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Trade our first round pick


dbfla10

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36 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Agreed. It’s what I meant by “known quantity” bot I should’ve said elite difference maker. 

 

Fine, but here's the thing:  When it truly comes to "elite difference maker", a first round pick may not swing it.  Try maybe two firsts and a next year's third with a next year's sexond as change.  And then you gotta back up the Brinks truck and ante up for a new deal.

 

What The Bears gave Oakland for Mack:

On September 1, 2018, following Mack's holdout through the entire preseason, the Raiders traded him, a 2020 second-round pick, and a conditional fifth-round draft pick in 2020 (condition unknown) to the Chicago Bears for 2019 (24th overall, Josh Jacobs) and a 2020 first-round pick, as well as 2019 sixth and 2020 third round selections. Shortly after the trade, Mack signed a six-year deal worth $141 million featuring $90 million guaranteed, becoming the highest-paid defender in NFL history.[62]

 

I don't think Beane sees that as a winning strategy.  I'm not even sure he'd go hard for a top FA, with no draft picks involved - not because I don't think he should be willing to, but because of what he said about "not being players at the deep end of the FA pool" this year.

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14 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

Not sure it was autocorrect or I just missed it but I meant steal- but i always enjoy ribeye steak the most 

"k" and "l" are next to each other on the keyboard so I would guess it was a slip that allowed me to bust your balls. Yes, rib eyes are good. The thicker the better. 

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I don't know why Diggs is always in trade rumors (26 soon to be 27 year old stud WR on a big but reasonable contract) but I would easily give up a 2nd to take Diggs at a 15 million dollar cap hit. Diggs's contract is actually easy to get out of in 2022 (3 million dead cap) and actually not horrid to get out of in 2021 (6 million dollar cap hit.) His deal would add a short term injection of talent at a fair cap hit. The window to win is now but Diggs is also young enough where he could be a key cog for this team in the next 3-4 seasons if not longer with some good health. The risk is lower because after 2 season the deal is fairly painless to get out of and even in a catastrophic situation the cap is not locked in that much beyond 2020. 

 

A 2nd round pick is a steep price but it would free up pick 22 to be spent on other resources and get a big time prime player to help Josh immediately. I wouldn't give up pick 22 for various reasons but a 2nd rounder and a mid rounder in 2021? For sure I would strongly consider it. I know he isn't the biggest target but he is a speedy guy who is 6 feet tall. I think if this team wanted to add size they could find a vet TE would could be a big body in the receiving game. 

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Since we have ZERO idea who will be available when we are on the board, I wonder what would make somebody suggest we trade out at this point. Could it be a good option? Sure. Is it a good plan TODAY? I’d rather wait and see, taking the rational approach. 

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6 hours ago, Foxx said:

there is a report out there that they have offered Mack for the 'Skins #2 overall.

https://twitter.com/DanSileoShow/status/1226634414534221825

 

This guy is worse than incarcerated Bob and that is saying something... 

 

Go on his timeline and all of the bs he posts, he is beyond the worst source for anything.

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


2 thoughts here:

1) what 1st round pick hasn’t Beane gotten right in your opinion?

2) if Beane has a track record of not getting it right, doesn’t it make more sense to trade said pick for a known commodity?

https://giphy.com/gifs/wwe-wrestling-excited-cbG9wtoO8QScw

 

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8 hours ago, dbfla10 said:

Often times players this late in the draft have a 2nd round grade. Is this the year to trade it for a young proven player. Who in your opinion would be that young player that is worth it?  Could get a good player from a cap strapped team.

Christian McCaffrey...

Cooper Kupp but he shouldn't cost a 1st

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7 hours ago, ocemur said:

Tre'Davious White was ranked by some of the big media guys as the fourth or fifth corner coming out and selected with the 27th pick of the first round. Now what's the problem with selecting where we are again?

Could trade to the 6th and get a hof qb. 

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I like this idea.  Trade our first round pick.  No too many moving parts, not overly complicated.  Its easy to understand and should be easy to execute given the loose parameters.  All good plans should be flexible. The more rigid and complicated the plan the greater the chance of failure. 

 

This is the type of thoughtful analysis that I come here for. 

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22 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

I like this idea.  Trade our first round pick.  No too many moving parts, not overly complicated.  Its easy to understand and should be easy to execute given the loose parameters.  All good plans should be flexible. The more rigid and complicated the plan the greater the chance of failure. 

 

This is the type of thoughtful analysis that I come here for. 

 

I am hoping we can get at least everything from the odd numbered pages at the Cheesecake Factory, but I’d hope for 100% of the appetizer section.  Have to have a stretch goal! 

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8 hours ago, 947 said:

The Bears are a trainwreck of an organization. It'd be hard for any team to have success selling the farm for Mack like that, you'd really have to hit on nearly every remaining draft pick you didn't trade away. But then they also tied their hopes to Mitch, not to mention traded more draft assets to needlessly move up 1 spot for that right. This is not how contenders are built.

The Bears were a serious super bowl contender and a model for the bills, given the way they totally revamped their skill positions the season before last. The Mack trade was supposed to be the final piece and could have been - had mitchie continued on an upward trajectory ... he didn’t, and coupled with injuries and coaching, sent them two steps back .... hardly a “train wreck” as you describe   

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Depending on how the first round plays out, I might be willing to trade down a few spots to pick up an extra 2nd rounder.  If Higgins and Shenault are both still on the board, as will as Chaisson, for instance, that extra pick looks tempting.  Likewise, if that tier of WRs and edge rushers are all gone, a trade down might be the smart move.

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I'd be fine trading out of the first round for an additional pick in this years draft and next.  To me there is little difference between player 15 and player 45.  Now if there is a run on a couple of positions a guy that may be a top 15 talent could fall to 22.  If not,  getting a extra second this year and a first next year would be fine with me.   Or how about swapping spots with Detroit and dropping from 22 to 35 and getting Slay.  

The only downside to trading down is losing the team option for a fifth year.  

9 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

Depending on how the first round plays out, I might be willing to trade down a few spots to pick up an extra 2nd rounder.  If Higgins and Shenault are both still on the board, as will as Chaisson, for instance, that extra pick looks tempting.  Likewise, if that tier of WRs and edge rushers are all gone, a trade down might be the smart move.

I like Chaisson at 22 - Gil Brandt has him going to the Pats at 23 in his latest mock 

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33 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

The Bears were a serious super bowl contender and a model for the bills, given the way they totally revamped their skill positions the season before last. The Mack trade was supposed to be the final piece and could have been - had mitchie continued on an upward trajectory ... he didn’t, and coupled with injuries and coaching, sent them two steps back .... hardly a “train wreck” as you describe   

 

But didn’t the one lead to the other?  By squeezing the cap and trading away picks, they wound up losing the TE targets that helped Trubisky succeed.

Or at least, so it seems?

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15 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

I'll see your Aaron Maybin and raise you Mike Williams!

 

I forgot about Mike Williams, but he was another great example.  Unlike Maybin, however, he was at least rated a top prospect while Maybin was rated much lower.  I think the problem with Williams was that he was a RT in college that the Bills attempted to turn into a LT in the pros.  He simply didn't have the skill set to be an NFL LT.  He probably would have had a longer, better career if he'd been kept at RT or moved to OG early on his career.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I forgot about Mike Williams, but he was another great example.  Unlike Maybin, however, he was at least rated a top prospect while Maybin was rated much lower.  I think the problem with Williams was that he was a RT in college that the Bills attempted to turn into a LT in the pros.  He simply didn't have the skill set to be an NFL LT.  He probably would have had a longer, better career if he'd been kept at RT or moved to OG early on his career.

 

 

 

True, in hindsight everyone was ripping the Bills for the pick, but pre-draft almost all the mocks had Williams up at the top.  There was much debate about who should be selected higher him or McKinney, and there were enough experts out there who also rated Williams higher, so the Bills weren't completely crazy with the pick..  Again in hindsight neither ever panned out as well as expected, though McKinney certainly was the better of the two.

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15 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

You do realize that getting a pro bowler at the 27th pick is NOT the norm....right?

 

Some positions taken in the bottom third of the first round are pretty productive at producing Pro Bowlers, especially interior OLers and DBs.    Alex Mac, Maurkise Pouncey, and Dave DeCastro were all taken after #20.  DBs like White, Aqib Talib, and Ed Reed.  Troy Polumalu was taken at #18 IIRC.

 

 

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21 hours ago, dbfla10 said:

Often times players this late in the draft have a 2nd round grade. Is this the year to trade it for a young proven player. Who in your opinion would be that young player that is worth it?  Could get a good player from a cap strapped team.

I think this is also the type of draft where trading down might be valuable.

 

All of the true round 1 targets might be gone, and the Bills probably have a bunch ofround 2 guys they really like who might be gone by the time it gets to 54.

 

It might make sense to get an early 2nd and early 3rd and walk away with 4 solid starters in the first 3 rounds. 

Edited by Motorin'
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4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

I forgot about Mike Williams, but he was another great example.  Unlike Maybin, however, he was at least rated a top prospect while Maybin was rated much lower.  I think the problem with Williams was that he was a RT in college that the Bills attempted to turn into a LT in the pros.  He simply didn't have the skill set to be an NFL LT.  He probably would have had a longer, better career if he'd been kept at RT or moved to OG early on his career.

 

 

Mike William's did play RT for the Bills.

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