DCbillsfan Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 54 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: There’s a lot here, and in order to not go too far into the weeds I’ll keep this succinct. If we simply narrow the scope for the purpose of affixing a percentage of “immediate contributions” to a sample space of LBs, we can at least have a measuring stick. Suppose we use the 2019 draft, round 5. 12 LBs selected. You can easily argue that 7 of those guys did nothing (for various reasons). You can also very reasonably argue that 4 became starters early on as rookies (if not immediately) and played well. Up for debate is how Van Ginkel would’ve fared had he not started the season on IR, but he sure looked the part of an NFL ‘backer in spot duty down the stretch and in his 1 start. So in that small sample space, we see just over 40% rate of contribution. Now we could easily be convinced that such a success rate is an aberration, so let’s take it back a year and look at the 2018 5th round to expand the sample set. Well, there’s some subjectivity to the analysis, but I’ll claim that 2/6 were immediate contributors, so 33%. Go back to 2017, and you’re looking at 3/6 LBs. Again, all subjective, but the idea that you’re batting in the teens percentage wise is mistaken IMO. And again, none of this is to say that Milano shouldn’t be re-signed. It’s that $12.5M for a position where help can be found more reliably than many others seems very high. I’m sure folks will disagree; that’s fine. I’ve stated my case and will let it stand. Bandit: I've read your takes and agree with you on Milano. He's a good WLB but not at $12.5 M AAV. Losing Milano would be a tough pill to swallow but I'd rather have Tre and Dawkins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 6 hours ago, HappyDays said: Zero chance he gets that kind of money from us. If we have to let Milano walk in exchange for paying a top tier pass rusher like Clowney, so be it. I like Milano a lot but he's not a necessary piece IMO. Hes absolutely a very necessary piece. He is the prototipical second LB for this system. When he wasn't in there the D was not as good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Milano seems a bit high at 12.5 million aav. I think that comes down to about 9ish million aav. White and Dawkins seem accurate. That would put White at 16.5 million aav and Dawkins at 14.5 million aav. Both guys would come in combined at 31 million aav, which is a hefty chunk of the cap but hopefully you can roll over some of the current space (20+ million) to front load those salaries and keep the team's cap healthy going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Beane will undoubtedly put a number (with some room to change) on Milano as with everyone, but that number may be higher than some here seem to believe. People can mention whomever they like as a possible Milano replacement, but Joseph has yet to play a snap in the regular season. The take "He was expected to battle for a depth linebacker position and a special teams spot, before injuring his shoulder in the final preseason game" is correct to date. People like Joe Marino who is pretty good at scouting. No Joseph hasn’t played a down yet. I bet Joseph gets a shot to show what he can do or another draft pick, way before Milano is signed to a 4 year $50 mil deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 You guys are making this cap stuff sound so complicated. Josh’s lady friend is hot. Get her a modeling contract. Josh then decides to take discounted contracts for the next 20 years while the Bills collect hardware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 4 hours ago, FLFan said: Yes we need better depth, but you do not replace a premium player with depth. They won the late round lottery with Milano and should make every attempt to keep him, instead of hoping to draft a replacement as good. Spend that draft choice where we do not already have quality starters. I just find it odd that so many fans do not seem to recognize the level of player we have. I recognize the player. But that's a lot of money to sink into the LB position between Milano and Edwards. Granted neither player leaves the field. If we use Carolina as an example they have done exactly that, sign 2 LBS to top 10 LB contracts. It likely gets done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 On 3/4/2020 at 1:31 PM, Call_Of_Ktulu said: Does signing a zone CB to a 5 year 80+ mil contract help or hurt the Bills? I feel like that contract should be 5 years 68 mil at its highest. I disagree. And, $12 million savings spread over 5 years for the first player this regime drafted and performed above expectations isn’t worth haggling over. Lock him up and continue to develop the culture in Buffalo! Encourage the correct behaviour, efforts and success with resigning our own leaders. White is the PERFECT player to start this culture with! Pay him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 It's weird to me that the Bills are 3rd in the league in available cap space and that our GM has stated that his top priority is keeping our team as in tact as possible from last year...and some people think we should probably just let Matt Milano walk. It seems to me that the Bills have the money to keep the defensive core in tact AND improve the offense, and STILL be able to afford a Josh Allen extension in a season or two. Maybe I'm crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted March 8, 2020 Share Posted March 8, 2020 On 3/3/2020 at 8:15 PM, costrovs said: How often do teams extend players that are on year 3 of their rookie contracts to long term deals? Shouldn't we be talking about this after this upcoming season? Or in 2 years if the bills do the 5th year option? For Milano and Dawkins, yes. For Tre, no. Get him done now before he has another stellar year and the price goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 hours ago, billsbackto81 said: For Milano and Dawkins, yes. For Tre, no. Get him done now before he has another stellar year and the price goes up. Completely agree. Extend Tre now and wait till year 5 to see what you have in Milano & Dawkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ForMacAdoo Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 On 3/4/2020 at 7:07 PM, DCbillsfan said: Bandit: I've read your takes and agree with you on Milano. He's a good WLB but not at $12.5 M AAV. Losing Milano would be a tough pill to swallow but I'd rather have Tre and Dawkins. This. I'd also rather have Tremaine Edmunds for the long haul. My guess is 'Maine is going to get CJ Mosley money when his time comes due. You cannot sign them all and there is no way they give crazy $$ to Milano making it impossible to extend 'Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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