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How do Bills' past moves foretell the WR pick?

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Now that the mock season is in full swing, I'm trying to figure out how Bills will approach the WR position based on what they've done in last 3 years and also guessing on what type of WR is preferred by the offensive design and most importantly the comfort level of the QB.     I don't think you can separate the last two from the decision making, and that can make a huge difference in the draft selection, even though one player may have better measurables.  It's almost like deciding on a quality 4-3 DE to play in a 3-4 alignment.

 

--

 

In the first year, the regime prioritized size over speed in filling out the WR roster, starting with the ill-fated Boldin signing, adding Holmes & Tate, drafting Zay and trading for Matthews.  The midseason trade for Benjamin and the Logan Thomas experiment solidified the emphasis on size.  Of course by then, everyone realized that lack of speed was killing the offense, and thus the late season pick up of Deontae Thompson.   Part of the offensive mismatch was due to the ill fit between Dennison and the rest of the offense, but the personnel were ill-suited to execute the game plan, whatever it was.

 

Next offseason with a new OC and a raw QB, Bills tried to upgrade the WR speed, but couldn't land anyone notable in FA because of the uncertain QB situation.  The additions of Foster & McKenzie helped stretch the field, but they were still average playmakers.  It's also a tough year to analyze given the revolving door at QB, yet Zay & Benjamin had the most targets on the team.

 

In 2019, speed and elusiveness was prioritized with Beasley and Brown additions, and the offense picked up a step, with those two picking up far more receiving targets than what Bills QB threw to a pair of WRs in prior 2 seasons.  Yet the O was still ranked near the bottom.   

 

So a quick glance at the above would suggest that Bills would continue to prioritize speed in FA and draft.   But maybe not.

 

If we take a look at rumors around 2019 trade deadline, Bills appeared to be in the market for Green, but no so much for Sanders.  Then came the Olsen courting last week.  Another hint was provided by the number of targets Duke received in the handful games he played.  He didn't see a lot of snaps vs Titans, but received nearly as much looks as Brown & Beasley.  In the last two games however, he was by far and away the leading target from the QB.  The Jets game was probably an anomaly because Brown & Beasley sat, but it could have been a precursor for the playoffs in getting a bigger receiver more involved.

 

Long story short, my hunch is that the Bills FO is still looking to prioritize size over pure speed, because they think it's a better fit for the QB and the offense.

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Imo, having a mix of receiver types is best,  it gives the offense more versatility when game planning opponents, and opponents have more to be concerned with when playing you. 

 

Go Bills!!!

Edited by Don Otreply
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19 minutes ago, GG said:

Now that the mock season is in full swing, I'm trying to figure out how Bills will approach the WR position based on what they've done in last 3 years and also guessing on what type of WR is preferred by the offensive design and most importantly the comfort level of the QB.     I don't think you can separate the last two from the decision making, and that can make a huge difference in the draft selection, even though one player may have better measurables.  It's almost like deciding on a quality 4-3 DE to play in a 3-4 alignment.

 

--

 

In the first year, the regime prioritized size over speed in filling out the WR roster, starting with the ill-fated Boldin signing, adding Holmes & Tate, drafting Zay and trading for Matthews.  The midseason trade for Benjamin and the Logan Thomas experiment solidified the emphasis on size.  Of course by then, everyone realized that lack of speed was killing the offense, and thus the late season pick up of Deontae Thompson.   Part of the offensive mismatch was due to the ill fit between Dennison and the rest of the offense, but the personnel were ill-suited to execute the game plan, whatever it was.

 

Next offseason with a new OC and a raw QB, Bills tried to upgrade the WR speed, but couldn't land anyone notable in FA because of the uncertain QB situation.  The additions of Foster & McKenzie helped stretch the field, but they were still average playmakers.  It's also a tough year to analyze given the revolving door at QB, yet Zay & Benjamin had the most targets on the team.

 

In 2019, speed and elusiveness was prioritized with Beasley and Brown additions, and the offense picked up a step, with those two picking up far more receiving targets than what Bills QB threw to a pair of WRs in prior 2 seasons.  Yet the O was still ranked near the bottom.   

 

So a quick glance at the above would suggest that Bills would continue to prioritize speed in FA and draft.   But maybe not.

 

If we take a look at rumors around 2019 trade deadline, Bills appeared to be in the market for Green, but no so much for Sanders.  Then came the Olsen courting last week.  Another hint was provided by the number of targets Duke received in the handful games he played.  He didn't see a lot of snaps vs Titans, but received nearly as much looks as Brown & Beasley.  In the last two games however, he was by far and away the leading target from the QB.  The Jets game was probably an anomaly because Brown & Beasley sat, but it could have been a precursor for the playoffs in getting a bigger receiver more involved.

 

Long story short, my hunch is that the Bills FO is still looking to prioritize size over pure speed, because they think it's a better fit for the QB and the offense.


Good post.

Matt Miller's "team by team draft nuggets" article today -- though it seemed to be possibly little more than speculation -- did note that Miller has heard that the Bills are in on "big guys" like Bryan Edwards and Donovan Peoples-Jones. They've also spoken with Chase Claypool. Then again, they've talked to just about EVERY WR at the combine, so take everything with a grain of salt.

At the end of the day, I expect them to come out of the draft with two wide receivers: a "size guy" as well as a burner or a McKenzie-style gadget player.

Edited by Logic

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I think they want more speed and explosiveness:

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/25/brandon-beane-buffalo-bills-wide-receivers-nfl-draft-combine-analysis-edge-rushers/

 

Beane acknowledged the need for more big plays.

 

“John Brown probably gave us our most explosive plays, and Dawson had a couple explosive plays, and Devin had a few,” Beane said, referring to Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary. “We didn’t have enough explosive plays. The less explosive plays, the more 10-, 12-play drives you’ve got to have. What makes those hard is one penalty sets you back. All of a sudden you get a holding and you’re in second and 20 it becomes hard to get a first down. That’s where you saw the Chiefs have a Tyreek Hill, and he takes it to the house in one play. You’re always looking for explosive guys.”

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Think of it this way...

 

On Buffalo’s offense, who do you look at and say “boy, if I don’t commit a significant portion of my game plan to stopping [       ], he’s going to kill me”?

 

The only answer is Allen.

 

Good offenses have multiple guys that you say that about.

 

The Bills don’t need a size guy, speed guy, etc; they need multiple players that opponents have to make specific, concerted efforts to stop every time they’re in the field.

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33 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Think of it this way...

 

On Buffalo’s offense, who do you look at and say “boy, if I don’t commit a significant portion of my game plan to stopping [       ], he’s going to kill me”?

 

The only answer is Allen.

 

Good offenses have multiple guys that you say that about.

 

The Bills don’t need a size guy, speed guy, etc; they need multiple players that opponents have to make specific, concerted efforts to stop every time they’re in the field.

Exactly! The Chiefs were the perfect example of this.

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8 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said:

Exactly! The Chiefs were the perfect example of this.


Chiefs have Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams in addition to Mahomes.

 

You can say the same for teams like New Orleans, Minnesota, Seattle, LA Rams, Dallas, even Baltimore with Ingram and their 3-headed TE attack. All of them have multiple weapons that defenses need to account for aside from their QB.

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1 hour ago, GG said:

Long story short, my hunch is that the Bills FO is still looking to prioritize size over pure speed, because they think it's a better fit for the QB and the offense.

I wish we could have both like a 6'4 229 lbs. WR who runs something like a 4.33 40 yard dash.  It would be even better if we could steal that said player in the 2nd round.

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20 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I wish we could have both like a 6'4 229 lbs. WR who runs something like a 4.33 40 yard dash.  It would be even better if we could steal that said player in the 2nd round.

So you're talking about the Aaron Judge of football? You know, he WAS a 5 star football recruit out of HS.  

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13 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

So you're talking about the Aaron Judge of football? You know, he WAS a 5 star football recruit out of HS.  

DK Metcalf

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Think of it this way...

 

On Buffalo’s offense, who do you look at and say “boy, if I don’t commit a significant portion of my game plan to stopping [       ], he’s going to kill me”?

 

The only answer is Allen.

 

Good offenses have multiple guys that you say that about.

 

The Bills don’t need a size guy, speed guy, etc; they need multiple players that opponents have to make specific, concerted efforts to stop every time they’re in the field.


Lee Smith but the Bills are the ones saying “he’s gonna kill me” 

21 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

DK Metcalf


I think He plays for Seattle. Do you have another option? 

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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bills-gm-brandon-beane-falcons-gm-thomas-dimitroff-join-stf/id1227006689?i=1000463331888

 

Some great stuff in there on the draft by Beane

 

Starts just after 37:00 minutes. 

 

Spent money on oline and drafted Ford, brought in some WR and TE to help Josh, what else is next to help him?

- "Josh needed protection, running the ball is a QB best friend ,  if you aren't good up front it's hard to execute .  We want to continue to help up front. Not saying we've arrived there, we need to continue to add weapons. Singletary  came on this year but you always need multiple running backs. 

 

Receivers, tight ends, I like to call them touchdown makers, guys that can get the ball in their hands, to take the pressure off Josh, so he doesn't feel like he has to make every play himself, let me dump this little 6 yard hitch route, have the WR make the guy miss and take it 50"

 

Some people say potential  historical  WR class, your thoughts on depth?

- " You can tell already  now that everyone has declared  , this class coming into the Senior Bowl  is pretty talented. Senior bowl is great so you can focus on them, then at combine undeclassmen  show up .  WR is a fun position to go through this spring. "

 

You've been aggressive  to move up for guys, is that your MO as a GM? 

- " Definitely ,  I let the board tell me what decisions we need to make and if a guy is sticking out above everybody  else on the board and continues to fall, with Edwards ,  if we had not got josh, Edwards would have been the guy we took at 12. When he got to 14 Packers were on the clock, man we got to start calling  , Oakland wouldn't do it they had already traded down and wanted to pick at 15 , then we found Baltimore who was willing to do it. We felt the value was there. So when the value meets a big hole that you got, why not be aggressive ". 

 

 

 

The WR that fit that mold best are Jeudy,  Ruggs (round 1), Aiyuk (round 1 - 2), Reagor (Round 2), 

Edited by DJB
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2 hours ago, GG said:

Now that the mock season is in full swing, I'm trying to figure out how Bills will approach the WR position based on what they've done in last 3 years and also guessing on what type of WR is preferred by the offensive design and most importantly the comfort level of the QB.     I don't think you can separate the last two from the decision making, and that can make a huge difference in the draft selection, even though one player may have better measurables.  It's almost like deciding on a quality 4-3 DE to play in a 3-4 alignment.

 

--

 

In the first year, the regime prioritized size over speed in filling out the WR roster, starting with the ill-fated Boldin signing, adding Holmes & Tate, drafting Zay and trading for Matthews.  The midseason trade for Benjamin and the Logan Thomas experiment solidified the emphasis on size.  Of course by then, everyone realized that lack of speed was killing the offense, and thus the late season pick up of Deontae Thompson.   Part of the offensive mismatch was due to the ill fit between Dennison and the rest of the offense, but the personnel were ill-suited to execute the game plan, whatever it was.

 

Next offseason with a new OC and a raw QB, Bills tried to upgrade the WR speed, but couldn't land anyone notable in FA because of the uncertain QB situation.  The additions of Foster & McKenzie helped stretch the field, but they were still average playmakers.  It's also a tough year to analyze given the revolving door at QB, yet Zay & Benjamin had the most targets on the team.

 

In 2019, speed and elusiveness was prioritized with Beasley and Brown additions, and the offense picked up a step, with those two picking up far more receiving targets than what Bills QB threw to a pair of WRs in prior 2 seasons.  Yet the O was still ranked near the bottom.   

 

So a quick glance at the above would suggest that Bills would continue to prioritize speed in FA and draft.   But maybe not.

 

If we take a look at rumors around 2019 trade deadline, Bills appeared to be in the market for Green, but no so much for Sanders.  Then came the Olsen courting last week.  Another hint was provided by the number of targets Duke received in the handful games he played.  He didn't see a lot of snaps vs Titans, but received nearly as much looks as Brown & Beasley.  In the last two games however, he was by far and away the leading target from the QB.  The Jets game was probably an anomaly because Brown & Beasley sat, but it could have been a precursor for the playoffs in getting a bigger receiver more involved.

 

Long story short, my hunch is that the Bills FO is still looking to prioritize size over pure speed, because they think it's a better fit for the QB and the offense.

We can look at Carolina’s previous WR’s too. Funchess etc. Those boys like big WR’s.

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


Chiefs have Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams in addition to Mahomes.

 

You can say the same for teams like New Orleans, Minnesota, Seattle, LA Rams, Dallas, even Baltimore with Ingram and their 3-headed TE attack. All of them have multiple weapons that defenses need to account for aside from their QB.

Agree 100% Teams that have only one or two effective weapons are less likely to control the ball, make plays and score often as it's easy for defenses to double-team and shut down the one or two players on offense. It also helps having multiple weapons in case of an injury, as it won't completely shut down an offense. 

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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


Chiefs have Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams in addition to Mahomes.

 

You can say the same for teams like New Orleans, Minnesota, Seattle, LA Rams, Dallas, even Baltimore with Ingram and their 3-headed TE attack. All of them have multiple weapons that defenses need to account for aside from their QB.

 

...not much OBD could have done IMO in 2017 (pre-Beane).......2018 (i think) had cap restrictions as well as multiple holes, so not sure how to grade that year.....2019 opened up as far as cap but still with holes to fill.....yet we still made the playoffs....now on to 2020......perhaps one of THE more lucrative WR classes in recent memory (Jeremiah quote was, "perhaps the fastest in history"..) and a boatload of money, I'd say previous years should not have much bearing but this year needs to be a home run......you folks "fill in the blanks" with names as I do not get to see college ball...also, with this WR class, is a FA signing still a supplemental priority?......

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I just hope they choose a WR early b.c i don't trust them to get a guy they think might be good. I want one where all the people look at it and go "If he isn't good then I won't blame the GM"

 

No third round WRs....

Edited by Hardhatharry
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1 minute ago, Hardhatharry said:

I just hope they choose a WR early b.c i don't trust them to get a guy they think light be good. I want one where all the people look at it and go "If he isn't good then I won't blame the GM"

 

No third round WRs....

 

...so if, IF McBeane does go WR in the 1st, should we expect the "WTF A WR (Sammy time) In The 1st Gang" to resurface?....OR...has McBeane earned his stripes knowing what the hell he is doing versus his predecessors??.....stay tuned............

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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


Chiefs have Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Williams in addition to Mahomes.

 

You can say the same for teams like New Orleans, Minnesota, Seattle, LA Rams, Dallas, even Baltimore with Ingram and their 3-headed TE attack. All of them have multiple weapons that defenses need to account for aside from their QB.

Minus Watkins. He's an average WR that can randomly have a good game, but game plans will be focused on the other players mentioned.

1 hour ago, Hardhatharry said:

I just hope they choose a WR early b.c i don't trust them to get a guy they think light be good. I want one where all the people look at it and go "If he isn't good then I won't blame the GM"

 

No third round WRs....

Why not both? Draft a guy high and draft one later on as well.

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2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

DK Metcalf

Damned good at what he can do and is a weapon to be sure, but he is limited. Personally, I’d want more versatility. That’s not a knock on Metcalf, just a preference for one that offers more scheme flexibility.

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1 hour ago, MJS said:

Minus Watkins. He's an average WR that can randomly have a good game, but game plans will be focused on the other players mentioned.

Why not both? Draft a guy high and draft one later on as well.


Nope. I promise that teams think about stopping him.

 

Because when they don’t, things happen like what happened against Richard Sherman in the Super Bowl.

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5 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Think of it this way...

 

On Buffalo’s offense, who do you look at and say “boy, if I don’t commit a significant portion of my game plan to stopping [       ], he’s going to kill me”?

 

The only answer is Allen.

 

Good offenses have multiple guys that you say that about.

 

The Bills don’t need a size guy, speed guy, etc; they need multiple players that opponents have to make specific, concerted efforts to stop every time they’re in the field.

 

Yes they need the best guy. Bills fans are obsessed with a bigger receiver. But just get the best guy out there. 

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Let’s go back to the late 80s and compare to what’s available now. I think that would be a great place to start. 

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I still believe a TE that can be a consistent outlet is a huge need and unless Knox learns to catch it's still a huge need.

 

The other problem is rookie WRs are not known to blow the doors off. It can and does happen but they need adjustment periods. I still think we get an Aghalor to go with our new WR we grab.

 

And just as I write this I can just FEEL the satanic urge at 1BD to pick a CB in the 1st.

Edited by BigBillsFan
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7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


Nope. I promise that teams think about stopping him.

 

Because when they don’t, things happen like what happened against Richard Sherman in the Super Bowl.

Just like they think about stopping every offensive player. He doesn't need special preparation or focus. He's an average WR.

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7 minutes ago, MJS said:

Just like they think about stopping every offensive player. He doesn't need special preparation or focus. He's an average WR.


An average WR that lead the best offense in football in receiving yards in the playoffs?

 

An average WR that managed over 1,000 yards on less than 100 targets with Tyrod Taylor at QB?

 

He may not be worth his $21M cap hit, but an average WR3 he’s not.

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