Interview with Jordan Palmer on Allen offseason plans

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's on the film that our RB coach is already working on that with Josh and improvement can be seen since week 10 (Cleveland).  You can see on film when he is running and being tackled he now puts the ball in that slanted "claw" grip the Bills RB coach teaches and tries to wrap his left arm over it.

 

There are three remaining problem areas where I'm not sure what one does:

1) When Josh is running and extends the ball going for the 1st down or the TD.  Most of these he has been ruled down before the ball comes out but it's only a matter of time before he's not, or where they don't have conclusive evidence to overturn a fumble ruled on the field.

2) When Josh is transitioning from throwing to running or vice versa, and is holding the ball in a throwing grip.  The ball is vulnerable to the kind of hit Mercilus put on it at that point - at the opposite end and on the opposite side to the QB's grip.  Not sure what the answer is - can he drill more to keep two hands on the ball until he actually raises it to throw?  make quicker decisions to run/throw would probably be good, but we also want him to be more patient about waiting for receivers to come open before he just takes off.

3) Strip sacks.  Pretty much every QB will fumble if he's blindside hit when he's about to throw.  Stop asking rookie or young TE to block pro-bowl DE or OLBs is my answer.  That's a "plan where you lose your hat" - a Bad Plan.

Hap -

 

I think you're actually focused here on a bigger issue that helps us see in detail what it means for a QB to learn, grow and mature.    You're right about these three things, and if you could get inside the Bills, you would find that there are twenty or thirty or fifty more details like this that are on a formal or informal list of details where Allen needs improvement.   Each young QB has a list (well, except maybe Mahomes, who seems mature beyond his years, but let's see what the next few years bring).   The list includes little mechanical items, it includes things about about pre-snap defensive alignments, it includes things like deciding when to throw the sideline pass and when the corner is sitting on it, it includes mechanics on deep balls, and mechanics when he's rolling right or left.   

 

The list is also about awareness and being in the moment.    So when you look at a Rodgers or a Brees, you can see the full package.    They've learned not to fumble, in part because they've been taught and learned good mechanics in holding onto the ball, but they've also developed more complete and nearly instantaneous awareness of what's going on around them, so they know when the fumble-moments are coming or have arrived.   When a young QB has learned and internalized most of these little lessons, like the ones you're talking about, and he's developed awareness, then he starts getting good, because he can look for and see smaller opportunities, and he can decide in an instant the risk-reward of that opportunity and whether to pull the trigger. 

 

And when you see that it's that kind of ongoing learning and practice, the kind of dedication that allows you to get better at smaller and smaller details, more obscure points, little tricks, you can see why McDermott puts so much emphasis on players who are competitive, who want to work, and who are interested in learning.   McDermott doesn't want a QB who stops learning.   He wants Allen to get better every day, every game, every season.   That's why Belichick and Brady are such a good match - Brady always wants to get better, and Belichick always has something more to teach him.   

 

And that's why I have so much confidence that Allen's going to be a star.   Allen is going to continue to improve, year after year, improve in the mental game and in the physical game.   His physical skills, especially his speed and running ability, may decline, but his throwing won't - it'll improve for another five years, and his knowledge of the game will continue to improve because he's smart and a dedicated learner.   

 

We had a little discussion earlier about whether we were disappointed in Allen's progress in 2019 - I was and you weren't, and I'm not sure about how you feel about the future, but I'm about as sure as I could be.   Allen is going to be a stud QB for many years.

 

And I think that if McBeane were candid, they'd tell you they know already they're extending Allen and paying him whatever they have to pay him.   The only way that doesn't happen would be if somehow Allen we really blew up in 2020 and had a really serious regression, throwing more INTs than TDs, something like that.   But I think he's already past that - I think he's just a good young QB on the road to greatness.  How much greatness is yet to be determined, but he's a keeper.   

Edited January 27, 2020 by Shaw66

[BuffaloBob]

On 1/24/2020 at 2:36 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

IMUO (in my uneducated opinion) part of Allen's problem is that his technique still breaks down under pressure, so I hope that's something they'll work on.

This happens for most humans at first when making drastic changes in approach. Even if not consciously, it’s easy for the brain to revert back to what you knew best until those new habits become completely integrated. 
 

I also think part of the problem is simply information overload. How much can one learn and integrate as habit over a short time frame, both physically and mentally. 
 

Josh played football for a rural farm town high school. So did I. Our head coach was our social studies teacher who was a former marine who was more worried about if your hair could be seen from the back of the helmet than what kind of plays we were running. 
 

Josh then played JUCO football his first year, red shirted at Wyoming the next and then played two seasons at Wyoming. I doubt Josh got much in the way of structured coaching regarding his footwork, his delivery, his touch, etc. Wyoming is not Louisville, USC or Oklahoma. 
 

I’m sure the Bills never planned for him to even play his first season and he got thrown in and had to use his instincts and sheer athletic ability to overcome his less than optimal mechanics, and his limited knowledge of reading defenses, etc. He actually did pretty well, but he needed a complete overhaul to be successful in the NFL. 
 

I think his lack of success this season on the long ball has a lot to do with info overload. His makeover into a timing passer in the shorter routes probably required all of his capacity for learning and doing. His long ball was probably greatly de-emphasized in favor of the higher priority of making him over to operate as an NFL pocket passer. 
 

I believe, with his work ethic, that he will take another significant step, by not only reinforcing what he’s already learned, but also refining his touch on deeper routes. I think he’s come a long, long way, and he will continue that this year. Kid’s never had anything handed to him, and he will put in  the hard work necessary to reach his potential. We all will be very happy. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by BuffaloBob

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The list is also about awareness and being in the moment.    So when you look at a Rodgers or a Brees, you can see the full package.    They've learned not to fumble, in part because they've been taught and learned good mechanics in holding onto the ball, but they've also developed more complete and nearly instantaneous awareness of what's going on around them, so they know when the fumble-moments are coming or have arrived. 

 

Overall, good post but kind of funny that you mention this so I'm going to zero in on the fumble thing.  According to his gamelogs, Rodgers has 7 fumbles this season of which 5 were lost.  

 

Brees is the Witch (warlock?): he didn't fumble at all this year! Over his career, he averages about 5 fumbles/season and recently, he loses very few of them. 

 

Now of course, both these guys run a lot less than Allen does (about 35-40% in Rodgers case, 25% in Brees).

 

Allen had 16 fumbles, of which 5 were lost.  Clearly 16 is unacceptable, but it seemed as though after Philly, Allen got the memo and started to work on it harder, which took a few games to take hold (as he put it after he fumbled in the Cleveland game, "those guys are a lot bigger and they hit a lot harder than the QB can be hit in practice").

 

Anyway, to your point about "they've learned not to fumble" 'they've developed awareness", the interesting thing is that fumbles are non-randomly distributed across both their careers, and it might not be the distribution you'd expect.  If "they've learned not to fumble because mechanics and awareness" you'd expect to see more fumbles when they started to play, then declining and staying low.  That's sort of true for Rodgers.  (It's true for Tom Brady, BTW - his first 3 years he had 12, 11, and 13 fumbles.)  But then lo and behold, as a 10 year vet, that number spiked up again and took several years to work back down.  Brees, on the other hand, started out OK - maybe being a smaller guy with smaller hands forced him to focus on good mechanics?  But again, as a 9-10 yr vet, the number of fumbles spiked up.

 

My thought on this would be that the fumbling bit is not always within the QB's control; factors like the quality of the center/QB exchange, the quality of the pass protection, and how quickly the receivers get open/how long and hard the QB fights to extend the play may come into play.  
 

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

We had a little discussion earlier about whether we were disappointed in Allen's progress in 2019 - I was and you weren't, and I'm not sure about how you feel about the future, but I'm about as sure as I could be.   Allen is going to be a stud QB for many years.

 

I'm still at "I see Stud potential and I hope he will be a stud, but he needs to show he can take that step".    I'm encouraged by what people who know more than I have to say about him, but the bottom line when it comes to making better decisions to "take what the defense gives you", reading the defense better and not getting stuck on one read, and especially changing footwork/throwing mechanics in a way that endures under pressure and through a season - well, it's no good talking about it, he has to show it can happen in games.

 

There are two types of errors that get made with young QBs.  With a nod to statistics, let's call them Type I and Type II errors.  Type II error is failure to move on from a young QB who really isn't getting it done.  This is the Blake Bortles/Sam Bradford error.  The Type I error is moving on too early from a young QB who really has potential to be a stud, but may be slow or uneven in his development.  This is the Chargers' Drew Brees error.

 

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And I think that if McBeane were candid, they'd tell you they know already they're extending Allen and paying him whatever they have to pay him.   The only way that doesn't happen would be if somehow Allen we really blew up in 2020 and had a really serious regression, throwing more INTs than TDs, something like that.   But I think he's already past that - I think he's just a good young QB on the road to greatness.  How much greatness is yet to be determined, but he's a keeper.   

 

I don't know about this, but I will say that I think McBeane have already seen enough that they're already less concerned about Type II than about Type I.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Overall, good post but kind of funny that you mention this so I'm going to zero in on the fumble thing.  According to his gamelogs, Rodgers has 7 fumbles this season of which 5 were lost.  

 

Brees is the Witch (warlock?): he didn't fumble at all this year! Over his career, he averages about 5 fumbles/season and recently, he loses very few of them. 

 

Now of course, both these guys run a lot less than Allen does (about 35-40% in Rodgers case, 25% in Brees).

 

Allen had 16 fumbles, of which 5 were lost.  Clearly 16 is unacceptable, but it seemed as though after Philly, Allen got the memo and started to work on it harder, which took a few games to take hold (as he put it after he fumbled in the Cleveland game, "those guys are a lot bigger and they hit a lot harder than the QB can be hit in practice").

 

Anyway, to your point about "they've learned not to fumble" 'they've developed awareness", the interesting thing is that fumbles are non-randomly distributed across both their careers, and it might not be the distribution you'd expect.  If "they've learned not to fumble because mechanics and awareness" you'd expect to see more fumbles when they started to play, then declining and staying low.  That's sort of true for Rodgers.  (It's true for Tom Brady, BTW - his first 3 years he had 12, 11, and 13 fumbles.)  But then lo and behold, as a 10 year vet, that number spiked up again and took several years to work back down.  Brees, on the other hand, started out OK - maybe being a smaller guy with smaller hands forced him to focus on good mechanics?  But again, as a 9-10 yr vet, the number of fumbles spiked up.

 

My thought on this would be that the fumbling bit is not always within the QB's control; factors like the quality of the center/QB exchange, the quality of the pass protection, and how quickly the receivers get open/how long and hard the QB fights to extend the play may come into play.  
 

 

I'm still at "I see Stud potential and I hope he will be a stud, but he needs to show he can take that step".    I'm encouraged by what people who know more than I have to say about him, but the bottom line when it comes to making better decisions to "take what the defense gives you", reading the defense better and not getting stuck on one read, and especially changing footwork/throwing mechanics in a way that endures under pressure and through a season - well, it's no good talking about it, he has to show it can happen in games.

 

There are two types of errors that get made with young QBs.  With a nod to statistics, let's call them Type I and Type II errors.  Type II error is failure to move on from a young QB who really isn't getting it done.  This is the Blake Bortles/Sam Bradford error.  The Type I error is moving on too early from a young QB who really has potential to be a stud, but may be slow or uneven in his development.  This is the Chargers' Drew Brees error.

 

 

I don't know about this, but I will say that I think McBeane have already seen enough that they're already less concerned about Type II than about Type I.

I generally agree with all of this. 

 

I think you're right in part about the fumbles.  I do think it's definitely not straight line - fumbles with experienced QBs generally happen when they are completely surprised,and that happens at any time in your career, but they still happen.   But I think it happens less to veterans, because they aren't surprised as often.    So that's one aspect of how experience and how learning helps them.  The other thing they learn are the techniques you were talking about, so they're less likely fumble when they are surprised.  Still, as you say, there's some randonness to it, and even the best are not going to be fumble-free.  

 

I was more interested in your abilty to focus on little, technical aspects of playing that need to be mastered.   As I said, Allen has dozens of those he's working on, and if he's good as I think he is, he'll just continue to knock them off.  

 

This is only tangentially related, but there's something I've been thinking about for a while, and I'll drop it in here.   I've said all along that physically, Allen is most like Elway.   Not actually a real running back, but big enough, strong enough and fast enough to be a running threat.   Spectacular arm.  So I looked the other day at Elway's passing stats.   In particular, I looked at where he ranked in passer rating.    So get this:  starting with his rookie year, Elway was 27th in the league in passer rating, then 17th, 17th, 13th, 11th, 18th, 17th, 14th, 19th, 20th, 3rd, 4th, 14th, 4th, 7th, 5th.   I might have missed one along the way, but the picture is very clear.   Now, you can argue about the quality of the coaching and the quality of his teammates, but I think these numbers make it pretty clear that Elway was learning how to play quarterback, and it didn't really all come together for eight or ten years.   '

 

I think Allen is more dedicated and less stubborn than Elway (talk about hero ball!), so I don't think it's going to take Allen ten years.  Allen is like Elway in that both were unpolished coming out of college.   Elway was spending as much time on baseball as football, and Bill Walsh wasn't the head coach at Stanford then, so Elway at Stanford (although more talented) was like Fitzpatrick at Harvard - best athlete they'd ever seen at QB for a school of really smart people.   

 

After watching Allen this season, and seeing him make progress steadily but not knock it out of the park, I think the Elway comparison continues to make sense.   When he really learns the game, just like when Elway really learned the game, he's going to be tough to beat.   Great arm, big guy, intense competitor, smart guy.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBob said:

This happens for most humans at first when making drastic changes in approach. Even if not consciously, it’s easy for the brain to revert back to what you knew best until those new habits become completely integrated. 
 

I also think part of the problem is simply information overload. How much can one learn and integrate as habit over a short time frame, both physically and mentally. 
 

Josh played football for a rural farm town high school. So did I. Our head coach was our social studies teacher who was a former marine who was more worried about if your hair could be seen from the back of the helmet than what kind of plays we were running. 
 

Josh then played JUCO football his first year, red shirted at Wyoming the next and then played two seasons at Wyoming. I doubt Josh got much in the way of structured coaching regarding his footwork, his delivery, his touch, etc. Wyoming is not Louisville, USC or Oklahoma. 
 

I’m sure the Bills never planned for him to even play his first season and he got thrown in and had to use his instincts and sheer athletic ability to overcome his less than optimal mechanics, and his limited knowledge of reading defenses, etc. He actually did pretty well, but he needed a complete overhaul to be successful in the NFL. 
 

I think his lack of success this season on the long ball has a lot to do with info overload. His makeover into a timing passer in the shorter routes probably required all of his capacity for learning and doing. His long ball was probably greatly de-emphasized in favor of the higher priority of making him over to operate as an NFL pocket passer. 
 

I believe, with his work ethic, that he will take another significant step, by not only reinforcing what he’s already learned, but also refining his touch on deeper routes. I think he’s come a long, long way, and he will continue that this year. Kid’s never had anything handed to him, and he will put in  the hard work necessary to reach his potential. We all will be very happy. 

 

Interesting post.  One of the best scenes in the book I reviewed (NFL Confidential) is where the author returns to watch his former HS football team during his bye week, notices the OL has poor technique (coached just as he was) and gives them an impromptu coaching session which has an immediate positive effect.  I Hear You that small HS programs don't always have the best coaching.  I believe Josh's HS contended for the championship his Sr year, which is kind of hard to do with a "more concerned about hair length than play calling" guy.  Still Josh said he never lifted until he went to JuCo; it clearly wasn't the kind of place where the football team lifts 3-4x/week year round.

 

On the other hand, at Wyoming, Allen was coached by Craig Bohl, who was an assistant at Nebraska during 2 national championships with 3 FCS titles and who built ND State into a prominent program winning 3 straight FCS championships, and by QB coach/OC Brent Vigen.  During Josh's pre-draft evaluation, there are a number of video clips where people talking to Josh comment that he's "well coached" (link to Mayock interview after his pro day).   Also check out the 3 Pre-draft "Wake-up Call" episodes with Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen.  It's Part III about 5 minutes in where he gives an assessment of Josh, saying he's well-coached and well-taught

Part I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbA7eaXmz0k

Part II https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2-P9wkK9ME

Part III https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsM6mLtMESg

But if you like your x's and o's check out  Part III about 50 seconds in where Kirk asks Josh to diagram a favorite play and discuss where the protection is in the call and how he would adjust.  That's not the result of a month or two of cramming - Josh seems pretty clearly a guy who spent a couple years learning the game at a pretty high level under people who knew something about how to teach it. (Course I wish he could sort of imprint what Kirk is telling him about "take completions" on his cerebral cortex but that's another story.)  The part that interests me the most is Part II about 3:40 in where Kirk and Josh are going over an interception he threw that looks like a horrible throw.  Josh says the sort of stuff we always hear "off page a little bit" "I threw it where I shouldn't have".  But listen to Kirk.  It's clear he reads between the lines - Josh isn't going to throw his teammate under the bus, but the problem was he and the back read the coverage differently and as a result, the ball went to where the back wasn't.  What Kirk advises Josh makes it pretty clear that he thinks Josh read it right.

 

According to Mayock, the facilities at Wyo were impressive.  Mayock says "as good as anything available at LSU" (!!!!).  Josh developed from a 6'5" 210 lb guy to a 6'5" 240 lb guy over his time at Wyoming, which argues decent S&C.

 

What is probably true though, is that no one had the time to rewind with Josh and soak in and work on his fundamentals until he got with Palmer.  That's my experience of coaching at a much lower level, during the season those guys just don't have time to develop technique, they're up to their necks with film and game plans and weekly rep sheets for practice.  Mayock in the link above comments on his improvement with footwork after working with Jordan Palmer, and points out the question is: will he retain it while 11 other guys are coming for him?  So we see that the answer is, sometimes yes (more when he has time), sometimes no (when he's under heavy pressure, it can break down).

 

I agree with you that the focus on the shorter routes probably worked to the detriment of the longer ball.  And I hope you're right we'll be very happy!

 

 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Interesting post.  One of the best scenes in the book I reviewed (NFL Confidential) is where the author returns to watch his former HS football team during his bye week, notices the OL has poor technique (coached just as he was) and gives them an impromptu coaching session which has an immediate positive effect.  I Hear You that small HS programs don't always have the best coaching.  I believe Josh's HS contended for the championship his Sr year, which is kind of hard to do with a "more concerned about hair length than play calling" guy.  Still Josh said he never lifted until he went to JuCo; it clearly wasn't the kind of place where the football team lifts 3-4x/week year round.

 

On the other hand, at Wyoming, Allen was coached by Craig Bohl, who was an assistant at Nebraska during 2 national championships with 3 FCS titles and who built ND State into a prominent program winning 3 straight FCS championships, and by QB coach/OC Brent Vigen.  During Josh's pre-draft evaluation, there are a number of video clips where people talking to Josh comment that he's "well coached" and that the facilities at Wyo were impressive.  Mayock says "as good as anything available at LSU" (!!!!).  Josh developed from a 6'5" 210 lb guy to a 6'5" 240 lb guy over his time at Wyoming, which argues decent S&C too.

What is probably true though, is that no one had the time to rewind with Josh and soak in and work on his fundamentals until he got with Palmer.  That's my experience of coaching at a much lower level, during the season those guys just don't have time to develop technique, they're up to their necks with film and game plans and weekly rep sheets for practice.  Mayock in the link above comments on his improvement with footwork after working with Jordan Palmer, and points out the question is: will he retain it while 11 other guys are coming for him?  So we see that the answer is, sometimes yes (more when he has time), sometimes no (when he's under heavy pressure, it can break down).

 

I agree with you that the focus on the shorter routes probably worked to the detriment of the longer ball.  And I hope you're right we'll be very happy!

 

 

I agree with this, too, and the post you quoted.   

 

As for Wyoming, although Allen may have had pretty good coaches, there's another aspect of that experience that held him back, and that is the overall quality of the talent around him and the opposition.  A team like Wyoming pretty much never gets coached up like Ohio State, because (1) the coaches tend to coach to the level of the overall talent on the team, and (2) the opponents are generally not so sophisticated that the offense has to be really polished.   So day after day, a QB in a program like that is being held to a lower standard than players in more sophisticated programs.  

 

The result is that a guy like Allen has seen less coming out of college than a Mayfield or a Darnold.  Put another way, the increase in expectations at the pro level over college was greater for Allen than for some others, because there's no denying he was playing a lower college level than some guys.  

 

In my mind, Allen has closed the gap already (he outperformed Darnold and Mayfield this season).   Now we're going to begin to see the difference that comes from being bigger, stronger, faster, smarter with a bigger arm than those other guys.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Championships are next.

 

 

[JetsFan20]

18 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I think the biggest reason for Allen's lack of a 300 yard passing game this season were the circumstances of the games being played. 

 

In only 1 game did the Bills lose by more then one score and even in that game (Eagles) they were only down 17 - 13 late in the 3rd period.  And given the wind conditions that day NO QB was going to throw for 300 yards even against a prevent defense. 

 

From what I can see a lot of 300 yard passing games are the direct result of a team down big desperately trying to get back into the game.  These big yardage games often require the assistance of a prevent defense to make it happen.  By throwing "check down" passes under the coverage QB's can easily roll up 100 - 200 yards passing in the 3rd & 4th quarters.  There's a reason that the correlation between passing for 300 yards and WINNING the game is so poor. 

 

 

 

 

Coaches are trying to win games-it’s not about putting up gaudy passing stats. 
 

If the offense scores 17 points and loses its a bad day. If they score 17 points and win it’s a good day. 
 

If you have a 7 pt 4th quarter lead against Duck Hodges you make that guy beat you. 
 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by JetsFan20

[ny33]

On 1/24/2020 at 2:36 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Vic Carucci interviews Jordan Palmer on Josh Allen and plans for the off season.  TBN, paywall - I think there's a free trial.  Very interesting article IMO.

 

Some key quotes:

I was like, 'I think this guy's going to be unbelievable, but I can't say how long it's going take, because it's not that he had a prolific college career,' " Palmer said. "So I think, for me, a part of it was waiting to see how long things were going to take. I've spent a lot of time with him and I'm even surprised at how quickly he's growing and how much better he's getting and how fast that's happening. He's seeing things really quickly, he's making quick decisions, he's moving past mistakes really quickly. And every time there's something he needs to work on, it gets better.( ....... ) based off what I've seen the last few years, I would just assume that he's going to come back and be one of the best deep ball throwers in the league next year because I see the way that he addresses issues and moves on."

 

Jordan talks about the way he works on deep throws with his clients.  He says part of it is mental, throwing to a spot rather than throwing to a guy.  He also talks about a technique he uses to teach the physical aspects, getting the ball up higher.

 

IMUO (in my uneducated opinion) part of Allen's problem is that his technique still breaks down under pressure, so I hope that's something they'll work on.

 

The most interesting part of the article to me was talking about the "trying to do too much" aspect.  Palmer makes an interesting point:

" One of the things that I've noticed in working with young players is, a lot of times they can have success if they just want it more, right? Because when you put a bunch of little kids on the field that are 10 years old, honestly, things like talent, athleticism aren't registering yet. So it's really just who wants it the most. And so at some point, you grow out of that and it becomes speed and technique and talent, whatever the sport is.

(.....) I think one of the things with young NFL players is they still have that drive and that want-to and as they transition into older veterans, it gets channeled differently. "

 

I would say Josh definitely has aspects where he has succeeded at times in games because, as he says himself of the 4th down conversion vs the Cowboys, "I really wanted it".  So it's going to be a challenge to channel that "I want it more" that helps him win some plays, and use it more selectively. 

 

Palmer says he has his clients pre-draft work with a "mental conditioning coach" Trevor Moawad on "neutral thinking": " Neutral thinking is detaching from everything except for facts of what's happening. "OK, we're down 10. Here's what we need to do." Or, "It's raining. Here's what I need to do. Too many people get into negative thinking. "Oh, man, we're down 10 again." Or people get down 10 and they go, "We've got them right where we want them. No, we're all good. It'll be it'll be fine. What needs to happen? We're down 10, we need to get a stop on defense, we need to drive down the field, everyone needs to execute and go."

 

This interests me because it seems very tied in with some of the training I've had, as an emergency responder and as pilot.  It's not couched in the same language, but essentially it's very much about being focused in the present moment - you can't waste time second guessing or kicking yourself about how you got there, you can't be in denial about the situation you're really in, you can't waste time thinking too broadly about the situation.  It's all define the problem, work the problem, prioritize, most important aspect is the Next Two Things.

Anyway I think this is the guy:

https://moawadconsultinggroup.com/

Edit: apparently this guy is Russ Wilson's "mental conditioning coach"

 

Should be interesting to see what happens.

 

 

 

 

His deep ball was certainly better his rookie year, and that’s encouraging; given his broad, largely sustained; and continual improvement over the course of his career, it’s apparent that he has the drive and mental makeup to be successful in the league. Fixing something that worked is much more feasible and likely than it is for QBs to shore up major flaws as Josh has been able to. 

 

Most players with tremendous physical gifts, including early first round picks, coast on their physical ability and neglect the mental aspects of the game that separate QBs like Brady- famously underwhelming athletically dating to his combine- from guys like Stafford, Bortles or Winston who have the prototypical physical makeup and skills.

 

It’s very, very rare to see a player improve to the degree Josh did from year one to two,  and even rarer for a QB to make vast strides in his weak points (whereas most simply get used to the speed of the game and are most improved through better leveraging their strengths). 

 

It’s also clear that he was far more confident and successful with his deep ball and overall game when Foster has his six game breakout, whereas the historically bad receiving corps (one of the least talented/disciplined/productive in NFL history) prior to his emergence didn’t help his confidence.

 

Beane has largely shown that he can address the inexcusably poor receiving corps and offensive line that we threw a green rookie from Wyoming into the fire with. Early experiences heavily shape QBs, and most teams prefer to sit talented, but inexperienced, QBs for at least a year with a high and immediate success rate (Mahomes, Rodgers, etc., and Garoppolo is another example of the benefits of adjusting to the league from the bench behind legendary QBs like Favre/Brady or diligent, cerebral average starters like Alex Smith). David Carr never had a shot behind an expansion roster line, and Luck’s career was shortened by his early career abuse behind a porous line. 

 

The (9!) new starters other than Dawkins have taken the surrounding talent level from the bottom of the league to middling, but Beane’s player evaluation (draft/free agent value) looks to be better than the majority of teams’ GMs.

 

It’s particularly encouraging to see the early success rate on mid to late picks (across a small sample size and early in their careers), as the best GMs manage far higher success rates with Day 3 picks (round 1 evaluation is more of a crapshoot given that most selections have some elite traits worthy of the investment. Given the vastly improved average roster quality, guys like Sweeney and Johnson already appear to be outperforming their draft slots in making a  talented and deep roster (and showing some ability in flashes worthy of further in-game  evaluation).

 

It shouldn’t be hard to add a starting caliber outside wide receiver and 2nd/3rd RB between our draft capital/limited needs and free agency. Brown is good enough for every team to be an every-down starter, and going from Zay Jones and Isiah McKenzie (whom I think is valuable and rosterable  as a rotational situational player but has no business starting on the outside to another threat will open up Brown more often deep and give Josh another downfield that should open up his game and boost his confidence. 

 

Next year is going to be exciting. 

[Shaw66]

On 1/27/2020 at 5:59 AM, GaryPinC said:

I'm a bit disappointed, but it's with his consistency.  He clearly made great strides in his pre-snap reads, though still missing hot reads sometimes.  He struggled with understanding Daboll's play designs, and having the patience to let them develop.  But at times he was right on getting the ball in anticipation of the open breaking receiver.

My take is that he should take his biggest steps forward this year, as expected, but he will maddeningly still struggle with his consistency. 

His lack of past development, plus the fact that his whole life was small town football where hero ball was all he did will continue to slow his consistency.

He seems to have the drive to overcome all this but overcoming your ingrained past is not a given for any player so that's definitely my worry.

His lack of 300 yard passing games I think is a combo of conservative game plans, lack of receiving talent and Allen's consistency.

I generally balk when I hear people talk about his consistency.   I think all that is a description of the fact that sometimes he does things right and looks great, and other times he does them wrong.   He doesn't do things right consistently.   If that's what you mean, I agree.  

 

I tend to think of it as he loses focus.   When he's focused on what he's supposed to do, he's deadly.   When he loses focus, he just reacts to whatever is happening on the field, and he executes more poorly.   He makes an inaccurate throw because he isn't focused on doing it the way he knows he can.  He takes a sack because he isn't focused on the bigger picture and the unimportance of any one play.   

 

I don't think his poor play is a function of bad habits that need to be broken.   He's mechanically a good thrower, he's a good field general, he's a good runner.   He just needs to learn to stick to what his job is at any given moment.   He needs better focus on what is important in the moment, and that will make him more consistent.  

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, ny33 said:

Next year is going to be exciting. 

I think your entire analysis is generally correct (I'd quibble here and there), but it was your last sentence that reminded me of what we're looking at.  For all the reasons you give - Allen surviving and improving significantly through two years, Beane's ability to add talent, etc., the Bills should take another step forward in 2020.  And it's a step forward from a playoff-caliber team that easily could have won 12 games in 2019.    

 

It's a new era, one we haven't seen in 30 years.  

[WideNine]

On 1/24/2020 at 2:41 PM, John from Riverside said:

Take a look at Josh Allen's hight and his passing technique and how he is throwing to smaller guys

 

Get him some size that can actually separate and high point and catch a friggen ball.....

 

Smoke is great in his role.....he is def our 2.....Bease is a solid slot corner........we need a LEGIT ONE....and we need to take a couple of swings at bat to make sure we get it

 

Going to be interesting. I think they are a piece away on the offensive line when everyone is healthy, and they need a legit 1-2 punch in their running game.

 

For Josh, it usually seems that the old issues with mechanics and decisions follow his mental state during a game. When he is focused and has good situational awareness and trusts the guys around him, he can be literally amazing. When that focus unravels, as it did in the later half of his first ever playoff game, then the mechanics and decisions go out the window.

 

I do not think that Daboll has the best situational awareness either on game days and often does not do his young signal caller any favors.

 

My hope is that Allen can at least adapt to all the situations and the nerves part of the game will subside. I am not sold that Daboll will be the right guy to take their offense to the next level, but we will see if Beane can give them enough shiny new toys to compensate. There is more to being a great OC than just creativity, and his running game personnel decisions and play calls with Gore last year were uninspired.

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Going to be interesting. I think they are a piece away on the offensive line when everyone is healthy, and they need a legit 1-2 punch in their running game.

 

For Josh, it usually seems that the old issues with mechanics and decisions follow his mental state during a game. When he is focused and has good situational awareness and trusts the guys around him, he can be literally amazing. When that focus unravels, as it did in the later half of his first ever playoff game, then the mechanics and decisions go out the window.

 

I do not think that Daboll has the best situational awareness either on game days and often does not do his young signal caller any favors.

 

My hope is that Allen can at least adapt to all the situations and the nerves part of the game will subside. I am not sold that Daboll will be the right guy to take their offense to the next level, but we will see if Beane can give them enough shiny new toys to compensate. There is more to being a great OC than just creativity, and his running game personnel decisions and play calls with Gore last year were uninspired.

 

 

 

You've focused on focus, just as I did.   I think you've said it well. 

 

As for Daboll, there's no reason to believe that he won't improve, as well.   If he has an identifiable weakness, such as, as you say, situational awareness (which also is focus, said in a different way), that's something that can be improved on.   Not saying he WILL improve - only time will tell that.  But I think it's a mistake to think that he won't get better, just as it's a mistake to think Allen won't get better.  

[Mikey152]

On 1/25/2020 at 10:17 AM, JetsFan20 said:

 

I remember reading an article that NFL agency firms were hiring fringe guys like Jordan Palmer and Ryan Lindley who were out of the league to assist QB prospects with their pre-draft/combine stuff. 

 

If Palmer was truly this “QB Guru” he’d like find himself highly compensated on an NFL coaching staff. I think his value more centered towards getting young QBs ready for their pro/days, combine workout, and team interviews (drawing up plays on the chalk board). 

 

Obviously Darnold and Allen like the guy and feel hes a good resource, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is not true at all...Most QBs have a QB coach they work with in the offseason that isn't employed by the team.  Like Brady went to Tom Martinez for years and considered him his mentor.  Now he and a bunch of others work with 3DQB, which was started by baseball pitchers.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Mikey152

[GaryPinC]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I generally balk when I hear people talk about his consistency.   I think all that is a description of the fact that sometimes he does things right and looks great, and other times he does them wrong.   He doesn't do things right consistently.   If that's what you mean, I agree.  

 

I tend to think of it as he loses focus.   When he's focused on what he's supposed to do, he's deadly.   When he loses focus, he just reacts to whatever is happening on the field, and he executes more poorly.   He makes an inaccurate throw because he isn't focused on doing it the way he knows he can.  He takes a sack because he isn't focused on the bigger picture and the unimportance of any one play.   

 

I don't think his poor play is a function of bad habits that need to be broken.   He's mechanically a good thrower, he's a good field general, he's a good runner.   He just needs to learn to stick to what his job is at any given moment.   He needs better focus on what is important in the moment, and that will make him more consistent.  

I agree with you, my perspective for being disappointed was his loss of focus early in the Baltimore game and latter half of the playoff game.   I think at times he focuses on the wrong things (not waiting for his late read to develop, instead putting the ball into tight coverage), this I can accept as part of the growth process. I do have a lot of faith he is our franchise quarterback, he should have a good leap forward next year but maybe it's his 4th year where he never loses his focus and excels consistently.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

I agree with you, my perspective for being disappointed was his loss of focus early in the Baltimore game and latter half of the playoff game.   I think at times he focuses on the wrong things (not waiting for his late read to develop, instead putting the ball into tight coverage), this I can accept as part of the growth process. I do have a lot of faith he is our franchise quarterback, he should have a good leap forward next year but maybe it's his 4th year where he never loses his focus and excels consistently.

Agreed.   What he needs is to be on the growth curve (I think he is) to  being like Brady in this regard.   Brady always seems to have all of the important considerations in mind as he making decisions on the field.   He knows down and distance, time remaining, play call, defensive tendencies, everything in his head as he's looking over the field, pre-snap and post-snap.   He knows a punt is a good thing, and he knows a turnover is a really bad thing.   He's willing to accept a non-productive down rather than risk something bad happening in an effort to make something good happen.   He understands that not every play works, that the defense makes plays, too.   By staying focused, he has all of those parameters running in his head as he's deciding to not throw here, not there, okay, throw to that guy.   And he's comfortable doing all of that so that the noise in his head doesn't affect his throwing motion - when he throws, he leaves all of that stuff behind and he's locked into making the throw correctly.   His focus leaves the decision making realm and flips instantly to making precisely the throw that's necessary.  

 

We saw games where Allen did this consistently.   The Cowboys game was one - the Cowboys are, I think, pretty simple defensively, and Allen seemed well prepared and comfortable looking over the defense.    That allowed him to maintain his focus throughout the game, and stay effective throughout the game.   But as you say, in the Baltimore game he seemed to get flustered, the things he knew or expected to be able to do weren't there, and the quality of his play suffered.    

 

Focus comes along with learning more and experiencing more.   To say focused, you have to stay calm.   It's easier to stay calm if you understand what you're looking at.   It's easier to stay calm in the face of a blitz or a free rusher if you understand what's happening and you understand what the options are.   The best option may be to throw the ball away, get hit, get off the ground and go back to the huddle.  If you stay calm in the face of that, you're calm and able to focus on the next play.  But if you get flustered by the pass rush, then you may be hurried in the huddle, uncomfortable at the line for the next play, and then you start piling problems on problems.   We saw some of that this season, and that's something Allen has to grow out of.  

[BuffaloBob]

On 1/27/2020 at 2:40 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

What is probably true though, is that no one had the time to rewind with Josh and soak in and work on his fundamentals until he got with Palmer. 

This is really what I was driving at. So thanks for pulling the weeds. ?

 

And BTW, our high school won a championship in my junior year, and I’m still not sure how we did it!  

[Thurman#1]

On 1/25/2020 at 2:37 PM, Buffalo Junction said:

Yup. Josh Allen is by far Palmers biggest commercial. If Allen turns into an All Pro then Palmers business is secured until retirement. 

 

 

Not by far. Remember how surprising it was that DeSean Watson was so good so early? He spent a lot of time with Palmer between the draft and training camp his first year. That's how come Darnold and Allen both showed up the next year.

On 1/25/2020 at 7:57 PM, TroutDog said:

Josh had five passes of 40+ in his first year and this past year he had seven so I’m not sure where this narrative comes from. 

 

 

Screen passes caught behind the LOS and run for 40 yards count in that stat.

 

He really did have problems with passes that went a long way in the air this year.

[Thurman#1]

On 1/25/2020 at 11:45 PM, Shaw66 said:

Sorry - typing on my phone together with no proofreading.  I expected he'd be a top 20 passer and he wasn't.  

I think the sophomore slump is a myth.   It may have been real 50 years ago, but I don't think you see guys regress from their first season very often.   

 

In any event, Josh didn't have a slump.   He was clearly better in his second season than his first.   He improved, for sure, just not as much as I had hoped.  

 

 

Agreed Josh got significantly better. And I'd argue your hopes were too high. His accuracy improved, his footwork, his decision-making ... he improved on many fronts.

 

But sophomore slump is a real thing. Mayfield is an example. Sam Bradford. Even Matty Ryan could be argued as a guy who performed worse his second year but then got a lot better. RG III (mebbe from injury, but it was real), Dak Prescott ...

 

They think it exists too, not for everybody, but that it's a real phenomena:

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2019/12/does-sophomore-slump-exist-in-the-nfl/

[Thurman#1]

On 1/26/2020 at 12:17 AM, JetsFan20 said:

 

I remember reading an article that NFL agency firms were hiring fringe guys like Jordan Palmer and Ryan Lindley who were out of the league to assist QB prospects with their pre-draft/combine stuff. 

 

If Palmer was truly this “QB Guru” he’d like find himself highly compensated on an NFL coaching staff. I think his value more centered towards getting young QBs ready for their pro/days, combine workout, and team interviews (drawing up plays on the chalk board). 

 

Obviously Darnold and Allen like the guy and feel hes a good resource, but I wouldn’t read too much into it.

 

 

 

Not everyone wants those kinds of team jobs. And I doubt QB coaches are paid all that much. It's really when you start to hit coordinator that the money gets serious.

 

More, he's said before that he makes a good living and chooses his own hours, who he works with and where he lives. Enjoys spending time with kids and family and is able to do that consistently with his current job.