PFF's QB Annual Report on Allen

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Sure but that’s one player. They’re ranking thousands of players; of course people will disagree with some rankings. 

It’s a comically bad ranking. Can you look at a ranking like whites and honestly keep a straight face? 
 

as were their team rankings all year.... listen I’ve always approached PFF as a tool in the toolbox of evaluation. Not the end all be all but a solid tool.... this year they had quite a few rankings that seemed laughably bad. It’s hard for me to take them very seriously anymore. I’m only one guy but that’s my take. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Stank_Nasty

[Sherlock Holmes]

8 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Yeah, it's a stinker.    

 

Pro Football Reference shows Singletary catching 70.7% of his 41 targets.    Meanwhile, Knox caught only 56.0% of his 50 targets .    Of the 37 TEs that had at least 40 targets last year, Knox ranked 36th (ahead of only T.J. Hokenson at 54.2%).   The average for the 37 was 68.8%!     The median was 69.1%.

 

Knox may turn into Tarzan some day but the Bills need to address TE in free agency, IMO.    They can't afford the risk that he plays like Cheata next year.

 

BTW, Austin Hooper ranked 6th (77.3%) and Hunter Henry 12th (72.4%)...

 

 

 

Ouchie, Hockstrap bringing the disappointment!! 

 

Also very surprised Beasley dropped that many passes, I think he just needs to get adjusted to Allen's cannon

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

So what inaccurate QBs have high completion percentages?  What other accurate passers but finished dead last in the league in completion percentage in consecutive seasons?

Lamar Jackson is not accurate but had a high completion percentage. Cam Newton has had high completion percentages in the past. He is very inaccurate.

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right.

 

Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not. 

Right. We all know about the deep ball issue, but he was also a split second late on many occasions which lead to sloppy footwork and errant passes. If he's able to improve his ability to scan the field, I think all the accuracy numbers will improve a great deal.

 

If he CAN improve his read/recognition issues, the sky's the limit. It's easier said than done though.

[Penfield45]

Allen isn't the most accurate QB but cmon, his completion % is largely due to the system Daboll runs and the lack of talent on offense. Knox's drop rate is abysmal, and a practice squad WR in Duke Williams came off the bench and made the most impressive catches of the year in our playoff game. That should tell you how much talent we lack on offense. 

 

We never used Beasley or Brown on quick slants, we hardly ran screen passes, Allen almost never checks it down. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Simply put, Allen as a football player is an average starting QB. Allen as a passer is a bad QB. 

 

But, he's an improving passer. If he can keep improving and still add 500+ yards and 7+ TD's on the ground he'll be a good starting QB.

[K-9]

10 hours ago, finn said:

This is as a good an opportunity as any to ask a question that I've always wanted to ask: Why is this board down on PFF? I'm not defending them, just curious. 

My problem with PFF is that all of their analysis is done in a vacuum and lacks context as a result.

[CSBill]

15 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Yeah, it's a stinker.    

 

Pro Football Reference shows Singletary catching 70.7% of his 41 targets.    Meanwhile, Knox caught only 56.0% of his 50 targets .    Of the 37 TEs that had at least 40 targets last year, Knox ranked 36th (ahead of only T.J. Hokenson at 54.2%).   The average for the 37 was 68.8%!     The median was 69.1%.

 

Knox may turn into Tarzan some day but the Bills need to address TE in free agency, IMO.    They can't afford the risk that he plays like Cheata next year.

 

BTW, Austin Hooper ranked 6th (77.3%) and Hunter Henry 12th (72.4%)...

 

 

The T.J. Hokenson  stat and comparison is interesting, who got the better value out of their pick, Hokenson at 8 in the first, or Knox in the 3rd? I would say the Bills won that strategy decision. I like Knox, and think he has big upside. Nonetheless, he has to improve significantly as a pass catcher--when he does that, the 3rd Round pick will be a steal.

[tcampbell104]

3 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

The T.J. Hokenson  stat and comparison is interesting, who got the better value out of their pick, Hokenson at 8 in the first, or Knox in the 3rd? I would say the Bills won that strategy decision. I like Knox, and think he has big upside. Nonetheless, he has to improve significantly as a pass catcher--when he does that, the 3rd Round pick will be a steal.

knox  is looking to run before he catchs the ball. i think the more experienced he gets the better he will be.

[Chaos]

Does PFF or anyone else evaluate drops on  critical situation basis.  For example the pain of a drop 12 yards up the field on third and 12 is far more painful, than dropping a checkdown behind the line of scrimmage on first and 10?

Edited January 29, 2020 by Chaos

[DCOrange]

 

27 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Does PFF or anyone else evaluate drops on  critical situation basis.  For example the pain of a drop 12 yards up the field on third and 12 is far more painful, than dropping a checkdown behind the line of scrimmage on first and 10?

 

I think ESPN and PFF technically keep track of this but it isn't something they make public to anyone. But it's a factor in ESPN's QBR rating and PFF's EPA metrics.

Edited January 29, 2020 by DCOrange

[The Jokeman]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

 

I think ESPN and PFF technically keep track of this but it isn't something they make public to anyone. But it's a factor in ESPN's QBR rating and PFF's EPA metrics.

That's why stat analysis alone isn't a great measure of a QB. As if look at numbers Sam Darnold out played Josh. Yet if watch games it's obvious that Allen is a better playmaker and IMHO a better QB than Darnold. 

[DCOrange]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Lamar Jackson is not accurate but had a high completion percentage. Cam Newton has had high completion percentages in the past. He is very inaccurate.

I think this also goes back to the difference between being truly accurate versus giving your WRs a chance. For example, Allen was dead last in terms of his accuracy according to PFF, but they also track "on-target %". Here's how Allen fared at each level of the field:

 

BLOS (behind line of scrimmage): 96% vs. 94% NFL average

0-9 yards: 79% vs. 82%

10-19 yards: 70% vs. 63%

20+ yards: 31% vs. 42%

 

The 0-9 yard range is by far the most volume, so his on-target % was ultimately 28th in the league, but considering where he was last year, I think there's reason for optimism there.

 

Compare this to Lamar, whose accuracy % was 21st out of 25 on their chart. But his on-target % was actually above average: 14th out of the 35 that they ranked.

[colin]

so allen obviously has flaws he has partially overcome or has to work to overcome.

 

his deep ball was a mess this year, some of that is scheme/protection, some of it is our WRs, but a large chunk is simply on him.  he throws ropes rather than rainbows most of the time and sometimes the balls needs more touch.

 

his fumbling is simply a problem and one he obviously has to overcome.  he might not ever be a drew brees nearly zero turnover guy, but he can cut them in half at least.

 

he was super erratic and was a turnover machine until week 4, his worst game by far vs NE, and then as alpha pointed out, he was basically our entire O the rest of the season and had 4 turn overs in like 12 games, which is really good.  he really was second to only Ljax in total TDs over that span?  that's kinda insane.

 

groups like PFF and stat queens will always rate a phil rivers or matt ryan miles ahead of a guy like allen (and it seems joe flacco and duck hodges too, which shows you what a joke this stuff can be) but he produced like 85+% of our TDs and more than any other player after week four kinda shows he's not the problem w the team and is doing pretty good over all.

 

our team obviously has holes, but QB really isn't the big one by far.  the fact that singletary, a rook rb who doesn't have top end speed, and allen are our only real play makers is a huge problem.  we just don't have a good O and the lack of playmakers is the biggest issue.

[finn]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

My problem with PFF is that all of their analysis is done in a vacuum and lacks context as a result.

This I have noticed. How can they judge a play if they don't know the players' respective assignments and, as you say, the context of down, distance, personnel, situation, etc. Plus, they grade many of Allen's throws as interception-worthy without grasping that he has the arm to make them, the whole point of the frequent comment that he is "one of the few quarterbacks who can make that throw." I wonder how much time they put into their analysis.

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, finn said:

This I have noticed. How can they judge a play if they don't know the players' respective assignments and, as you say, the context of down, distance, personnel, situation, etc. Plus, they grade many of Allen's throws as interception-worthy without grasping that he has the arm to make them, the whole point of the frequent comment that he is "one of the few quarterbacks who can make that throw." I wonder how much time they put into their analysis.

If the ball is getting to the WR relatively easily, it isn't an interception worthy throw. The INT-worthy throws are when he throws passes that go through a DB's hands, get dropped by the DB, stuff like that. For example, with the first Jets game, I think they most likely did not ding him (at least not much) for the INT that went off the WR's hands and into the hands of the LB, but they definitely dinged him for the one where their safety dropped the INT.

 

Regarding the other parts, they can for the most part tell what players' assignments are. I'm sure there's some that they get wrong, but for the most part, if you're watching All-22 film, it's pretty easy to see for example if a CB blows their assignment in zone coverage or to see if a WR runs the wrong route. It's probably trickier with the trenches.

[CBennett]

20 hours ago, yungmack said:

So is Singletary's.

They were both  ROOKIES and they didnt have a lot of work or experience...aka they can work to get better.....look at the effect BOTH players actually had though....Yes they both had drops but Singletary wasnt used a lot as a pass catcher....Knox was a "raw" talent same deal......he just didnt have a lot of catches/time at TE being a pass catcher...Im betting since they both showed they can catch it with work they both get better....id be more concerned if they had brought in a guy that had 4-7 years in the league and then they had that kind of % drops....but as a Rookie and neither saw a ton of work pass catching...I guess its not surprising...

 

And think on this  Knox for ROOKIE TE was

 

5th in receptions at 28

2nd in the entire NFL for rookies in yards behind only Fant at  388

4th in average per reception

4th in yards per game

2nd in longest TD catch again only behind Fant at 49yds

tied for 4th in TD's

and 4th in first down % among TE with over 20 receptions

 

Knox was a 3rd rounder..the guys he is going up against for those stats are all what I believe first or 2nd rounders...... and both Fant and Hockenson got a lot more looks in the receiving game college wise so they were more accomplished pass catchers coming out....I guess you could ask......would you rather spend a first rounder on Fant or a 3rd on Knox then wait for about 3-4 years and see what u have...im thinking positional drafting wise 1st vs 3rd Bills will win this one..

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&statisticPositionCategory=TIGHT_END&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_RECEPTIONS&tabSeq=1&season=2019&experience=0&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&qualified=true

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by CBennett

[The Frankish Reich]

22 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Yeah, it's a stinker.    

 

Pro Football Reference shows Singletary catching 70.7% of his 41 targets.    Meanwhile, Knox caught only 56.0% of his 50 targets .    Of the 37 TEs that had at least 40 targets last year, Knox ranked 36th (ahead of only T.J. Hokenson at 54.2%).   The average for the 37 was 68.8%!     The median was 69.1%.

 

Knox may turn into Tarzan some day but the Bills need to address TE in free agency, IMO.    They can't afford the risk that he plays like Cheata next year.

 

BTW, Austin Hooper ranked 6th (77.3%) and Hunter Henry 12th (72.4%)...

 

 

 

50 targets seems like a lot, but remember: we are still in small sample size territory here. I’m not sure what PFF used as the denominator for “catchable” balls. Let’s say it was in line with Allen’s overall 73.5 percent. That would mean Knox was thrown about 37 catchable balls, and he dropped about 7.  Three fewer drops, and that drop percentage falls all the way down to about 10 percent, which is still too high, but not outrageous. And factor in that he is also one of the few guys who actually had any yards after catch, which tends to offset in part the drops. Bottom line: I’m not worried. Yet. Check back with me in January 2021 ....

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, tcampbell104 said:

knox  is looking to run before he catchs the ball. i think the more experienced he gets the better he will be.

 

He said that himself in his locker-clean out presser: that he had some bad drops, that they were easy balls where he was looking to run before he caught the ball, and that "eye discipline" would be a focus of his off-season work.

 

Question for anyone who knows - how does a WR work on "eye discipline"?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

50 targets seems like a lot, but remember: we are still in small sample size territory here. I’m not sure what PFF used as the denominator for “catchable” balls. Let’s say it was in line with Allen’s overall 73.5 percent. That would mean Knox was thrown about 37 catchable balls, and he dropped about 7.  Three fewer drops, and that drop percentage falls all the way down to about 10 percent, which is still too high, but not outrageous. And factor in that he is also one of the few guys who actually had any yards after catch, which tends to offset in part the drops. Bottom line: I’m not worried. Yet. Check back with me in January 2021 ....

 

Just a minor correction here, Frankish:  The drop percentage goes off the targets, not after the adjustment for "catchable balls".

 

Pro-football-reference, which uses the NFL next gen stats as far as I know, credits Knox with 10 drops, 20% of his 50 targets.

So if we posit he had about 37-38 catchable balls, there's some "good news/bad news":

-the good news is that he's getting his hands on pretty much everything catchable that comes his way, and could be on track to become that 75-80% catch % TE we need

-the bad news is it means the actual % of catchable balls he dropped could be more like 25%.

 

Beasley had almost as much in YAC (4.9 vs 5.1).  McKenzie had more, but I believe that's attributable to the shovel-passes on the successful jet sweeps.