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Reed83HOF

PFF Baker is still better than Allen & Tre isn't in their top 101 players

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Allen will get all the love if he can improve his deep ball accuracy. The kid is a playmaker missing a big part of the game to make him a complete weapon. I think we all agree he's never going to be Mr Hyper Accurate; I don't think he needs to. Between his arm, hitting the deep ball, and his running, his ceiling is high indeed. Getting him a "catch anything in his vicinity" type would help immensely (sorry for the Captain Obvious observation since that type of receiver helps any quarterback) but Allen moreso. It was a little shocking watching him miss so many earlier in the year; it's frustrating as well since many of those throws are probably touchdowns.

  

There's no guarantees but if Jordan Palmer is right (let's face it his job is to say everything is going to be AWESOME), then Allen makes a quantum leap this year and those misses/near misses become touchdowns or at least easy red zone opportunities. He could finish in the 30+ TD passes range, along with whatever he runs for; this puts him in Lamar Jackson territory. If that happens (big if) it will be amusing to watch the analysts trip over themselves to correct their takes. Or in the case of Football Outsiders: to come up with increasingly outrageous reasons why it's all a mirage and Josh is still a scrub.

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Lol he's got something personal against Allen. No need for the jab there.  Why did he pick Allen?  He forgot Darnold and Rosen.

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3 hours ago, thurst44 said:

The weirdest thing is PFF LOVED Tre his rookie year. He was their DROY. Still a bit baffled how they can argue that a guy who led the league in interceptions, was second in QBR against, and who did not allow a single TD in a season is regressing and not even a top 10 cornerback. If your metric does not put a guy like that even in your top 100 players, it's probably your metric that's wrong.

 

Also, have they ever talked about Sean McDermott, because given he's one of four teams that don't even have one top 101 player, he's got his team solidly in the playoffs. They must believe he's the second coming of Lombardi (or at least the love child of Belichick and Reid).

They hate White now because he made Duck Hodges look bad on that interception play he made against him.

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1 hour ago, Romie said:

Lol he's got something personal against Allen. No need for the jab there.  Why did he pick Allen?  He forgot Darnold and Rosen.

Well, this is what you may chalk up to an "agenda" type item, where their pre-draft analysis has to be proven mostly right after the fact (whoopsies on that Rosen #3 and Rudolph #4 ranking...) and they heavily pushed Mayfield all the way at #1 to take. This article may or may not be paywall:

 https://buffalonews.com/2018/04/12/why-pff-low-popular-bills-mock-draft-target-josh-allen-mayfield-rosen-darnold-jackson-rudolph-pro-football-focus-quarterback/

 

"In researching Allen, one prominent dissenting opinion comes from the analytic site Pro Football Focus. While most outlets consider Allen to be in the mix with USC's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen and Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield for the top four spots in a very deep quarterback class, PFF's draft guide ranks Allen a distant sixth, plugging him below Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and Louisville's Lamar Jackson.

Allen ranks 35th on their Big Board, making him a fringe first-round prospect at best."

 

 

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3 hours ago, wiley16350 said:

Actually Mayfield only had 4 more turnovers than Allen when you combine fumbles and Interceptions.  I do believe they're biased against Josh because I see it in their writings and the things they say.  I don't know how much that effects the grade but I do know that it distorts the narrative they have about him.  My post wasn't to defend PFF, it was to explain why their rating of Allen is what it is.  I think the rating is flawed because they put too much weight on big plays and not enough on the short to intermediate game that is necessary to win in the NFL.  Big plays matter but just the threat alone can be enough to make a team successful if their really good at the short and intermediate.  When it comes to grading QB's, I don't like their system mostly because of that.

I don't think they rate running and fumbling for QB's, do they?

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5 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Mayfield: 21 interceptions + 2 fumbles lost = 23

Allen: 9 interceptions = 4 fumbles lost = 13

 

23-13 = 10. ;)

 

Also worth noting Josh had +4 tds. 

 

I gotcha... PFF's problem is that they ignore football and look at arbitrary statistics that don't mean *****. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is really all that needs to be said about the conversation, honestly. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any metric that has enough weight to remove all of the above statistics in this conversation. Maybe just straight up QB wins, but we know who has more of those as well. 

 

 

And they forgot to factor in QB rushing #'s:

 

Allen =  109 rushes for 510 yards generating 42 first downs

 

Mayfield = 28 rushes for 141 yards generating 15 first downs.

 

IMO PFF has no credibility in their rankings.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Mark Vader said:

They hate White now because he made Duck Hodges look bad on that interception play he made against him.

 

Well hey then where's our dose o' Poyer and Levi Wallace "PFF Hate" cuz they too picked that Duck clean!?

 

Poyer under-valued Again!  And while you're at it, PFF-boys, can you hate on Shaq, Trent, and Milano?  All fumbles forced in that game....

 

😂

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PFF never lies, this has me very concerned

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21 hours ago, CNY315 said:

Wow. A 1st team All-Pro isn't a top 101 player lmao

Their formula is just way too advanced for us normies

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You will hear more informative football talk at your neighborhood watering hole on a Tuesday night than you will ever find at PFF.

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PFF Update: Mayfield caught soliciting hummers behind the Cheesecake Factory but he is still having a better offseason than Allen.

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9 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Mayfield: 21 interceptions + 2 fumbles lost = 23

Allen: 9 interceptions = 4 fumbles lost = 13

 

23-13 = 10. ;)

 

Also worth noting Josh had +4 tds. 

 

I gotcha... PFF's problem is that they ignore football and look at arbitrary statistics that don't mean *****. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is really all that needs to be said about the conversation, honestly. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any metric that has enough weight to remove all of the above statistics in this conversation. Maybe just straight up QB wins, but we know who has more of those as well. 

PFF is trying to analyze a game they know nothing about. Not a knock to any guys that never played but love the game. I only played til senior in high school. 

 

The value of players is determined by so much more than the raw numbers. It's just like the Tre White or any Bill not being in the top 101 players.  Tre would be a top 3 CB pick for me if I'm a GM. I bet at least 30 Gms agree Him and Allen are dogs , they listen to their eternal voices , they lead by example and the list goes on. 

 

I could give two Fs what his player grade is from a system that is flawed beyond belief , don't take situational football into account and they're just a mess..

 

All I care about - Do I think Josh Allen can bring a Lombardi to Buffalo and my gut always says Yes. 

 

The rest is irrelevant

Edited by JerseyBills
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Can we just ban PFF from the board ?

 

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, MJS said:

I don't think they rate running and fumbling for QB's, do they?

They include all aspects of QB play in the overall grade and have separate grades for passing and running.

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23 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Mayfield: 21 interceptions + 2 fumbles lost = 23

Allen: 9 interceptions = 4 fumbles lost = 13

 

23-13 = 10. ;)

 

Also worth noting Josh had +4 tds. 

 

I gotcha... PFF's problem is that they ignore football and look at arbitrary statistics that don't mean *****. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is really all that needs to be said about the conversation, honestly. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any metric that has enough weight to remove all of the above statistics in this conversation. Maybe just straight up QB wins, but we know who has more of those as well. 

Yup, this^^^
 

let’s all completely ignore everything they put out, meaning zero clicks,  what say you fellas & ladies? 
 

Go Bills!!!

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21 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Well, this is what you may chalk up to an "agenda" type item, where their pre-draft analysis has to be proven mostly right after the fact (whoopsies on that Rosen #3 and Rudolph #4 ranking...) and they heavily pushed Mayfield all the way at #1 to take. This article may or may not be paywall:

 https://buffalonews.com/2018/04/12/why-pff-low-popular-bills-mock-draft-target-josh-allen-mayfield-rosen-darnold-jackson-rudolph-pro-football-focus-quarterback/

 

"In researching Allen, one prominent dissenting opinion comes from the analytic site Pro Football Focus. While most outlets consider Allen to be in the mix with USC's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen and Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield for the top four spots in a very deep quarterback class, PFF's draft guide ranks Allen a distant sixth, plugging him below Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph and Louisville's Lamar Jackson.

Allen ranks 35th on their Big Board, making him a fringe first-round prospect at best."

 

Man, going back at that and looking at their grades, how could PFF have Mayfield graded so much higher than Allen for rushing?  I mean lots of other things, but RUSHING? 

SMDH.

 

I sure hope the Bills aren't one of the teams that relies on their analytics so much because I think their models must have some big-time flaws in them.

33 minutes ago, CircleTheWagons99 said:

Why are people still talking about poor football focus? 

 

One word:  Offseason

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11 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Can we just ban PFF from the board ?

 

If we're voting, I'm for it.

 

My magic 8 ball said "unlikely to occur"

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On 2/12/2020 at 3:34 AM, CorkScrewHill said:

https://thebuffalofanatics.com/2020/02/11/why-sports-media-hates-josh-allen/
 

well done article that lays out the reasons the media can be so harsh on Josh. He will be following up with why people give Josh too much praise in his next article 

 

That is a good read!  Thank you.

 

I like his quotes from Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report (August 2019 )  article “Buffalo Bills Josh Allen Starting to prove haters and doubters wrong:”

"Allen’s tools didn’t yield many results last season......But we also discovered he possessed a tool no one really knew about. Allen rushed for 631 yards and eight touchdowns in 2018. His NFL.com predraft scouting report had listed 20 “positive” bullet points, and “mobility” is only briefly mentioned in the 15th one. Scrambling and option running weren’t supposed to be part of his portfolio. ...... There’s a huge difference between a tall rookie with a cannon and a tall, fast rookie with a cannon. Allen may have looked like a clueless rookie running for his life last year, but that’s a step up from a clueless sitting duck. More importantly, if a skill as important as Allen’s mobility was largely overlooked by so many draft analysts on a prospect as scrutinized and criticized as he was, what else may we have missed? Perhaps the capacity to improve? Allen may still be a work in progress, but he’s no punchline. In fact, he’s what the Mayock types told us he would be: the high-upside guy with a lot to learn. The upside is still there, the learning continues, and Allen looks ready to help the Bills win a few games during his on-the-job training."

 

10 wins during OTJT 2019 season.  Better OL, better WR, less running for his life.  (I think Beane knew about the fast.  He kept saying we'd be surprised by his athleticism.)

 

And I like his conclusion:

Josh Allen haters and doubters come from all corners of the football world. Some of them have a seemingly personal hatred, the kind you have for a person who steals your boyfriend or girlfriend. Others seem too married to their analytics and data to see what’s happening on their TV screens. For others, it seems to be a matter of pride. Perhaps they hated too hard during the draft process and feel stupid recanting some of their analysis. Lastly, some people just like trolling Buffalo Bills fans. One thing is certain to this Bills fan: if someone can’t admit that Josh Allen has progressed since joining the NFL, I can’t take that person seriously regardless of their status or respect within the media or NFL community.
 

 

 

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Jason Wolf Article from TBN about analytics criticism of Josh Allen

I'm pretty sure this hasn't been put up yet.  Might deserve its own thread.  Doesn't seem to be paywalled - lmk if I'm wrong and I'll put more text.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2020/02/13/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-baker-mayfield-pff-pro-football-focus-football-outsiders-billsmafia-analytics-nfl-draft-2020/

 

"Let’s all try to remain civil, even though these number-crunching blowhards keep begging for the abuse.  Even though their analytics-based criticisms of Josh Allen border on disrespecting your family.  Even though these clowns wouldn’t know a real leader if George Washington himself stepped into the huddle. They’d be too busy whining about the way he cut down some cherry tree.   OK, OK, no more insults. Besides, they say it’s not personal."

(....)

Aaron Schatz, the head of Football Outsiders and an NFL analyst for ESPN, when asked to defend his criticisms of Allen:“He certainly seems like a hard worker. There’s never been any stories that he’s not. I just don’t think he’s ever going to have the accuracy to be a quality starting NFL quarterback.”

(....)

“When someone says something disparaging about the team or a player on the team, that to a lot of fans is like insulting their mother,” said Del Reid, one of the founding fathers of #BillsMafia. “So they’re going to come at you. And I don’t condone anyone who crosses a line and is just completely out of line to another human being, if they get into personal attacks or anything like that. But a lot of fans feel like by insulting Josh Allen, ‘Hey, that’s my team’s quarterback. You don’t insult my team’s quarterback. You don’t insult my mother. You don’t talk that way about my sister. It’s one thing if I say something about my brother, but you better not say a word or I’m there to defend him.’ ”
(....)

"Pro Football Focus might be the worst offender. [written tongue-in-cheek]That guy from Ireland, Sam Monson, is clearly biased."

“I think they’re definitely one of the more aggressive fan bases out there,” Monson said, “but I think there’s a lot of them. … It’s all directly connected to whether you say anything bad about a player that they have all this hope tied up in.

“I actually started keeping a little chart this year of all the 32 NFL teams and putting a little check mark up next to them if I manage to [upset] one of their fan bases on social media and see if I can work my way through the entire league, just over the course of analyzing the NFL season.”

 

So there you have it, Bills Mafia.  IMHO Monson pretty much just admitted he's out there trolling, saying stuff he hopes will trigger us.

I think fans should just stop reacting.  Be like "Yeah, it's PFF.  Buffalo vs Everybody, Whatever"

The article goes into a bit of detail I didn't know about how PFF makes their grades then finishes with this quote from Bills Mavia founder Del Reid:

“Analytics, it’s information, right? And it’s usable information for decision-making when it comes to sports,” he said, “but I think that you’re in a dangerous place if you’re too far on either end of the spectrum. If you don’t acknowledge the usefulness of them as a decision-maker in professional sports, I think that you’re going to be in trouble. …

“But I think when you swing too far to that end of the spectrum, I think you end up looking foolish, because all the stats in the world, all the data in the world, I don’t think can quantify adrenaline and the grittiness that a player might have in the midst of a professional football game. That’s something you can’t really put a number on. Football and sports in general aren’t played in a test tube.”

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