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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Narcissistic??? That's seriously all you got on Trump at this point?

 

He's an incompetent moron... and every time you post like this, I legitimately do question more and more just what your motivations might be

This article, which retraces the failures over the first 70 days of the coronavirus crisis, is based on 47 interviews with administration officials, public health experts, intelligence officers and others involved in fighting the pandemic. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information and decisions.

 

...

 

 

The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China on Jan. 3. Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief.

 

And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that had outflanked America’s defenses and was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens. That more-than-two-month stretch now stands as critical time that was squandered.

 

...

 

The most consequential failure involved a breakdown in efforts to develop a diagnostic test that could be mass produced and distributed across the United States, enabling agencies to map early outbreaks of the disease, and impose quarantine measures to contain them. At one point, a Food and Drug Administration official tore into lab officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, telling them their lapses in protocol, including concerns that the lab did not meet the criteria for sterile conditions, were so serious that the FDA would “shut you down” if the CDC were a commercial, rather than government, entity.

 

...

 

 

In mid-March, as Trump was rebranding himself a wartime president and belatedly urging the public to help slow the spread of the virus, Republican leaders were poring over grim polling data that suggested Trump was lulling his followers into a false sense of security in the face of a lethal threat.

 

The poll showed that far more Republicans than Democrats were being influenced by Trump’s dismissive depictions of the virus and the comparably scornful coverage on Fox News and other conservative networks. As a result, Republicans were in distressingly large numbers refusing to change travel plans, follow “social distancing” guidelines, stock up on supplies or otherwise take the coronavirus threat seriously.

 

...

 

The CDC learned of a cluster of cases in China on Dec. 31 and began developing reports for HHS on Jan. 1. But the most unambiguous warning that U.S. officials received about the coronavirus came Jan. 3, when Robert Redfield, the CDC director, received a call from a counterpart in China. The official told Redfield that a mysterious respiratory illness was spreading in Wuhan, a congested commercial city of 11 million people in the communist country’s interior.

 

Redfield quickly relayed the disturbing news to Alex Azar, the secretary of HHS, the agency that oversees the CDC and other public health entities. Azar, in turn, ensured that the White House was notified, instructing his chief of staff to share the Chinese report with the National Security Council.

 

...

 

U.S. officials began taking preliminary steps to counter a potential outbreak. By mid-January, Robert Kadlec, an Air Force officer and physician who serves as assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, had instructed subordinates to draw up contingency plans for enforcing the Defense Production Act, a measure that enables the government to compel private companies to produce equipment or devices critical to the country’s security. Aides were bitterly divided over whether to implement the act, and nothing happened for many weeks.

 

On Jan. 14, Kadlec scribbled a single word in a notebook he carries: “Coronavirus!!!”

 

Despite the flurry of activity at lower levels of his administration, Trump was not substantially briefed by health officials about the coronavirus until Jan.18, when, while spending the weekend at Mar-a-Lago, he took a call from Azar.

 

Even before the heath secretary could get a word in about the virus, Trump cut him off and began criticizing Azar for his handling of an aborted federal ban on vaping products, a matter that vexed the president.

 

...

 

The CDC had issued its first public alert about the coronavirus Jan. 8, and by the 17th was monitoring major airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, where large numbers of passengers arrived each day from China.

 

In other ways, though, the situation was already spinning out of control, with multiplying cases in Seattle, intransigence by the Chinese, mounting questions from the public, and nothing in place to stop infected travelers from arriving from abroad.

 

Trump was out of the country for this critical stretch, taking part in the annual global economic forum in Davos, Switzerland. He was accompanied by a contingent of top officials including national security adviser Robert O’Brien, who took a trans-Atlantic call from an anxious Azar.

 

...

 

On Jan. 22, Trump received his first question about the coronavirus in an interview on CNBC while in Davos. Asked whether he was worried about a potential pandemic, Trump said, “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. . . . It’s going to be just fine.”

 

...

 

On Jan. 29, Mulvaney chaired a meeting in the White House Situation Room in which officials debated moving travel restrictions to “Level 4,” meaning a “do not travel” advisory from the State Department. Then, the next day, China took the draconian step of locking down the entire Hubei province, which encompasses Wuhan.

 

That move by Beijing finally prompted a commensurate action by the Trump administration. On Jan. 31, Azar announced restrictions barring any non-U.S. citizen who had been in China during the preceding two weeks from entering the United States.

 

...

 

But by that point, 300,000 people had come into the United States from China over the previous month. There were only 7,818 confirmed cases around the world at the end of January, according to figures released by the World Health Organization — but it is now clear that the virus was spreading uncontrollably.

 

...

 

A national stockpile of N95 protective masks, gowns, gloves and other supplies was already woefully inadequate after years of underfunding

 

 

 

 

 

long article. Read it yourself 

 

 

 

 

I think I might let you out of the bet just because I feel bad for you and I really and truly hope much of what you say is just the stubborn refusal to lose an argument rather than actually believing most of what you spew.

 

Lol. Washington Post isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

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3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Narcissistic??? That's seriously all you got on Trump at this point?

 

He's an incompetent moron... and every time you post like this, I legitimately do question more and more just what your motivations might be

 

Imma gonna vote for the China first candidate.  Anything less is unamerican.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, TH3 said:

4 percent of world population.....30 percent of CV cases.....The winning...tremendous....10/10


tapdance for death a little harder 🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️

Edited by Teddy KGB
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:


I didn’t vote for him last time — but if the choice forced upon us is Trump or Biden, it’s an easy choice for me personally. 
 

One is a narcissistic #######. 
 

The other is a corrupt, senile, and deeply flawed candidate with an abysmal track record and who wouldn’t be president as much as a puppet for the crowd who made it their mission to gut America for the past 20+ years. 
 

But that’s me. 


*********
 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Scavino45/status/1246655490886639616


This is pretty much where I am.  I didn’t vote for Trump last time around either.   I find him to be An off-the-charts narcissist.  I don’t like how he communicates some things.  His petulance pisses me off.

 

But on the substance he’s done a good job with the economy and his actions considering how woefully unprepared the country was for this sort of a pandemic disease which goes back to every other administration and how quickly they are righting the ship on the testing front, the response with FEMA and national guard assisting state and local governments and the responsive task force has been solid.  
 

And truth be told, I was 100% against the trade tariffs and he received such intense criticism not just from the lefties but even the establishment Republicans and he still pressed on despite the withering criticism from them and the press.   But he was the only bastard crazy enough to go through with it and what I realized was that he had something that no other president had.

 

unpredictability.  World leaders could not gauge it and therefore at the end of the day it caused them to cave and he won better trade deals than we had before.    
 

That same unpredictability also helps him with his foreign policy.

 

So I have gone from a fervent anti Trumper to someone who still loathes many of his personal qualities who will most likely pull the lever for him this time.  Specially over someone like Biden who has a long history of bad decision making.   To this day he is still a bad decision maker on important matters ie. China travel ban.   That would have been disastrous.   Not to mention that if Biden were to be president, he wouldn’t be the one in charge.  He doesn’t have the mental acuity or stamina to lead.  The country would be led by a consortium of unelected lefties from his staff

Edited by Magox
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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Narcissistic??? That's seriously all you got on Trump at this point?

 

He's an incompetent moron... and every time you post like this, I legitimately do question more and more just what your motivations might be

 

 

 

 

 

I think I might let you out of the bet just because I feel bad for you and I really and truly hope much of what you say is just the stubborn refusal to lose an argument rather than actually believing most of what you spew.

What were your china loving liberals doing the first 70 days? 

Let's see.......

1. They called Trump a racist when he decided to ban travel to china.

2. Pelosi was telling people to come on down to Chinatown in February. 

3. During the most crucial time of the virus spreading in the US, the Democrats were holding a sham impeachment trial.

4. Let's not forget the mayor of NYC saying it's perfectly fine to go out on public. 

5. Pelosi rejecting the relief bill to add a ton of pork for her new "green ideas", which delayed the American people and small businesses the money they so desperately need.

6. Sending the endowment of the arts 25 million before anyone received their check. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that her friends are on the board. Yeah, just a coincidence. 

7. Bumbling biden saying he would not have closed the border. Can you imagine how much worse it would be if he were in charge?

 

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are many more I missed. And you have the nerve to call Trump incompetent? Thank God he is in charge instead of the left! I know when this is over, he is the right person to turn this economy back into the huge success pre covid19. 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Narcissistic??? That's seriously all you got on Trump at this point?

 

He's an incompetent moron... and every time you post like this, I legitimately do question more and more just what your motivations might be

This article, which retraces the failures over the first 70 days of the coronavirus crisis, is based on 47 interviews with administration officials, public health experts, intelligence officers and others involved in fighting the pandemic. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information and decisions.

 

That article is bull**** and every legitimate timeline of information absolutely destroys that 70 day accusation. Why don't you do some of your own research and stop just runnig around regurgitating information that fits your narrative , but that you probably don't come close to understanding.

Edited by billsfan1959
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7 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

I didn’t vote for him last time — but if the choice forced upon us is Trump or Biden, it’s an easy choice for me personally. 

 

Yep. Same for me. First presidential election I did not vote in. Had little respect for either canditate from a personal perspective.

 

For the most part, I try to separate what I think of a candidate, personally,  and vote for what I think he/she will do from a policy perspective in regard to what I think is best for this country - or at least vote against what I think will harm this country. I just couldn't do  it in 2016.

 

Easy choice this time.

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We didn’t have to have ventilator shortage — leaders chose not to prep for pandemic

 

It’s a little late. Several years ago, after learning that the Empire State’s stockpile of medical equipment had 16,000 fewer ventilators than the 18,000 New Yorkers would need in a severe pandemic, state public-health leaders came to a fork in the road.

 

They could have chosen to buy more ventilators to back up the supplies hospitals maintain. ­Instead, the health commissioner, Howard Zucker, assembled a task force for rationing the ventilators they already had.

 

In 2015, that task force came up with rules that will be imposed when ventilators run short. ­Patients assigned a red code will have highest access, and other ­patients will be assigned green, yellow or blue (the worst), ­depending on a “triage officer’s” decision.

In truth, a death officer. Let’s not sugar-coat it. It won’t be up to your own doctor.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-didnt-have-to-have-ventilator-shortage-leaders-chose-not-to-prep-for-pandemic/

 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf

 

Did Cuomo  ever explain why he didn't buy more ventilators after the 2015 NY report ?
 

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1 minute ago, ALF said:


We didn’t have to have ventilator shortage — leaders chose not to prep for pandemic

 

It’s a little late. Several years ago, after learning that the Empire State’s stockpile of medical equipment had 16,000 fewer ventilators than the 18,000 New Yorkers would need in a severe pandemic, state public-health leaders came to a fork in the road.

 

They could have chosen to buy more ventilators to back up the supplies hospitals maintain. ­Instead, the health commissioner, Howard Zucker, assembled a task force for rationing the ventilators they already had.

 

In 2015, that task force came up with rules that will be imposed when ventilators run short. ­Patients assigned a red code will have highest access, and other ­patients will be assigned green, yellow or blue (the worst), ­depending on a “triage officer’s” decision.

In truth, a death officer. Let’s not sugar-coat it. It won’t be up to your own doctor.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/we-didnt-have-to-have-ventilator-shortage-leaders-chose-not-to-prep-for-pandemic/

 

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf

 

Did Cuomo  ever explain why he didn't buy more ventilators after the 2015 NY report ?
 

He doesn’t have to because the media will never ask him that question or any other that might put him in less than the heavenly glow of the New Democrat front runner for 2020. 

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8 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Will you vote for him?

 

Edit: not to be a dick, truly.


Absolutely. 

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2 minutes ago, Nanker said:

He doesn’t have to because the media will never ask him that question or any other that might put him in less than the heavenly glow of the New Democrat front runner for 2020. 

 

Then a valid question for Trump to ask him

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, westside2 said:

What were your china loving liberals doing the first 70 days? 

Let's see.......

1. They called Trump a racist when he decided to ban travel to china.

2. Pelosi was telling people to come on down to Chinatown in February. 

3. During the most crucial time of the virus spreading in the US, the Democrats were holding a sham impeachment trial.

4. Let's not forget the mayor of NYC saying it's perfectly fine to go out on public. 

5. Pelosi rejecting the relief bill to add a ton of pork for her new "green ideas", which delayed the American people and small businesses the money they so desperately need.

6. Sending the endowment of the arts 25 million before anyone received their check. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that her friends are on the board. Yeah, just a coincidence. 

7. Bumbling biden saying he would not have closed the border. Can you imagine how much worse it would be if he were in charge?

 

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are many more I missed. And you have the nerve to call Trump incompetent? Thank God he is in charge instead of the left! I know when this is over, he is the right person to turn this economy back into the huge success pre covid19. 

 

 

I have posted an accurate timeline since the December 31, 2019, statement from the WHO of some "unusual pneumonia" case in China into March of 2020. I have posted it at least 5 times in this thread and challenged a number of posters to demonstrate at which point in January or February should Trump or any leader in the world, outside of China, understood the magnitude of what was about to happen - and why.

 

Not one single poster answered

 

Here is the timeline:

 

Timeline

- On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan
- On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.
- On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 
- By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China
- On Jan 20, First US case is reported
- On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force
- On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.
- On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.
- On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.
- By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.
- By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.
- On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea
- Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China
- Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China
- On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic
- On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders
- By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.
- On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

Edited by billsfan1959
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3 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Then a valid question for Trump to ask him

Trump’s by and large playing nice with him and the Democrat governors that aren’t biting at his ankles. 
 

You’re right though, he will ask him that and more if and when Biden collapses his campaign and Cuomo becomes the nominee. I give that about a 55 - 45% chance of happening at this point. He’ll have to answer for his time as chief of HUD and his role in the housing mortgage collapse that fueled the Great Recession too. 

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3 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have posted an accurate timeline since the December 31, 2019, statement from the WHO of some "unusual pneumonia" case in China into March of 2020. I have posted it at least 5 times in this thread and challenged a number of posters to demonstrate at which point in January or February should Trump or any leader in the world, outside of China, understood the magnitude of what was about to happen - and why.

 

Not one single poster answered

They are part of the left propaganda machine which is controlled by china. There only goal is to get rid of this president, by any means possible and destroy democracy in this country. 

Does anyone notice that they all repeat the same lies over and over again, no matter when presented with the truth? 

They have an agenda. They want to see this country fail. They are traitors to America. This is very much a war against the communist sympathizers on the left for the heart and soul of this great country. 

Do not take this lightly, because they don't. 

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9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have posted an accurate timeline since the December 31, 2019, statement from the WHO of some "unusual pneumonia" case in China into March of 2020. I have posted it at least 5 times in this thread and challenged a number of posters to demonstrate at which point in January or February should Trump or any leader in the world, outside of China, understood the magnitude of what was about to happen - and why.

 

Not one single poster answered

Maybe if Our spy network hadn’t been obliterated we might have gotten some warnings earlier. 
 

The world will never be the same. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, westside2 said:

They are part of the left propaganda machine which is controlled by china. There only goal is to get rid of this president, by any means possible and destroy democracy in this country. 

Does anyone notice that they all repeat the same lies over and over again, no matter when presented with the truth? 

They have an agenda. They want to see this country fail. They are traitors to America. This is very much a war against the communist sympathizers on the left for the heart and soul of this great country. 

Do not take this lightly, because they don't. 

Yep.

 

BTW, I edited the post you quoted to add the timeline I referenced. I'll put it here so you don't have to go back:

 

- On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan
- On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.
- On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 
- By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China
- On Jan 20, First US case is reported
- On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force
- On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.
- On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.
- On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.
- By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.
- By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.
- On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea
- Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China
- Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China
- On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic
- On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders
- By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.
- On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

Edited by billsfan1959
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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I have posted an accurate timeline since the December 31, 2019, statement from the WHO of some "unusual pneumonia" case in China into March of 2020. I have posted it at least 5 times in this thread and challenged a number of posters to demonstrate at which point in January or February should Trump or any leader in the world, outside of China, understood the magnitude of what was about to happen - and why.

 

Not one single poster answered

 

Here is the timeline:

 

Timeline

- On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan
- On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.
- On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 
- By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China
- On Jan 20, First US case is reported
- On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force
- On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.
- On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.
- On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.
- By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.
- By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.
- On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea
- Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China
- Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China
- On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic
- On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders
- By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.
- On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

Thank you.  This is much better than mine. We must keep reposting this. 

Edited by westside2

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, B-Man said:

THINGS SEEM TO BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MODELS: 

 

“There are 15,905 people currently hospitalized. Cuomo said two-thirds of hospitalized patients have been discharged, and the total number of hospitalizations dipped yesterday.” 

 

The numbers in New York are bad, but don’t seem to be going as predicted.

 

Related:

Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-3.47.01-PM.png

 

 

If this holds up, it’s great news, except for the models.

 

 

 

Plus, Florida:

 

Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-3.48.16-PM-429

 

 

Well, NYC is dense and relies on public transport in a way no other US city does. In addition, it’s north and Florida is south — so if seasonality is going to slow down spread it’s going to hit NYC later.

 

Or these are artifacts of reporting problems and don’t mean anything. Stay tuned. If the Wuhan coronavirus were to turn out to be seasonal, that would be huge news, though of course the 1918 flu was seasonal and came roaring back in the fall.

 

But note that something similar happened with Ebola: “New Ebola cases in Liberia, where streets were littered with the dead just a few months ago, now number in the single digits, according to the World Health Organization. In neighboring Sierra Leone and Guinea, the other two nations in the Ebola hot zone, new cases have fallen sharply in the last month, dropping to fewer than 100 in a week at the end of January — a level not seen in the region since June. . . .

 

Experts are trying to understand how the disease, which has defied the ominous predictions of the world’s top infectious disease researchers, appears to be extinguishing itself with surprising swiftness. In September, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had projected that, by Jan. 20, the outbreak could reach 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone, but by that date only 21,797 were recorded in all three countries. While many have emphasized the enormous assistance hauled into the region by the United States and international organizations, there is strong evidence, especially here in Monrovia, that the biggest change came from the precautions taken by residents themselves.”

 

Perhaps people change behavior more swiftly than models take into account.

 

 

Meanwhile, there’s this, which I would like to be true: Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate. But that’s a much higher number than other figures I’ve seen.

 

 

Related: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

 

All models are wrong; some models are useful.

 

UPDATE: From the comments: “I suspect we are seeing the impact of the much less strict voluntary measures that were taken well before the harsh lockdowns went into effect. It may turn out that washing hands was enough to stop this thing after all. Then again, maybe not. We are far from done with this and it will be about 30sec after it ends before everyone starts cherrypicking data to prove that their position was right all along.” Well, that last prediction is spot-on for sure.

 

 

ANOTHER UPDATE: How close are the latest Alabama coronavirus numbers to previous projections? “The total number of cases and deaths has fallen short of what was projected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. IHME has sought to forecast, with advanced metrics, the amount of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 and the daily totals of deaths resulting from the virus.”

 

 

 

 

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Regarding Florida, I think we all looked at the packed beaches at spring break time and thought man, Florida's fvcked. Well, those kids partying on the beach by and large were not Florida residents but came from other parts of the country and they returned after a few days. The people who caught the virus from partying in Florida simply took it home with them and are in the statistics from whence they came. I would expect that the immense part of Florida's population that is older is doing a better job of prevention of catching the virus due to their natural propensity to follow orders and their fear of catching a death sentence. 

Edited by 3rdnlng
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7 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Yep.

 

BTW, I edited the post you quoted to add the timeline I referenced. I'll put it here so you don't have to go back:

 

- On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan
- On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.
- On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 
- By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China
- On Jan 20, First US case is reported
- On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force
- On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.
- On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.
- On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.
- By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.
- By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.
- On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea
- Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China
- Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China
- On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic
- On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders
- By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.
- On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

You're missing a very important entry from March 9, when a certain mayor didn't want to cancel St Patrick's Parade, and NYS case count was about 150.

 

https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/mayor-says-nyc-has-no-plans-to-cancel-st-patricks-day-parade-as-ireland-cancels-dublins-parade-amid-coronavirus-fears.html

 

"The mayor emphasized Monday that the coronavirus is not a disease people can contract simply by being in a large open space."

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