Mahomes contract predictions

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I completely reject this theory that has started to creep into the thinking on this board the past year or so that any moderately highly rated draft prospect comes into the league as the same and the ones who get well coached go on to be good and the ones that get badly coached fail. Guys come into the league at very different points and their potential at that point is also different.

 

Great point and we should, as a board, call this out and debunk it as much as we can otherwise it just constantly festers in the background until it rears its ugly head again. 

 

A lot has to do with football IQ and their competitive drive to get better, provide they have the natural athletic talent to go with it. NFL history is littered with athletic specimens that don't have a brain in their skull or don't care to hone their craft. The NFL actually has a lot of marginal athletic talent, but high football IQ and a strong fire within playing at good levels. Obviously the players with very poor athleticism washout as well. 

 

The definition of a "deep" draft is my biggest pet peeve right now LOL. 

[LSHMEAB]

13 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Mahomes would not have flourished under many HCs in the NFL. Being elite isn't the same as having a great coach to hide your weaknesses and push your strengths.

 

If you think he if was drafted under Marvin Lewis's Bengals, or Hue Jackson's Browns he'd throw 50 TDs you wouldn't understand football.

 

KC thought they could grab Cassell of the Pats* and make him awesome. How did that turn out?

 

Brees is not my benchmark for anything related to this team. I may have used him as an analogy and others have. Brees is a different animal than Allen. Allen has a higher upside but a much lower floor.

 

Systems, GMs, and coaching make QBs more than QBs are great by themselves. It's exceptionally rare a QB is so great that he excels the disaster of their team. If you think Teddy Bridgewater would lead many teams to 5-0 this year let me know which teams that would be.

You're making SEVERAL strawman arguments here. Of course Bridgewater would be EXTREMELY unlikely to go 5-0 with a bad team. Of course Mahomes wouldn't put up 50!!! TD's if he wasn't in a great system. 

 

None of that discounts the importance of the QB's ability independent the supporting cast. 

 

You're acting like it's an either or proposition when it clearly is not. Yes. The system matters. Alot. So does the QUARTERBACK. Neither of these ideas contradict the other.

[Cripple Creek]

On 2/2/2020 at 10:37 PM, NoSaint said:

Let’s hear them. 
 

done this year or next?
 

over/under:

 

39.5m per year 

5.5 years 

59% guaranteed

 

he’s going to be a wealthy young man.

North of 40.

 

Let’s say 42m/

60% guaranteed

[Nebillzfan]

Either way with his contract and the other ones coming up for other players they will be strapped for a bit. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

On 2/10/2020 at 12:06 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

The salary cap goes up every year. Okay, a new CBA is an unknown in that but the cap has consistently gone up $10-12m a year since 2014. You sign your QB to what appears a "massive" deal in any one year and within two years time it never looks that way. Sign Mahomes to $40m a year now..... it looks a huge chunk of your cap. Add $25m per year to the cap over the next two years and it looks more manageable by 2022.

 

Yes, the Chiefs will have to release some talent. That is the way paying a top flight QB works. But you can still win that way.

Can you name one team that win the Super Bowl again or went to the Championship game after giving their rookie QB the big contract? 
Can’t say NE, Brady always signed a team friendly deal. 
 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Can you name one team that win the Super Bowl again or went to the Championship game after giving their rookie QB the big contract? 
Can’t say NE, Brady always signed a team friendly deal. 
 

 

What, like the 49ers with Jimmy G? Falcons with Matt Ryan? Denver with Manning? They all went to Superbowls while having a QB in the top 5 or 6 of $ per year. 

 

There have been teams recently - the Chiefs, Rams, Eagles, Seahawks - who have loaded up around a QB on a rookie deal and that is a way to win too. It is why I have advocated the Bills taking a few risks this year to load up around Allen - if he takes another step they have a window to make a run. But it isn't the only way to have success. 

[Tcali]

On 2/9/2020 at 2:15 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

No he wouldn't. 

 

Why is it? If I am Dak Prescott I am not settling for being between Jimmy G and Kirk Cousins. That is what Jacoby Brissett signed for. I am Dak there is no way you can tell me I am equal to Jacoby freaking Brissett. I am seeking to be in the Goff and Wentz range. 

 

 

so everyone suffers cuz brisset is wildly overpaid by a dumranchise? 

[JetsFan20]

On 2/9/2020 at 4:09 PM, BigBillsFan said:

 

You do know Jacoby Brissett makes $15 mil a year year right?  $33 does not equal $15 mil.

Jimmy G is paid $27 mil/yr

Cousins is paid $28 mil a year.

 

QBs get paid based on projection of what other QBs will be paid in the future. Dak is still way too unproven with Cooper at WR as the only way he could even have any success.

 

I'd pay him $25 or let him walk.

 

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

[JetsFan20]

On 2/10/2020 at 11:27 AM, Chicken Boo said:

Depends on how competitive Pat would like his teams to be.  I understand wanting to be paid what you're worth, but he's going to have to weigh that with keeping talent on the rest of the roster.

 

I understand your point, but folks forget Mahomes is still a very young player. Think about how much better Russell Wilson got over the years-its scary to think about how good that kid could be. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

 

This is 100% correct. Same with Derek Carr. Remember when for about 2 months he was the highest paid player in football there was outrage. He is now the 11th highest paid QB. The point is the market just keeps going up and while revenues are up and the cap is going up that isn't going to change. The new CBA is a bit of an unknown but one shouldn't expect major revisions in the approach. 

[BigBillsFan]

7 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

 

Everybody ripped the Cousins contract, but three years later it doesn’t look that bad.  The same feeling will be had about Dak three years from now IMO.

 

Its easy to rip Prescott, but hes better than any QB the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins have had in nearly 25 years. These guys are really tough to find. 

 

Is getting rid of your QB so you can give Byron Jones and Amari Cooper a bad contract the right decision?  

 

I'm more of the opinion that you take the Matt Moores/Andy Daltons/Trent Edwards (pre-concussion)  of the world who would be 8% of your cap (Moore is a backup, but if he was a starter I think he would be close to Dalton). You at least have a shot of a great defense and decent running game.

 

I really think the best franchise model which is copy potential is the Steelers. Yes Big Ben turned out to be elite, but even if he wasn't they still would have won a lot of games, and won a SB playing as a game manager. Even guys like Duck Hodges can win in their model.

 

The reason why our QB system sucked so long is we didn't invest in QBs in the draft. I'm of the belief you draft a QB in rounds 2-4 (if the talent fits) every 2 years until you get a solid one or roll the dice in the 1st with a great QB out of college. If they turn out to be elite then pay them or find one in the Dalton mold that so you can continue to play elite defense and run the ball.

 

I wanted the Bills to pick up Carr in the 2nd, Watson in the 2nd, Barkley in the 3rd (years back) and a bunch of no-names games that flamed out in the 3rd and 4th round. If one turns out to be elite you pay them and if not you go to next one. If one is a solid mid-tier guy you extend him as a mid-tier (Daltoneque contract) and save money for D & Oline.

 

I think drafting a 1st rounder QB is too risky unless you had a strong pedigree in college. It polarizes fans to root for them even if they suck and it puts too much pressure on the front-office to make him work or look like a clown. A 2nd rounder like Rudolph can get benched for Duck Hodges to try to win and no one cares. Try doing that to a 1st rounder and the fans start to revolt (Losman vs Edwards debates).

 

Bringing in guys like Fitz, Orton, Taylor, old Bledsoe, etc. who are older guys hoping to be serviceable is just silly. Invest in the pick, save the money and put it back it lines.

[Zerovoltz]

KC has the following players under contract THROUGH 2021 (2 more seasons)

 

Hill

Kelce

Mathieu

Clark

Fisher

Schwartz

Hitchens

Hardman

Butker

Okafor

Thornhill

Nhadi

Saunders

D Thompson

....Mahomes.

 

That's most of the core.

 

Starting QB, WR, WR, OT, OT, TE, MLB, S, S, DT, DT, K...and possibly RB.

 

Chris Jones is the one long term guy we don't have done at this time (and maybe they'd like Charvarious Ward to sign long term, but he's under contract through 2020)

 

That's ALOT of star power already accounted for, no matter what they do with Mahomes.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 hours ago, Tcali said:

so everyone suffers cuz brisset is wildly overpaid by a dumranchise? 

 

 

...exactly......Dak turning down $33+mil/yr is laughable as well...……..

[papazoid]

6 yr / $250 mil

 

$125 mil  guaranteed

[Billl]

People are looking at this backwards.  Mahomes having a market setting contract helps the Chiefs more than it hurts them because he's actually worth it.  If Pat gets $40,000,000 someone like Carson Wentz who is only 50% as good is still going to get 90% of that amount.  Would you rather have Mahomes at $40m or Wentz at $36m?  That's an easy win for the teams that have legit stars.  

 

The teams with good but not elite QBs on second and third contracts are the ones who are going to be hurt the most by this.  That's part of the reason this is such a huge year for Josh.  If he has a season in 2020 similar to or slightly better than 2019, what do you do with him?  He's going to command $35,000,000 a year for 5 years.  Do you pay him?

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

People are looking at this backwards.  Mahomes having a market setting contract helps the Chiefs more than it hurts them because he's actually worth it.  If Pat gets $40,000,000 someone like Carson Wentz who is only 50% as good is still going to get 90% of that amount.  Would you rather have Mahomes at $40m or Wentz at $36m?  That's an easy win for the teams that have legit stars.  

 

The teams with good but not elite QBs on second and third contracts are the ones who are going to be hurt the most by this.  That's part of the reason this is such a huge year for Josh.  If he has a season in 2020 similar to or slightly better than 2019, what do you do with him?  He's going to command $35,000,000 a year for 5 years.  Do you pay him?

 

If he is the same I don't pay him after next year. I take the 5th year option and wait and see what year 4 brings. If he can improve by even half as much as he improved in 2019 I think yes, you pay him.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If he is the same I don't pay him after next year. I take the 5th year option and wait and see what year 4 brings. If he can improve by even half as much as he improved in 2019 I think yes, you pay him.

And this is why it is imperative to swing big this year in giving him the tools, so you have more information on what we need to do with him. I cannot reconcile myself to buy on a WR prospect who will need 1-2 years to develop; I need a guy who can hit the ground running. This is also why I see TE and RT as big needs for us. Give Josh the tools and talent before we have to pony up some serious $$$

[T master]

In any language it will be way to much money to throw a football just saying ...

[Yav]

Who cares? He plays in KC and has nothing to do with the Bills. He played like ***** in the Super Bowl and was a joke of a SB MVP. Had Sherman actually covered glass Joe SF would have won the game. 

[eanyills]

10 hours ago, Yav said:

Who cares? He plays in KC and has nothing to do with the Bills. He played like ***** in the Super Bowl and was a joke of a SB MVP. Had Sherman actually covered glass Joe SF would have won the game. 

1) I would assume that football fans care, mainly the football fans discussing it for five pages.

 

2) Buffalo Bills fans may also care considering that we have a young QB whose next contract will be based on the market that Mahomes sets.

3) You also care considering that you spent moments of your free time reading and commenting on it. And guys like you always respond about how much you don’t actually care, so don’t bother.

 

#badtakes

Edited February 21, 2020 by eanyills