Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Reports that captain Crozier has (supposedly) tested positive for COVID19. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/magazine/navy-captain-crozier-positive-coronavirus.html

I hope he recovers quickly. As much as some want to paint him as a “disgrace”, ironically by people who have absolutely NO concept of military order, he performed his paramount duty with courage: the protection of his ship and crew. 

[John in Jax]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

I hope he recovers quickly. As much as some want to paint him as a “disgrace”, ironically by people who have absolutely NO concept of military order, he performed his paramount duty with courage: the protection of his ship and crew. 

Hi there, former active duty US Air Force officer here (and currently in the USAF Reserves). People calling him a disgrace are indeed being too harsh on him......but he did go outside the proper chain of command by copying (cc ing) too many people on his email he sent out.

[K-9]

50 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Hi there, former active duty US Air Force officer here (and currently in the USAF Reserves). People calling him a disgrace are indeed being too harsh on him......but he did go outside the proper chain of command by copying (cc ing) too many people on his email he sent out.

I have to wonder what level of frustration he was feeling to feel compelled to have to write such a detailed account of the situation. His prime directive, as it is for all captains, is to protect his ship and crew. He did that. 

[BillsFan4]

 

[Sundancer]

Changing up the data reports a bit. In Spain and Italy, cases have leveled off or dropped, and deaths are level (not yet dropped). UK and France on the rise still. 

 

The NY Times really has some great resources now for tracking numbers. They have resources like the below graphs, which show many cities except NYC and Detroit trending inside of Lombardy (the curving toward an asymptote is really what you want here), and also you can click into any state to see details. 

 

 

The NYC Metro (NYC and north NJ are almost all of the states' cases) is still a whopping % of all US cases and deaths. Snapshotting yesterday, 830 out of 1330 deaths in the US were from NY and NJ and if you dive into NJ, only 10 were from Camden county, which is a big county right across from Philadelphia. Similarly 15K out of 34K cases were from that NYC Metro area. So the US still has a NYC Metro problem and less of a problem elsewhere, not to minimize things, but it's just the numbers. 

 

Rising issues are coming in NO and Detroit. Philadelphia remains an impressive outlier with proximity to NYC but only 28 deaths TO DATE (and 75 if you count surrounding counties). It's really a head-scratcher compared to NYC with 2300 and NYC metro with about 4000. PA also had its hospitalizations drop yesterday to 50% of the day before after holding steady for many days, and its death rate dropped to its steady rate of about 14/day after a one day pop on Friday. 

 

If you want to look at outliers both good and bad, look to Philadelphia with those 28 cases vs NYC. And look to Tokyo with its 37 million people...and Japan as a country hasn't had a day with more than 8 deaths. Japan is doing something different and right. And Philadelphia did something NYC didn't do or hasn't done or can't do. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Sundancer

[Sundancer]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

#2 priority is tools to control the epidemic and let people out of lockdown once the disease passes. 

1) Serology testing to know who in the general public is immune

2) Mask-wearing in public to cut off asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission chains. 

3) a contact tracing system based on "big data" from cell phones etc - so that when someone tests positive, you can find out if you were close enough that you should be tested

 

 

 

Anecdotally getting a sense that #3 won't happen because people think it's the first step in an Orwellian plan. 

[K-9]

38 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Anecdotally getting a sense that #3 won't happen because people think it's the first step in an Orwellian plan. 

I have to chuckle because imo, we passed the first step in an Orwellian plan a while ago. 

[BillsFan4]

 

She gave a damn good speech.

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

She gave a damn good speech.

It’s incredible to think her first public address to a nation in distress was 80 years ago. 80 years! I give her nothing but high marks here. She reminded me of Barbara Bush, whom I had a ton of respect for along with her husband. 

[BillsFan4]

Summary of yesterday’s national press conference: 

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/04/826741317/federal-government-implements-relief-as-nation-reels-from-coronavirus-pandemic

[SDS]

Does anyone know who’s set of predictions seem to portray the numbers? Also, it’s not apparent to me we are on track for the 100 - 240k fatality point. I am not following those numbers closely, it just feels like with the passage of time these things would have grown substantially.

[Bad Things]

White House daily briefing on now. (Live)

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Bad Things

[Sundancer]

38 minutes ago, SDS said:

Does anyone know who’s set of predictions seem to portray the numbers? Also, it’s not apparent to me we are on track for the 100 - 240k fatality point. I am not following those numbers closely, it just feels like with the passage of time these things would have grown substantially.

The administration seems to be most influenced by the IHME model. We are definitely doing better than that model predicted so far and hopefully we keep that up. 
 

No one has a model that I’ve seen for a semi-distanced reopening in June. It’s the next wave that we should be concerned about. This wave affected only a few people. 

[Punching Bag]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

She gave a damn good speech.

 

Ceertainly better than anything by current politicians in US.

[Bad Things]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

Ceertainly better than anything by current politicians in US.

Go and watch the live briefing right now. Just sayin'

 

 

[Punching Bag]

8 hours ago, davefan66 said:

There is only a finite number of ventilators available throughout the US.  My guess is they are purchased based on the number of vented patients a hospital has historically seen, with of course additional for unforeseen needs.  Clearly, there isn’t a vent for every critical care bed, plus overflow.

racing for severe cuts from the federal and state levels.  

 

 

There is no reason why the US cannot ramp up industries and produce number of ventilators needed if US Government guarantees payments.\

 

This is the biggest failing of our economic system - they can bail out banks on speculation "too big to bust" but they cannot retool as they did for WWII.

3 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

Go and watch the live briefing right now. Just sayin'

 

I have friends trapped by virus and no way out with government agencies failing to help.

I do not have patience for more government speeches.

[John in Jax]

Just now, Limeaid said:

 

There is no reason why the US cannot ramp up industries and produce number of ventilators needed if US Government guarantees payments.\

 

This is the biggest failing of our economic system - they can bail out banks on speculation "too big to bust" but they cannot retool as they did for WWII.

I'm pretty sure that they are doing that, aren't they? Also, to date, have there been any documented instances of a situation (in the USA) where a ventilator was needed, and not available?

[davefan66]

12 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

There is no reason why the US cannot ramp up industries and produce number of ventilators needed if US Government guarantees payments.\

 

This is the biggest failing of our economic system - they can bail out banks on speculation "too big to bust" but they cannot retool as they did for WWII.

 

I have friends trapped by virus and no way out with government agencies failing to help.

I do not have patience for more government speeches.

 

I don’t know why they aren’t ramping up production on ventilators. They absolutely should be.  They should also be ramping up production on PPE.

 

I believe the biggest failure here is the lack of mass testing early on.  Testing would get those know to be positive off the streets and into quarantine.  If done at the onset of this, there would be far fewer cases and less of a need for ventilators and les of a crutch on the health care system.  The virus can incubate for 2-14 days, and there are many infected individuals carrying on without a single symptom.  These two issues alone  have caused many new infections that could have been stopped with mass testing.

Would mass testing have stopped it in its tracks?  No.  But it certainly would have helped with the number of infected individuals.

 

12 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

I'm pretty sure that they are doing that, aren't they? Also, to date, have there been any documented instances of a situation (in the USA) where a ventilator was needed, and not available?

I can’t answer for sure, but in the next week in NYC and in the next few weeks here in Buffalo, we may find out.