The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I know you’re a big proponent of testing, and that’s nice but when the numbers come down to where they are now may be more productive to go in and find out how people caught the virus. For example, in Wyoming yesterday there were a grand total of TEN new cases reported. You’re telling me they can’t do an investigation of who exactly those ten people are and where and how they most likely contracted the virus? Of course they can! But they’re not. Or at least it’s not being reported to the American public.

 

That's what tracers do. It's just as important, if not more, than testing.  

[shoshin]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I know you’re a big proponent of testing, and that’s nice but when the numbers come down to where they are now may be more productive to go in and find out how people caught the virus. For example, in Wyoming yesterday there were a grand total of TEN new cases reported. You’re telling me they can’t do an investigation of who exactly those ten people are and where and how they most likely contracted the virus? Of course they can! But they’re not. Or at least it’s not being reported to the American public.

You’re right. I’m not sure about Wyoming but Tracing is happening in most states to some degree. Lots of people see tracing as big brother though or think it makes no difference and some states are not on top of it—but some are doing it aggressively. My state is hiring tracers like mad. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by shoshin

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

You’re right. I’m not sure about Wyoming but Tracing is happening in most states to some degree. Lots of people see tracing as big brother though or think it makes no difference and some states are not on top of it—but some are doing it aggressively. My state is hiring tracers like mad. 

Again, we differ on both approach and rhetoric. With a grand total of TEN people in an entire state the size of Wyoming I’m guessing they don’t need an army of newly deputized government TIA agents. They just need to look at those TEN people and tell us how old they are, if they’re all in the same town, and where they most likely came into contact with the virus. That would take all of about an hour...and cost nothing! But again, we always seem to go to the big new government program, which we’ve all learned over the decades is NEVER the answer to finding out much of ANYTHING.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

25 minutes ago, shoshin said:

You can see which states have cases on the rise. With tests leveling in many states, cases start to indicate outbreaks. Still need the accurate rapid testing and tracing to really get on top of outbreaks but that is coming. Maybe by mid To late summer. 

You're the testing guy and I appreciate your perspective.

 

On the numbers....a couple questions. 

 

Covid deaths revealed to be approximately 100,000 in the US.  There has been a lot of controversy over that figure, mostly because it's been reported that there is substantial financial incentive for providers to indicate cause or death as "Covid" even when underlying health issues were the primary cause of death using reasonable thought and common sense.  One story from our family was about a man who chose to end medical treatment after a prolonged battle with cancer, who was at the end of his journey and  coincidentally became infected. Cause of death was listed as Covid, the family was very upset but there was nothing to be done. 

 

Would you know if that's SOP for other viruses?  A man at end stage pancreatic cancer becomes ill with the flu and dies, would cause ot death be listed as influenza or pancreatic cancer? 

 

The reason I ask is that I'm following Georgia and Florida.  We're getting out quite a bit from reopening, whatever that means and I'm wondering when the SH8T hits the fan. 

 

When I hear that Disney, Universal and legowprld are opening, with no pushback from the feds, I begin to feel like I have been lied to.  When I hear that sports teams can open things up, with maybe 100-200 on a field/rink/court closely interacting and flip-flopping bodily fluids regularly, yet houses of worship are advised to lockdown,  l question what we are being told. When I see some high profile pols issuing directives then violating them, I question even more. 

[Warren Zevon]

19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Again, we differ on both approach and rhetoric. With a grand total of TEN people in an entire state the size of Wyoming I’m guessing they don’t need an army of newly deputized government TIA agents. They just need to look at those TEN people and tell us how old they are, if they’re all in the same town, and where they most likely came into contact with the virus. That would take all of about an hour...and cost nothing! But again, we always seem to go to the big new government program, which we’ve all learned over the decades is NEVER the answer to finding out much of ANYTHING.

 

Who are the "they" you refer to that can identify those ten people (while maintaining privacy), everyone they have contacted while infected, and do this job in 1 hour pro-bono?

[shoshin]

22 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

 

When I hear that Disney, Universal and legowprld are opening, with no pushback from the feds, I begin to feel like I have been lied to.  When I hear that sports teams can open things up, with maybe 100-200 on a field/rink/court closely interacting and flip-flopping bodily fluids regularly, yet houses of worship are advised to lockdown,  l question what we are being told. When I see some high profile pols issuing directives then violating them, I question even more. 

 

I don't know the answer to your question that I deleted from your post. I am curious about that too. 

 

RE the above, I said yesterday that I'd bet the farm that WDW will be rapid testing everyone who enters the world, and sports teams are already doing this in Europe so I assume we will see that here. I would not be shocked to see rapid testing at for fans going to New Era as a prerequisite to reopening. All of this is speculation but I don't think it's far-fetched. 

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Again, we differ on both approach and rhetoric. With a grand total of TEN people in an entire state the size of Wyoming I’m guessing they don’t need an army of newly deputized government TIA agents. They just need to look at those TEN people and tell us how old they are, if they’re all in the same town, and where they most likely came into contact with the virus. That would take all of about an hour...and cost nothing! But again, we always seem to go to the big new government program, which we’ve all learned over the decades is NEVER the answer to finding out much of ANYTHING.

 

Cost nothing for the guy typing it on the internet, yes. But it costs something for the person doing the tracing, logging those contacts, following up with those contacts, building a network of those as more cases come. I see these tracers as a necessary and temporary evil like a census worker or summer landscape crew. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by shoshin

[plenzmd1]

Cramer has turned on Fauci...No masks...now masks save lives!! Inevitable  its gunna be bad in fall, yesterday maybe it won't' come back.

 

"he has been offering some ill advised information, and i say that as someone who reveres him"

 

Think that is a good synopsis on how so many of us feel.

 

Then they go on to hammer CDC..like the business guys..they have one idealogy..whats best for the country

[B-Man]

‘Not nearly as lethal or harmful as advertised’: Here’s what the CDC report ACCIDENTALLY just admitted about COVID

 

 

Remember when politicians swore by the CDC? We suppose once the ‘data and science’ stopped supporting their lockdown and draconian, authoritarian measures to use the virus as a weapon against Trump in November they moved on to another ‘model.’

As long as it’s politically advantageous to certain people for Americans to continue suffering this won’t change … sorry, not sorry.

 

CDC itself has admitted the following:

 

 

 

Little late to the party, CDC.

 

So what’s the deal with extended lockdowns, masks, and other BULLSH*T?

 

Oh, that’s right, it’s political. 

 

 

 

[plenzmd1]

18 minutes ago, B-Man said:

‘Not nearly as lethal or harmful as advertised’: Here’s what the CDC report ACCIDENTALLY just admitted about COVID

 

 

Remember when politicians swore by the CDC? We suppose once the ‘data and science’ stopped supporting their lockdown and draconian, authoritarian measures to use the virus as a weapon against Trump in November they moved on to another ‘model.’

As long as it’s politically advantageous to certain people for Americans to continue suffering this won’t change … sorry, not sorry.

 

CDC itself has admitted the following:

 

 

 

Little late to the party, CDC.

 

So what’s the deal with extended lockdowns, masks, and other BULLSH*T?

 

Oh, that’s right, it’s political. 

 

 

 

which report is this referencing? thx

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

Who are the "they" you refer to that can identify those ten people (while maintaining privacy), everyone they have contacted while infected, and do this job in 1 hour pro-bono?

Ugh! Think about it for a second. In an hour they could tell whether all ten of these people were somehow related to each other. Are they in the same town? Are they residents in the same nursing home? Are they in the same household? If the answer to any or all of those is yes, it completely changes the need for hundreds of tracer clones! 

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Ugh! Think about it for a second. In an hour they could tell whether all ten of these people were somehow related to each other. Are they in the same town? Are they residents in the same nursing home? Are they in the same household? If the answer to any or all of those is yes, it completely changes the need for hundreds of tracer clones! 

 

I'm not sure you understand what a tracer does. 

[shoshin]

16 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Ugh! Think about it for a second. In an hour they could tell whether all ten of these people were somehow related to each other. Are they in the same town? Are they residents in the same nursing home? Are they in the same household? If the answer to any or all of those is yes, it completely changes the need for hundreds of tracer clones! 

Who is the they who does this for those ten? And the next ten? And who is the they keeping the database? Someone or some app has to do the job and they can identify network links that the person who is sick may not. 

 

There's a thinking that the tracing is either unnecessary or can just be left to the sick person. Those are not going to help trace cases effectively. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by shoshin

[GG]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

 

2) Next month will be so interesting. All of the images from Memorial Day, seemed to be almost an unofficial "open day" for most of the country. Think the next 3 weeks will dicatet so much of what summer looks like.

 

 

 

Or we can look at the other scary petri dishes that have been festering for well over a month.

 

We're onto week 5 after the Hasid funeral apocalypse.      After all, this is a highly insular community that's completely ignored all recommendations.

 

Any day now Williamsburg cases will spike...

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Reality Check]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

The problem is that it is not patented. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, Reality Check said:

The problem is that it is not patented. 

Bingo!

[Reality Check]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Bingo!

The art of the pump n dump is still a favorite. The media plays their part well.

[Westside]

4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

That's an insightful reply to his post and the numbers Silver posts. Thank you for the insight

2 things

1) For folks on both of the extremes, numbers mean nothing, only ideological group think and attacking those not in your "group"

 

2) Next month will be so interesting. All of the images from Memorial Day, seemed to be almost an unofficial "open day" for most of the country. Think the next 3 weeks will dicatet so much of what summer looks like.

 

 

Those numbers are as crooked as the politicians who compose them. If you want to believe them, then go right ahead. 

I know how badly the left wants to keep this shutdown going. It's there only hope to beat Trump in the election.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

I'm not sure you understand what a tracer does. 

I'm aware of what a tracer does!  Geez.

The point is that you don't need a 'tracer' if it turns out you ALREADY KNOW the common denominator of this limited group of ten people!   For example, if in the entire massive state of Wyoming, they know every single one of the ten people are in a single nursing home, then you know to isolate that nursing home.  You don't need to do a lot 'tracing'.  Remember, we're trying to figure how the disease spreads....not just who has it!  If you are forever playing whack-a-mole with an army of tracers, you're never going to get in front of this problem...you're always going to be playing catch up.