Josh Allen 2020 MVP odds

[ColoradoBills]

On 2/7/2020 at 10:21 PM, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 2/8/2020 at 12:21 AM, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

This is for sure how it will go down if he doesn’t improve. 
 

I’d like to draft a QB every year. 
 

Some people didn’t like the Allen pick because he’s a “project” so even if he pans out it will take 2-3 years to find out. 

On 2/8/2020 at 8:37 AM, Bferra13 said:

 

As someone posted before me, this is blind hate. If you feel this way after all the progress he made this year, you're never going to like him. Might as well find a new team because he is very likely here for the foreseeable future and beyond.

Why do you say he’s never going to like him? What if he becomes a really good quarterback then he likes him? 

[Gugny]

On 2/8/2020 at 12:21 AM, GreggTX said:

Is this a joke? You have a better chance to get hit by lighting on 10 consecutive Sundays than Josh Allen has of ever winning an MVP. The blind homerism for JA is just stunning. Where was his passing efficiency ranked in 2019? 26th? Well he was something like 33rd among starting QB's in 2018, so I guess 26th isn't all bad. My greatest fear is that McDermott and Beane will simply refuse to admit that they need to draft another QB until it costs them their jobs. Unless he gets a LOT better, he will hold this team back. Waiting to get flamed for telling the truth now.

 

57 minutes ago, Chemical said:

This is for sure how it will go down if he doesn’t improve. 
 

I’d like to draft a QB every year. 
 

Some people didn’t like the Allen pick because he’s a “project” so even if he pans out it will take 2-3 years to find out. 

Why do you say he’s never going to like him? What if he becomes a really good quarterback then he likes him? 

 

You two are so stinkin' cute together.  Bless your little hearts!

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

17 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

 

You two are so stinkin' cute together.  Bless your little hearts!

 

what are you talking about? Do you have something to say?

[Gugny]

11 minutes ago, Chemical said:

what are you talking about? Do you have something to say?

 

 

[CommonCents]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

No one votes on who won a horse race.

 

Bookies lay odds to even out the money and their exposure.  They take the vig. 
 

Goofy side bets like “MVP” don’t matter to them.  It’s a suckers bet so they try to maximize the sucker action.

 

look, after reading that some oddsmaker has Josh at “only” 40:1 and grouped with others you would traditionally consider better prompted you to say “these professional assessors really think Allen has a shot at MVP!”.  If you were inclined to bet,  you would say “I like those odds!”.

 

so...it worked

It probably has something to do with a running QB like Jackson just winning it, Tom Brady’s decline, Mahomes being oft hobbled etc.

 

40-1 is still crap odds. You’re right on that, but there is more reason behind the line change this season than fans just being suckers. 

[Putin]

Josh Allen’s MVP odds ( IMO ) will ALL depend  on what we do in free agency and the draft .....  

If we get him some REAL fire power I think it’s possible that we could start having this type of discussion ( probably around preseason)

GO BILLS !!!!

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

2 hours ago, Chemical said:

what are you talking about? Do you have something to say?

I understood @Gugny quite well!

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

19 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

I understood @Gugny quite well!

great. Let me know if either of you want to talk about football or the Bills. 

[Gugny]

30 minutes ago, Chemical said:

great. Let me know if either of you want to talk about football or the Bills. 

 

Let me know when you want to talk about something other than how much Josh Allen and the Bills suck.  Your shtick is old and tired.  If you hate the Bills so much, find another team.  Love ya, babe.

[Nester]

On 2/7/2020 at 1:22 PM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not only negative people want to believe Josh isn’t the answer, it’s also the people who were vocal about him being the wrong pick. These people have maintained their position and instead of cheering for the QB of their team they would rather not be wrong and thus always play devil’s advocate. It’s fine to be a level headed fan. As you pointed out, even gamblers are realizing the progress and greater potential for Allen. To not see it is an axe to grind.

he can be our answer and not the best player in the league at the same time......

[Chandler#81]

On 2/7/2020 at 5:22 PM, billsfan89 said:

I think Josh's chances at an MVP are slim. 5% or less. He doesn't need to be an MVP to get this team to win the division and get them in a position to 12 wins and a possible first round bye. Josh needs to be a top 10 QB or at least close. If I am pegging his stats I say he has to push 4k yards, 30TD's 10 or less INT's and a 60% or better completion percentage along with sub 3 lost fumbles and 350 rushing yards and 3+ rush TD's. 

So, you Don’t want Josh Allen then? Your pegged stats are pigeonholed for a typical, drop back, pocket passing pro QB. None of this criteria applies to him. Simply put, you have to change the metric when assessing Allen. He’s an enigma and only through assessing him on his own merit can you begin to anticipate his future. He’s a monster of a human. As big as Rothlesberger and 4X more athletic. He’s quick, fast, strong and tough. Most importantly, he’s smart and is drenched with the “It factor”. The ball literally whistles leaving his hand, allowing for jaw-dropping completions and throws no other QB even considers. 350 yards rushing? Are you anticipating he’ll miss half the season? Fumbles are a concern, but I really don’t see that improving much as the majority of them are because of his uncanny elusiveness on plays almost no one can consider, let alone pull off. For as raw as still is, he’s already accomplished 8 comeback wins and 10 game winning drives in just 28 starts. This on a team that hasn’t experienced a 10 win season since he began to walk. As @Alphadawg7 stated, your desired affect are now his baseline, though 60%+ completion percentile is the highest I suspect he’ll ever reach. Rhythm passing scenarios simply aren’t him. Although he’s shown he’s capable, he’s capable of so much more than this. I’m confident McBeane realize this and will add pieces designed to enhance Josh’s unique skill set. 

He doesn’t require the ‘norm’ passing criteria to be considered for MVP.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/8/2020 at 6:30 AM, Billl said:

This thread is basically a terrible take contest on both sides.  I get routinely criticized for my opinion on Allen, and I'm the most moderate one on here.  To this point, he's been a terrible QB that has shown flashes of greatness but who also makes way too many negative plays.  The game is clearly too fast for him at times, and he has a tendency to panic.  He also has a bad habit of tucking his elbow to his body and short arming passes, especially on deep throws.  There's the bad side of Josh.

 

The potential is real, though.  If he's going to unlock it, it's going to be this year.  A year ago, he was 150-1 for MVP, so his stock has risen since then.  After his third season as a starter, there shouldn't be anything left to debate.  There's no need to use the word "potential" every again.  He will be what the back of his football card says he is.  Whether that will be a franchise QB or a placeholder for the next guy in 2021 is yet to be determined.  As for me, I give him about a 40% chance of being the man.  I would have said about 10% when he was drafted and about 25% after last season.  He's tough to figure out.

 

"I'm the most moderate one on here"

 

is immediately followed by

 

"To this point, he's been a terrible QB"

 

Can't make this stuff up...

[GreggTX]

On 2/7/2020 at 3:22 PM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Not only negative people want to believe Josh isn’t the answer, it’s also the people who were vocal about him being the wrong pick. These people have maintained their position and instead of cheering for the QB of their team they would rather not be wrong and thus always play devil’s advocate. It’s fine to be a level headed fan. As you pointed out, even gamblers are realizing the progress and greater potential for Allen. To not see it is an axe to grind.

 

So if someone doubts his chances of success, that means they don't want him to succeed so they can have the exquisite pleasure of watching the team lose while they say "I told you so."? That is completely illogical. For the record, I want him to prove me wrong and so do most of (if not all) of the people that have doubts about him. Maybe he will, but he still has a very long way to go. Just keeping it real.

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 hours ago, GreggTX said:

 

So if someone doubts his chances of success, that means they don't want him to succeed so they can have the exquisite pleasure of watching the team lose while they say "I told you so."? That is completely illogical. For the record, I want him to prove me wrong and so do most of (if not all) of the people that have doubts about him. Maybe he will, but he still has a very long way to go. Just keeping it real.

You fall into one of the other categories. You are watching Josh’s progress with a personal filter of how you believe the progress should go. Should can be a very negative word because it invites comparison. Sounds like Josh isn’t progressing as fast Or the way you want. To say he isn’t progressing or showing growth is ignoring facts and ignoring what you are seeing with your eyes. 

5 hours ago, Nester said:

he can be our answer and not the best player in the league at the same time......

Agreed. I was using this thread to point out the progress he is making. I don’t know if Josh can be MVP next year. I would settle for similar percentage improvements in the areas of ; completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, yards, and fumbles. I believe if Josh accomplishes those things the Bills will be back in the playoffs and competing for the AFC. That is honestly what is important for me, and I bet Josh.

[BigBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Agreed. I was using this thread to point out the progress he is making. I don’t know if Josh can be MVP next year. I would settle for similar percentage improvements in the areas of ; completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, yards, and fumbles. I believe if Josh accomplishes those things the Bills will be back in the playoffs and competing for the AFC. That is honestly what is important for me, and I bet Josh.

 

Completely agree. I think if he can get to the 15-18th best QB passing with his running ability and an improved running game we can make the playoffs. Our schedule is brutal.

 

I'd love to see how he does with a bigger target. Duke is a great 5th WR, but not a true #1. I really want him to have that outlet under pressure to make those 50/50 balls to a WR.

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, CommonCents said:

It probably has something to do with a running QB like Jackson just winning it, Tom Brady’s decline, Mahomes being oft hobbled etc.

 

40-1 is still crap odds. You’re right on that, but there is more reason behind the line change this season than fans just being suckers. 

 

I don't think anyone's worried about Mahomes being often hobbled...he's missed fewer starts than Allen.

 

As for the odds, if they drop, we shall will know...

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

5 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Completely agree. I think if he can get to the 15-18th best QB passing with his running ability and an improved running game we can make the playoffs. Our schedule is brutal.

 

I'd love to see how he does with a bigger target. Duke is a great 5th WR, but not a true #1. I really want him to have that outlet under pressure to make those 50/50 balls to a WR.

I believe he already is in that range you presented. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

I understood @Gugny quite well!

 

Me too.  Especially his closing phrase.  Well played @Gugny

[LSHMEAB]

Randomly talked to a fellow Bills fan named Mike while visiting Las Cruces, NM. You here bro?

 

Guy was wearing a Bills shirt so I had to ask if it was just a shirt or if he was a Bills fan. We're everywhere!

 

Anyways, Josh's name never came up in the 20 minute convo. Wasn't intention. Just didn't happen. 

 

I feel like it's indicative of the sentiment most rational Bills fans have; WE'RE JUST NOT SURE. What else is there to say? He's shown flashes and has dramatically raised his FLOOR since draft day. I'm not convinced he's raised his ceiling, but I'm not convinced his ceiling isn't still very high. I enjoy the convo as much as anyone, but his play is really the only thing that matters. If he can improve his read/recognition/release, sky's the limit. But that's in no way a given. As one poster stated, his mechanics tend to break down under duress and this is where he needs to improve. When he properly analyzes the field and releases on time, the accuracy issue is greatly diminished. It's generally when he's hesitant that we see the wildly inaccurate throws. I know the kid is going to work his () off, so there is reason for optimism that he can improve this with experience. I just don't KNOW yet.