The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, shoshin said:

May 1 CDC Report model projecting death rates to increase by the end of June. You'll note that this model has been historically projecting fewer deaths than actual--this is being reported as projecting 3000 deaths per day by June 1.

 

 

 

 

This modeling makes the assumption that the laxing of the lockdowns are going to lead to another massive increase in deaths.

 

One thing is for sure though, modeling has been off every step of the way and the assumptions of states with no lock downs have been off even more so.    

 

I won't go out on a limb to make any sort of proclamations but they see to be high from my perspective and all the areas that have had the highest infection rates where most of the deaths are taking place are still on lock down and don't have any sort of immediate plans to open up, at least not in a meaningful way.  Also, this seems to suggest that their modeling either is not taking much stock in increased heat and humidity or they don't believe that heat and humidity play a role.   

 

We'll see.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

Putting these new administration numbers into perspective, We would be at 130,000 dead by the end of the month and on track to lose almost 100,000 alone in June. 

 

That doesn't feel possible just because the numbers are so staggering. But a lot will depend on whether we reopen and see success. 

 

I wonder what will be said about this report publicly. If this was bad data, or if this was one of the "unintantional" leaks that is meant to soften the public up for a much higher death toll than they have been floating. 

 

Anyone still relying on models to form an opinion on this subject is learning the wrong lesson.

[meazza]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

He's a lefty?   I sort of viewed him as a moderate swing voter type.

 

 

GF can be ok at times and TPS is a quality poster.   Aside from that, there aren't too many others.   

TPS is an economist so that automatically qualifies him as a right winger.

[RochesterRob]

9 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

True

  When socks agree with one another..........................

[Reality Check]

5 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

20 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

That last cop should be gone. 

 

 

 

Bloodshed won't be far behind. 

I have a friend who is a former LEO.  Honorable guy, most definitely tough enough that he doesn't need to prove he's tough enough.  The game here was lost when they dragged the original guy down to the ground like a pack of hyenas, and assuming this was actually a scenario where that guy was within 4.5 feet of others, would be the sort of thing that my friend suggests represented a total loss of control by the police. 

 

Ugly &^^$ will get uglier as the temperature increases and the willingness of people to be treated like sheep decreases. 

[meazza]

6 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Anyone still relying on models to form an opinion on this subject is learning the wrong lesson.

 

You're half right.  Models depend strongly on inputs and the inputs are obviously continuously changing based on the evolving studies and rapidly changing facts on the ground.

 

That doesn't mean you ignore the models but that also doesn't mean you take them at face value.  

 

One of the most important inputs, R, based on the serology tests tells me that this variable is way off and it should be way higher with the mortality being way lower.   

[shoshin]

12 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Anyone still relying on models to form an opinion on this subject is learning the wrong lesson.

 

There is a limited track record on this virus to base predictions on, so of course the models are uncertain. This one is more relevant because it comes out of the executive so it could drive decisions.

[KRC]

37 minutes ago, Magox said:

Isn't there a single left leaning poster who consistently posts on here that can actually make a good argument?  

 

DC Tom said it years ago, the righties on this board intellectually dominate the lefties.

 

Since I have come back, that is has become evidently clear.

 

As mentioned, @Doc Brown is a good poster. @RealKayAdams has always had quality discussion. Unfortunately, there are so many d-bags spewing hate from the left that it chases away people with an actual brain in their heads. That prevents real discussion as they spread their hate, ruining threads as they just try to bring everyone down to their level.

[billsfan1959]

11 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

I have a friend who is a former LEO.  Honorable guy, most definitely tough enough that he doesn't need to prove he's tough enough.  The game here was lost when they dragged the original guy down to the ground like a pack of hyenas, and assuming this was actually a scenario where that guy was within 4.5 feet of others, would be the sort of thing that my friend suggests represented a total loss of control by the police. 

 

Ugly &^^$ will get uglier as the temperature increases and the willingness of people to be treated like sheep decreases. 

 

Yep, the vast majority of LEOs never have a desire, or a need to be physical with people, and understand how to keep situations calm, rather than escalate emotions and subsequent behavior. 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by billsfan1959

[shoshin]

15 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

This modeling makes the assumption that the laxing of the lockdowns are going to lead to another massive increase in deaths.

 

One thing is for sure though, modeling has been off every step of the way and the assumptions of states with no lock downs have been off even more so.    

 

 

 

The cases and deaths are not going to go down when we reopen no matter how many masks we wear. We may hit a little lull now because we are coming out of the shutdown and weather seems to help, but this will burn through the summer and be ready to really take off this fall when instead of starting from near 0 active cases, we start with tens to hundreds of thousands. Barring the kind of breakthrough that seems unlikely, the fall is the thing to prepare for. 

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, KRC said:

 

As mentioned, @Doc Brown is a good poster. @RealKayAdams has always had quality discussion. Unfortunately, there are so many d-bags spewing hate from the left that it chases away people with an actual brain in their heads. That prevents real discussion as they spread their hate, ruining threads as they just try to bring everyone down to their level.

 

I propose 'message board distancing'.  Every level headed poster puts the trolls on ignore and does not reply to any of them.

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

The cases and deaths are not going to go down when we reopen no matter how many masks we wear. We may hit a little lull now because we are coming out of the shutdown and weather seems to help, but this will burn through the summer and be ready to really take off this fall when instead of starting from near 0 active cases, we start with tens to hundreds of thousands. Barring the kind of breakthrough that seems unlikely, the fall is the thing to prepare for. 

 

By the end of the summer, we should have more data on what therapies work and which people are more at risk than we have now.  

 

We have Italy to thank for providing so much data that allowed us to prepare somewhat.

[Deranged Rhino]

Great use of resources, Gav. 

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Great use of resources, Gav. 

 

 

 

That video a very eerie feeling to it in a "police state" kind of way....

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

That video a very eerie feeling to it in a "police state" kind of way....

 

I just recently moved from the beach -- so I thought, "at least I don't have to hear that ***** all day". But nope, starting at 9am in my new neighborhood there are two choppers doing continuous passes over the hiking trails on the mountains now. Lovely. 

 

 

[Magox]

17 minutes ago, KRC said:

 

As mentioned, @Doc Brown is a good poster. @RealKayAdams has always had quality discussion. Unfortunately, there are so many d-bags spewing hate from the left that it chases away people with an actual brain in their heads. That prevents real discussion as they spread their hate, ruining threads as they just try to bring everyone down to their level.

 

Oh yeah, RealkayAdams seems to have some quality posts.  Forgot about him/her.

[Buffalo_Gal]

This is an interesting watch/listen. Even I could understand what he was saying:
 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[Magox]

15 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The cases and deaths are not going to go down when we reopen no matter how many masks we wear. We may hit a little lull now because we are coming out of the shutdown and weather seems to help, but this will burn through the summer and be ready to really take off this fall when instead of starting from near 0 active cases, we start with tens to hundreds of thousands. Barring the kind of breakthrough that seems unlikely, the fall is the thing to prepare for. 

 

 

I guess we will find out.

[Kemp]

30 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

Signature @Deranged Rhino - always building credibility belittling others... And one who fails to acknowledge his own hypocrisy - DAILY.

 

Meanwhile - who is actually in court trying to hide his DNA over an actual RAPE case?

 

E. Jean Carroll, who says Donald Trump raped her, seeks his DNA

 

E. Jean Carroll slams Kayleigh McEnany’s dismissal of Trump assault allegations

 

 

 

You'll find it's a tiny bit more palatable here if you ignore him. Remember that he is to be pitied because a political section of a Buffalo Bills chat room is where he spends all of his time.

 

He enjoys it because he can feel like a big shot because the even dumber ones look up to him. In his mind, this makes him a star of sorts.

 

I used to try and engage him, but every time he is backed up into an illogical stance, he lashes out with ad hominem attacks. This is why I no longer hesitate to expose him.

 

All he does is post links from other fools. He is merely an aggregator of the collective stupid.

 

He sits all day, every day, just linking and talking down to those that are smarter and/or more intellectually honest.

 

Remember also that you are arguing with Trump supporters who maintaun that Biden is a sexual predator while backing Trump. These are not the brightest bulbs.

 

These same people are championing a man who wonders if injecting bleach into the human body in order to clean one's lungs. 

 

They might be pretty stupid, but if they ever went to a doctor who suggested this as a possibility most would never go back to that doctor.  Sadly, some might follow his advice, as was demonstrably shown when hundreds called authorities to ask if it's a good idea. 

 

I drop by here every once in a while to poke them with sticks, because it's sometimes fun to watch the frothing anger and stupidity pour out.

 

It's sort of ironic. Conservatives have always maintained a stance of law and order. Now, they support armed insurrection on government property. They used to claim they were the fiscally responsible ones. How has the deficit fared under their hero?

 

Most importantly,  we are arguing with cult members. Logic is irrelevant. They have created a new concept called alternative facts.

 

This is the small scummy pond where DR thinks he is the king, much like his hero fancies himself a king. He is to be pitied, not engaged

 

 

 

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

This is an interesting watch/listen. Even I could understand what he was saying:
 

 

 

Pretty interesting stuff. There was some TB vaccine discussion earlier in the covid news cycle about how they still give some of those vaccines in Japan, India and some parts of Asia that are getting underaffected right now.

 

He praises the Gates Foundation's work, which is credit where credit is due. I will keep echoing this because there's a strange thing going on here about Gates.

 

He downplays the significance of Remdesivir in this fight so far and utterly dismissed HCQ as pure anecdotal and has no acceptance among research scientists.