Shaw66 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Agreed Josh got significantly better. And I'd argue your hopes were too high. His accuracy improved, his footwork, his decision-making ... he improved on many fronts. But sophomore slump is a real thing. Mayfield is an example. Sam Bradford. Even Matty Ryan could be argued as a guy who performed worse his second year but then got a lot better. RG III (mebbe from injury, but it was real), Dak Prescott ... They think it exists too, not for everybody, but that it's a real phenomena: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2019/12/does-sophomore-slump-exist-in-the-nfl/ They and you are working with a incorrect definition of the term. Sophomore slumps suggests that there is something about the sophomore year that causes performance to decline from the freshman year. That is, if the sophomore slump was caused by being in the second year, all players would suffer a sophomore slump, or at least most. The data in the linked article demonstrates that in fact most QBs improve in their second season. That suggests there is no slump. The fact that the rookie QBs with the best rookie years tend to regress in the second year is a statistical reality. It's called regression to the mean. A few of the best QBs as rookies are just really good, and their second season is fine. But for most rookies, if they have a good first season, it's aberrational. As a statistical matter, their performance is expected to fall. In exactly the same way, if your rookie stats are below average, as a matter of statistics, your performance in your second year is expected to improve. Josh Allen didn't have a sophomore slump. In other words, it goes without saying that high performing rookies are likely to perform less well in their second seasons, just like low performing rookies are likely to perform better. It doesn't have anything to do with it being the second season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 On 1/24/2020 at 12:25 PM, whatdrought said: Based on how much Allen improved this year, from reading defenses, to accuracy, to feel for the game, to decision making... if he takes a similar jump he’ll be an MVP candidate no doubt. Yep. Who was it? Transplant that had the Josh Allen will be MVP thread? It was just a season too soon. The trend of second year QB's taking the next level MVP jump is crazy right now. 2017 Wentz (Goff to a lesser extent) 2018 Mahomes (Turbitzky to a lesser extent) 2019 Jackson (Allen to a much lesser extent but greatly improved sophomore season) 2020 Will it be Murray, Jones or Lock? Can't see it being Haskins. Murray seems like a great candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 50 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Not by far. Remember how surprising it was that DeSean Watson was so good so early? He spent a lot of time with Palmer between the draft and training camp his first year. That's how come Darnold and Allen both showed up the next year. In hindsight though everyone should be kicking themselves regarding Watson. Very few QB's had a better winning pedigree than DeSean in college. The guy was a winner like Tebow was but of course actually had the skill and talent to play the position unlike Tebow. What do they always point to regarding Allen's college career? He couldn't even manage first team all Mountain West his final year. 55 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: He really did have problems with passes that went a long way in the air this year. Yep he was dreadful. I don't think he completed a single one until the Broncos game? The game winner to Brown was just under 30 air yards i think? The one in the Broncos game was like exactly 30 maybe? Don't remember. But really it was that passes that were 40+ air yards that really sailed on him and never seemed to have a chance at all. The first New England game may have made things worst for him. In that game he seemed to just be throwing balls up for grabs hoping his receiver would make a play but the Patriots defense was playing at too good a level to let that happen. And then after that game it seemed almost every pass over 40 yards was an overthrow sometimes by as many as five yards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TroutDog Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said: Screen passes caught behind the LOS and run for 40 yards count in that stat. He really did have problems with passes that went a long way in the air this year. I agree but he had the same problem last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Junction Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/1/2020 at 10:30 AM, Thurman#1 said: Not by far. Remember how surprising it was that DeSean Watson was so good so early? He spent a lot of time with Palmer between the draft and training camp his first year. That's how come Darnold and Allen both showed up the next year. I really don’t think a two time Heisman finalist and Johnny Unitas winner with a national championship and top coaching is quite comparable to the raw JUCO to Wyoming kid that is still developing. I can’t recall anyone saying Watson couldn’t throw a football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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