The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Magox]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

Really?  And why is that?  If you actually dig into their rationale, it usually revolves around the fact that experts prefer people concentrate on hand-washing, social distancing, and self-isolation (like Bundgaard) or that many looked at the tiny size of the viral particle but failed to consider it would be spread on water droplets.

 

 

He says there’s evidence to suggest that the only effective face covering might be a visor, because the virus can spread through all mucous membranes, including via the eyes. He worries a cloth covering that only protects the nose and mouth provides a “false sense of security.”

“All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in June that masks are “possibly” to be recommended for people using public transport, but added that such coverings “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way,” in an interview with Dagens Industri.

Bundgaard says the simple rules that currently exist in Denmark -- hand-washing, social distancing, self-isolating if you’re sick -- are effective because they’re easy to remember. He worries that using face masks might lead people to be “sloppy” in following the other guidelines.

 

So on this front you were incorrect in your description to why they don't believe masks are that effective, which is something you failed to mention.  That you can catch the virus through droplets in your eyes and that mask usage is highly subjective in the sense that people often times wear them wrong and providing a false sense of security.

 

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"the virus is going to do what a virus does"  Sure, except that we are trying to dilute what the virus is doing.   Go look at data for S. Korea, China, Japan to see how it did over there.

 

 

South Korea and Japan all have unique circumstances that differentiate themselves from us.  First of all, the level of obedience and compliance from their citizenry is vastly different than ours.  Secondly they have top down governments and are more inclined to present draconian style measures.  Measures that are insanely stupid when you consider the risks from both sides of the ledger.  Third of all, the migration flows and how they are setup up with a homogeneous style government and their geography allows them different set of circumstances than the U.S    The amount of people visiting the United states from Europe is nearly 10 times as high as it is to Japan and the discrepancy is much worse with South Korea.   

 

And I'm not even going into the T-cell immunities but I believe there is even more of it in Asia than there is here.

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You're on here crowing about how you follow the data.  In science, in an emerging area, you can't just follow the data blindly.  Data is collected from studies, and studies have limitations and biases.  Many different studies and forms of data from different investigators must be collected before drawing conclusions and even then we must be careful to reconsider if needed.  Things look different now than they did at the beginning of March and will look different next year.  

 

You follow the data?  Were you one of those proclaiming this thing wasn't as bad as the flu back in early March, ignoring the problem of comparing an emerging virus to an endemic one?  Were you one of those in late June/early July proclaiming the outbreaks in Florida, Texas, Arizona were simply due to increased testing because deaths hadn't risen yet? Even though recent history shows deaths trails incidence of new cases by 1-2 weeks.  Because there were plenty of those people even if you were not among them.

 

 

I do, it's what I do for a living. It's a passion of mine.  The bolded and highlighted part is all gibberish and added nothing to this discussion.  I understand variables and how data is collected can affect outcomes.   

 

To the below point, was I one of the ones saying that it wasn't as bad the flu?  Nope, you got me confused for someone else.  

 

Was I one of the ones who were attributing the rise due to increased testing?   Nope, you got me confused for someone else.    Even though testing clearly is a reason for the confirmed positives but prevalency is something that I follow closely with the Percent Positive rate.  That was after all in a post on that very same page to the one responded to?  

 

Before you start spitting your venom, at least attribute it to the right person.

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You say you predicted this virus would have outbreaks again?  Big deal, the controlling factor is how bad will it be, and our efforts to control the spread can have some say over that.  

 

I also predicted the re-emergence in Ohio.  Why?  Our hospitalizations never bottomed out enough before reopening, too many people were convinced it would go away with the warm weather and the nutty right wing extremists and younger crowd were going to try and return life to normal and ignore protective measures.  Not difficult to predict.

 

 

 

That's not what I said, and again your ability to comprehend what you are reading is blinding you.  This was in the context of Shoshin and someone else stating that increased testing and contact tracing after the first initial wave was going to be the key to controlling the spread.  I said that it wouldn't work.  That it wouldn't work because the baseline of true infections was too high for that to be effective.  That there were way too many asymptomatics along with the confirmed positives to make this happen.  They argued that it could work, I argued that I don't operate off of could's but what would happen.   And what I said was correct.    

 

Nutty right wing extremists?    Now the truth comes out.  You're a partisan that is immune to facts and data.   People of color  and people in cities run by the left have the overwhelming % of those that have tested positive.  With that statement, now I know that you are not a serious person.

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And guess what?  There is no evidence "herd immunity" will extinguish the virus (recent international outbreaks point otherwise) or bring it under enough control until we get a vaccine.  

 

Anyone who truly cares about getting the economy going and returning a semblance of normal should realize masks, distancing, etc are critical to that until either endemic outbreaks remain small enough or a vaccine is proven and in the population.  People want to feel safe when they go out to spend money, unfortunately we have to rely on each other for that and in the USA we seem to be terrible at making small everyday changes for the good of others.

 

 

Sure there is.  There is plenty of evidence to suggest that.  Where have you been?  Clearly you are not in tune with what's happening.  Now is it conclusive evidence?  No, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that "herd immunity" would help slow the spread of the virus significantly.     

 

P.S  It's not about the antibodies.  

 

P.S.S  it's not a 70% Antibody threshold to achieve herd-like-immunity

 

In regards to returning back to normalcy. I'm ok with wearing masks.  Never said that I wasn't, in fact I have said over and over that I wear them when I am going to be near other people in public.   What I did say is that they are overstated and they are.  There is less than 1% doubt in my mind of that.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Magox

[Buffalo_Gal]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

Trump just down the road from me as we speak at FujiFilm Diosynth with a covid vaccine update.

 

https://abc11.com/politics/watch-live-president-trump-makes-1st-visit-to-nc-since-march/6336407/

I started late:

* Sending out 800K more point of care devices to the nursing home will be sent out in the next few weeks.
* Distributed 1.5M N95 masks (listed hospital masks, and shield numbers, too)
* Last week FEMA sent more PPE to nursing homes (named the numbers)
* We report our cases, much of the world does not [I read this morning Mexico released new numbers this morning... they were not good] and Trump is talking about more people at the border.
 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[GaryPinC]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

The Hasids are an old world insular sect of Judaism that's concentrated in Williamsburg (Brooklyn).  It's a very close knit community that still thinks it's 19th century Hungary.  Given their lifestyle and housing arrangements, this virus should have wiped them out.  Yet despite the high early cases, and the Nazi mayor's best efforts, they remain very much alive.

 

NY kids have flouted all social distancing rules ever since the bars started curbside orders.  No social distancing, no masks. 

 

It's been proven that the prevalence of the spread is in the home, and that's why the worst hit neighborhoods were the ones with the largest household sizes (not poverty).Therefore, if the virus was still lingering in NY, there would have been a massive resurgence starting in mid-June. 

 

Thanks for the explanation, I'll have to dig deeper into that one.  But again, acquired immunity is still a big unknown here and we're conducting so many infection tests not sure when we'll get good numbers on immunity.

 

The virus is not gone from NYC.  Rest assured of that.  It could be eradicated but it requires an Asian persistence which we don't put up with sacrificing that many of our rights in this country.  Also, one other big factor is your infection rate outdoors vs indoors.  Certainly experts don't think it's that different but I respectfully disagree with them.

[Magox]

41 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

You're certainly right about most everything except the laughable part.  You keep at the efforts to control it until you get control then really need to use contact tracing to keep it under control.  But even then people need to take the prevention steps.  The baseline can come down, isolation and these other measures help that.

 

You are confusing what I am saying and somehow translating it into this argument in your head.

 

I didn't say that masks, contact tracing nor additional tests shouldn't be conducted.  What I said is that when there is an outbreak, that they have a marginal effect.  I said that I wear masks, more out of courtesy to my fellow neighbors.  That contact tracing and additional testing in a targeted manner can help those that are most vulnerable.  But, the idea that they are some sort of golden ticket solution is naive.  I could list you tons of examples, which I have in previous posts.  I'm not going to keep rehashing them over and over.  They are there, if you want to find them, then go back and dig through the posts.

[GG]

15 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Thanks for the explanation, I'll have to dig deeper into that one.  But again, acquired immunity is still a big unknown here and we're conducting so many infection tests not sure when we'll get good numbers on immunity.

 

The virus is not gone from NYC.  Rest assured of that.  It could be eradicated but it requires an Asian persistence which we don't put up with sacrificing that many of our rights in this country.  Also, one other big factor is your infection rate outdoors vs indoors.  Certainly experts don't think it's that different but I respectfully disagree with them.

Nobody is arguing that the virus is fully gone. But the sane people want to bring the discussion back to the reality of the trade-off that occurs when you lock down a region.   The virus is less prevalent and is far less dangerous than what it was in March.  And you have a rising number of deaths and correlated ills by maintaining strict lockdowns. 

 

If the virus was exhibiting these exact features in March, there's no chance in hell you would have a lockdown.   That's the question that needs to be answered, what's the likelihood of the virus returning to March form in areas that were already hard hit?

 

The evidence so far is clear, there's been no resurgence in any areas that were previously hard hit.   

[Magox]

What I like about Alex is that he cuts through the mainstream panic porn with facts and data.  He's not afraid to go out on a limb and make predictions and far more often than not he is right and the mainstream analysis is wrong.

 

Dude has been a baller when it comes to COVID-19 analysis and data.  

 

 

 

 

[GaryPinC]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

Nobody is arguing that the virus is fully gone. But the sane people want to bring the discussion back to the reality of the trade-off that occurs when you lock down a region.   The virus is less prevalent and is far less dangerous than what it was in March.  And you have a rising number of deaths and correlated ills by maintaining strict lockdowns. 

 

If the virus was exhibiting these exact features in March, there's no chance in hell you would have a lockdown.   That's the question that needs to be answered, what's the likelihood of the virus returning to March form in areas that were already hard hit?

 

The evidence so far is clear, there's been no resurgence in any areas that were previously hard hit.   

Yep, I definitely agree with you about the evidence of no resurgence so far.    To answer the likelihood of the virus returning in March form, two things are important, was what NYC went through because lax preparation allowed undetected superspreading or was it an isoform of the virus that drove the R0 to become very high?

 

Not sure we have enough captured data to determine that.  You can argue either way on it, you can look at Michigan's journey (similar to NYC) vs Ohio or look at California and the south. 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[BillStime]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

MATT RIDLEY: 5 reasons why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over.

 

 

 

 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

MATT RIDLEY: 5 reasons why the coronavirus nightmare may soon be over.

 

 

 

 

 

Paywall

 

Can you post the bullet points of each of the five?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[B-Man]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Paywall

 

Can you post the bullet points of each of the five?

 

Sorry,

 

Straight to his site.........http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/why-the-coronavirus-nightmare-may-soon-be-over/

 

 

 

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

He says there’s evidence to suggest that the only effective face covering might be a visor, because the virus can spread through all mucous membranes, including via the eyes. He worries a cloth covering that only protects the nose and mouth provides a “false sense of security.”

“All these countries recommending face masks haven’t made their decisions based on new studies,” Bundgaard said in an interview in Copenhagen.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said in June that masks are “possibly” to be recommended for people using public transport, but added that such coverings “definitely won’t become an optimal solution in any way,” in an interview with Dagens Industri.

Bundgaard says the simple rules that currently exist in Denmark -- hand-washing, social distancing, self-isolating if you’re sick -- are effective because they’re easy to remember. He worries that using face masks might lead people to be “sloppy” in following the other guidelines.

 

So on this front you were incorrect in your description to why they don't believe masks are that effective, which is something you failed to mention.  That you can catch the virus through droplets in your eyes and that mask usage is highly subjective in the sense that people often times wear them wrong and providing a false sense of security.

 

No, you failed to understand what I was saying.  I was saying from this description it sounds like Bundgaard's  study focused on if masks self-protect.  That is one facet of mask wearing, a more important one is that it protects others.  If he finds a face shield is better self-protection it doesn't invalidate the utility of masks to protect others.   If his study finds masks don't significantly self-protect, we should be careful not to condemn masks unless he also shows it doesn't protect others.  But I absolutely mentioned he feels like people would eschew other self protection and over-rely on masks.

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

 

 

I do, it's what I do for a living. It's a passion of mine.  The bolded and highlighted part is all gibberish and added nothing to this discussion.  I understand variables and how data is collected can affect outcomes.   

 

That gibberish means us scientists go beyond variables and how data is collected.  It deals more with scope and shortcomings of the entire study.   I have tried to replicate data following exact methods in peer reviewed journals and come up short.   Sometimes it's a problem on my end and sometimes it's a problem with their study. 

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

To the below point, was I one of the ones saying that it wasn't as bad the flu?  Nope, you got me confused for someone else.  

 

Was I one of the ones who were attributing the rise due to increased testing?   Nope, you got me confused for someone else.    Even though testing clearly is a reason for the confirmed positives but prevalency is something that I follow closely with the Percent Positive rate.  That was after all in a post on that very same page to the one responded to?  

 

Before you start spitting your venom, at least attribute it to the right person.

 

I was asking because there are many who looked at the data and did just that.  Glad it wasn't you, but it happens all the time.

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

That's not what I said, and again your ability to comprehend what you are reading is blinding you.  This was in the context of Shoshin and someone else stating that increased testing and contact tracing after the first initial wave was going to be the key to controlling the spread.  I said that it wouldn't work.  That it wouldn't work because the baseline of true infections was too high for that to be effective.  That there were way too many asymptomatics along with the confirmed positives to make this happen.  They argued that it could work, I argued that I don't operate off of could's but what would happen.   And what I said was correct.    

 

You have a good point and so do they.  Certainly once your baseline went down it's fairly routine epidemiological methods Shoshin was talking about.  My apologies for misunderstanding your end of it.

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

Nutty right wing extremists?    Now the truth comes out.  You're a partisan that is immune to facts and data.   People of color  and people in cities run by the left have the overwhelming % of those that have tested positive.  With that statement, now I know that you are not a serious person.

 

Haha.  Nutty left wing extremists, nutty right wing extremists and me somewhere in the middle.  I voted Trump too.  

 

Left wing snowflakes need their safe spaces, right wing snowflakes need their conspiracy spaces.   Listen to 'em both howl and moan!

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

Sure there is.  There is plenty of evidence to suggest that.  Where have you been?  Clearly you are not in tune with what's happening.  Now is it conclusive evidence?  No, but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that "herd immunity" would help slow the spread of the virus significantly.     

 

No conclusive data evidence?

So sometimes you're all about the hard data when it suits you and sometimes you're not?    Certainly acquired immunity will help slow the spread.  The problem is we haven't figured out the nature of the acquired immunity, what percent of post-infected have it and for how long?  

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

In regards to returning back to normalcy. I'm ok with wearing masks.  Never said that I wasn't, in fact I have said over and over that I wear them when I am going to be near other people in public.   What I did say is that they are overstated and they are.  There is less than 1% doubt in my mind of that.

 

 

I don't know if you're familiar with R0.  If not, here's a link that does a decent job without getting lost in the weeds.   https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/rounds/how-scientists-quantify-intensity-of-an-outbreak-like-covid-19

 

There are a lot of factors to get our R0 under 1 and keep it there.  Certainly the draconian Asians are the most effective.  In the absence of that, masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. take on extra importance with a novel virus like Covid.

 

I don't argue with you that mask wearing is overstated at times.  But to avoid lockdowns we need to take their use and the other measures seriously.  Not wait until a family member or friend has their lungs damaged or even dies.  It rubs me the wrong way that people overblow  having to wear masks so much when it's so simple and helpful an act.  Sorry if you got caught in the blow-by.

[B-Man]

 

 

PROGRESS:

 

 Antiviral method against herpes paves the way for combatting incurable viral infections.

 

 

 

 

 

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

You are confusing what I am saying and somehow translating it into this argument in your head.

 

I didn't say that masks, contact tracing nor additional tests shouldn't be conducted.  What I said is that when there is an outbreak, that they have a marginal effect.  I said that I wear masks, more out of courtesy to my fellow neighbors.  That contact tracing and additional testing in a targeted manner can help those that are most vulnerable.  But, the idea that they are some sort of golden ticket solution is naive.  I could list you tons of examples, which I have in previous posts.  I'm not going to keep rehashing them over and over.  They are there, if you want to find them, then go back and dig through the posts.

I don't think so.  Yes, they are only part of the solution but an important part.   As I said I didn't disagree with what you are saying except for the laughable part.  For me, it's ok for people to latch onto them as a solution, infinitely better than pretending it's all a democrat/left wing conspiracy.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

....strip away Trump, TDS etc and address the pandemic with him completely removed from the equation and this hypothetically being a NON-election year.......now tell me where we are in this whole Covid-19 occurrence........normal flu-like?......Hong Kong or Ebola like that took time to digest and solve?......do we measure this against 649,000 annual cardio related deaths annually to gauge where Covid-19 fits in the nation's medical challenges?.....just curious....

[jburt2625]

43 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Dear Mr. PRESIDENT,

 

You're a moron.

 

 

Sincerely,

Normal people

[Magox]

@GaryPinC When there is a lack of conclusive Evidence, It’s not the evidence that suits me that I consider credible rather the preponderance of it.

 

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that with cross reactive T cell immunities from pas human coronaviruses (common colds) along with around 20%+ COVID-19 antibody infection rate of a particular area/city does create a herd-like immunity.  Reaches “burnout”.  I probably have at least 10 posts regarding burnout.   When cities/areas reach around this level of COVID-19 infections the virus tends to burnout.  Prevalency begins to trend lower until the virus essentially run out of steam. The R-naught factor which you referenced gets to a point where there simply aren’t enough hosts to spread the virus efficiently.

 

Why do you think places like Northern Italy, Madrid, Newark, NYC, Bridgeport, Boston, Stockholm,  Brussels, among other places just seemed to burnout and not have a hint of reemergence of high viral COVID-19 prevalency?   
 

The crossreactive T cell immunities is a seldom heard story that has a lot of oomph to it.  There have been recent papers written on it and the data that is available points to there being some there there.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Magox

[TH3]

35 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

....strip away Trump, TDS etc and address the pandemic with him completely removed from the equation and this hypothetically being a NON-election year.......now tell me where we are in this whole Covid-19 occurrence........normal flu-like?......Hong Kong or Ebola like that took time to digest and solve?......do we measure this against 649,000 annual cardio related deaths annually to gauge where Covid-19 fits in the nation's medical challenges?.....just curious....

When you say TDS ....are you referring the smaller and smaller pool of US citizens still deranged enough to believe in him?