The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Serious question.

 

It is clear that everyone recognized there was a real problem in China by the end of January. However, here is a timeline. tell us:

1. At which point in January and February (your timeframe) should the administration and other leaders around the world have reasonably known the magnitude of what was coming worlwide?

2. What specific information are you basing your answer on?

 

Timeline

 

On December 31, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan

.

On January 7, the WHO reported that China had identified a new virus, named 2019-nCoV, and that it was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.

 

On Jan 11, China announced its first death from the virus released the genetic sequence. However, it was also accompanied with the information that they had only experienced 41 cases and that there was no obvious evidence of human-to-human spread yet. 

 

By Jan 17, China had reported only 2 deaths and only two cases had been identified outside of China

 

On Jan 20, First US case is reported

 

On January 23, The WHO reported that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.

 

On Jan 20, Trump forms coronavirus task force

 

On January 30, the WHO declared the virus a global emergency and reported the death toll in China at 170, with 7,711 cases.

 

On Jan 31, President Trump bans foreign nationals from entering the US if they were in China within the prior two weeks.

 

By Feb 3, new cases had been confirmed in at least 7 countries, including the US; however, there had been only 1 death reported outside of China. That was in the Phillipines and it was a man from Wuhan.

 

By Feb 6, only 30 people in Europe had been identified with the virus and all had ties to China. This is also the date of the first identified human to human transmission of the virus in Malasia.

 

On Feb 12, cases start to spike in South Korea

 

Through the end of Feb, there had been 88,000 confirmed cases - but only 8000 confirmed cases outside of China. There were 2977 deaths - but only 142 outside of China

 

Between Mar 1 - Mar 10 approx 35,000 new cases identified outside of China, and 1,319 deaths world-wide outside of China

 

On Mar 11, the WHO officiallly declares a pandemic

 

On Mar 11, President Trump bans all travel from 26 European countries for non-US citizens and non-green card holders

 

By Mar 11, There were 32,000 confirmed cases and 1,400 deaths, world-wide, outside of China and South Korea - with both China and Korea reporting stabilazation of the virus.

 

On Mar 13, Trump declares a US national emergency with 2,183 confirmed cases and 48 deaths

At what point in time did DeBlasio quit telling NYC residents to party like it was still the 80's?

1 minute ago, TPS said:

Oh, sure I understand the political nature of the source, but that doesn't mean it's incorrect.  Of course, I posted it because it fits what I was saying a month ago based on my observations of trump, and from someone (me) who has been both (mainly) critical and (sometimes) supportive. 

?

[GG]

17 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

Oh really?  People don't wear masks in the US?  They don't clean up after themselves in the US?  The US has never experienced a pandemic in its history?  

 

That must explain why we don't have some kind of centralized agency for disease control, and why we never created a pandemic response team.  Yes, you've nailed it!

 

Were you in NYC between March 13 and March 22 to witness this compliance with the recommended practice?

[Deranged Rhino]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

Oh, sure I understand the political nature of the source, but that doesn't mean it's incorrect. 

 

If you go by the track record of anonymous White House sources in this administration, the odds are HEAVY that it's entirely false. 

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Small correction... he banned non-US citizens and non-green card holders from flying in from those countries. We flew home from one of those countries on the 14th.
 

And you were quarantined, right?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[MILFHUNTER#518]

This is good news, it is a test that can tell you if you have been infected and recovered. It will allow alot of people to go back to work. I know I am curious to see if I have had it, my daughter, a co- worker and my wife's asst all had a flu-like illness in the past 4 months, all had the same symptoms, all tested negative for the flu. One of them even lost sense of smell, taste.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/fda-approves-first-serology-test-for-coronavirus/

[3rdnlng]

52 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

I gave a history lesson yesterday on how republics have a long track record of taking extraordinary measures during extraordinary times.  Naturally that fell on deaf ears here, cuz you know the gubment is bad.  

Who and where did you give this history lesson to during this stay at home time? Online?

[Capco]

15 minutes ago, Foxx said:

it goes to culture. equating East and West cultures in regard to personal measures is not apples to apples. Asian culture has long observed 'personal space' where as the 'western' world, not so much. additionally, the use of masks has been pretty prevalent for a long time in the 'East'.

 

I acknowledge this cultural difference in personal measures but that doesn't account for the differences in levels of testing and government responsiveness. 

 

Unless you're also referring to the American culture of government staying out of other people's business even if it's for those people's best interests.  In that case then we're just reaping what we've sown.

[3rdnlng]

51 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

Still waiting for an answer, Gary.....

 

 

Still waiting, Gary.

 

[meazza]

3 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

I acknowledge this cultural difference in personal measures but that doesn't account for the differences in levels of testing and government responsiveness. 

 

Unless you're also referring to the American culture of government staying out of other people's business even if it's for those people's best interests.  In that case then we're just reaping what we've sown.

 

Western societies are much more complacent.

 

[Capco]

6 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Who and where did you give this history lesson to during this stay at home time? Online?

 

Oh it was just some back and forth posting between DR and I.  Not a lesson to kiddos or anything.  

 

Have you had to do any homeschooling since this whole shebang? 

[Tiberius]

24 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

I wonder if people who spend their whole careers preparing for the worst case scenario are at all inclined to see the worst case scenario,  regardless of the data...

 

 

Wait... we have to trust the models that are inflating every number by multiple times because those models point to a catastrophe?... 

So are you taking this seriously? Are you washing your hands frequently and not gathering in groups? 

 

I have the feeling you are actually afraid to answer that! 

25 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

If you go by the track record of anonymous White House sources in this administration, the odds are HEAVY that it's entirely false. 

You saying that means they are probably batting closer to a thousand. You lie constantly 

[shoshin]

57 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Comparing actual numbers against the projection model is "spinning?"   Yeah, ok.

 

 

That guy's Tweets are showing that the flattening is working, yes? 

 

I would love for the model to be ***** but those curves were predicting the risks of inaction, which is why the administration sounded the warning sirens. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin

[Capco]

5 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Western societies are much more complacent.

 

Western complacency is why two former Trump administration health officials rang the alarm bell one week after the first reported case on Jan 20, and why their advice wasn't put into practice until February 29?  

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/act-now-to-prevent-an-american-epidemic-11580255335

 

No.  "Western societies are much more complacent" isn't gonna cut it.  This is a failure of leadership.  

 

“The US response will be studied for generations as a textbook example of a disastrous, failed effort,” Ron Klain, who spearheaded the fight against Ebola in 2014, told a Georgetown university panel recently. “What’s happened in Washington has been a fiasco of incredible proportions.”

 

The White House had all the information it needed by the end of January to act decisively. Instead, Trump repeatedly played down the severity of the threat, blaming China for what he called the “Chinese virus” and insisting falsely that his partial travel bans on China and Europe were all it would take to contain the crisis.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

[Kevbeau]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

I hear you there. Yesterday alone, Venuzula tried to take a cruise ship by force. Iran is making moves (or trying to, but stepping on their own *****), and of course there is still the whole possibility that this virus is nothing more than biological warfare: 

 

 

We're only getting about 40% of the picture in terms of what's really going on. Maybe even less. 

At a minimum this is going to lead to some sort of violent (over)reaction that will flare up the racism narrative (rightfully or wrongfully)

[whatdrought]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

So are you taking this seriously? Are you washing your hands frequently and not gathering in groups? 

 

I have the feeling you are actually afraid to answer that! 

What exactly are you getting at? 
 

I’m taking general precautions like most others are, but that doesn’t mean the data being pushed on us is any more true. 

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, whatdrought said:

What exactly are you getting at? 
 

I’m taking general precautions like most others are, but that doesn’t mean the data being pushed on us is any more true. 

So this is a very serious crisis, yet you still think it’s being overblown? 

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, Capco said:

Western complacency is why two former Trump administration health officials rang the alarm bell one week after the first reported case on Jan 20, and why their advice wasn't put into practice until February 29?  

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/act-now-to-prevent-an-american-epidemic-11580255335

 

No.  "Western societies are much more complacent" isn't gonna cut it.  This is a failure of leadership.  

 

“The US response will be studied for generations as a textbook example of a disastrous, failed effort,” Ron Klain, who spearheaded the fight against Ebola in 2014, told a Georgetown university panel recently. “What’s happened in Washington has been a fiasco of incredible proportions.”

 

The White House had all the information it needed by the end of January to act decisively. Instead, Trump repeatedly played down the severity of the threat, blaming China for what he called the “Chinese virus” and insisting falsely that his partial travel bans on China and Europe were all it would take to contain the crisis.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/28/trump-coronavirus-politics-us-health-disaster

 

Trump's attitude towards this was decidedly unhelpful in getting people to socially distance sooner. Even DeSantis said as much in closing Florida today. 

 

But in fairness to Trump, I don't think another politician in America would have done much better. He responded at about the same rate as everyone in America. The "lost month" people talk about is real, but it is a mistake most of America was making. If you showed me how hundreds of politicians were calling for dramatic action on Feb. 1, you could make a point that Trump had a huge failure of leadership but very few people in America were beating that drum. 

 

And if you want to blame some humans for our current predicament, the CCP seems like a good place to start. They didn't share the danger, the contagiousness, and didn't shut this down for travel outside China sooner. F-them. When the dust settles on this, a lot of eyes are turning to China. Right now, we actually need them to keep producing things for us. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin

[3rdnlng]

18 minutes ago, Capco said:

 

Oh it was just some back and forth posting between DR and I.  Not a lesson to kiddos or anything.  

 

Have you had to do any homeschooling since this whole shebang? 

The only schooling I've done is to a few people here. 

[Deranged Rhino]