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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

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44 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

“Mitigation is working” the good doctor said and Trump had to jump in and say “but, we are not going to destroy our country.” So you know what trump cares about. He wants people back to work over people alive.

 

If you think more people are going to commit suicide than will die for the virus, you are fake news! 

 

Both men are correct despite the messengers. That's the difficult problem.

 

Yes the "mitigation" works.  It is giving hospitals time and saving lives.

 

However, in perpetuity, it will seed civil unrest and put exceptional strain on already battered cities, police departments, the NG and the supply chain. That's the scenario when the grocery store closes. 

 

The virus is trouble. The virus with looting, fires, and a 24-7 crime wave is the big trouble that has so many more vulnerable people than the virus alone.

 

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2 minutes ago, dpberr said:

 

Both men are correct despite the messengers. That's the difficult problem.

 

Yes the "mitigation" works.  It is giving hospitals time and saving lives.

 

However, in perpetuity, it will seed civil unrest and put exceptional strain on already battered cities, police departments, the NG and the supply chain. That's the scenario when the grocery store closes. 

 

The virus is trouble. The virus with looting, fires, and a 24-7 crime wave is the big trouble that has so many more vulnerable people than the virus alone.

 

Except “in perpetuity” was not mentioned. 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


That is such a lay-up that I will be very disappointed in our resident TDS crowd if they don’t come up with the obvious insult to Trump followers. Very disappointed.

It was an observation.  Relax.

 

20 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

image.thumb.jpeg.44131a94bbeca31edb47444496b24b67.jpeg

I actually prefer this meme since that one's horrible.

 

1rlc20.jpg

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Just now, Doc Brown said:

It was an observation.  Relax.

 


Relax? I really expected a great insult.  I have been disappointed.  😞 
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It was an observation.  Relax.

 

I actually prefer this meme since that one's horrible.

 

1rlc20.jpg

That’s ***** funny! As if Trump could beat anyone at Jeopardy! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

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this is a good read if you haven't seen it already

 

https://medium.com/the-mission/why-coronavirus-should-be-the-least-of-your-worries-d6ed6abe75bc?fbclid=IwAR1lif3cDpKrOgqJ1O8bzfJqXJzHQPtWr22QLvyUvJAtAhtOaGtdK3-nWCU

23 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

That’s ***** funny! As if Trump could beat anyone at Jeopardy! 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Yeah? How many times have you been elected President? 

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28 minutes ago, Cinga said:

this is a good read if you haven't seen it already

 

https://medium.com/the-mission/why-coronavirus-should-be-the-least-of-your-worries-d6ed6abe75bc?fbclid=IwAR1lif3cDpKrOgqJ1O8bzfJqXJzHQPtWr22QLvyUvJAtAhtOaGtdK3-nWCU

Yeah? How many times have you been elected President? 


President of his own fan club? Plenty of times. President of the idiots united clubhouse that meets to synchronize their messaging for PPP? Never. He would have tied for first with the 20 other candidates who also voted for themselves, but someone logged in under their second account and doubled their vote tally. 

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THINGS SEEM TO BE FALLING SHORT OF THE MODELS: 

 

“There are 15,905 people currently hospitalized. Cuomo said two-thirds of hospitalized patients have been discharged, and the total number of hospitalizations dipped yesterday.” 

 

The numbers in New York are bad, but don’t seem to be going as predicted.

 

Related:

Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-3.47.01-PM.png

 

 

If this holds up, it’s great news, except for the models.

 

 

 

Plus, Florida:

 

Screen-Shot-2020-04-04-at-3.48.16-PM-429

 

 

Well, NYC is dense and relies on public transport in a way no other US city does. In addition, it’s north and Florida is south — so if seasonality is going to slow down spread it’s going to hit NYC later.

 

Or these are artifacts of reporting problems and don’t mean anything. Stay tuned. If the Wuhan coronavirus were to turn out to be seasonal, that would be huge news, though of course the 1918 flu was seasonal and came roaring back in the fall.

 

But note that something similar happened with Ebola: “New Ebola cases in Liberia, where streets were littered with the dead just a few months ago, now number in the single digits, according to the World Health Organization. In neighboring Sierra Leone and Guinea, the other two nations in the Ebola hot zone, new cases have fallen sharply in the last month, dropping to fewer than 100 in a week at the end of January — a level not seen in the region since June. . . .

 

Experts are trying to understand how the disease, which has defied the ominous predictions of the world’s top infectious disease researchers, appears to be extinguishing itself with surprising swiftness. In September, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had projected that, by Jan. 20, the outbreak could reach 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone, but by that date only 21,797 were recorded in all three countries. While many have emphasized the enormous assistance hauled into the region by the United States and international organizations, there is strong evidence, especially here in Monrovia, that the biggest change came from the precautions taken by residents themselves.”

 

Perhaps people change behavior more swiftly than models take into account.

 

 

Meanwhile, there’s this, which I would like to be true: Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate. But that’s a much higher number than other figures I’ve seen.

 

 

Related: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.

 

All models are wrong; some models are useful.

 

UPDATE: From the comments: “I suspect we are seeing the impact of the much less strict voluntary measures that were taken well before the harsh lockdowns went into effect. It may turn out that washing hands was enough to stop this thing after all. Then again, maybe not. We are far from done with this and it will be about 30sec after it ends before everyone starts cherrypicking data to prove that their position was right all along.” Well, that last prediction is spot-on for sure.

 

 

ANOTHER UPDATE: How close are the latest Alabama coronavirus numbers to previous projections? “The total number of cases and deaths has fallen short of what was projected by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. IHME has sought to forecast, with advanced metrics, the amount of hospital beds needed to treat COVID-19 and the daily totals of deaths resulting from the virus.”

 

 

 

 

.
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Seasonality would be a gift from god assuming that the world doesn’t blow the extra time to get prepared for the second wave in the fall.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Chef Jim said:


I’m not ok with the way the situation has been handled under the current administration you tool. 
 

You have no clue do you? 

Will you vote for him?

 

Edit: not to be a dick, truly.

Edited by Gene Frenkle

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Jesus worried on something............. My nice into hospital from Jamestown mercy flight. (unsure people tell me. But she is on a machine. Only 5 no pre-existing conditions. Feeling like drinking hardcore going to walk to store.. Not to think about it. Unsure if covid-19. Only 5............ :( Going to get myself some drinks............................................................. Worried as hell.

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Sorry for seriious. Heard maybe lyme from ticks. Still sucks. But not for sure it is possibility But for sure ticks are out have to be careful with them. A week ago someone got lyme from a tick..... They suck badly. There already out. But i'll keep everyone up to date.

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1 hour ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Will you vote for him?

 

Edit: not to be a dick, truly.


I didn’t vote for him last time — but if the choice forced upon us is Trump or Biden, it’s an easy choice for me personally. 
 

One is a narcissistic #######. 
 

The other is a corrupt, senile, and deeply flawed candidate with an abysmal track record and who wouldn’t be president as much as a puppet for the crowd who made it their mission to gut America for the past 20+ years. 
 

But that’s me. 


*********
 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Scavino45/status/1246655490886639616

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Jesus worried on something............. My nice into hospital from Jamestown mercy flight. (unsure people tell me. But she is on a machine. Only 5 no pre-existing conditions. Feeling like drinking hardcore going to walk to store.. Not to think about it. Unsure if covid-19. Only 5............ :( Going to get myself some drinks............................................................. Worried as hell.

 

1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Sorry for seriious. Heard maybe lyme from ticks. Still sucks. But not for sure it is possibility But for sure ticks are out have to be careful with them. A week ago someone got lyme from a tick..... They suck badly. There already out. But i'll keep everyone up to date.

 

Keeping her in my prayers. 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Sorry for seriious. Heard maybe lyme from ticks. Still sucks. But not for sure it is possibility But for sure ticks are out have to be careful with them. A week ago someone got lyme from a tick..... They suck badly. There already out. But i'll keep everyone up to date.

Hope everything works out. My best to your family.

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1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:


I didn’t vote for him last time — but if the choice forced upon us is Trump or Biden, it’s an easy choice for me personally. 
 

One is a narcissistic #######. 
 

The other is a corrupt, senile, and deeply flawed candidate with an abysmal track record and who wouldn’t be president as much as a puppet for the crowd who made it their mission to gut America for the past 20+ years. 
 

But that’s me. 


*********
 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Scavino45/status/1246655490886639616

 

Narcissistic??? That's seriously all you got on Trump at this point?

 

He's an incompetent moron... and every time you post like this, I legitimately do question more and more just what your motivations might be

This article, which retraces the failures over the first 70 days of the coronavirus crisis, is based on 47 interviews with administration officials, public health experts, intelligence officers and others involved in fighting the pandemic. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information and decisions.

 

...

 

 

The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China on Jan. 3. Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief.

 

And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that had outflanked America’s defenses and was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens. That more-than-two-month stretch now stands as critical time that was squandered.

 

...

 

The most consequential failure involved a breakdown in efforts to develop a diagnostic test that could be mass produced and distributed across the United States, enabling agencies to map early outbreaks of the disease, and impose quarantine measures to contain them. At one point, a Food and Drug Administration official tore into lab officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, telling them their lapses in protocol, including concerns that the lab did not meet the criteria for sterile conditions, were so serious that the FDA would “shut you down” if the CDC were a commercial, rather than government, entity.

 

...

 

 

In mid-March, as Trump was rebranding himself a wartime president and belatedly urging the public to help slow the spread of the virus, Republican leaders were poring over grim polling data that suggested Trump was lulling his followers into a false sense of security in the face of a lethal threat.

 

The poll showed that far more Republicans than Democrats were being influenced by Trump’s dismissive depictions of the virus and the comparably scornful coverage on Fox News and other conservative networks. As a result, Republicans were in distressingly large numbers refusing to change travel plans, follow “social distancing” guidelines, stock up on supplies or otherwise take the coronavirus threat seriously.

 

...

 

The CDC learned of a cluster of cases in China on Dec. 31 and began developing reports for HHS on Jan. 1. But the most unambiguous warning that U.S. officials received about the coronavirus came Jan. 3, when Robert Redfield, the CDC director, received a call from a counterpart in China. The official told Redfield that a mysterious respiratory illness was spreading in Wuhan, a congested commercial city of 11 million people in the communist country’s interior.

 

Redfield quickly relayed the disturbing news to Alex Azar, the secretary of HHS, the agency that oversees the CDC and other public health entities. Azar, in turn, ensured that the White House was notified, instructing his chief of staff to share the Chinese report with the National Security Council.

 

...

 

U.S. officials began taking preliminary steps to counter a potential outbreak. By mid-January, Robert Kadlec, an Air Force officer and physician who serves as assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, had instructed subordinates to draw up contingency plans for enforcing the Defense Production Act, a measure that enables the government to compel private companies to produce equipment or devices critical to the country’s security. Aides were bitterly divided over whether to implement the act, and nothing happened for many weeks.

 

On Jan. 14, Kadlec scribbled a single word in a notebook he carries: “Coronavirus!!!”

 

Despite the flurry of activity at lower levels of his administration, Trump was not substantially briefed by health officials about the coronavirus until Jan.18, when, while spending the weekend at Mar-a-Lago, he took a call from Azar.

 

Even before the heath secretary could get a word in about the virus, Trump cut him off and began criticizing Azar for his handling of an aborted federal ban on vaping products, a matter that vexed the president.

 

...

 

The CDC had issued its first public alert about the coronavirus Jan. 8, and by the 17th was monitoring major airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, where large numbers of passengers arrived each day from China.

 

In other ways, though, the situation was already spinning out of control, with multiplying cases in Seattle, intransigence by the Chinese, mounting questions from the public, and nothing in place to stop infected travelers from arriving from abroad.

 

Trump was out of the country for this critical stretch, taking part in the annual global economic forum in Davos, Switzerland. He was accompanied by a contingent of top officials including national security adviser Robert O’Brien, who took a trans-Atlantic call from an anxious Azar.

 

...

 

On Jan. 22, Trump received his first question about the coronavirus in an interview on CNBC while in Davos. Asked whether he was worried about a potential pandemic, Trump said, “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. . . . It’s going to be just fine.”

 

...

 

On Jan. 29, Mulvaney chaired a meeting in the White House Situation Room in which officials debated moving travel restrictions to “Level 4,” meaning a “do not travel” advisory from the State Department. Then, the next day, China took the draconian step of locking down the entire Hubei province, which encompasses Wuhan.

 

That move by Beijing finally prompted a commensurate action by the Trump administration. On Jan. 31, Azar announced restrictions barring any non-U.S. citizen who had been in China during the preceding two weeks from entering the United States.

 

...

 

But by that point, 300,000 people had come into the United States from China over the previous month. There were only 7,818 confirmed cases around the world at the end of January, according to figures released by the World Health Organization — but it is now clear that the virus was spreading uncontrollably.

 

...

 

A national stockpile of N95 protective masks, gowns, gloves and other supplies was already woefully inadequate after years of underfunding

 

 

 

 

 

long article. Read it yourself 

 

 

 

 

I think I might let you out of the bet just because I feel bad for you and I really and truly hope much of what you say is just the stubborn refusal to lose an argument rather than actually believing most of what you spew.

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3 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said:

Will you vote for him?

 

Edit: not to be a dick, truly.

 

Holy *****, Frenkle's back!!!

 

Where you been, you commie bastard?

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6 hours ago, westside said:

Or a leading suspect?  Hmmmmm


when I was searching Twitter yesterday for a Fauci statement, I ran into A LOT of wacky crap about Fauci and Gates and how this is all a plot between the two of them. People are nuts!

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