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Interesting analysis of typical improvement from yr 2 to ur 3 for QB


CorkScrewHill

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Unless Allen regresses, QB will not be the position that determines the outcome of 2020 season.  If Allen plays at the same level as last year, the season will be won or lost in the next 60 days.  Beane needs to find at least two capable pass rushers, a deep threat , a rotational DT, make a decision on Ford at RT, and a back-up RB.  He has the money and the draft assets to fill all these spots.  

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12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

I think that's where we are with Allen.  The Bills took a gamble on a low-floor, high-ceiling "sport", a guy from a non-standard path.  If he ultimately succeeds, it will be on his own pace and time.

 

 

 

 

 

Good post overall; what's changed since he entered the league is that as of RIGHT NOW, his floor is much higher and his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen a bit.

 

We all know what he needs to do to reach the next level, but the positive take is that his floor has significantly risen. He's clearly not a "bust." He does too many things well to "suck."

 

What I would like to see in year 3 is.....what everyone knows we want to see.

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7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I agree with a lot of those post.  At the same point, how many teams are drafting a project qb in the top 10 and how often does it work out?  That’s always been my concern with the Allen pick.  If he becomes a high end starting qb, he is the definition of a complete outliner and the Bills are smarter than what the vast majority of history has demonstrated.  I have never questioned his work ethic or character.  But how many times have a small conference qb who wasn’t even first or 2nd team in their conference become a good NFL starting qb?  If McBean really nails this Allen pick, they should get a statue. 
 

allen is in the territory of a lot of 3rd year qbs, especially ones who play with a good to great defense.  So now we see if he’s more Russell Wilson, Brady, or Big Ben or is he’s Mitchell, Bortles, or Sanchez.  I think with our schedule this year, we should have a good indication one way or the other. 

Biscuit

 

I think you're generally right about this.  All of it.  2020 is a big year for Josh.  And if he makes it, you're right about the statue thing, too.  

 

However, I think it should be less of a surprise than you suggest.  Allen wasn't just some phenomenal star at a small school.  He was an extraordinarily gifted athlete, and there haven't been many of those to come along. Someone was going to bet on him because he had true upside.  There was nothing in his physical game that would stop him from being great.  Heart and brains is whatMcBeane bet on.  

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Good post overall; what's changed since he entered the league is that as of RIGHT NOW, his floor is much higher and his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen a bit.

 

We all know what he needs to do to reach the next level, but the positive take is that his floor has significantly risen. He's clearly not a "bust." He does too many things well to "suck."

 

What I would like to see in year 3 is.....what everyone knows we want to see.

I don't think his ceiling has fallen.  Why do you think that?  He hasn't given any signs of having maxed out in his development. I think Hapless is correct that Josh seems to be doing it at his own pace. 

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I think everyone's story is unique.  I don't think that projections based on several other unique stories is a very reliable way to evaluate a qb's promise.  

 

Yes, McBeane bet on Allen's heart and brains.  As of now, it still looks like a smart bet. 

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4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Biscuit

 

I think you're generally right about this.  All of it.  2020 is a big year for Josh.  And if he makes it, you're right about the statue thing, too.  

 

However, I think it should be less of a surprise than you suggest.  Allen wasn't just some phenomenal star at a small school.  He was an extraordinarily gifted athlete, and there haven't been many of those to come along. Someone was going to bet on him because he had true upside.  There was nothing in his physical game that would stop him from being great.  Heart and brains is whatMcBeane bet on.  

I don't think his ceiling has fallen.  Why do you think that?  He hasn't given any signs of having maxed out in his development. I think Hapless is correct that Josh seems to be doing it at his own pace. 

Not here to drag Josh, but the reason I say his ceiling APPEARS to have fallen is that we really haven't seen those super prolific performances you see from the top guys. We haven't seen that performance in which he's slinging the rock all over the place. Doesn't mean he can't or won't get there, but there's your answer.

 

Like I said, his FLOOR is significantly higher, so that's the good news.

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Guess the Browns and Jets should cut their QBs ASAP then. 
 

I mean, what’s the implication here, that a QB simply is who he is after year 2? Should we ignore all of the times when that’s not true like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, or a half dozen others we could all name pretty readily?

 

What’s so wrong with taking player evaluations on a case-by-case basis?

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This analysis is "interesting" only if you completely ignore everything that happened in a guy's playing career leading up to his first NFL season.

 

Are all QBs at the same level of development entering the NFL?  Do all QBs receive the same coaching/talent/organization to work with?  Do all QBs possess the same motivational drive to get better/be great?

 

What a waste of a thread.

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10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Guess the Browns and Jets should cut their QBs ASAP then. 
 

I mean, what’s the implication here, that a QB simply is who he is after year 2? Should we ignore all of the times when that’s not true like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Garoppolo, Alex Smith, or a half dozen others we could all name pretty readily?

 

What’s so wrong with taking player evaluations on a case-by-case basis?

I'm with you.  I think it's hard to be sure about QBs until they're further into their careers, except, of course, for those who aren't getting it done at all.  Allen doesn't look to me to be a guy who is very close to peaking.   

 

BUT - this argument about QBs happens over and over again, and it is true that there are very few examples of guys making it late in their careers without having had some early success.  Brees, Brady and Rodgers all had more bench time than Allen, and they all had at least pone early season where they showed more than Allen has shown.   So when LSHMeab says to me that he thinks Allen's ceiling is lower than it was, it makes some sense.   Every year a guy hasn't lit it up makes it less likely that he will light it up down the road.    

 

On the other hand, you have a guy like Tannehill, who's a similar case.   Big talent but not much performance in college (albeit for a different reason).   First two seasons in the NFL similar to Allen's.  Then four seasons of unspectacular but solid performance.   Season seven, he rises to near the top of the league.   It's easy to see Allen on that kind of trajectory, except I think he has better coaching and a better team around him, so it won't take seven seasons.  

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5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm with you.  I think it's hard to be sure about QBs until they're further into their careers, except, of course, for those who aren't getting it done at all.  Allen doesn't look to me to be a guy who is very close to peaking.   

 

BUT - this argument about QBs happens over and over again, and it is true that there are very few examples of guys making it late in their careers without having had some early success.  Brees, Brady and Rodgers all had more bench time than Allen, and they all had at least pone early season where they showed more than Allen has shown.   So when LSHMeab says to me that he thinks Allen's ceiling is lower than it was, it makes some sense.   Every year a guy hasn't lit it up makes it less likely that he will light it up down the road.    

 

On the other hand, you have a guy like Tannehill, who's a similar case.   Big talent but not much performance in college (albeit for a different reason).   First two seasons in the NFL similar to Allen's.  Then four seasons of unspectacular but solid performance.   Season seven, he rises to near the top of the league.   It's easy to see Allen on that kind of trajectory, except I think he has better coaching and a better team around him, so it won't take seven seasons.  


What really irks me is how people want to complicate what’s a really simple situation.

 

Ask yourself 3 questions:

1) Does Allen have an NFL skill set?

2) Has he shown clear and obvious improvements in most/all the areas of deficiency identified when he entered the league?

3) Is there any reason to believe that he will or won’t continue to improve from where he is now?

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From my observations I think it’s fair to say that QB’s typically make their biggest growth development from year one to two.  They finally get one year under their belt, they come into the second season as the unquestioned starter and that invaluable experience.

 

Josh I believe will experience similar levels of growth from year to two for a variety of reasons.  One, being that he truly was a raw product coming in and much of his growth that he has experienced has been his improved mechanics and basic decision making.   The main reason why he was still playing at a competitive level during his rookie year was due to his will to win games and sheer raw talent.  
 

This past year he reigned some of that in but he played smarter football.  There is a very specific focus this offseason and that is to improve his deep pass.   Josh by all accounts is someone who is extremely self-motivated to improve and I suspect that he will.   When you have someone as competitive, intelligent, willing to learn and o what it takes couples with his elite level raw talent then that usually portends to continued improvement.

 

i would be shocked if he didn’t.

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23 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


What really irks me is how people want to complicate what’s a really simple situation.

 

Ask yourself 3 questions:

1) Does Allen have an NFL skill set?

2) Has he shown clear and obvious improvements in most/all the areas of deficiency identified when he entered the league?

3) Is there any reason to believe that he will or won’t continue to improve from where he is now?

That's pretty much how I feel.  It's true that every season that goes by without him being a top QB makes it less likely, statistically, that he WILL be a top QB, but I think that thinking applies much more after he's been playing in the league for 4-5 seasons.  Right now, he's trending upward, he's not at a point where his body should be slowing down (in fact, he's probably just coming into his athletic peak), his football knowledge, like ending young QB's, still is growing, and the quality of the team around him is improving.   All of those things suggest that Allen's best days are ahead of him. 

 

I expect him to make another jump in 2020.   His completion percentage should climb into the low 60s, and his passer rating will rise to around the league average - low 90s.   Two years after that he'll be a solid top 10 QB.   Why am I so conficent?   His arm and body, his competitiveness and work ethic, and the team that's being built around him.   He'll get better and better protection, he'll have a better running back room, he'll have better receivers.   It's complementary football - he'll get better, everything around him will get better, and there will improve his performance significantly.    

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52 minutes ago, eball said:

This analysis is "interesting" only if you completely ignore everything that happened in a guy's playing career leading up to his first NFL season.

 

Are all QBs at the same level of development entering the NFL?  Do all QBs receive the same coaching/talent/organization to work with?  Do all QBs possess the same motivational drive to get better/be great?

 

What a waste of a thread.

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college?  I would submit that coming into his third season in the league, it’s time to judge him on his results.  There are no bonus points awarded to players who were considered “projects” coming out of college.  Tie breakers aren’t awarded to teams with the most “raw” prospect under center.  The past 2 MVPs were both won by second year QBs who were considered projects as well.  Today, they are the guys who defensive coordinators know that even if their teams do everything right, Lamar or Pat could still put up 400 yards and 4 TDs.  So when is it okay to judge Allen not on how bad he “wants to be great” or on his “ceiling” or whatever else people want to fall back on?  At some point you are who the back of your football card says you are.

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12 minutes ago, Billl said:

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college?  I would submit that coming into his third season in the league, it’s time to judge him on his results.  There are no bonus points awarded to players who were considered “projects” coming out of college.  Tie breakers aren’t awarded to teams with the most “raw” prospect under center.  The past 2 MVPs were both won by second year QBs who were considered projects as well.  Today, they are the guys who defensive coordinators know that even if their teams do everything right, Lamar or Pat could still put up 400 yards and 4 TDs.  So when is it okay to judge Allen not on how bad he “wants to be great” or on his “ceiling” or whatever else people want to fall back on?  At some point you are who the back of your football card says you are.


I still ? at people that think Mahomes and Jackson—both of whom played 3 seasons for current/former NFL HCs in college—can be compared to Allen in the “project” department.

 

Also, if Allen is “who the back of his football card says he is”, then I’ll go with “10-5 as a starter and 6th among QBs in TDs” :thumbsup:

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On 2/29/2020 at 9:58 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

My take on it overall is the same as my "take" on all the Allen pre-draft stuff, where analytics perfectly predicted Allen was a "joke of a first round draft pick" (I think that was Sam Monson of PFF who said that).  When you have a basis set built from guys with particular characteristics (say, all top recruits coming out of HS, all started for big-time programs) and you have a guy to whom the unstated basis set doesn't apply, most bets are probably off. 

 

 

 

This is the core reason we continue to have negative articles about Allen.  This is also why so called "experts" continue to over analyze Allen looking for every little flaw as vindication for what they said when he got drafted. 

 

In many ways their professional reputations depend on Allen sucking.  To overcome this Allen will have to produce on the order of what Mahomes produced which is not going to happen with the Bill's current offensive talent.

 

Allen IMO is already a solid NFL QB.  He has much to work on but there is no reason based on his last 2 seasons to think he doesn't have the capacity and will to keep improving.  We know for a fact that his floor has risen substantially since he was drafted and his ceiling still remains very high.

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Billl said:

At what point does it stop mattering what a guy did or did not do in college? 

At some point, but not after two seasons.  

 

It takes multiple years to learn to play quarterback.   They're all more or less equal coming out of high school.  Five years of college and pros vs. four years of college and pros is a meaningful difference.   Quality of coaching and program is also a meaningful difference.   Half of Allen's experience so far was at Wyoming.   More than half of Darnold's experience was at USC.   That's a meaningful difference.  

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