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Would you give our 2020 1st rd pick to the Lions for Kenny Golliday?

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38 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Beane certainly knew of those 4 WRs available in the 2nd.  He felt they were not good enough to pick instead of Ford.  That was bad. 

 

 


Ford was pretty much considered a first round talent by the majority of the so called draft experts..literally all the guys on nfl:com had him going between 17 to 30 in their final mocks..I don’t recall a lot of criticism at the time after the pick here or in the media..

 

Yes, after 1 year it looks like he should have picked someone else at that spot and the likes of the WR’s you mention fit the bill..

 

I still think Ford has the potential to live up to where he was picked though, and if he goes on to be a starter over the rest of his rookie deal and hopefully signs a second contract, it won’t turn out to be “bad”..

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28 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Ford was pretty much considered a first round talent by the majority of the so called draft experts..literally all the guys on nfl:com had him going between 17 to 30 in their final mocks..I don’t recall a lot of criticism at the time after the pick here or in the media..

 

Yes, after 1 year it looks like he should have picked someone else at that spot and the likes of the WR’s you mention fit the bill..

 

I still think Ford has the potential to live up to where he was picked though, and if he goes on to be a starter over the rest of his rookie deal and hopefully signs a second contract, it won’t turn out to be “bad”..


Well they were all wrong on Ford.  Beane knew that by the end of the 1st round.  
 

 

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Just now, Mr. WEO said:


Well they were all wrong on Ford.  Beane knew that by the end of the 1st round.  
 

 


I’ll never claim that the draft is an exact science..

 

If he has Ford rated higher on his board then the WR’s remaining  then he should pick him.

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15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

First, whatever post you are talking about is not what I replied to.

 

Second, "soon" has plenty of leeway. It's absolutely not a total exaggeration that they could be getting paid soon. Allen and Edmund could get paid as soon as next off-season. I very much doubt that Allen in particular will, but "soon" is a very reasonable word under the circumstances.

 

Yeah, the Bills control Tre for another two years. That does not in any sense rule out giving him a new contract as soon as before or during this season. Depending on the details of the contract it could easily make total sense for both parties. And extending guys who are key contributors in a year when you have a lot of money makes total sense.

 

As for going to get a final big piece or two ... well, that's fine if that's the way you would spend money. I myself am very happy that McDermott and Beane have made it very clear that it's not how they do things. They build their core through the draft and fill in with low- and medium-priced FAs and they prioritize bringing back their own guys, and they've said it so many times now I wonder how people still fight to ignore their words.

It's not what you replied to but you replied to ScottLaw, who's reply was to that post by Elijah.  It's the inception of the argument.

 

It's a total exaggeration that Edmunds and Allen are getting paid soon.  Guys like Joey Bosa and Aaron Donald played 4 years on their rookie deals.  To think Edmunds won't play another 2 years on his deal is a stretch.  The only reason he wouldn't is if it would somehow be beneficial to the cap if he redid his deal after 3 but that would go against your argument anyways.   Same goes for Allen.  Wentz and Goff got their deals done after 3 years but Josh hasn't shown what those guys showed in year 2 and 3.  Maybe Josh blows the lid off it next year and they want to redo his deal next offseason, but again, that's a stretch and not probable.

 

The argument was the Bills don't have the money to hypothetically give Golladay a new contract without losing current, key players on the roster.  That is not true.  They have the ability to do Dawkins, Milano, Shaq and Poyer this offseason, Tre next and potentially Edmunds and Allen the following year.  Hats off to Beane because the Bills are in great shape to be able to do this. This team is a #1 WR away from having a contender type team.  I don't know how anyone could not want to make that move now. 

Edited by soflabillsfan1
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If he would agree to a new 4 or 5 year contract, absolutely. He’s young and just entering his prime, and he’s a proven receiver. if you draft a receiver at 22, there’s a chance he could be as good as Golladay, or there’s a chance he could be another Corey Coleman or Kevin White. Always take the surest thing.

 

Golladay, Brown, and Beasley would be a fantastic trio.

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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:


I’ll never claim that the draft is an exact science..

 

If he has Ford rated higher on his board then the WR’s remaining  then he should pick him.


Yhat was the crux of this discussion: he did

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On 2/12/2020 at 12:17 PM, elijah said:

No. 

 

Draft offers more youth, some players seemingly with more talent, and a lot less money. 

 

The first round pick for X questions just don’t make much sense, especially with the WR depth this year. 

 

What?  Golloday will be going into his 4th year.  A budding star.  6'4" 215 with a 18.3ypc.  Has improved every year he's been in the league.

 

The best you can do is HOPE whoever is drafted puts forth that kind of production.

 

What's with this board and the dismissal of proven talent?  Yet more than half of you are jazzed about signing A 35 year old tight end with 1 foot out the door.

 

Raise your standards!

On 2/12/2020 at 12:18 PM, Virgil said:

He’s the speed, big bodied guy everyone says we need 

 

And to further prove how worthless metrics can be, Golloday ran a 4.5 at the combine.

Edited by Chicken Boo
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23 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

I didn’t say I think they’ll spend like sailors, I said I think you’ll see them add a couple somewhat splashy signings/trades like an AJ Green or Yannick or someone of their level. 

 

You aren’t going to see the same FA approach as last year because they don’t need the same approach. The team had holes and lack of depth everywhere as they signed the most FAs of any team last offseason. You’ll see them prioritize quality over quantity this offseason and focus on guys who can help put them over the top. 

 

 

You didn't use the words "spend like sailors," but then you talk about adding both Green and Yannick, which for them in one year is likely well within their definition of spending like sailors. You're like the guy who says, "I'm not drinking right now. This beer? Beer's not drinking." Yes it is, and while you don't want the words to be associated with you, the moves you're talking about are exactly what they've always said they're not going to do.

 

And while the year-to-year strategies will absolutely differ, you're desperately hoping that something that they obvious consider not a year-to-year strategy but a foundational principle will change. And it won't. They've said the same thing about not spending a ton on FAs every single time they've been asked, not just this year but with absolute consistency since their very first press conference.

 

Here's the most recent, from the end of season PC about three weeks ago:

 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/07/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-press-conference-8-takeaways/

 

"Since taking over as Buffalo’s general manager in the 2017 offseason, Beane’s roster additions have been consistent and concentrated, often making under-the-radar moves that prove to be more impactful than initially thought. With roughly $90 million in cap space to play with in the offseason, Beane again plans to make careful and well thought out moves that may not steal headlines, but will improve the team’s roster.

 

“I don’t think we’re one player away,” Beane said. “I never think you are, and I definitely don’t think we’re one player away. You lose the first round of the playoffs, that doesn’t say to me [that] the Bills are one player away from being exactly where they want to be.

 

“We’re a lot of positions away that we’ve got to clean up or answer.”

 

 

 

Hunh. Seems almost as if he in fact would disagree that they are only a few players away.

 

Beane is who he is. You can either deal with it or not. Your choice.

 

And as for "add a couple somewhat splashy signings/trades," again, yeah, very solid guess. They could re-sign Tre' White, for instance, or Dawkins,  and they had some nice somewhat splashy signings last year in Morse, Cole Beasley and John Brown. It totally would make sense for them to do the same kind of thing again this year.

 

 

 

17 hours ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

It's not what you replied to but you replied to ScottLaw, who's reply was to that post by Elijah.  It's the inception of the argument.

 

It's a total exaggeration that Edmunds and Allen are getting paid soon.  Guys like Joey Bosa and Aaron Donald played 4 years on their rookie deals.  To think Edmunds won't play another 2 years on his deal is a stretch.  The only reason he wouldn't is if it would somehow be beneficial to the cap if he redid his deal after 3 but that would go against your argument anyways.   Same goes for Allen.  Wentz and Goff got their deals done after 3 years but Josh hasn't shown what those guys showed in year 2 and 3.  Maybe Josh blows the lid off it next year and they want to redo his deal next offseason, but again, that's a stretch and not probable.

 

The argument was the Bills don't have the money to hypothetically give Golladay a new contract without losing current, key players on the roster.  That is not true.  They have the ability to do Dawkins, Milano, Shaq and Poyer this offseason, Tre next and potentially Edmunds and Allen the following year.  Hats off to Beane because the Bills are in great shape to be able to do this. This team is a #1 WR away from having a contender type team.  I don't know how anyone could not want to make that move now. 

 

 

Look, first that's only a small part of the argument. And second, if you want to force the word "soon" to mean something it doesn't, fine, go ahead, whatever. Your business. But for most people, next year is soon. I won't bother continuing that argument, it's not worth another keystroke to me. But pretending that they might not sign Edmunds as soon as March 2021 is kidding yourself. They might not. Equally, they might not, but it's absolutely something they'll consider. Same with Tre' and Dawkins and the others who they can consider as early as next month. Just because a guy is under contract for longer doesn't mean it won't be economically sensible to extend him now. They've said it's their first priority to re-sign guys and maintain continuity, and to build their core through the draft.

 

The argument isn't "whether they have the ability to hypothetically give Golladay a new contract ..." It's whether they will, or maybe whether they would if he were available. It's whether that's the kind of move they intend to make. Look at their models and you see those teams making a move that big very infrequently, once every five years or so, roughly. Could this be the year? Maybe. I seriously doubt it with Golladay myself, even if he were available, not for the money he's likely to demand and the draft pick the Lions would likely demand.

 

 

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The draft is largely a crapshoot.

 

Yes to this trade unless OBD is 100% sure a WR: (i) is better than Golladay, and (ii) will be there at their pick or that they can trade to a position to pick him.

 

Golladay is a proven NFL WR who just put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons.

 

You happily roll w/ Golladay, Brown, & Beasley, and might even still add another 4-5 round WR. 

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54 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

The draft is largely a crapshoot.

 

Yes to this trade unless OBD is 100% sure a WR: (i) is better than Golladay, and (ii) will be there at their pick or that they can trade to a position to pick him.

 

Golladay is a proven NFL WR who just put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons.

 

You happily roll w/ Golladay, Brown, & Beasley, and might even still add another 4-5 round WR. 

 

 

 

To the extent that the draft is a crapshoot, free agency is too.

 

Plenty of FAs who'd been good on their last team don't do as well in a new system with new coaches and surroundings. Some do. But it's not as if FAs are a sure thing either.

 

You don't have to go back to Haynesworth, Osweiler, or David Boston's Chargers contract to find FAs who didn't live up to their pay. Jacoby Brissett, Sam Bradford to the Cards, Vontae Davis, for Pete's sake, or look at Nate Solder. Case Keenum Malcolm Butler, Sammy Watkins, who's been decent but nowhere near lived up to his contract ... it goes on and on.

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Look, first that's only a small part of the argument. And second, if you want to force the word "soon" to mean something it doesn't, fine, go ahead, whatever. Your business. But for most people, next year is soon. I won't bother continuing that argument, it's not worth another keystroke to me. But pretending that they might not sign Edmunds as soon as March 2021 is kidding yourself. They might not. Equally, they might not, but it's absolutely something they'll consider. Same with Tre' and Dawkins and the others who they can consider as early as next month. Just because a guy is under contract for longer doesn't mean it won't be economically sensible to extend him now. They've said it's their first priority to re-sign guys and maintain continuity, and to build their core through the draft.

 

The argument isn't "whether they have the ability to hypothetically give Golladay a new contract ..." It's whether they will, or maybe whether they would if he were available. It's whether that's the kind of move they intend to make. Look at their models and you see those teams making a move that big very infrequently, once every five years or so, roughly. Could this be the year? Maybe. I seriously doubt it with Golladay myself, even if he were available, not for the money he's likely to demand and the draft pick the Lions would likely demand.

 

 

Now lets look at some facts since your post is completely devoid of them.  You tell me that I'm "kidding myself" if I think the Bills won't resign Edmunds as early as next March, which would be after his 3rd year in the league.  Let's look at the 2014-2016 NFL drafts for historical reference.  Those players just finished their 4th, 5th and 6th seasons in the league.  In the 1st round of those drafts a total of 48 defensive players were drafted.  Do you know how many of them had their deals redone after 3 years?  ZERO.  NOT A SINGLE ONE.  So lets put the "Edmunds might get resigned next year" theory to bed.  It's not happening.  He is not getting resigned "soon"

 

Yes the argument is whether or not we can sign Golladay without breaking the young nucleus of the team.  That was the original argument.  I'm debating our financial ability to do so. I'm not debating Beane's methods or anything that's an opinion.  I'm debating the numbers.  I think we should grab a piece like him if he's available.  That's my opinion.  We have the financial ability to do so, that's a fact.

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On 2/14/2020 at 10:53 PM, ScottLaw said:

I didn’t say I think they’ll spend like sailors, I said I think you’ll see them add a couple somewhat splashy signings/trades like an AJ Green or Yannick or someone of their level.

 

 

Having gone back to listen to post season PC from last month, I noticed this gem:

 

 

"We probably won’t be spending at the deep end of the pool like we did last year (in free agency), It’s still up to us to find either pieces to compete with what we have or pieces that can upgrade. You can get guys that are minimum contract guys, guys that are low-tier, sort of middle of the road, those sometimes are as important or more important than those big-ticket items."   - Brandon Beane

 

 

Try to understand who this guy Beane is.

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21 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

To the extent that the draft is a crapshoot, free agency is too.

 

Plenty of FAs who'd been good on their last team don't do as well in a new system with new coaches and surroundings. Some do. But it's not as if FAs are a sure thing either.

 

You don't have to go back to Haynesworth, Osweiler, or David Boston's Chargers contract to find FAs who didn't live up to their pay. Jacoby Brissett, Sam Bradford to the Cards, Vontae Davis, for Pete's sake, or look at Nate Solder. Case Keenum Malcolm Butler, Sammy Watkins, who's been decent but nowhere near lived up to his contract ... it goes on and on.

 

True, FA is a crapshoot too to an extent. I agree. 

 

But the point I still would make is that Golladay just produced two 1,000 yard NFL seasons and no WR in this draft has taken a snap in the league yet.

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55 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

 

Yes the argument is whether or not we can sign Golladay without breaking the young nucleus of the team.  That was the original argument.  I'm debating our financial ability to do so. I'm not debating Beane's methods or anything that's an opinion.  I'm debating the numbers.  I think we should grab a piece like him if he's available.  That's my opinion.  We have the financial ability to do so, that's a fact.

 

 

 

 

 

If your argument is whether or not we can sign Golladay ... go talk to someone who cares enough to disagree. That's a wildly unimportant argument, one I'm not interested in. The argument introduced in this thread is whether we will or should.

 

Here's the title:

Would you give our 2020 1st rd pick to the Lions for Kenny Golliday?

 

Not "can we". Certainly, obviously, that was NOT the original argument as you claim.

 

But if you feel the need to argue that, go find someone interested. But don't bother replying to me. That argument's irrelevant, uninteresting and an attempt to derail the original argument.

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 hour ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

Now lets look at some facts since your post is completely devoid of them.  You tell me that I'm "kidding myself" if I think the Bills won't resign Edmunds as early as next March, which would be after his 3rd year in the league.  Let's look at the 2014-2016 NFL drafts for historical reference.  Those players just finished their 4th, 5th and 6th seasons in the league.  In the 1st round of those drafts a total of 48 defensive players were drafted.  Do you know how many of them had their deals redone after 3 years?  ZERO.  NOT A SINGLE ONE.  So lets put the "Edmunds might get resigned next year" theory to bed.  It's not happening.  He is not getting resigned "soon"

 

Is that right? Nobody from 2014 to 2016 re-signed after their first three years? Wow, you ought to call Derek Carr and tell him he doesn't exist. Oh, wait, you wanted to try to gerrymander him out of the discussion. Gotcha. But he's one of several cases when guys have been extended after three years. Better make the same call to Carson Wentz, though. Drafted in 2016, massive extension in the offseason of his third year. And Goff, same deal. Wow, three guys. Oh, gerrymandering again. It happened to three guys but you don't want to talk about them so you set up some conditions to exclude them.

 

Tyron Smith, drafted 2011 signed a massive eight-year extension in 2014. In July.

 

Travis Frederick, drafted in 2013, signed a massive six-year extension in 2016, in August.

 

Patrick Peterson, JJ Watt too. Oh, they're defense. How did you twist things to try to exclude them? Oh, yeah, only guys from 2014 to 2016 count. Hilarious!

 

Russell Wilson. K Jake Elliott. LS Rick Lovato. Darrelle Revis.

 

It's a real possibility it might happen to Mahomes this year, as this tweet shows: " Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt on Patrick Mahomes' contract: 'I don't want to say necessarily it has to be this offseason.' "

 

I could look and find more but the point is made. It's happened to defensive guys, guys in the first round and later, and weirdly even guys not drafted between 2014 and 2016.

 

Oh, wait, I had to check one more, and I was right!!!, It even happened to one middle linebacker. And you'll never ever guess who was the defensive coordinator for that guy, or who was the assistant General Manager. That's right, the year Luke Kuechly got his extension after three years, Sean McDermott was his DC and Brandon Beane was his Assistant GM!!!  Golly!

 

And it couldn't happen here? Nonsense!!  It happens, and saying it won't is willful ignorance. It could.

 

It's not common because only in a very limited set of circumstances would it make sense. The guy has to have proved himself very young as an outstanding player they want to keep around, there has to be a front office focused on re-signing their own talent early, it's more likely if the team has a lot of salary cap space and more likely when it's a team that doesn't want to sign premium FAs from other teams as a consistent policy. The coaching staff must be very secure, as a new regime might find the guy doesn’t fit what they want to do.

 

The Bills fit all those criteria. The FO has said re-signing their guys and maintaining continuity is a major priority for them. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it absolutely could.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Thurman#1

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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Is that right? Nobody from 2014 to 2016 re-signed after their first three years? Wow, you ought to call Derek Carr and tell him he doesn't exist. Oh, wait, you wanted to try to gerrymander him out of the discussion. Gotcha. But he's one of several cases when guys have been extended after three years. Better make the same call to Carson Wentz, though. Drafted in 2016, massive extension in the offseason of his third year. And Goff, same deal. Wow, three guys. Oh, gerrymandering again. It happened to three guys but you don't want to talk about them so you set up some conditions to exclude them.

 

Tyron Smith, drafted 2011 signed a massive eight-year extension in 2014. In July.

 

Travis Frederick, drafted in 2013, signed a massive six-year extension in 2016, in August.

 

Patrick Peterson, JJ Watt too. Oh, they're defense. How did you twist things to try to exclude them? Oh, yeah, only guys from 2014 to 2016 count. Hilarious!

 

Russell Wilson. K Jake Elliott. LS Rick Lovato. Darrelle Revis.

 

It's a real possibility it might happen to Mahomes this year, as this tweet shows: " Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt on Patrick Mahomes' contract: 'I don't want to say necessarily it has to be this offseason.' "

 

I could look and find more but the point is made. It's happened to defensive guys, guys in the first round and later, and weirdly even guys not drafted between 2014 and 2016.

 

Oh, wait, I had to check one more, and I was right!!!, It even happened to one middle linebacker. And you'll never ever guess who was the defensive coordinator for that guy, or who was the assistant General Manager. That's right, the year Luke Kuechly got his extension after three years, Sean McDermott was his DC and Brandon Beane was his Assistant GM!!!  Golly!

 

And it couldn't happen here? Nonsense!!  It happens, and saying it won't is willful ignorance. It could.

 

It's not common because only in a very limited set of circumstances would it make sense. The guy has to have proved himself very young as an outstanding player they want to keep around, there has to be a front office focused on re-signing their own talent early, it's more likely if the team has a lot of salary cap space and more likely when it's a team that doesn't want to sign premium FAs from other teams as a consistent policy. The coaching staff must be very secure, as a new regime might find the guy doesn’t fit what they want to do.

 

The Bills fit all those criteria. The FO has said re-signing their guys and maintaining continuity is a major priority for them. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it absolutely could.

 

 

 

 

OMG, this is really pathetic.  I went back three years because these were the most recent drafts that pertained to the topic.  I also included only defensive players because Edmunds is  defensive player.  You start throwing in offensive players, quarterbacks and guys not even drafted in the 1st round or in a draft where the 5th year option was available.  Talk about some serious reaching.  A real new low for you.  Even when you do that, it's a extremely small number of players.  Especially defensive players.  So let's look at the data:  Zero players out of 48 defensive 1st rounders drafted between 2014-2016 got new deals after three years.  In 2013, ZERO defensive players out of 17 drafted in the 1st round got new deals after 3 years.  In 2012 1 defensive player drafted in the 1st round got a new deal after 3 years.  In 2011 2 out of the 16 defensive players drafted in the 1st round got new deals after 3 years.  So to summarize: 3% of defensive 1st round players players since the 2011 draft have received extensions after 3 years.  1 defensive 1st rounders since 2012 has gotten and extension after 3 years.  That's 1 player out of 82 defensive 1st rounders or 3 in 98 if you go nap to 2011 the first year of the 5th year option.  Those are some bad looking odds/trends.  Just walk away.

Edited by soflabillsfan1

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We definitely need to add another solid option(s) but how good is John Brown? Besides his size, he's a beast. High level route runner , elite speed and very good hands.

And How good can he be with another elite deep threat? 

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2 hours ago, soflabillsfan1 said:

OMG, this is really pathetic.  I went back three years because these were the most recent drafts that pertained to the topic.  I also included only defensive players because Edmunds is  defensive player.  You start throwing in offensive players, quarterbacks and guys not even drafted in the 1st round or in a draft where the 5th year option was available.  Talk about some serious reaching.  A real new low for you.  Even when you do that, it's a extremely small number of players.  Especially defensive players.  So let's look at the data:  Zero players out of 48 defensive 1st rounders drafted between 2014-2016 got new deals after three years.  In 2013, ZERO defensive players out of 17 drafted in the 1st round got new deals after 3 years.  In 2012 ZERO defensive players drafted in the 1st round got new deals after 3 years.  In 2011 3 out of the 16 defensive players drafted in the 1st round got new deals after 3 years.  So to summarize: 3% of defensive 1st round players players since the 2011 draft have received extensions after 3 years.  ZERO defensive 1st rounders since 2012 have gotten extensions after 3 years.  That's ZERO players out of 82 defensive 1st rounders.  Those are some bad looking odds/trends.  Just walk away.

To me that is all irrelevant. I understand what you're trying to say , I just don't see the relevance. It's not a common thing because seeing greatness in 3 years is not a common thing. But it happens and I think should happen so we sign him with a lower total cap. 

 

Tre passes the eye test , with flying colors. Achieved 1st team ALL PRO , since day 1  it wasn't hard to see this kid is special and elite at his position. Fans LOVE him , judging by the Bills promotion of him , they love him , teammates love him, is a great locker room guy and has tremendous work ethic. We're not letting this guy touch the market, might as well save a little coin and sign him now rather than later. 

Edited by JerseyBills

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I actually wanted the Bills to draft Golladay in 2017.

 

But I digress. ?

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1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

To me that is all irrelevant. I understand what you're trying to say , I just don't see the relevance. It's not a common thing because seeing greatness in 3 years is not a common thing. But it happens and I think should happen so we sign him with a lower total cap. 

 

Tre passes the eye test , with flying colors. Achieved 1st team ALL PRO , since day 1  it wasn't hard to see this kid is special and elite at his position. Fans LOVE him , judging by the Bills promotion of him , they love him , teammates love him, is a great locker room guy and has tremendous work ethic. We're not letting this guy touch the market, might as well save a little coin and sign him now rather than later. 

I was referring to Edmunds, but the same principal applies to Tre. There are a ton of defensive  players that showed their greatness by year 3 that didn't get new deals till after year 4.  Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, CJ Mosely, Clowney, Ansah, Fletcher Cox, Chandler Jones, Marcus Peters, Joey Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, and plenty of other Pro Bowlers left out.  Not saying they won't do Tre this offseason but it would be going severely against the trend.

Edited by soflabillsfan1

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