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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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1 hour ago, Gary M said:

 

Positives are increasing, because they are testing younger people with milder symptoms, who were not being tested before, and don't need hospitalization.

 

All the while deaths are declining.

 

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see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

But that is not what we are seeing, we are seeing like  120 positives?

 

Agreed death rates are falling, but think we need to see 2 to 3 weeks out after these huge spikes in FLa etc

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4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. 

 

No you were likely to have 100% positive if they were older with symptoms.

 

One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

 No they are finding more people who are positive but asymptomatic, thus the decline in hospitalizations and deaths.

 

 

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1 hour ago, shoshin said:

This is the full list of countries whose nationals will be allowed to enter Europe:

 

Algeria

Australia

Canada

Georgia

Japan

Montenegro

Morocco

New Zealand

Rwanda

Serbia

South Korea

Thailand

Tunisia

Uruguay

 

*China allowed if it allows Europeans to enter China. 

Nice.

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1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

see, that is where the logic fails me...if before we were only testing people who had more severe symptoms, testing people with less sysmpotoms should yiels a lower positivity rate no? So lets say before we did 100 tests on really sick and older people, and 10 were positive, we have a 10% positivity rate. One would expect if we did 1000 tests and testing people with less symptoms and more do to contact tracing, same 1000 tests should yield something less than 100 positives. So increase in # of cases for sure, but decrease in positivity rate.

 

But that is not what we are seeing, we are seeing like  120 positives?

 

Agreed death rates are falling, but think we need to see 2 to 3 weeks out after these huge spikes in FLa etc

maybe the lack of logic in the testing results is due to what's hidden in the black box of PCR testing

 

Can anyone point to the standard for what triggers a positive covid test?

It is not a binary system under which you have it or you don't

the PCR test could show the existence of some coronavirus, but not enough to be considered a positive

partly the reason the test has a 30% error rate

 

how much is too much?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by spartacus
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7 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

 

Shoshin is wrong when he calls for PPP to be scrapped, but at least when he's here he does try to have a legit discussion.

 

Probably not the right thread for this comment, but if we drive away the handful of more liberal leaning posters like him that actually want to have a discussion, then we are left with an echo chamber for the most part with bad actors like Gary & Kemp throwing their bombs to disrupt that echo chamber.  It would be far better to either have Gary and his ilk grow up or leave than to run off Shoshin.  My 2 cents.


I agree.  There are some left leaning posters here that I really appreciate (I’m not really right leaning in my opinion).  We need to ignore the garbage posters and flatten the garbage curve. 

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5 minutes ago, meazza said:


I agree.  There are some left leaning posters here that I really appreciate (I’m not really right leaning in my opinion).  We need to ignore the garbage posters and flatten the garbage curve. 

It's tough and It's getting pretty scary. Positive tests for garbage posters have been spiking in the last month.

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5 hours ago, shoshin said:

This is the full list of countries whose nationals will be allowed to enter Europe:

 

Algeria

Australia

Canada

Georgia

Japan

Montenegro

Morocco

New Zealand

Rwanda

Serbia

South Korea

Thailand

Tunisia

Uruguay

 

*China allowed if it allows Europeans to enter China. 


That is interesting. We ordered a rug when we were in Morocco in March and got an email earlier this week that they were not allowed to start working on it until mid-July (the email said July 16th).

As I have said before of all the countries we entered into from January through March (includes 4 on that list) only Morocco had us fill out anything on contacting us, and wanting to know if we were near any COVID-19 people.  I posted the forms early in this thread.

 

Edited by Buffalo_Gal
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I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries.  It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't.   Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules.  Not probably until early next year.

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4 minutes ago, Magox said:

I don't see a problem with Europe banning the US from entering into their countries.  It makes total sense, it would be crazy if they didn't.   Truth be told, I'm not sure when they will relax those rules.  Not probably until early next year.

I agree. If it was smart for us to ban them, the reverse is also true. Nothing to see here.

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5 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Based on the above graphs, looks like ~2 weeks minimum and closer to 3 weeks. But something appears different so far and hopefully that continues to be the case. Arizona, Texas, and Florida are the test states. 

Georgia was the test state. They opened the first week of May.

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27 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Silly you! It takes until the first week in November to get the actual results back.

 

I agree with him. I overlooked Georgia for that. I think we just need to see if AZ, TX, and FL can weather the hospitalizations. If they can, I don't think deaths will spike particularly. We are headed to the lowest Tuesday in forever--by a lot. 

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Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

...so why the hell would you contradict MSM and muddy the waters with FACTS?........shame, shame............and we'll have our usual 649,000 annual deaths related to heart disease with no mention......or annual tally of 60,000+ flu deaths........YAWN......

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