's use the Colts who have picks #34 & #75 (which happens to be an almost exact match on the trade value chart)

 

Now the Bills are sitting with picks #34, #54, #75 & #86 and #100 (via a trade up with our 4th and both 5ths, because you know they can't go a whole draft without getting an itch for a trade up)

 

Under this scenario you could have a 2nd day as follows:

#34 - Yetur Gross Matos (DE)

#54 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

#75 - Damon Arnette (CB)

#86 - Bryan Edwards (WR)

#100 - KJ Hill (slot WR)

This is absolutely horrible....

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44 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:


There's absolutely no way you can say that with any certainty.

 

Josh Allen trade cost them a starting LT and 2 2nd round picks.

 

Edmunds trade cost them the 1st pick of the 3rd round

 

Zay Jones trade cost them a 3rd

 

5

 

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Just now, Clemfield2622 said:

Josh Allen trade cost them a starting LT and 2 2nd round picks.

 

Edmunds trade cost them the 1st pick of the 3rd round

 

Zay Jones trade cost them a 3rd

 

5

 

 

:lol:

 

Again, how can you POSSIBLY say those two 2nd round picks would be starters or even that they'd get a starting LT instead of JA?

 

Not taking JA changes the whole draft board for every team.

 

You can NOT make that claim, it's completely impossible to say.

 

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10 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

:lol:

 

Again, how can you POSSIBLY say those two 2nd round picks would be starters or even that they'd get a starting LT instead of JA?

 

Not taking JA changes the whole draft board for every team.

 

You can NOT make that claim, it's completely impossible to say.

 

Where did I say they would be starting instead of Josh Allen?

 

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44 minutes ago, Clemfield2622 said:

Josh Allen trade cost them a starting LT and 2 2nd round picks.

 

Edmunds trade cost them the 1st pick of the 3rd round

 

Zay Jones trade cost them a 3rd

 

5

 

So, what would you have done instead of trading up for Allen, who was the top QB on their board?  Keep the picks and end up with Mason Rudolph and be in the QB market this offseason?  Don't say  draft Jackson, because he wasn't on their board.  From 2016 to 2018 all but 1 1st round QB was traded up for, with many satisfied customers.  Maybe it's time to admit the GMs around the league know more than you do.  I figured that out years ago, but some of you still think you know more than the best GMs in the league.

 

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1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

So, what would you have done instead of trading up for Allen, who was the top QB on their board?  Keep the picks and end up with Mason Rudolph and be in the QB market this offseason?  Don't say  draft Jackson, because he wasn't on their board.  From 2016 to 2018 all but 1 1st round QB was traded up for, with many satisfied customers.  Maybe it's time to admit the GMs around the league know more than you do.  I figured that out years ago, but some of you still think you know more than the best GMs in the league.

 

 

No, no, no. The average poster here is much smarter than our FO staff........IF you give them the advantage of hindsight. That’s an important requirement.   :)

 

I could win the Powerball next week, if only I could have the right numbers today. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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2 minutes ago, njbuff said:

On the reverse side........................

 

Are you folks willing to trade up to 9 and give Jacksonville a 2021 1st round pick for CeeDee Lamb?

A lot depends on if you think the top three are elite and truly distance themselves from the next rung of receivers in a deep draft. If not, wait for Jefferson, Higgins, etc. Imo, WR1 is a key to Josh Allen's continued development and significant improvement on offense. You're not getting one in FA and then it's a question of whether any of the rookies are likely to break out quickly. If Beane determines Lamb is the next Julio Jones, for example, I expect him to be aggressive to move up. I personally like the fella and am inclined to take a shot, but I'm no expert.

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15 hours ago, Pete said:

I would always trade down for extra picks- it increases odds of hitting on an elite talent,

 

Not really. Trading down increases your chance of getting a starting level talent. If you want elite talent you're far more likely to hit that in the 1st round.

 

https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/picks-perform-best-nfl-draft/

 

Smart-Select-20200306-231047-Chrome.jpg

 

So from 1st to 2nd round, Pro Bowlers drop from a 39.3% chance to a 16.7% chance. For all pros it's 16.1% to 4.8%. And it only gets worse from there.

 

And obviously the higher the pick, the likelier your odds of getting an elite player. In a draft like this one with three tier 1A prospects at WR it makes a lot of sense to trade up to maximize our chance of getting an elite player at a position of need.

 

We don't need more depth. We need game changers.

Edited by HappyDays
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14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The difference in the talent is what matters.   The special talent is generally in the top four or five, maybe up to the top 10, but after that, you aren't talking about guys who are likely All-Pro and HOF talents.   You're just talking about guys who project to be very good NFL players.

 

Most years I would agree this is the case. I'm generally against trading up. The difference this year is that there are three agreed upon elite WR prospects, and a ton of 2nd/3rd tier WR depth. Any one of Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs would be a top 10 pick any other draft year. But there aren't that many WR needy teams in the top 10, and a couple teams will convince themselves they can wait for later WR talent based on the depth of the class. So it is likely that 1 or 2 of those WRs will fall out of the top 10. Which means we could trade up for an elite WR prospect without selling the farm. That is a very unique position to be in and I hope we don't squander it.

Edited by HappyDays
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3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not really. Trading down increases your chance of getting a starting level talent. If you want elite talent you're far more likely to hit that in the 1st round.

 

https://www.betlabssports.com/blog/picks-perform-best-nfl-draft/

 

Smart-Select-20200306-231047-Chrome.jpg

 

So from 1st to 2nd round, Pro Bowlers drop from a 39.3% chance to a 16.7% chance. For all pros it's 16.1% to 4.8%. And it only gets worse from there.

 

And obviously the higher the pick, the likelier your odds of getting an elite player. In a draft like this one with three tier 1A prospects at WR it makes a lot of sense to trade up to maximize our chance of getting an elite player at a position of need.

 

We don't need more depth. We need game changers.

You forgot to add the odds for the extras picks acquired. That’s the whole point of trading down.  Instead of pinning hopes on three guys in rounds 1-3, you ma be able to draft 5 in rounds 1-3.

There are tons of great WR’s in NFL that were not taken in the first round.

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8 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

So, what would you have done instead of trading up for Allen, who was the top QB on their board?  Keep the picks and end up with Mason Rudolph and be in the QB market this offseason?  Don't say  draft Jackson, because he wasn't on their board.  From 2016 to 2018 all but 1 1st round QB was traded up for, with many satisfied customers.  Maybe it's time to admit the GMs around the league know more than you do.  I figured that out years ago, but some of you still think you know more than the best GMs in the league.

 

I don't think I know more than anybody. I just watch 32 teams try and field competitive teams, and a lot of them suck at it. Why do some suck? Because they think they know what makes a player great , when in reality it's a crap shoot.

 

I'm just not a fan of trade ups. You're giving up lottery tickets for a shot at a guy YOU think is great. But GM's and scouts are wrong every single day.

 

How many of those QB's traded up for worked out, and how many busted?  I understand QB is the most important position in sports, but while GM's have an incredible amount of knowledge and do incredible work to get it right, get it wrong all the time.

 

That's all I'm trying to say. 

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2 hours ago, Clemfield2622 said:

I don't think I know more than anybody. I just watch 32 teams try and field competitive teams, and a lot of them suck at it. Why do some suck? Because they think they know what makes a player great , when in reality it's a crap shoot.

 

I'm just not a fan of trade ups. You're giving up lottery tickets for a shot at a guy YOU think is great. But GM's and scouts are wrong every single day.

 

How many of those QB's traded up for worked out, and how many busted?  I understand QB is the most important position in sports, but while GM's have an incredible amount of knowledge and do incredible work to get it right, get it wrong all the time.

 

That's all I'm trying to say. 

Here's why we disagree:  You think it's just a crapshoot.  I think a competent organization with good scouting can judge players well enough that it's not a crapshoot.  The draft becomes a crapshoot the further down you go.  

 

Ok, let's look at the QBs traded up for.  The jury is still out on most of the 2018 QBs, but of the 2 prior drafts the majority of teams are totally satisfied.  The exceptions clearly are Arizona with Rosen & Denver with  Lynch.  The jury is still out on the Bears choice of Trubisky, but the other 2 QB picks traded up for are their team's franchise QBs.

 

2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch.  2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson. 2018: Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson.  Of the 10, 7 have led their team to the playoffs, 3 of the teams have already been in the Super Bowl with 1 winning it & another winning it after the QB got hurt and his backup won the game.  Note the best organizations traded up for the QBs who have had the best results, while the 2 biggest busts were from questionable organizations (I include Denver since they have failed a few times finding the right QB).  

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