CorkScrewHill Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2. Josh will need to beat the average improvement to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Just a thought... I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Junction Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) Nice knowing that Tim Tebow is skewing the average accuracy. Edited February 29, 2020 by Buffalo Junction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 52 minutes ago, folz said: Just a thought... I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline. 3 year starters from pro style systems picking up the NFL faster than a 25 game junior project from Wyoming coming into a dumpster fire offense? Wild! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessTruster Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Give him Megatron and yeah, Josh's stats will improve dramatically. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 Look, we all know that Allen needs to “clean up his game” that’s a given, and I think he will do that, (not expecting perfect). He has this up coming, and next season to cement his status on this team imo. It is my contention that if just the catchable dropped passes are cleaned up by our pass catchers, (not expecting perfect) then the completion percentage, yards per attempt, and TD averages all go up to a point of respectability, and we win more games. This one thing, simple in concept, but harder in reality to fix, but it needs to be done, so WE fans can celebrate more often!! ??? Go Bills!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 10 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2. Josh will need to beat the average improvement to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020 I see it has a recent date, but I'm pretty sure essentially this data was discussed about a month ago, perhaps based upon an earlier version of the article? Or perhaps I'm confusing it with his loop back to assess his year 1 to year 2 model, which you can find here My biggest thing is I wish the author would give us his basis set of 27 players. I would also like to understand how he handled a QB such as Pat Mahomes, who sat his entire rookie season and was MVP the first season he started (his 2nd year). From "zero" to "hero" would be a pretty huge jump I went back to his original article and he doesn't give much in the way of details. Statistics almost always mean something, but if the right comparison group isn't chosen, predictive models built off them may or may not mean what one thinks. For perspective on why that's important, there were actually 117 QB drafted between 2008 and 2017. If one looks only at QB who threw at least 150 passes (50 passes x 3 years), that's still 61 QB. Now he qualifies 50 passes/year "in the first 3 years of their career" and whittles down to 27, but since even a kind of meh starting QB can easily throw 50 passes in 1 or 2 games, it seems to me that he may be including a bunch of mediocre, and unsuccessful QB. When I look at QB who started at least 30 games, that alone whittles it to 30 guys out of 117 - but maybe a different group than his 27 guys I'd just like to better understand what he's doing. My take on it overall is the same as my "take" on all the Allen pre-draft stuff, where analytics perfectly predicted Allen was a "joke of a first round draft pick" (I think that was Sam Monson of PFF who said that). When you have a basis set built from guys with particular characteristics (say, all top recruits coming out of HS, all started for big-time programs) and you have a guy to whom the unstated basis set doesn't apply, most bets are probably off. I think that's where we are with Allen. The Bills took a gamble on a low-floor, high-ceiling "sport", a guy from a non-standard path. If he ultimately succeeds, it will be on his own pace and time. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorkScrewHill Posted February 29, 2020 Author Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I see it has a recent date, but I'm pretty sure essentially this data was discussed about a month ago, perhaps based upon an earlier version of the article? Or perhaps I'm confusing it with his loop back to assess his year 1 to year 2 model, which you can find here My biggest thing is I wish the author would give us his basis set of 27 players. I would also like to understand how he handled a QB such as Pat Mahomes, who sat his entire rookie season and was MVP the first season he started (his 2nd year). I went back to his original article and he doesn't give much in the way of details. For perspective on why that's important, there were actually 117 QB drafted between 2008 and 2017. If one looks only at QB who threw at least 150 passes (50 passes x 3 years), that's still 61 QB. Now he qualifies 50 passes/year "in the first 3 years of their career" and whittles down to 27, but since even a kind of meh starting QB can easily throw 50 passes in 1 or 2 games, it seems to me that he may be including a bunch of mediocre, and unsuccessful QB. I'd just like to better understand what he's doing. Statistics almost always mean something, but if the right comparison group isn't chosen, predictive models may or may not mean what one likes. Yes .. I posted the year 1 vs year 2 article which in general josh met or exceeded the expectations. I think the point made above by @folz does give one hope that Josh can be a positive outlier. The dude just wants to be great! I think in the end it is just another data point that can help guide expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister Defense Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said: It really shows the real improvement ( with Stafford as an outlier) is between years 1 and 2. Josh will need to beat the average improvement to be anything other than a very average QB per the analysis https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2020/2/28/21155523/how-big-of-a-leap-should-buffalo-bills-expect-josh-allen-to-make-in-2020 Nonsense, as Allen showed many signs this past year he is already not a "very average quarterback". Edited February 29, 2020 by Mister Defense 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 14 hours ago, folz said: Just a thought... I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline. Not many of those QBs had Josh’s ceiling, I can garauntee that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 14 hours ago, folz said: Just a thought... I wonder how many guys on that list were considered somewhat of a "project" like Josh was coming out. I'm just thinking that if a lot of those other QBs were more "pro ready" coming out of college (played for bigger schools/better competition, had better stats, more polished), it might make sense that their biggest leap would be from year one to year two. They already know how to play QB, and they've been drilled over and over on their mechanics. The good ones just need a year or so to acclimate to the pro game (its schemes and speed, reading defense, etc.). So, maybe Josh will be an outlier and take another sizable jump between year two and year three simply because he had more to learn overall. He had farther to go. So where other guys' learning curve starts to level off, Josh's may still be on an incline. I agree with a lot of those post. At the same point, how many teams are drafting a project qb in the top 10 and how often does it work out? That’s always been my concern with the Allen pick. If he becomes a high end starting qb, he is the definition of a complete outliner and the Bills are smarter than what the vast majority of history has demonstrated. I have never questioned his work ethic or character. But how many times have a small conference qb who wasn’t even first or 2nd team in their conference become a good NFL starting qb? If McBean really nails this Allen pick, they should get a statue. allen is in the territory of a lot of 3rd year qbs, especially ones who play with a good to great defense. So now we see if he’s more Russell Wilson, Brady, or Big Ben or is he’s Mitchell, Bortles, or Sanchez. I think with our schedule this year, we should have a good indication one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 I really don’t think Allen is nearly as bad as some people think... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said: Not many of those QBs had Josh’s ceiling, I can garauntee that. The term ceiling is so overrated. What does it even mean? It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high. “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. 1 minute ago, whorlnut said: I really don’t think Allen is nearly as bad as some people think... I don’t think most people think he’s bad. I think he’s definitely proven he’s a nfl qb. I think the main question is whether he will ever been consistent enough to be a top end starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The term ceiling is so overrated. What does it even mean? It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high. “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but... 2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: The term ceiling is so overrated. What does it even mean? It’s why scrubs like Christian Hackenberg and Jake Locker get drafted high. “Ceilings” make teams do a lot of dumb things. I don’t think most people think he’s bad. I think he’s definitely proven he’s a nfl qb. I think the main question is whether he will ever been consistent enough to be a top end starter. Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, whorlnut said: It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but... Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. Wait a top 10 pick qb is getting scrutinized? Welcome to the nfl. It’s only going to get worse because with the league rules, young qbs are expected to succeed right away. Teams need to see it right away or they move on. Mahomes also had 99 tds and over 10,000 total yards in his last 2 seasons of college. As time passes, Mahomes lasting as long as he did looks ever dumber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Wait a top 10 pick qb is getting scrutinized? Welcome to the nfl. It’s only going to get worse because with the league rules, young qbs are expected to succeed right away. Teams need to see it right away or they move on. Mahomes also had 99 tds and over 10,000 total yards in his last 2 seasons of college. As time passes, Mahomes lasting as long as he did looks ever dumber. He played in a system that is conducive for big numbers for a qb. By this logic, guys like Graham Harrell should have been stars... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, whorlnut said: He played in a system that is conducive for big numbers for a qb. By this logic, guys like Graham Harrell should have been stars... They didn’t put up his number with superior physical tools. The second Andy Reid moved up for him, everyone should have known it was a great pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, whorlnut said: It’s also what got Mahomes drafted so high. Lots of pundits were mocking the Chiefs over that pick. Of course in hindsight they got it right, but... Haha. Lots of people think he’s bad. His every move is scrutinized and many in the media look for anything to support their pre-draft analysis. Most high ceiling guys don’t make it. I think that has more to do with poor coaching and player development than it does the player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 This is probably one of the most depressing things I’ve read the last 10 years...thanks...? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Josh's background at Wyoming wasn't typical so why expect him to have typical progression? Anyway, each QB is unique and progress in their own individual way. Jim Plunkett, for example, was a mediocre NFL starter until he went to Oakland and led them to the Super Bowl where he was named the MVP. I'm not sure how good Josh will become I'm more hopeful than afraid about next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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