McShay - Bills pass on WR and take RB Swift in 1st.

[Trogdor]

23 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

While not just in Round 1, but *this* is how the Bills found themselves in horrible situations year after year. They'd focus on how to upgrade their team via Draft crossing their fingers the ideal player fell to them. But Beane has demonstrated and reinforced it in an interview, that he fills the needs via Free Agency and then uses the Draft to go BPA (for the most part...I don't think anyone does it as strictly as some project). IMHO, that's one reason why this team has gotten better with the roster overhaul as quickly as it has. He knew OL was a big problem, so he went and spent money on 4 new OL starters and some depth. Then he Drafted one for posterity and to get him to grow so they can focus on other areas in future years. I'd say WR / RB / DE / LB and CB all look about the same in terms of how he approaches it, again IMHO. 

 

I'm not saying I'm for or against a RB in the first round because for me, and I said this last year, Beane et. al. have shown very good decision making when it comes to FA and Draft...overall. Kelvin Lazy-A** Benjamin notwithstanding (which was a trade, I know). I trust Beane and what a secure and warm feeling to truly believe in the competency of the Front Office and Scouts and to see most if not everyone in their positions remaining with the team. Consistency and demonstrated excellence - what a breath of fresh air.

Lee Smith, Murphy, Star, Gore, Boldin, the Darby trade...I just don't see what you're seeing. I think that he has been pretty good in the draft, but even that is a ways off from being a sure thing.

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

SF put a lot of irons into the RB fire. They signed Mostert as a street FA, but they also gave solid FA money to both McKinnon and Coleman. That’s aside from bringing in Breida and JWJ as UDFAs. They cast a wide net for sure.

Every year we see nobodies shine behind great lines. Upgrade the line and sign whoever. If he isn't Christian McCaffrey, don't waste the pick.

[SoTier]

On 2/4/2020 at 9:23 AM, PIZ said:

If they can get a WR in FA and maybe one in Round 2, I would be OK with this. The Bills need an explosive RB.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/02/04/espn-todd-mcshay-buffalo-bills-dandre-swift/?fbclid=IwAR0AhXP1cCG0x6JE5RHQCfVK1SSwaQeY-G7ey3_dXlXbiAOx2ZTzlXCny7o

 

I think that it depends upon what happens in FA and in the draft.  They need another solid veteran WR next year, so going after one in FA makes sense.  Since this is a deep WR draft, there should be very good prospects available in Round 2 although they might be a season or a season and a half to develop.   

 

It's also possible that the WR that the Bills really like is gone by #22.   I don't want to see them trade up to take a WR because they are going to have to start to pay some of their own homegrown players if they are serious about becoming an NFL power, so they need to replenish their roster with youngsters on rookie contracts.

 

Having one good RB isn't enough for a playoff contending team.  The Bills offense suffered in 2019, especially later in the year, because neither Gore nor Yeldon were good enough.   Except for a great OL, a good/great running game is a QB's best friend.   If Swift is a better prospect at RB than any of the available WRs are prospects at WR, then they should go with Swift.  Don't sacrifice playmaking talent for need, especially in the first round.   The Bills need playmakers on both sides of the ball.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, aristocrat said:

 

so you literally want to only take a rb in the 3rd an find an undrafted guy to lead your rb group?  is that the only formula to finding rbs?

Basically, yeah. Paying RBs a lot of money and or taking them in the first round is a waste of premium assets IMO. There might be an exception to that rule here and there but I don't want to be the team trying to find the exception.

[thebandit27]

24 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

Every year we see nobodies shine behind great lines. Upgrade the line and sign whoever. If he isn't Christian McCaffrey, don't waste the pick.

Do we though? 8 of the top 9 RBs in rushing were 1st or 2nd round picks.

 

Now I agree that it’s a diminishing returns situation at RB. I just think that the idea that any-old-guy at RB will work is misguided.

[aristocrat]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Basically, yeah. Paying RBs a lot of money and or taking them in the first round is a waste of premium assets IMO. There might be an exception to that rule here and there but I don't want to be the team trying to find the exception.

 

My need for the offense is wr and rb.  1st and second round get it done.  Some good options for rb's possible in free agency but about zero for wr's as i dont think green and cooper are leaving.  If we get a rb in the first or second similar to a miles sanders...who caught 500 plus yards than you have a receiving threat which we need as well.   I hear ya on paying rb's but taking one later in the first doesn't pay a whole lot.  We need weapons on offense and rb is a need. 

[The Senator]

 

I think the Bills have bigger needs than RB - we'll have Singletary, Yeldon, and Wade - maybe Gore.

 

I see them taking a Defensive End - maybe Iowa's AJ Epenesa or 'bama's Terrell Lewis.

 

JMO

.

[Trogdor]

3 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Do we though? 8 of the top 9 RBs in rushing were 1st or 2nd round picks.

 

Now I agree that it’s a diminishing returns situation at RB. I just think that the idea that any-old-guy at RB will work is misguided.

Those guys are generally workhorses though and I think in Buffalo it's going to be a committee. I'm not saying go out and get 30+yr old RBs like they have been, but I just don't think they need a 1st rounder. I'd kill for a big guy that could replace the FB for blocking and pass catching, but also run when needed.

[BuffaloRebound]

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

[aristocrat]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

[Wsam4031]

YEa we need a Rb in round 1. CJ Spiller says hi. THis guy is a moron

[Trogdor]

2 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

That might be play calls more than anything. They just went away from him and it really hurt their offense this year.

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

 

guy went from 2100 all purpose yards, to 1800 to 1100...and a 17 mil cap hit next year.  that's insane

I hear ya.  But he’s still only 25 and his remaining contract isn’t terrible.  Basically 2 years $22m left with no guarantees.  

[thebandit27]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Trade for Gurley?  Rams supposedly looking to unload his contract.  We have plenty of cap space the next year or 2.  Might be able to get him for as little as a 3rd or 4th.  

His contract is prohibitive for LAR to trade. If they move him they’ll take a $25M dead money hit. If they keep him he costs $17M.

[BuffaloRebound]

15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

His contract is prohibitive for LAR to trade. If they move him they’ll take a $25M dead money hit. If they keep him he costs $17M.

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

I see the info you’re referencing. I don’t think that they can trade him prior to the start of the new league year (3/18/20), and his base salary becomes guaranteed on 3/15/20, so I’m not sure that the info is accurate.

[WideNine]

Don't see it.

 

BPA for this group (Allen aside) is usually a defensive blue chipper.

 

Where the Bills are sitting in the draft means there could be a bit of a run on a lean position before their pick which can have an impact on the BPA lens.

 

There are plenty of impact RBs taken outside the first round, so see them going in other directions early.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

That’s if they cut him.  If they trade him, they have $12m dead cap and save $5m in cap room this year.  

 

They would need someone to eat the roster bonus - so trading team then pays him 13 million in 2020, plus 9 in 2021.  Good luck finding a partner for that...  It would take another team dumping a bad contract back and some pick swaps.  The 5 mill in space doesn't really do much for them either - like that isn't bringing in an impact player.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

They would need someone to eat the roster bonus - so trading team then pays him 13 million in 2020, plus 9 in 2021.  Good luck finding a partner for that...  It would take another team dumping a bad contract back and some pick swaps.  The 5 mill in space doesn't really do much for them either - like that isn't bringing in an impact player.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

 

He’s still only 25 and 2 years removed from being NFL offensive MVP.  2 years $22m with no money guaranteed outside this year isn’t a huge risk especially to a team like the Bills who have tons of cap space this year.  His knee and contract are the reason they won’t get anything more than a 3rd or 4th rounder for him.  But the Bills are in need of a power home run back and have the cap space.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BuffaloRebound said:

He’s still only 25 and 2 years removed from being NFL offensive MVP.  2 years $22m with no money guaranteed outside this year isn’t a huge risk especially to a team like the Bills who have tons of cap space this year.  His knee and contract are the reason they won’t get anything more than a 3rd or 4th rounder for him.  But the Bills are in need of a power home run back and have the cap space.  

 

The issue is - if you want to pay a back 22 million over 2 years you can do that with drake or gordon and not have to give up anything.  And they're on a crunched timeline as i assume the bonus pays out on the 3rd day of the league year.