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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

I know what you mean. It's picking up in small rural town I live in NY. Was only 12 cases couple days ago now up to 28 for the county.

 

Anecdotally, my brother says his covid-only floor in Buffalo keeps getting much busier each day. He is working a ton.

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3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Florida has cases in line with other places and even ahead of them from where they were a few weeks ago. They are not projected to peak for 3 more weeks while other states NY, NJ, PA) in the NE are peaking now. I think it's a little too early to say it is out of the woods yet. 

 

I hope so but Spain and Italy didn't drop precipitously and in fact are running a little lower than their highs but sat for a long time at their peak deaths. It might just be a holiday and things are getting undercounted. It's really hard to look at a single day and feel too confident. Still better to be down than up. 

You’re definitely correct about Florida. It may be too early to tell. I’m just throwing out my random theory that I could see them doing a little better than some of northern states. Florida has an outdoor lifestyle, and nothing that compares to the density of NYC or Boston, I could see them faring a little better. People in NYC love getting out and socializing. That’s what draws so many to that city. Unfortunately, in the time of a pandemic that becomes a hurdle to overcome. NYC has millions of people attending functions on a daily basis, all jammed into crowded rooms indoors. 

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1 minute ago, SirAndrew said:

You’re definitely correct about Florida. It may be too early to tell. I’m just throwing out my random theory that I could see them doing a little better than some of northern states. Florida has an outdoor lifestyle, and nothing that compares to the density of NYC or Boston, I could see them faring a little better. People in NYC love getting out and socializing. That’s what draws so many to that city. Unfortunately, in the time of a pandemic that becomes a hurdle to overcome. NYC has millions of people attending functions on a daily basis, all jammed into crowded rooms indoors. 

 

Nothing will rival NYC in the US. That's clear at this point. But I'm not sure how Florida will stack up against states like PA, where PA is peaking now and FL is still to peak in 3 weeks, and currently they have about the same case count. Case count is a dubious number but if it's equally dubious in both states, then it's at least the same error in both. I hope it gets spared.

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NEWS: NYU scientists: Largest U.S. study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest factor in New York’s hospitalizations. 

 

“Among other things, the presence of obesity in the study points to a potentially important role of heightened inflammation in patients, a phenomenon that has been a topic of much speculation in numerous studies of the disease.

 

Petrilli and colleagues at the Grossman School, and doctors at the NYU Langone Health center, studied the electronic patient records of 4,103 individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 in the New York City healthcare system between March 1st and April 2nd.”

 
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Coronavirus: Fauci says US 'could have saved lives' with earlier action

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52264860

 

When asked about a New York Times report that Dr Fauci and other officials had suggested aggressive mitigation towards the end of February, Dr Fauci said health officials could only make recommendations from a "pure health standpoint".

 

"Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes, it's not. But it is what it is, we are where we are right now."

 

Dr Fauci, who is leading the US response to coronavirus, added that "no one is going to deny" that logically, earlier mitigation could have saved lives.

 

But he said "what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated".

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Just now, John in Jax said:

Just throwing this out there......if you take out NY, NJ, Conn, and Massachusetts, the numbers in ALL of the other states seem to be on a par with an average flu year.

 

I'm surprised no one has mentioned that the US is actually net positive for total deaths, if you count that every other cause is down.

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1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said:

Remember, FLA shipped their spring breakers and NO shipped their Mardi Gras partiers back to other states. 

 

More like let them leave.  Neither state/city wanted them to stay.

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The math behind social distancing

The Math Behind Social Distancing

As we wait for scientists and healthcare professionals to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, there is another, more readily available tool at our disposal.

Social distancing, defined as measures taken to reduce physical contact, is the first line of defense for containing an infectious disease like COVID-19. That’s because these infections spread when people cough, sneeze, or touch surfaces on which the virus resides.

To help us grasp the impact these measures can actually have, today’s infographic illustrates how a reduction in social exposure can theoretically contain the spread of infection.

Theoretical Potential

The calculations used to create today’s infographic come from Signer Laboratory, a stem cell research lab located in the Moores Cancer Center at the University of California San Diego.

Using a summation formula makes it possible to estimate the number of new infections over a 30 day period, across three scenarios.

Scenario 5 Day Period 30 Day Period
No social distancing practiced 1 person infects 2.5* others 406 people infected as a result
50% reduction in social exposure 1 person infects 1.25* others 15 people infected as a result
75% reduction in social exposure 1 person infects 0.625* others 2.5 people infected as a result

*For estimations only. It is not possible to infect only a fraction of another person.

To arrive at the figures reported above, Robert A.J. Signer, Ph.D., and his team made a number of key assumptions.

First, they estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 to be 2.5, a figure supported by recent research. This means that, on average, an infected individual will spread the disease to 2.5 other people.

Next, they assumed that an infected individual will unknowingly spread COVID-19 over the median five day incubation period. After this period, the individual will begin to develop symptoms, immediately self quarantine, and no longer pose a threat.

Finally, they assumed a direct linear correlation between social interactions and R0. This means that when an infected person reduces their physical contact with others by 50%, they also spread the disease by an amount 50% less.

 

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-math-behind-social-distancing/

 

Lots more great info in article.

Edited by Buffalo Bills Fan
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10 hours ago, BillStime said:


I’m pretty sure Trump absolutely destroying our pandemic infrastructure had nothing to do with Trumps half assed response. 
 

I have news Republican Party - 21,400 Americans are dead. It is widely reported that there were warning and this was largely avoidable. 
 

You knew. You were briefed. You used that information to sell your stocks. 

 

Don’t think you will not he held accountable.

 

And you let it continue!

 

ps: How many Benghazi hearings on four unfortunate deaths? Just like Russia; this will haunt Trump and the GOPigs endlessly. 

 

I remember this episode!!  1938, W-ENNNNNNNNN-B-C radio. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Coronavirus: Fauci says US 'could have saved lives' with earlier action

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52264860

 

When asked about a New York Times report that Dr Fauci and other officials had suggested aggressive mitigation towards the end of February, Dr Fauci said health officials could only make recommendations from a "pure health standpoint".

 

"Often, the recommendation is taken. Sometimes, it's not. But it is what it is, we are where we are right now."

 

Dr Fauci, who is leading the US response to coronavirus, added that "no one is going to deny" that logically, earlier mitigation could have saved lives.

 

But he said "what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated".

This seems like common sense.  In fact, I’d think if we applied social distancing techniques, shuttered people in place and shut down the economy with regularity we would have less deaths by the flu, car accident, and line drives to the skull at baseball diamond. 
 


 

 

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