Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Sundancer]

37 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

I've been watching the "models" very closely over the past month, and they continue to be wildly inaccurate (I've been checking the npr.org site daily). In fact, just a couple days ago, they were predicting that Florida's peak day would be on April 27, and just NOW I checked it, and the new date is May 6! So a jump of NINE days forward! WTH!? Also, still, as of today, no sick person in all of the USA has been denied a hospital bed or a ventilator (if needed).

 

As far as FL goes though, it would not surprise me if the total deaths jump to put the state in the number 3 position behind NY & Conn (the latter is what the models are saying right now), because well, we have a TON of OLD people living in this state...we might even be the state with the most "old people" in the USA.

 

But I guess we'll all see what happens. Y'all surely realize that there are plenty of states that have been affected by this in a very small way, and that they will be opening things up in May, right?

 

Wow you're right about CT. I missed their caseload. Another NYT Metro casualty. 

 

NPR is just using the IHME data if I remember right. 

Edited April 14, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

Wow you're right about CT. I missed their caseload. Another NYT Metro casualty.

NPR is just using the IHME data if I remember right. 

 

That seems to be the model that everyone is quoting from in the press.  The White House says they have their own model, but it seems to produce the same predictions and change at the same time.

 

1 hour ago, John in Jax said:

I've been watching the "models" very closely over the past month, and they continue to be wildly inaccurate (I've been checking the npr.org site daily). In fact, just a couple days ago, they were predicting that Florida's peak day would be on April 27, and just NOW I checked it, and the new date is May 6! So a jump of NINE days forward! WTH!? Also, still, as of today, no sick person in all of the USA has been denied a hospital bed or a ventilator (if needed).

 

As far as FL goes though, it would not surprise me if the total deaths jump to put the state in the number 3 position behind NY & Conn (the latter is what the models are saying right now), because well, we have a TON of OLD people living in this state...we might even be the state with the most "old people" in the USA.

 

But I guess we'll all see what happens. Y'all surely realize that there are plenty of states that have been affected by this in a very small way, and that they will be opening things up in May, right?

 

Do you understand the difference between "wildly inaccurate" and "based on inadequate data, and updated as more data emerges"?

(that's a rhetorical question I guess).  Models are based on data.  Their purpose is to fit all the existing data to make predictions.

 

The peak jumping forward for Florida, means that social distancing and quarantining of fleeing NY'ers appears to be more effective than originally predicted, which is Good News for Florida. 

 

The point is that states "affected by this in a small way" (and regions of states affected in a small way), all have cases, and many of these states/areas are not contact tracing and testing broadly at this point.  If enough infections are still circulating, the testing rate is low, and social distancing restrictions are lifted too soon, there's a significant chance the infections will surge.  That's just how it works in general with epidemic disease, and in particular it's how it's been working with this specific disease: "oh, we're not affected so badly, only a few cases, we don't need no stinkin' economy dinkin' restrictions"...then BAM.

 

Are there enough infections still circulating in these states?  I guess we'll all see what happens if "they" will be opening things up in May.  Right.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 hours ago, John in Jax said:

I've been watching the "models" very closely over the past month, and they continue to be wildly inaccurate (I've been checking the npr.org site daily). In fact, just a couple days ago, they were predicting that Florida's peak day would be on April 27, and just NOW I checked it, and the new date is May 6! So a jump of NINE days forward! WTH!? Also, still, as of today, no sick person in all of the USA has been denied a hospital bed or a ventilator (if needed).

 

As far as FL goes though, it would not surprise me if the total deaths jump to put the state in the number 3 position behind NY & Conn (the latter is what the models are saying right now), because well, we have a TON of OLD people living in this state...we might even be the state with the most "old people" in the USA.

 

But I guess we'll all see what happens. Y'all surely realize that there are plenty of states that have been affected by this in a very small way, and that they will be opening things up in May, right?

the models are a joke because the data is incomplete. We don’t know how many people have actually had it, but were never tested. Combine that with the fact that many areas are reporting deaths as covid-19 related even if they didn’t run tests, and the instruction to people from local authorities to assume they have it if they have symptoms but they shouldn’t get tested, then that skews the data even more.

 

pretty good 538 article on this for a few weeks ago:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

 

 

[Sundancer]

25 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

the models are a joke because the data is incomplete. We don’t know how many people have actually had it, but were never tested. Combine that with the fact that many areas are reporting deaths as covid-19 related even if they didn’t run tests, and the instruction to people from local authorities to assume they have it if they have symptoms but they shouldn’t get tested, then that skews the data even more.

 

pretty good 538 article on this for a few weeks ago:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

 

 

Death counts are both over and undercounted (NYC is identifying 3700 more people today who died in the last month as presumed Covid but never got tested...this does not account for the big jump). Best measure we have. 
 

Today was a huge spike up. 20% higher than our highest day ever 4 days ago. No leveling on deaths yet. Bummer. Looks like we will close the day at 2400+ dead. For those tracking the IHME model, that’s 500 more than the peak it predicted happened a few days ago. That model currently predicts about 70,000 deaths by July in this wave, which would mean 50,000 more people die in the next 10 weeks. 
 

We all want to back to work but think on that number. It’s staggering. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Sundancer

[BillsFan4]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

2,349 covid deaths in the US today, another new record.

 

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, John in Jax said:

I've been watching the "models" very closely over the past month, and they continue to be wildly inaccurate (I've been checking the npr.org site daily). In fact, just a couple days ago, they were predicting that Florida's peak day would be on April 27, and just NOW I checked it, and the new date is May 6! So a jump of NINE days forward! WTH!? Also, still, as of today, no sick person in all of the USA has been denied a hospital bed or a ventilator (if needed).

 

As far as FL goes though, it would not surprise me if the total deaths jump to put the state in the number 3 position behind NY & Conn (the latter is what the models are saying right now), because well, we have a TON of OLD people living in this state...we might even be the state with the most "old people" in the USA.

 

But I guess we'll all see what happens. Y'all surely realize that there are plenty of states that have been affected by this in a very small way, and that they will be opening things up in May, right?

Good luck.

 

AZ hasn't been affected as bad as most of the country. A lot of people around here are being very casual about it.

 

Kinda scary. Glad my kids school year is officially over. I wouldn't be sending them back to school, otherwise.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

Good luck.

 

AZ hasn't been affected as bad as most of the country. A lot of people around here are being very casual about it.

 

Kinda scary. Glad my kids school year is officially over. I wouldn't be sending them back to school, otherwise.

 

I think this description of some modeling work at U of Texas was in the "facts" thread.  NYT article about it:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/us/coronavirus-county-epidemics.html

 

Fundamentally, the question they're trying to address is, with the shortfall in testing in many locales, "Is the epidemic here yet? Is staying home and limiting contact with others really worth the trouble/cost?" 

They concluded that "Even counties with just a single reported case have more than 50 percent likelihood that a sustained, undetected outbreak — an epidemic — is already taking place".  "Over all, the study finds, 70 percent of all counties in the United States — making up 94 percent of the country's population — are likely to have epidemics. The study defines an epidemic as an outbreak that grows exponentially instead of fizzling out on its own, eventually infecting a large fraction of the population. "

The point is that if planners look at an area and say "hey, it's really not too bad there in Butler County, Kansas - no reason why everyone shouldn't drop the restrictions and go back to work, they've only got 7 cases", there's actually a 90% chance there's actually an outbreak underway and relaxing restrictions will let it flare up. 

 

Maybe their model is right, maybe they're wrong. ?‍♂️

 

Here's their map.  Note the color coding for AZ

 

PS this article was published April 3rd, as was the study - I think even today, less than 2 weeks later, the map would look different as more of the counties in MO, IA, KS, etc now have multiple cases, and more counties that had no cases now have at least one.

[LeGOATski]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think this description of some modeling work at U of Texas was in the "facts" thread.  NYT article about it:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/us/coronavirus-county-epidemics.html

 

Fundamentally, the question they're trying to address is, with the shortfall in testing in many locales, "Is the epidemic here yet? Is staying home and limiting contact with others really worth the trouble/cost?" 

They concluded that "Even counties with just a single reported case have more than 50 percent likelihood that a sustained, undetected outbreak — an epidemic — is already taking place".  "Over all, the study finds, 70 percent of all counties in the United States — making up 94 percent of the country's population — are likely to have epidemics. The study defines an epidemic as an outbreak that grows exponentially instead of fizzling out on its own, eventually infecting a large fraction of the population. "

The point is that if planners look at an area and say "hey, it's really not too bad there in Butler County, Kansas - no reason why everyone shouldn't drop the restrictions and go back to work, they've only got 7 cases", there's actually a 90% chance there's actually an outbreak underway and relaxing restrictions will let it flare up. 

 

Maybe their model is right, maybe they're wrong. ?‍♂️

 

Here's their map.  Note the color coding for AZ

 

PS this article was published April 3rd, as was the study - I think even today, less than 2 weeks later, the map would look different as more of the counties in MO, IA, KS, etc now have multiple cases, and more counties that had no cases now have at least one.

Yeah, it just feels like shark infested waters around here. A few houses in my small neighborhood had Easter gatherings (5 cars around the house; a jump house in the backyard; etc). They're crazy.

 

There's now 30 confirmed cases in my zip code.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What are "all indications" that you see?

 

Here are two articles giving model projections for "peak" Covid-19.  I am giving two sources perceived as different politically, quoting the same model

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/31/model-projects-when-the-coronavirus-will-peak-in-each-state/

 

There are several things to notice here:

1) Overall, the model is based on current social distancing and restrictions remaining in place throughout May.

2) 20 states are predicted to peak April 25 or later.  These include much of the Heartland and much of the South.

3) Of those 20 states, 11 are predicted to peak after May 1, including Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, and Virginia (the last 4 are predicted to peak the 2nd week of May)

4) If you put a state into the actual model shown in the first link (scroll down a ways), note that it takes at least the same time to rise from 25% to peak, as it does to decline from peak to 25%.  In other words, for those 20 states predicted to peak April 25 or later such as Florida (May 6 predicted peak), it will take until late May to decline to the point where the death rate/hospitalizations are back to wherever they are right now - ASSUMING social distancing remains in place.

 

A return to "almost normal" while there are still active covid-19 cases in the community will produce a 2nd peak, based on experience with other epidemic disease.

 

...sadly, there is an irresponsible societal segment that has been "back to normal" from day one, the "nothing but a hoax......just another flu season" gang......the responsible societal segment will inch forward, one cautious step at a time IMO......for them and for my family, we will inch forward one cautious step at a time, hoping that our confidence gradually grows that the situation is somewhat under control and safe.....this will take months and not weeks IMO......with this NOT being a "flu like season", warmer weather ahead by most accounts is non sequitur..........

[Nervous Guy]

Now the rats are going crazy....damn you COVID-19!!!

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/starving-rats-resort-to-war-cannibalism-during-the-coronavirus-lockdown/

[Greg S]

[Back2Buff]

11 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

the models are a joke because the data is incomplete. We don’t know how many people have actually had it, but were never tested. Combine that with the fact that many areas are reporting deaths as covid-19 related even if they didn’t run tests, and the instruction to people from local authorities to assume they have it if they have symptoms but they shouldn’t get tested, then that skews the data even more.

 

pretty good 538 article on this for a few weeks ago:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

 

 

 

A friend of mine mother was experiencing some tightness in chest and got worried about having a heart attack.

 

She went to a hospital and they wouldn't do any other tests on her until the COVID-19 test results came back.  She sat in a hospital for a little over a day waiting on the results.

 

She could have died in that time period from a heart condition that could have been saved with surgery if they would have ran EKGs, Ecocardio, stress tests, etc.

 

 

[Mr Info]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

 

A friend of mine mother was experiencing some tightness in chest and got worried about having a heart attack.

 

She went to a hospital and they wouldn't do any other tests on her until the COVID-19 test results came back.  She sat in a hospital for a little over a day waiting on the results.

 

She could have died in that time period from a heart condition that could have been saved with surgery if they would have ran EKGs, Ecocardio, stress tests, etc.

 

 

Can you provide where this occurred (city & hospital)?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Nervous Guy said:

Now the rats are going crazy....damn you COVID-19!!!

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/starving-rats-resort-to-war-cannibalism-during-the-coronavirus-lockdown/

 

Oh Geez Thanks a Lot for that @Nervous Guy.  Now I'm gonna have nightmares about rats.

[Cripple Creek]

Loblaws, everything is free!!!!!

 

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-loblaws-mistakenly-left-open-on-easter-sunday-1.4895458

 

Quote

Unfortunately, closing protocols were not completed in entirety

yeah, you forgot to lock the ***** door

Edited April 15, 2020 by Cripple Creek

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

A friend of mine mother was experiencing some tightness in chest and got worried about having a heart attack.

 

She went to a hospital and they wouldn't do any other tests on her until the COVID-19 test results came back.  She sat in a hospital for a little over a day waiting on the results.

 

She could have died in that time period from a heart condition that could have been saved with surgery if they would have ran EKGs, Ecocardio, stress tests, etc.

 

I don't want to doubt your story, but I share with @Mr Info the desire for more specifics.  

These days, most EKGs are run with disposable sensors and leads, and there are blood tests for heart damage.  So while I can see not wanting to run an echocardiogram until covid-19 status is known, it would be very puzzling not to perform some basic cardiac diagnostics such as an EKG and blood tests for cardiac problems immediately, or to keep a patient of suspect cardiac disease in the hospital without performing diagnostic tests for 24 hrs.

I had cause to seek a physician appointment within the last 2 weeks in a city  where covid-19 cases were doubling every 6 days at the time.  I referred for a test involving large, stationary equipment and dye infusion to rule out serious conditions that would require immediate treatment.  In both cases, it was suggested to wear gloves and mask to the office and the test site.  My temperature was checked/screening questions asked before I was admitted, but in neither case was I tested for covid-19 nor was treatment delayed or deferred for covid-19 testing.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Loblaws, everything is free!!!!!

 

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-loblaws-mistakenly-left-open-on-easter-sunday-1.4895458

 

yeah, you forgot to lock the ***** door

 

This is just so Canadian. 

The customers put groceries back, or wrote down what they took so they could return and pay.  One called the police to report.

 

Dollars to donuts in this city (most parts of it anyway) the customers woulda loaded their carts and called all their friends to partake. 

The place would have been stripped in 2 hrs.  Lucky if it wasn't  vandalized to boot.

 

 

[Cripple Creek]

This is some interesting statisticing.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/chile-counts-those-who-died-coronavirus-recovered-because-theyre-no-longer-contagious-health-1497775

[Back2Buff]

1 hour ago, Mr Info said:

Can you provide where this occurred (city & hospital)?

 

Millard FIllmore Suburban.

16 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't want to doubt your story, but I share with @Mr Info the desire for more specifics.  

These days, most EKGs are run with disposable sensors and leads, and there are blood tests for heart damage.  So while I can see not wanting to run an echocardiogram until covid-19 status is known, it would be very puzzling not to perform some basic cardiac diagnostics such as an EKG and blood tests for cardiac problems immediately, or to keep a patient of suspect cardiac disease in the hospital without performing diagnostic tests for 24 hrs.

I had cause to seek a physician appointment within the last 2 weeks in a city  where covid-19 cases were doubling every 6 days at the time.  I referred for a test involving large, stationary equipment and dye infusion to rule out serious conditions that would require immediate treatment.  In both cases, it was suggested to wear gloves and mask to the office and the test site.  My temperature was checked/screening questions asked before I was admitted, but in neither case was I tested for covid-19 nor was treatment delayed or deferred for covid-19 testing.

 

They told her symptoms were consistent with COVID-19 so that is immediately what they assumed it was.  They segregated her and said they will proceed once the results are back.  No other tests where performed due to potential exposure.

 

I asked my sister about this (she is a nurse at a local hospital) and she said that is pretty much the protocol now.  COVID-19 assumed first, everything else 2nd (unless there is a physical injury you can see).  They call it being cautious.

 

 

They came back negative and that is when other heart related tests were performed.