NYup/Parrino Mock Draft - rawwwrr

[Foxx]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I go the other way on Trent Murphy I am afraid. There is absolutely no way I am paying that man almost $10m in 2020. I don't care that we have the cap space. He is among the worst run defenders I have ever seen and his 5 sacks a year are not convincing me to part with $8m more than I need to (he costs just under $2m if cut) in order to keep him. I'd cut him and I'd do it tomorrow. I'd rather give his snaps to Darryl Johnson or Mike Love or any DE I find on the free agency scrap heap. I can't believe that there isn't a better use of $8m. 

i think we should let Hughes go as well. retain Lawson and bring in someone to replace Murphy (which wouldn't be that hard).

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I go the other way on Trent Murphy I am afraid. There is absolutely no way I am paying that man almost $10m in 2020. I don't care that we have the cap space. He is among the worst run defenders I have ever seen and his 5 sacks a year are not convincing me to part with $8m more than I need to (he costs just under $2m if cut) in order to keep him. I'd cut him and I'd do it tomorrow. I'd rather give his snaps to Darryl Johnson or Mike Love or any DE I find on the free agency scrap heap. I can't believe that there isn't a better use of $8m. 

Yup. Darryl Johnson is a sleeper. Could make a big jump this year with a good offseason.

[Happy]

26 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i think we should let Hughes go as well. retain Lawson and bring in someone to replace Murphy (which wouldn't be that hard).

 

Not this year, it wouldn't make sense.  Hughes can still be productive and his dead cap is $10.8M vs cap hit of $9.5M.  The potential out from Hughes' contract is after this upcoming season.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Foxx said:

i think we should let Hughes go as well. retain Lawson and bring in someone to replace Murphy (which wouldn't be that hard).

 

Sadly that silly contract they did with Hughes makes it hard to let him go. I did say this before last season. I wanted to let him play out and if he was still performing franchise him for another year. When the wall comes for pass rushers it tends to come pretty fast.

[thebandit27]

Someone still needs to explain to me how this team is better in 2020 without Murphy.

[Happy]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sadly that silly contract they did with Hughes makes it hard to let him go. I did say this before last season. I wanted to let him play out and if he was still performing franchise him for another year. When the wall comes for pass rushers it tends to come pretty fast.

 

Didn't Hughes essentially play with one hand this past season, due to fractured bones or something?  He definitely had an off year.

The biggest negative to keeping Hughes is that the LT can completely maul him and it never gets called.  I suspect this is because of Hughes shooting off his mouth while chasing after a referee in the tunnel after a game a few years back.

I hear you, the potential for Hughes to hit that wall is approaching.  Just hope he can make it through this season and be somewhat productive.

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Someone still needs to explain to me how this team is better in 2020 without Murphy.

 

You let him go, save $8M, and get a FA.  Murphy is not hard to replace.  I don't understand those who think he's something special, because he's not.

[Matt Parrino]

17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm posting this 'cuz I like it

 

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/02/nfl-mock-draft-2020-2-rounds-buffalo-bills-go-edge-rusher-receiver-in-pre-combine-mock.html

 

I claim no knowledge of how likely, best player, etc etc

 

The thing I don't get is the notion of cutting Trent Murphy to save $8M.  Why not hang on to him and keep a proven decent player and worry about cuts only AFTER we have proven players to replace him?

 

Here's what I wrote on Murphy last week @ https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/02/buffalo-bills-have-6-offseason-cut-candidates-what-to-do-with-trent-murphy-tyler-kroft-and-the-rest.html

 

I think keeping him on the roster is fine if the Bills can't upgrade in free agency. He's a nice rotational piece. I just think there are better options at that number. Almost $10 million for what Murphy brought in 2019 isn't good enough in my opinion. But that's just my opinion. Again, hanging onto him for 2020 with no other options, sure, that makes sense. If they re-sign Shaq and draft a pass rusher I think that $10 million would be better spent elsewhere. 

 

1. Trent Murphy, DE

2020 Cap Hit: $9.78 million

2020 Dead Cap: $1.75 million

Potential savings: $8.03 million

Murphy was solid in 2019 and his most significant contributions came in the biggest game of the season when he had two sacks against the Houston Texans in the playoffs. Murphy is a well-rounded edge player that left something to be desired as a consistent pass rusher.

Heading into the final year of a three-year deal, Murphy is a contingency plan at this point. With Shaq Lawson entering free agency the Bills currently have Jerry Hughes, Murphy and 2019 seventh-round draft pick Darryl Johnson on the roster. If Lawson signs elsewhere and the Bills whiff on an edge rusher in free agency or on Day 1/2 of the draft, Murphy’s inclusion on the 2020 roster is basically guaranteed.

If the Bills are able to make a move or two and upgrade at the position (free agent edge rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Robert Quinn come to mind) then saving the $8 million makes a lot of sense.

Edited February 18, 2020 by Hapless Bills Fan
Formatting

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Didn't Hughes essentially play with one hand this past season, due to fractured bones or something?  He definitely had an off year.

The biggest negative to keeping Hughes is that the LT can completely maul him and it never gets called.  I suspect this is because of Hughes shooting off his mouth while chasing after a referee in the tunnel after a game a few years back.

I hear you, the potential for Hughes to hit that wall is approaching.  Just hope he can make it through this season and be somewhat productive.

 

You let him go, save $8M, and get a FA.  Murphy is not hard to replace.  I don't understand those who think he's something special, because he's not.

You don’t need to let him go to get a FA. You can keep him AND get a FA.

 

He may not be something special, but he’s clearly better than their current DE4. 

[Matt Parrino]

1 hour ago, westside2 said:

I don't understand the two picks. He chose two guys he doesn't think will be there when they pick? Is this a mock draft or a wish list?

 

I've seen tons of mocks where they're there. I just don't think they will be in April. The Scouting Combine is going to change everything.

[Happy]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You don’t need to let him go to get a FA. You can keep him AND get a FA.

 

He may not be something special, but he’s clearly better than their current DE4. 

 

He's not worth the $8-10M cap hit to keep as he is way overpaid.  Re-sign Shaq Lawson and use the money to get a FA, which shouldn't be too hard to do.  Worst case you have Hughes and Lawson with Johnson and Love as rotations (which I'm not exactly enamored with), but I don't think the worst case will come to pass.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

He's not worth the $8-10M cap hit to keep as he is way overpaid.  Re-sign Shaq Lawson and use the money to get a FA, which shouldn't be too hard to do.  Worst case you have Hughes and Lawson with Johnson and Love as rotations (which I'm not exactly enamored with), but I don't think the worst case will come to pass.

Once again, you can do all of that AND keep Murphy, and you’ll be a better team than cutting him to gain cap space that you don’t need.

 

In your scenario, who would you rather have at DE4: Johnson, Love, or Murphy? Honestly it isn’t close.

[Happy]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Once again, you can do all of that AND keep Murphy, and you’ll be a better team than cutting him to gain cap space that you don’t need.

 

In your scenario, who would you rather have at DE4: Johnson, Love, or Murphy? Honestly it isn’t close.

 

That's what I meant by not being enamored with the DE's behind Lawson and Hughes.  I get your point about not cutting a player who is better than your lower end depth, but keeping Murphy at his current pay rate is a waste of money.  Use it to get an upgrade in FA, which Beane should be able to do.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Happy Gilmore said:

 

That's what I meant by not being enamored with the DE's behind Lawson and Hughes.  I get your point about not cutting a player who is better than your lower end depth, but keeping Murphy at his current pay rate is a waste of money.  Use it to get an upgrade in FA, which Beane should be able to do.

You don’t need to make your team worse to get money for an upgrade. This team can basically get whatever they want done in FA (money-wise) without a single cut.

 

Unless you need the money, you shouldn’t make your team worse.

For me, it’s that simple.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Matt Parrino said:

 

Here's what I wrote on Murphy last week @ https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/02/buffalo-bills-have-6-offseason-cut-candidates-what-to-do-with-trent-murphy-tyler-kroft-and-the-rest.html

 

I think keeping him on the roster is fine if the Bills can't upgrade in free agency. He's a nice rotational piece. I just think there are better options at that number. Almost $10 million for what Murphy brought in 2019 isn't good enough in my opinion. But that's just my opinion. Again, hanging onto him for 2020 with no other options, sure, that makes sense. If they re-sign Shaq and draft a pass rusher I think that $10 million would be better spent elsewhere. 

 

1. Trent Murphy, DE

2020 Cap Hit: $9.78 million

2020 Dead Cap: $1.75 million

Potential savings: $8.03 million

Murphy was solid in 2019 and his most significant contributions came in the biggest game of the season when he had two sacks against the Houston Texans in the playoffs. Murphy is a well-rounded edge player that left something to be desired as a consistent pass rusher.

Heading into the final year of a three-year deal, Murphy is a contingency plan at this point. With Shaq Lawson entering free agency the Bills currently have Jerry Hughes, Murphy and 2019 seventh-round draft pick Darryl Johnson on the roster. If Lawson signs elsewhere and the Bills whiff on an edge rusher in free agency or on Day 1/2 of the draft, Murphy’s inclusion on the 2020 roster is basically guaranteed.

If the Bills are able to make a move or two and upgrade at the position (free agent edge rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Robert Quinn come to mind) then saving the $8 million makes a lot of sense.

 

Hi Matt, nice to hear your thoughts.

 

I completely agree that if the Bills upgrade in FA and the draft. Murphy becomes expendable.  What wasn’t clear to me from the Mock Draft I linked, was your sequence “If....Then”.

Rookies are always an unknown wrt how quickly they’ll pick up the pro game and even if they look great in pre-season, that doesn’t always guarantee.

 

So IMHO it would make no sense to cut ties with Murphy until the cut-down to the 53 man (unless he becomes expendable and someone offers to trade).  Keep him, and if he’s outplayed by various additions OR if we truly are at a point where we need his space, then cut ways.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

That's what I meant by not being enamored with the DE's behind Lawson and Hughes.  I get your point about not cutting a player who is better than your lower end depth, but keeping Murphy at his current pay rate is a waste of money.  Use it to get an upgrade in FA, which Beane should be able to do.

 

If they upgrade, for sure Murphy becomes expendable.  But until cap space does become limiting, I think there’s a point in looking at skill level alone, and not skill level/$$.

I would agree with you about being able to find higher skill level/$$ around the league, but then we get into is it a big step or an increment, and what’s value to place on a guy who already knows the system?

 

I would say the same holds true of Lotulelei.  Is he value for $$?  Even after the pay cut, maybe not....but until we have enough other players proven to be better or we’re tight with the cap, why not?

[Foxx]

2 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

Not this year, it wouldn't make sense.  Hughes can still be productive and his dead cap is $10.8M vs cap hit of $9.5M.  The potential out from Hughes' contract is after this upcoming season.

 

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sadly that silly contract they did with Hughes makes it hard to let him go. I did say this before last season. I wanted to let him play out and if he was still performing franchise him for another year. When the wall comes for pass rushers it tends to come pretty fast.

i didn't realize Hughes cap hit was so large this year. it looks like we will be retaining him another year. lets hope he was one handed for most of last year and he has a better year this go round.

[John from Riverside]

29 minutes ago, Foxx said:

 

i didn't realize Hughes cap hit was so large this year. it looks like we will be retaining him another year. lets hope he was one handed for most of last year and he has a better year this go round.

Get the guy a better edge on the other side and watch Hughes flourish

[Happy]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If they upgrade, for sure Murphy becomes expendable.  But until cap space does become limiting, I think there’s a point in looking at skill level alone, and not skill level/$$.

I would agree with you about being able to find higher skill level/$$ around the league, but then we get into is it a big step or an increment, and what’s value to place on a guy who already knows the system?

 

I would say the same holds true of Lotulelei.  Is he value for $$?  Even after the pay cut, maybe not....but until we have enough other players proven to be better or we’re tight with the cap, why not?

 

If Beane finds a FA who is and increment better than Murphy, I think you get rid of Murphy as he is overpaid for his middling production.  I personally don't think the guy is that good and see why the Redskins parted ways with him, aside from injury history.

 

From Beane's perspective, I would assume that a lot of it depends on A) re-signing Shaq Lawson, B) drafting an Edge who is more than SpT/depth, and C) FA upgrade.  If all three occur, I would expect Murphy gone.  If one of the three doesn't happen, I can see Murphy back on a short deal.

 

I expect Star to be back since it doesn't make sense to part with him until after the 2020 season, cap wise.  A poster mentioned that a team counting on Star and Murphy as starters on the D-line is not a team that will play for the SB; I completely agree with that sentiment since neither are better than middling talent.

[Westside]

2 hours ago, Matt Parrino said:

 

I've seen tons of mocks where they're there. I just don't think they will be in April. The Scouting Combine is going to change everything.

I understand. Who were your picks if both are gone?

[Matt Parrino]

29 minutes ago, westside2 said:

I understand. Who were your picks if both are gone?

 

I'd probably go Shenault for now. I'm hoping he can test next week. Higgins would be intriguing to once I get a chance to hear him talk and see how he runs. Delpit might be an intriguing option I saw suggested.