Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Sorry, Hap, but you're not right about this. It's you who is accounting twice for the Unamortized signing bonus. You're subtracting Cap Number (which DOES contain the unamortized bonus, called Prorated Bonus in your chart) and then subtracting dead money, which ALSO contains the unamortized bonus. Or more correctly, it IS the amortized bonus. You're using it twice. There's a reason your graphic there lists Cap Savings and Dead Money in pink and right next to each other. Because if he's cut, you need those two pieces of info to find total cap impact, you subtract one from the other. I Doan Theenk So Ceesco. But I can tell that nothing I say, or anyone else says except for perchance the mysterious "cap expert guy" will persuade you, so I'm outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 (edited) On 2/13/2020 at 11:08 PM, thebandit27 said: This is incorrect. Dareus is in the last year of his deal, and the only guaranteed money left is the $2.5M bonus. The rest of the $22.5M cap figure is accounted for by his base salary of $9M, his roster bonus of $10M, and his workout bonus of $0.5M...all of which do not get paid is he’s not on the roster. His cap hit is $22.5M if he’s kept; it’s $2.5M if he’s cut. Cap savings is $20M. What guaranteed $2.5M bonus? The money he was guaranteed at the signing of the new Jax deal was equal to his signing bonus plus his 2019 salary, so that's all paid out in 2019. The only $2.5M bonus mentioned on either Spotrac or OvertheCap is a guarantee based on 55% playing time (Spotrac) and checking Football Outsiders, he only played 210 of Jax's defensive snaps all year, 19.6% of snaps, though he also played on 193 STs snaps, 43.9% of those. He only appeared in six games, according to ProFootballReference. So I don't see him earning that bonus. If I've missed a guaranteed bonus somewhere, that would totally explain the confusion and I would loudly admit I was wrong wrong wrong. But if you're talking about the $2.5M called "Prorated Bonus" on OTC and "Signing" on Spotrac, then that bonus was paid a year and a half ago. You said that "the only guaranteed money left is the $2.5M bonus." If you're referring to that unamortized signing bonus money, that is not "left" by any definition, it's paid. But you're making a different argument here than all the folks trying to just subtract it out and have the result be $20M. If I've missed a bonus, that's my screw-up. What guaranteed bonus? Edited February 15, 2020 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: What $2.5M bonus? His guaranteed money in the new Jax deal was equal to his signing bonus plus his 2019 salary, so that's all paid out in 2019. The only $2.5M bonus mentioned on either Spotrac or OvertheCap is a guarantee based on 55% playing time (Spotrac) and checking Football Outsiders, he only played 210 of Jax's defensive snaps all year, 19.6% of snaps, though he also played on 193 STs snaps, 43.9% of those. He only appeared in six games, according to ProFootballReference. So I don't see him earning that bonus. But you're making a different argument here than all the folks trying to just subtract it out and have the result be $20M. If I've missed a bonus somewhere, that would totally explain the confusion and I would loudly admit I was wrong wrong wrong. What bonus? $2.5M of his $5M signing bonus counts against the 2020 cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said: $2.5M of his $5M signing bonus counts against the 2020 cap. Ah, I thought you were making a different argument. But no, same wrong argument that others have tried. That money isn't guaranteed. It was already paid, and therefore can NOT be saved by the Bills when they cut him. It will enter into the equation (ONCE) as dead money. Here's how it looks: Money Saved minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $20M Money Saved ($9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus) --- $2.5M Dead Cap --------------------------------- $17.5M Total Cap Impact The red-colored figure is the unamortized signing bonus. Notice there is red only on one side of the equation. Now, here's how you and others want to calculate this: Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) --- $2.5M Dead Cap ----------------------------------- $20M Total Cap Impact The problem is immediately visible, in red. You've got the same $2.5M there twice. It's simply wrong. When a guy is still on the team that $2.5M counts against his cap cost. NOT his dead cap, as there is no dead cap cost if the guy is still on the team. The instant he's cut, that money is taken out of cap cost and put into dead cap. Now the $2.5M counts against his dead money but not his cap cost. Cap Cost is the amount of money he will cost IF HE IS ON THE TEAM. It's an either/or. He's either on the team or he's off. If he's off the team, the $2.5M goes in dead money. It's certainly not saved by cutting him. If he's on the team the $2.5M goes in Cap Cost and not in dead money. The money has to be in one place or the other. It can't appear on both sides of the subtraction. When a guy is cut now, the team saves all the unguaranteed money he was going to be paid that year. They do NOT SAVE his full cap cost if he had stayed with the team. His signing bonus money is gone and MUST fall against the cap as dead money if there's money still unamortized when he's cut. Edited February 15, 2020 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Ah, I thought you were making a different argument. But no, same wrong argument that others have tried. That money isn't guaranteed. It was already paid, and therefore can NOT be saved by the Bills when they cut him. It will enter into the equation (ONCE) as dead money. Here's how it looks: Money Saved minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $20M Money Saved ($9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus) --- $2.5M Dead Cap --------------------------------- $17.5M Total Cap Impact The red-colored figure is the unamortized signing bonus. Notice there is red only on one side of the equation. Now, here's how you and others want to calculate this: Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) --- $2.5M Dead Cap ----------------------------------- $20M Total Cap Impact The problem is immediately visible, in red. You've got the same $2.5M there twice. It's simply wrong. When a guy is still on the team that $2.5M counts against his cap cost. NOT his dead cap, as there is no dead cap cost if the guy is still on the team. The instant he's cut, that money is taken out of cap cost and put into dead cap. Now the $2.5M counts against his dead money but not his cap cost. Cap Cost is the amount of money he will cost IF HE IS ON THE TEAM. It's an either/or. He's either on the team or he's off. If he's off the team, the $2.5M goes in dead money. It's certainly not saved by cutting him. If he's on the team the $2.5M goes in Cap Cost and not in dead money. The money has to be in one place or the other. It can't appear on both sides of the subtraction. When a guy is cut now, the team saves all the unguaranteed money he was going to be paid that year. They do NOT SAVE his full cap cost if he had stayed with the team. His signing bonus money is gone and MUST fall against the cap as dead money if there's money still unamortized when he's cut. At this point it’s just easier to say that you’re wrong. Several folks have broken it down on this board. The two online authorities—spotrac and OTC—have it clearly listed. A really quick google search would yield the following as the top results, all of which clearly state a $20M cap savings: https://www.bigcatcountry.com/platform/amp/2019/12/23/21021307/which-players-cap-casualties-jaguars-2020https://www.si.com/.amp-jaguars/nfl/jaguars/news/are-the-jaguars-better-off-releasing-marcell-dareus-or-finding-a-way-to-retain-him https://www.1010xl.com/2019/05/09/examining-jaguars-salary-cap-situation-now-and-into-future/http://www.sbnationradio.com/here-are-the-biggest-nfl-veterans-who-could-be-cut-this-offseason/ There’s just nothing that even remotely muddies the waters here. Edited February 15, 2020 by thebandit27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 5 hours ago, thebandit27 said: At this point it’s just easier to say that you’re wrong. Instead of writing again, this just needs to be repeated. Cap savings of $20 million if Darius is cut. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 (edited) 17 hours ago, thebandit27 said: At this point it’s just easier to say that you’re wrong. Several folks have broken it down on this board. The two online authorities—spotrac and OTC—have it clearly listed. A really quick google search would yield the following as the top results, all of which clearly state a $20M cap savings: https://www.bigcatcountry.com/platform/amp/2019/12/23/21021307/which-players-cap-casualties-jaguars-2020https://www.si.com/.amp-jaguars/nfl/jaguars/news/are-the-jaguars-better-off-releasing-marcell-dareus-or-finding-a-way-to-retain-him https://www.1010xl.com/2019/05/09/examining-jaguars-salary-cap-situation-now-and-into-future/http://www.sbnationradio.com/here-are-the-biggest-nfl-veterans-who-could-be-cut-this-offseason/ There’s just nothing that even remotely muddies the waters here. Weirdly, you didn't answer my objection. All you have to do to prove me wrong is answer these three questions: 1) Did I represent your opinion about the equation wrongly above? I'll repeat it here for ease. Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) minus $2.5M Dead Cap ____________________________________________________ equals $20M Total Cap Impact This is how you calculate it, right? It's not the way I calculate it, that's for sure, but it's yours, correct? If not, show me the equation you are using to calculate the total cap impact of cutting him. 2) The two figures are red represent the same one piece of money, correct? If not, tell me the difference between them. 3) So why are you accounting for the same one figure, the unamortized portion of the signing bonus, twice in your equation? That's all you have to do. Answer those three questions sensibly. The problem of course is that nobody can. Because that equation is framed wrong. But if you can sensibly answer those three questions, you'll have proved me utterly wrong. Howling that many other people disagree with me does nothing for your position, because none of them can answer those questions either. Oh, and Spotrac and OTC don't support your position. Their numbers are quite correct, I have no problem with any of their numbers. But at no point do they attempt to calculate total cap impact of cutting guys. The fact is this ... NOBODY has been able to answer my simple question. Why are you listing the same figure twice in your equation. You can't explain it. You didn't even try, and sensibly so, because there is no answer to it. But hey, prove me wrong. You or anyone. Address these three specific questions. I'm waiting. Edited February 16, 2020 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Weirdly, you didn't answer my objection. All you have to do to prove me wrong is answer these three questions: 1) Did I represent your opinion about the equation wrongly above? I'll repeat it here for ease. Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) minus $2.5M Dead Cap ____________________________________________________ equals $20M Total Cap Impact This is how you calculate it, right? It's not the way I calculate it, that's for sure, but it's yours, correct? If not, show me the equation you are using to calculate the total cap impact of cutting him. 2) The two figures are red represent the same one piece of money, correct? If not, tell me the difference between them. 3) So why are you accounting for the same one figure, the unamortized portion of the signing bonus, twice in your equation? That's all you have to do. Answer those three questions sensibly. The problem of course is that nobody can. Because that equation is framed wrong. But if you can sensibly answer those three questions, you'll have proved me utterly wrong. Howling that many other people disagree with me does nothing for your position, because none of them can answer those questions either. Oh, and Spotrac and OTC don't support your position. Their numbers are quite correct, I have no problem with any of their numbers. But at no point do they attempt to calculate total cap impact of cutting guys. The fact is this ... NOBODY has been able to answer my simple question. Why are you listing the same figure twice in your equation. You can't explain it. You didn't even try, and sensibly so, because there is no answer to it. But hey, prove me wrong. You or anyone. Address these three specific questions. I'm waiting. Dude. This is insane. The $2.5M is part of a $5M signing bonus from a 2-year deal that Dareus signed prior to the 2019 season. A signing bonus gets paid immediately but the cap hit is evenly distributed over the length of the contract. That means that $5M gets paid immediately, but $2.5M per year is applied to the cap regardless of whether or not Dareus is on the team. Because it’s guaranteed. Period. No more complicated than that. You keep using the term “dead cap”. What you mean by that is “dead money cap hit”. All that means is the amount of money that the player would count against this season’s cap if he’s cut. That’s it. So yes, both spotrac and OTC do in fact calculate the impact of a player being cut. Just click the little red “x” next to Dareus’ 2020 cap figure on spotrac and it’ll show you. I honestly am out of ways to explain this, and am totally incredulous as to how you could possibly not get it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: 1) Did I represent your opinion about the equation wrongly above? I'll repeat it here for ease. Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) minus $2.5M Dead Cap ____________________________________________________ equals $20M Total Cap Impact This is how you calculate it, right? It's not the way I calculate it, that's for sure, but it's yours, correct? If not, show me the equation you are using to calculate the total cap impact of cutting him. 2) The two figures are red represent the same one piece of money, correct? If not, tell me the difference between them. 3) So why are you accounting for the same one figure, the unamortized portion of the signing bonus, twice in your equation? I will answer your questions: 1) that isn't quite the equation. The first red text should read "amortised signing bonus" rather than "unamortised". 2) yes they do. 3) I am not. The way you work out the cap savings of cutting someone is to work out the total cap hit first. So everything counts in that sum. Then imagine you have two pots one marked "dead money" and one marked "savings". You then break down the total you ended up with from your first sum by putting each constituent part of it in one of the two pots. In Dareus's case in the "savings" pot you would have: $9.5m base salary $10m roster bonus $500k workout bonus In the "dead money" pot you would have: $2.5m amortised signing bonus. It isn't counting it twice in the same equation at all. You start by building the total cap hit up of its constituent parts. And then the second part of the process is breaking it down again: they are essentially two different sums. Edited February 16, 2020 by GunnerBill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: 1) Did I represent your opinion about the equation wrongly above? I'll repeat it here for ease. Cap Cost minus Dead Cap = Total Cap Impact $22.5M Cap Cost ($2.5M unamortized signing bonus + $9.5M base salary + $10M roster bonus + $500K workout bonus ) minus $2.5M Dead Cap ____________________________________________________ equals $20M Total Cap Impact This is how you calculate it, right? It's not the way I calculate it, that's for sure, but it's yours, correct? If not, show me the equation you are using to calculate the total cap impact of cutting him. That is how you calculate it. I would say "2020 Total Cap" iinstead of Cap Cost and "Cap Savings from Cut" instead of "Total Cap Impact" There is no "unamortized signing bonus". It is amortized signing bonus, and if several years remained they would get summed to this term. Those are nits, but I think they're important to understanding Quote 2) The two figures are red represent the same one piece of money, correct? If not, tell me the difference between them. They represent the same sum of money Quote 3) So why are you accounting for the same one figure, the unamortized portion of the signing bonus, twice in your equation? There is no unamortized portion of the signing bonus. That's the AMORTIZED portion of the signing bonus, which was paid at the start of the contract and is divided across several years for cap accounting purposes. It is being accounted for once. Here's how it works: 1) The signing bonus was already paid. 2) It gets added in to the 2020 Total Cap (what you call $22.5M Cap Cost), because that's how the amortization works to distribute a cap hit across several years. 3) To figure out what the cap savings will be if they guy gets cut, you have to subtract it out the amortized signing bonus from this year (and any future years) because it was already paid and you don't get it back It's the same sum of money, it belongs in the term on the left (because you divided the bonus across several years to minimize cap impact), but has to get subtracted out to generate the term on the right (because you already paid it and you don't get it back if you cut the guy) To try to use a timely analogy, think of how you calculate your income tax. 1) You calculate the total amount of taxes you must pay. (that would be analogous to "Cap Cost" in your equation, the term on the left) 2) You subtract out the amount that you have already paid through withholding (amortized signing bonus in your equation) 3) The difference is the amount you have to send in to the IRS (or maybe get back as a refund) - analogous to "total cap impact" in your equation If you subtract your withholding again from the amount you need to send in, and send in less the IRS will correct your misunderstanding. ? The same amount of money appears in two terms of the equation because the terms represent different things. One represents the total tax to be paid, which includes your withholding (or in the case of cap, includes any remaining amortized signing bonus that was paid years ago). But if you want to figure out how much to pay on April 15th, you subtract your withholding, because it was already paid (or in the case of cap, subtract remaining amortized signing bonus). Hope this helps. Not optimistic though. Quote Oh, and Spotrac and OTC don't support your position. Their numbers are quite correct, I have no problem with any of their numbers. But at no point do they attempt to calculate total cap impact of cutting guys. They both do exactly that thing. Especially with Spotrac's roster tool, that's exactly the point of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I will answer your questions: 1) that isn't quite the equation. The first red text should read "amortised signing bonus" rather than "unamortised". 2) yes they do. 3) I am not. The way you work out the cap savings of cutting someone is to work out the total cap hit first. So everything counts in that sum. Then imagine you have two pots one marked "dead money" and one marked "savings". You then break down the total you ended up with from your first sum by putting each constituent part of it in one of the two pots. In Dareus's case in the "savings" pot you would have: $9.5m base salary $10m roster bonus $500k workout bonus In the "dead money" pot you would have: $2.5m amortised signing bonus. It isn't counting it twice in the same equation at all. You start by building the total cap hit up of its constituent parts. And then the second part of the process is breaking it down again: they are essentially two different sums. 17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: That is how you calculate it. I would say "2020 Total Cap" iinstead of Cap Cost and "Cap Savings from Cut" instead of "Total Cap Impact" There is no "unamortized signing bonus". It is amortized signing bonus, and if several years remained they would get summed to this term. Those are nits, but I think they're important to understanding They represent the same sum of money There is no unamortized portion of the signing bonus. That's the AMORTIZED portion of the signing bonus, which was paid at the start of the contract and is divided across several years for cap accounting purposes. It is being accounted for once. Here's how it works: 1) The signing bonus was already paid. 2) It gets added in to the 2020 Total Cap (what you call $22.5M Cap Cost), because that's how the amortization works to distribute a cap hit across several years. 3) To figure out what the cap savings will be if they guy gets cut, you have to subtract it out the amortized signing bonus from this year (and any future years) because it was already paid and you don't get it back It's the same sum of money, it belongs in the term on the left (because you divided the bonus across several years to minimize cap impact), but has to get subtracted out to generate the term on the right (because you already paid it and you don't get it back if you cut the guy) To try to use a timely analogy, think of how you calculate your income tax. 1) You calculate the total amount of taxes you must pay. (that would be analogous to "Cap Cost" in your equation, the term on the left) 2) You subtract out the amount that you have already paid through withholding (amortized signing bonus in your equation) 3) The difference is the amount you have to send in to the IRS (or maybe get back as a refund) - analogous to "total cap impact" in your equation If you subtract your withholding again from the amount you need to send in, and send in less the IRS will correct your misunderstanding. ? The same amount of money appears in two terms of the equation because the terms represent different things. One represents the total tax to be paid, which includes your withholding (or in the case of cap, includes any remaining amortized signing bonus that was paid years ago). But if you want to figure out how much to pay on April 15th, you subtract your withholding, because it was already paid (or in the case of cap, subtract remaining amortized signing bonus). Hope this helps. Not optimistic though. They both do exactly that thing. Especially with Spotrac's roster tool, that's exactly the point of it. Run away while you still can... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Just now, thebandit27 said: Run away while you still can... Oh, I'm outta here. I've now done all I can think of to explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Oh, I'm outta here. I've now done all I can think of to explain. this is what happens when you trade Lamonica. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Foxx said: this is what happens when you trade Lamonica. End of the World predicted, News at 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said: damn you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 #saintdoug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codyny13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just scrolling down the page past those massive paragraphs full of numbers gives me anxiety. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 25 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Flip em a 5th for Calais Campbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: The Jags can drastically lower their cap with a handful of releases (Dareus alone is 20 million in savings) and they got a good haul for Ramsey but not having any solutions at QB just kills them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts