Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This is a post which, while citing sources, seems quite speculative and deserving of discussion.

 

Put 'er here!

 

I'll start off - I don't read Italian well, so I can't assess the calculations.  But I think the real fatality rate being 1/25th Italy's current case fatality rate may be somewhat dicey.

I wonder if the professor actually wrote something much more guarded - that's a lower bound or something - and the press ran with it.  In any case, 1/25 of Italy's current case fatality rate would be 0.5%, which is still about 5x more deadly than seasonal influenza - and that's not assessing the impact of the hospitals being overloaded (China since 1 Feb is saying 0.7% case fatality rate, so 0.5% is not too dissimilar.  S. Korea, with widespread testing and hospital care still available to any who need it, 1.7%)

 

Several unknowns:

1) % of true asymptomatic cases.  S. Korea, which has done some of the most sweeping covid-19 testing, including extensive contact-tracing using Big Data, was saying 20% asymptomatic last I looked.  I"m not sure what his numbers, which amount to saying 50-80% asymptomatic (5 million symptomatic, 10-20 million  asymptomatic) have as a basis? 

 

I think he may be basing this on Italy's own 3,400 person test case: the town of Vo, which tested every resident after the first resident died (first death in Italy).  They found 3% of the population was infected, 25% with "flu like symptoms" and 75% with "mild to no" symptoms.  How many of that 75% were truly asymptomatic vs. not sick with symptoms that were enquired about (fever, cough, difficulty breathing)?  [this is taking testing at face value - PCR is notoriously easy to contaminate]

Iceland has reported 50% asymptomatic, but I think they may be a special case because not a lot of heavy industry/pollution injuring lungs etc.  S. Korea, which has done very widespread testing and contact tracing and seems to be handling it without lockdowns, says 20% truly asymptomatic.  There's also the trite but true point that what "asymptomatic" means, depends upon the symptoms enquired about.

The bottom line is, until we get some pretty widespread serology testing, we don't know.

 

2) What is the real fatality rate?  The reference given makes a pretty good case that there's an excess death rate in Italy beyond the known Covid-19 case fatality rate of 12.3%,  but I have trouble seeing it (from the reference) as 75% more.  Maybe 2x?  It's still significant.  It would not surprise me if when everything settled down, it came out that a lot more people died in Wuhan than authorities were aware of (people who chose to stay home or who couldn't alert anyone to get them), or who just weren't listed as a covid-19 death.

 

 

 

[Hardhatharry]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This is a post which, while citing sources, seems quite speculative and deserving of discussion.

 

Put 'er here!

 

I'll start off - I don't read Italian well, so I can't assess the calculations.  But I think the real fatality rate being 1/25th Italy's current case fatality rate may be somewhat dicey.

I wonder if the professor actually wrote something much more guarded - that's a lower bound or something - and the press ran with it.  In any case, 1/25 of Italy's current case fatality rate would be 0.5%, which is still about 5x more deadly than seasonal influenza - and that's not assessing the impact of the hospitals being overloaded (China since 1 Feb is saying 0.7% case fatality rate, so 0.5% is not too dissimilar.  S. Korea, with widespread testing and hospital care still available to any who need it, 1.7%)

 

Several unknowns:

1) % of true asymptomatic cases.  S. Korea, which has done some of the most sweeping covid-19 testing, including extensive contact-tracing using Big Data, was saying 20% asymptomatic last I looked.  I"m not sure what his numbers, which amount to saying 50-80% asymptomatic (5 million symptomatic, 10-20 million  asymptomatic) have as a basis? 

 

I think he may be basing this on Italy's own 3,400 person test case: the town of Vo, which tested every resident after the first resident died (first death in Italy).  They found 3% of the population was infected, 25% with "flu like symptoms" and 75% with "mild to no" symptoms.  How many of that 75% were truly asymptomatic vs. not sick with symptoms that were enquired about (fever, fatigue, muscle aches)?  [this is taking testing at face value - PCR is notoriously easy to contaminate]

Iceland has reported 50% asymptomatic, but I think they may be a special case because not a lot of heavy industry/pollution injuring lungs etc.  S. Korea, which has done very widespread testing and contact tracing and seems to be handling it without lockdowns, says 20% truly asymptomatic.

The bottom line is, until we get some pretty widespread serology testing, we don't know.

 

2) What is the real fatality rate?  The reference given makes a pretty good case that there's an excess death rate in Italy beyond the known Covid-19 case fatality rate of 12.3%,  but I have trouble seeing it (from the reference) as 75% more.  Maybe 2x?  It's still significant.  It would not surprise me if when everything settled down, it came out that a lot more people died in Wuhan than authorities were aware of (people who chose to stay home or who couldn't alert anyone to get them), or who just weren't listed as a covid-19 death.

 

 

 

Italy is also not counting all of the deaths, people found dead in nursing homes and other areas do not get tested.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Italy is also not counting all of the deaths, people found dead in nursing homes and other areas do not get tested.

 

Yes, if you look at the link, you will see his argument for that (excess deaths vs. last year are > than covid-19 deaths by some amount)

That is not an "also", it is an integral part of the argument being made.

[Augie]

I am embarrassed by our Governor. He wants us to believe he knew less about this than our 6 year old grandson, and now this:

 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/georgia-mayor-blasts-kempsreckless-mandate-reopen-state-beaches/YRQU6PXKSJHZPHTKU5PDCRFOJ4/

[Punching Bag]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

I am embarrassed by our Governor. He wants us to believe he knew less about this than our 6 year old grandson, and now this:

 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/georgia-mayor-blasts-kempsreckless-mandate-reopen-state-beaches/YRQU6PXKSJHZPHTKU5PDCRFOJ4/

 

Governor has Florida high school education?  Only explanation I can give.

[jburt2625]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

I am embarrassed by our Governor. He wants us to believe he knew less about this than our 6 year old grandson, and now this:

 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/georgia-mayor-blasts-kempsreckless-mandate-reopen-state-beaches/YRQU6PXKSJHZPHTKU5PDCRFOJ4/

Wow that effing sucks

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Interesting visualization of where people were still traveling and where people are staying home

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR05oMdMkRaUtW8PJ-X1Gge6RD5NgPrjb6e-v1VTpHdwocnZ1bAi5pMj5FI

 

 

 

[John in Jax]

The “how far people are traveling” has so many variables, not sure why they’re even reporting stuff like this. Things such as how many people are still going to work, how far away is work from their home, how far away from home is the closest grocery store, are people bicycling or motorcycling away from home? (FL has either the most or 2nd most [CA] motorcycle registrations in the country), etc. Plus the city of Jacksonville, in total area (square miles), is the largest city in the country. 
 

EDIT TO ADD: Taking your boat out on the water is still allowed in FL too, so a s**tload of people are DRIVING to the marina, and/or going to get their boat from storage, then DRIVING to the boat ramp to launch their boat into the water. Y’all don’t have a problem with this, do you? I mean the only people that will come close to you are the people who are in your vehicle, and going out in the boat with you.

Edited April 5, 2020 by John in Jax

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

The “how far people are traveling” has so many variables, not sure why they’re even reporting stuff like this. Things such as how many people are still going to work, how far away is work from their home, how far away from home is the closest grocery store, are people bicycling or motorcycling away from home? (FL has either the most or 2nd most [CA] motorcycle registrations in the country), etc. Plus the city of Jacksonville, in total area (square miles), is the largest city in the country. 

 

Yes, it has many variables, but the impact of state shutdowns seems pretty clear, no?

I think this is one of the clearer presentations:

 

We really just need a clear, unambiguous National directive.  What's going to happen is areas that haven't shut down yet, are going to get it later, propegate flares, and drag this thing out.

 

[Sundancer]

As a business owner, I really want to see what the plan is to come out of this initial small wave of cases. We can only do this a single time or it’s going to be really bad long term for the economy, much worse than this ripple of cases. 
 

We can’t get a timeline because as the good doctor Fauci has said, we are on the virus’s timeline, but I’d like to see the plan. And yes it needs to be a national one. 
 

This is currently my biggest frustration with this. 

[SDS]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes, it has many variables, but the impact of state shutdowns seems pretty clear, no?

I think this is one of the clearer presentations:

 

We really just need a clear, unambiguous National directive.  What's going to happen is areas that haven't shut down yet, are going to get it later, propegate flares, and drag this thing out.

 

I don’t even how to Interpret that graph. What are those colors?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...seeing TBD folks discussing needs of senior citizens and elderly, I wanted to pass on this "note of vigilance" from our Bank President.....please note the red highlight as they are perhaps THE most vulnerable and an easy target for scammers....scared, shut in/home alone yet in desperate need.......

 

Here is a helpful note received from our Bank President. Please be vigilant regarding these matters. Our SPAM FILTER is grabbing multiple scam emails peddling masks, hand sanitizers, etc. I saw 10 oz hand sanitizer on Amazon for $60 per bottle (until Amazon caught up with the ad and pulled it). Another widespread scam is phony “grocery service shoppers” calling to offer the “(fraudulent) services”. They claim to need either your bank account info or credit card info up front to pay for your “order”. Many reports cite them targeting the unsuspecting elderly who are afraid to go out and are in need of goods. If family members could be affected, PLEASE let them know.

 

 

Avoid Scams, Fraud and Cyber Security Risks

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DOJ) are all reporting a spike in the number and diversity of financial and cyber crimes related to Coronavirus.

Some of these scams promise false cures while others offer high-demand food or paper products online with the only goal to steal your credit card information. For your safety, we encourage you to be extremely cautious during this time and look for these common signs of fraud, as noted by the FTC:

• Hang up on robocalls. Don’t press any numbers. Scammers are using illegal robocalls to pitch everything from scam Coronavirus treatments to work-at-home schemes. The recording might say that pressing a number will let you speak to a live operator or remove you from their call list, but it might lead to more robocalls, instead.
• Ignore online offers for vaccinations and home test kits. Scammers are trying to get you to buy products that aren’t proven to treat or prevent the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) — online or in stores. At this time, there also are no FDA-authorized home test kits for the Coronavirus. Visit the FDA to learn more.
• Fact-check information. Scammers, and sometimes well-meaning people, share information that hasn’t been verified. Before you pass on any messages, contact trusted sources. Visit https://www.coronavirus.gov/ for information.
• Know who you’re buying from. Online sellers may claim to have in-demand products, like cleaning, household, and health and medical supplies when, in fact, they don’t.
• Don’t respond to texts and emails about checks from the government. The details are still being worked out. Anyone who tells you they can get you the money now is a scammer.
• Don’t click on links from sources you don’t know. They could download viruses onto your computer or device.
• Watch for emails claiming to be from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or experts saying they have information about the virus. For the most up-to-date information about the Coronavirus, visit the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).
• Do your homework when it comes to donations. Whether through charities or crowdfunding sites, don’t let anyone rush you into making a donation. If someone wants donations in cash, by gift card, or by wiring money, don’t do it!

[BillsFan4]

On the firing of captain captain crozier from yesterday’s press conference:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by BillsFan4

[bdutton]

[davefan66]

20 hours ago, Gray Beard said:

@Hapless Bills Fan
 

This makes more sense...   Cuomo is going to “ask” upstate hospitals to donate 20% of unused ventilators, with the goal of getting 500 total ventilators.

 

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/gov-cuomo-clarifies-plan-to-seize-ventilators-expects-to-get-500-statewide.html

 

This is not the answer.  To rob Peter to pay Paul unless you are taking ventilators from areas that have very low number of cases, and can be proven through mass testing.

 

Buffalo hospitals are all being hit with a COVID patients, and their ICU’s are filling quickly with vented patients.  There had been a decent increase since a week ago, and the expectation is our apex is this upcoming week, or within the next two/three.  Again, no way to know without testing.

 

Since the average vent patient can be 4 days to multiple weeks, how can we say we can spare them here? What happens to our community??

 

Thankfully, NYC procured 1000 vents from China that were delivered yesterday and another 140 that were loaned from Oregon that doesn’t expect their apex for some time.

 

As much as we need to help others in this time of need, how do we do that responsibly without harming our community?

 

As an aside, There were false reports the National Guard “procured” vents from a few local hospitals a few nights ago.  Categorically denied by those hospital systems. 

[BillsFan4]

3 minutes ago, davefan66 said:

This is not the answer.  To rob Peter to pay Paul unless you are taking ventilators from areas that have very low number of cases, and can be proven through mass testing.

 

Buffalo hospitals are all being hit with a COVID patients, and their ICU’s are filling quickly with vented patients.  There had been a decent increase since a week ago, and the expectation is our apex is this upcoming week, or within the next two/three.  Again, no way to know without testing.

 

Since the average vent patient can be 4 days to multiple weeks, how can we say we can spare them here? What happens to our community??

 

Thankfully, NYC procured 1000 vents from China that were delivered yesterday and another 140 that were loaned from Oregon that doesn’t expect their apex for some time.

 

As much as we need to help others in this time of need, how do we do that responsibly without harming our community?

 

As an aside, There were false reports the National Guard “procured” vents from a few local hospitals a few nights ago.  Categorically denied by those hospital systems. 

Yes, the answer is quite clearly that we need more ventilators from the federal stockpile.

 

also, iirc Mark poloncarz said that he isn’t giving up any of our ventilators in Erie county. I’m hoping that we are exempt anyway since our case #’s are the second highest in the state. As you said we are likely going to need all our ventilators.

 

I don’t envy the position Cuomo is in though. It’s a no-win situation. Do you let people in NYC die now to save people upstate later? Do you let people upstate die later to save people in NYC? It’s not a decision he should even have to make. We should be given enough ventilators to fill our current need.

[Sundancer]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

I don’t even how to Interpret that graph. What are those colors?

here is the article. I actually didn’t find it enlightening except further evidence that the patchwork solution sucks. Where orders were issued, people stayed home. No kidding. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

[davefan66]

1 minute ago, BillsFan4 said:

Yes, the answer is quite clearly that we need more ventilators from the federal stockpile.

 

also, iirc Mark poloncarz said that he isn’t giving up any of our ventilators in Erie county. I’m hoping that we are exempt anyway since our case #’s are the second highest in the state. As you said we are likely going to need all our ventilators.

 

I don’t envy the position Cuomo is in though. It’s a no-win situation. Do you let people in NYC die now to save people upstate later? Do you let people upstate die later to save people in NYC? It’s not a decision he should even have to make. We should be given enough ventilators to fill our current need.

There is only a finite number of ventilators available throughout the US.  My guess is they are purchased based on the number of vented patients a hospital has historically seen, with of course additional for unforeseen needs.  Clearly, there isn’t a vent for every critical care bed, plus overflow.

 

Nobody saw this happening.  So there clearly is not enough equipment and supplies.  The answer is to produce more ASAP.  But that doesn’t help the current epicenters.

 

What needs to happen is a national effort to pool resources as best as possible.  I’m sure there are vents in areas not hit yet that could be loaned to areas that are in desperate need.  We need a single point of contact to help facilitate the transfer of equipment and supplies to maximize.

 

How do we choose who gets and who doesn’t?  Do we underserve an area today, to serve an area tomorrow?  I don’t have that answer.  What I can say is there has been, and will continue to be tough decisions being made by the medical community.  Decisions as to who to hospitalize and who stays home.  Decisions on who gets a vent and who doesn’t. Decisions that should never have to be made.

Working in health care, our hospitals have been bracing for severe cuts from the federal and state levels.  Prior to this pandemic we had a loss of jobs, positions not being filled, less available supplies, lower staffing levels, loss of OT, open shifts not being filled.  Literally Told to “do more, with less”.  As health care providers, we will always “do more with less”.  How can we let our patients suffer??  It should never come down to that.
 

That being said, there has to be change in health care delivery.  I’m not going to get into a universal health care discussion, or anything else.  Just stating it is difficult to deliver quality care on a daily basis.  Now it is nearly impossible to deliver the care needed.  Staffing, supplies, equipment are not available.  Our patients are suffering and our staff are at severe risk.  
 

Something has to change after we get past this.  It’s not “if” it will happen again, but when.  And clearly, it has the potential to be much worse the next time.

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

Yes, the answer is quite clearly that we need more ventilators from the federal stockpile.

 

also, iirc Mark poloncarz said that he isn’t giving up any of our ventilators in Erie county. I’m hoping that we are exempt anyway since our case #’s are the second highest in the state. As you said we are likely going to need all our ventilators.

 

I don’t envy the position Cuomo is in though. It’s a no-win situation. Do you let people in NYC die now to save people upstate later? Do you let people upstate die later to save people in NYC? It’s not a decision he should even have to make. We should be given enough ventilators to fill our current need.

I have it from an expert authority on the subject that the federal stockpiles are “ours” and are “not supposed to be state stockpiles that they can use.” 

Edited April 5, 2020 by K-9

[BillsFan4]

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

On the firing of captain captain crozier from yesterday’s press conference:

 

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1246547231873925121?s=21

 

 

 

 

Reports that captain Crozier has (supposedly) tested positive for COVID19. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/magazine/navy-captain-crozier-positive-coronavirus.html