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Draft hypothetical - all needs adequately filled


BarleyNY

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1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Since the universe of available Free Agents is rather small can you tell us who these stud signings are before we go wandering off into Fantasy Land on the Draft?

Far too often fans (and even GMs) primarily focus on drafting to fill needs.  This is simply an exercise to see how people would build the Bills if the team’s current needs were adequately filled.  It’s meant to ferret out people’s: 

- general team building philosophy 

- opinions of specific players in this draft

- this draft in general 

 

Would people prefer to stockpile picks or go after a game changer?  Which specific players would be worth a move up?  Do you build your team by improving the OL?  Or Edge?  Or CB?

 

Sure, it takes a bit of imagination and possibly even some thought, but I was interested to see what people thought. 

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1 hour ago, hjnick said:

Love hypotheticals. :)

 

Ok, IF, WR#1, OT/G, and EDGE are all fixed prior to the draft and there are no glaring weak spots...

 

The only players I'd try and trade up for are Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, and Jeff Okudah.  I think all 3 are going to be difference makers.

 

With having a WR#1, I don't have a reason to trade up for a WR.  I can still stay at 22 and get a great WR.

 

I would like to trade back and get some picks for next year.  In return, I want someone's #1 pick for next year.  I'd also like to use some of our lower level draft picks and maybe swap 3rd round picks so we can get farther up in the 3rd.

 

So then in that example, if we traded back into the front of round 2 w/ Cinc. 

 

We would get:

2020 1st pick 2nd round, 2020 1st pick 3rd round, 2021 Cinc 1st round pick

 

Cinc get:

2020 our first round pick (22), 2020 our 3rd round pick (swapped picks basically), 2020 5th round pick.

 

Is that even remotely close value wise??? :)

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

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This is pretty simple to me

 

The first round pick should be a WR..and we should also spend money on a Veteran WR....I would also look into what the Vikings want for WR (so either a veteran like Greene or a trade for another very good veteran WR

 

My 1st round pick would be Sheanalt, Higgins, or Ruggs.......I would then really start going best player available through the draft.......I would NOT trade back and I would NOT trade up and give up multitudes of picks.

 

I am hearing OL a bit in the thread....I really feel like the bills addressed OL in this last year and while I am def not against finding competiton we brought in TWO solid veterans to compete for the RT spot this past year.....we took Ford high.....we spent big money on our center....and we had veteran guys come in and pan out like Jon F. 

 

Offensive weapons and pass rush......that is what I want

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This board is generally addicted to drafting a wide receiver in round one.  With the depth available at that position this year, aside from free agency, why not truly fix the OL with a stud, legitimate tackle.  You don't win anything unless your offensive line is top notch.  Been saying that for years.

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If we enter draft night without any glaring needs we should just go BPA at, preferably at a premium position (OT, DE, WR, or CB). If a fringe top 10 started sliding into the mid teens (like Edmunds in at 2018) I hope we trade up to get them. We need more high impact starters on this team.

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1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

What would be the value for next year's 1st round pick be?  Thx.

 

BTW, I was also trading them the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick. 

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1 hour ago, hjnick said:

What would be the value for next year's 1st round pick be?  Thx.

 

BTW, I was also trading them the Bills 3rd round pick and 5th round pick. 

Future picks are tricky.  It’s not set in stone but they’re usually discounted at approximately one round with the second round divided into to tiers and the first into three tiers.  As an example if expect the Bengals to be drafting in the top 10 next year, then their 2021 first would be estimated at the value of a mid first round pick.  If you expect the Bills to be a playoff team and pick in the last 10 or so picks in 2021, then that would be worth a pick in the top half of the second round this year.  A place that some GMs find value is to gain a future 1st or 2nd round pick from a team that got a little lucky and over-performed in their record.  If that team falls of, then that pick could be way better than expected.

 

We don’t have nearly enough draft capital to get 33, 65 and next year’s first from

Cincy. 

 

54 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

We'd have to give up a future first rounder to move up to 8. No thanks.

To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up.  If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway.  Often that’s second round talent.  Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players. 

Edited by BarleyNY
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3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart:

22=780 pts

33=580

65=265

 

Except Cincy never trade up. Just not Mike Brown's MO. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

If one of the following fell out of the top 7, I’d move up:

Chase Young

Jeff Okudah

Derrick Brown

Javon Kinlaw

Isaiah Simmons

 

I think Simmons is going to slide. He shouldn't. He is great. But I think he will. Possibly out of the top 10 or 12 picks. 

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12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up.  If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway.  Often that’s second round talent.  Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players. 

I'm just not of fan of trading away future first for a non-QB, unless it's a true blue chip talent (like Young or Okudah) at a position where you have a big hole to fill.

9 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

No need for elite talent?

No, just no need to trade all the way up into the top 10 to find it.

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I loved what we did in 2001. We moved back and got Nate Clements later in the 1st and used the extra pick for Travis Henry. We started at 14 that year. In 2020 I would try to push back again and trade back for a later OL and get a 3rd or late 2nd and try to get another RB or best OL or RB.

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6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Except Cincy never trade up. Just not Mike Brown's MO. 

 

I think Simmons is going to slide. He shouldn't. He is great. But I think he will. Possibly out of the top 10 or 12 picks. 


I feel like someone—NYG, Jax, Cleveland, etc will take him. He’s too good.

 

5 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

I'm just not of fan of trading away future first for a non-QB, unless it's a true blue chip talent (like Young or Okudah) at a position where you have a big hole to fill.

No, just no need to trade all the way up into the top 10 to find it.


That’s typically where the elite talent is found though.

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