The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[spartacus]

32 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Define "worked".

i guess it works great to generate revenue and billing for big pharma

not so much at reducing the impact of  covid-19

 

just look at the stats for what treatments were used in those that recovered

should be right next to the case counts

[shoshin]

14 minutes ago, spartacus said:

i guess it works great to generate revenue and billing for big pharma

not so much at reducing the impact of  covid-19

 

just look at the stats for what treatments were used in those that recovered

should be right next to the case counts

It can reduce the length of stays in the hospital but I agree: It fell short of the initial hype. 

[Magox]

4 hours ago, GG said:

 

Polluters must pollute.  It's what they do.

 

I've gone to a no tolerance stance of morons, ignore function.  .

4 hours ago, meazza said:

 

Set all the polluters on ignore.  We should all do it and the quality of content would great improve.

 

I'm on a tear!  

[spartacus]

but the cases, the cases . . .

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/houston-hospital-boss-shatters-medias-covid-fearmongering-only-about-3-or-4-more-people-icu

“What you’ve been hearing is a report that we are at 97% or so capacity...Exactly one year ago, it was at 95%. It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s - 90s. That’s how all of us operate hospitals...”

"The capacity that’s being reported is base capacity … we have the ability to go far higher than that in terms of the ICU beds....We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."

 

[Jon in Pasadena]

19 minutes ago, spartacus said:

We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."

 

Could someone point me at the hospitals that are showing higher immortality?  'Cause I wanna go to one of those...

[Magox]

10 hours ago, Magox said:

And look at this:

 

 

 

Very few of the Emergency room visits are COVID symptom related issues relative to in previous months.  The only age group really showing an increase are younger people.  
 

 

This Texas data perfectly corresponds with the Florida data which is that much of the increase in “COVID” hospitalizations are not COVID admissions.

 

 

Just put on your thinking cap for a second and look at that bottom chart.  You see that there is an increase confirmed COVID hospitalizations- the blue line - 

 

Look at the green line, those are the total hospitalizations.    Notice how the green line isn’t increasing?

 

This indicates that a statistically significant portion of the hospital admissions that are counted as COVID positive did not get admitted because of COVID but for other reasons mirroring the Florida data.

 

If these COVID hospitalizations were almost all due to COVID related reasons you would see the green line increase with a similar net gain as the blue line.   
 

In order to not believe this you’d have to believe that hospitalizations due to non COVID are dropping at the same amount if not more than COVID related increases over the exact same time period.   
 

And not just for Texas but for Florida as well.

 

 

Same logic applies for ICU and ventilator usage

 

 

 

And when you factor in that deaths haven’t increased, I think it’s pretty apparent that the mortality rate for the average CONFIRMED COVID infected person is dramatically dropping for a while host of reasons.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

And when you factor in that deaths haven’t increased, I think it’s pretty apparent that the mortality rate for the average CONFIRMED COVID infected person is dramatically dropping for a while host of reasons.

 

Best guess is that the Southeast is getting to herd immunity the old fashioned way, are doing a pretty good job of isolating the truly vulnerable and are implementing better practices in hospitals to treat the infected.   In any other world, this would be treated as pretty good news.

[meazza]

20 minutes ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

 

Could someone point me at the hospitals that are showing higher immortality?  'Cause I wanna go to one of those...

 

If you live forever, you may eventually get to see the Bills win a superbowl

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

 

 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Best guess is that the Southeast is getting to herd immunity the old fashioned way, are doing a pretty good job of isolating the truly vulnerable and are implementing better practices in hospitals to treat the infected.   In any other world, this would be treated as pretty good news.

 

 

THIS was the REALISTIC WAY that it was supposed to happen.

 

This is what I have been saying for months, protect the most vulnerable and front line workers, that therapeutics and methods of treating people would consistently improve and let's get this show on the road.   In other words, a broad acceptance that infections would go higher but since the vast majority of the population is at very little risk of the VIRUS, we could endure this when you factor in the other side of the ledger which is also a public health matter with economic implications.

 

This is the way it was supposed to go.  That's why I scoffed at those that suggested that we could just crush the curve and have effective contact tracing to limit it all while we open back up the economy and normalcy to it's populace.  I knew it wouldn't work I said as much and you know what else is going to happen?     Other states that have opened up will also begin to start seeing increases in infections.  

 

It never made sense to me for those that believed that we could flatten the curve and then open back up with few infections.  It never registered with me and my instincts on it are playing out. 

 

And it's ok.  Yes, it sucks the VIRUS got here from CHINA, it sucks.  But it is what it is and we have to play the hand we are dealt with. And thankfully, the mortality rates for the vast majority of the population is very low.  

[Chef Jim]

40 minutes ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

 

Could someone point me at the hospitals that are showing higher immortality?  'Cause I wanna go to one of those...

 

What are you ***** nuts!!  I'm ready to get away from this mess.  

[GG]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

THIS was the REALISTIC WAY that it was supposed to happen.

 

This is what I have been saying for months, protect the most vulnerable and front line workers, that therapeutics and methods of treating people would consistently improve and let's get this show on the road.   In other words, a broad acceptance that infections would go higher but since the vast majority of the population is at very little risk of the VIRUS, we could endure this when you factor in the other side of the ledger which is also a public health matter with economic implications.

 

This is the way it was supposed to go.  That's why I scoffed at those that suggested that we could just crush the curve and have effective contact tracing to limit it all while we open back up the economy and normalcy to it's populace.  I knew it wouldn't work I said as much and you know what else is going to happen?     Other states that have opened up will also begin to start seeing increases in infections.  

 

It never made sense to me for those that believed that we could flatten the curve and then open back up with few infections.  It never registered with me and my instincts on it are playing out. 

 

And it's ok.  Yes, it sucks the VIRUS got here from CHINA, it sucks.  But it is what it is and we have to play the hand we are dealt with. And thankfully, the mortality rates for the vast majority of the population is very low.  

 

Somehow, people forgot that a virus for which there's no cure or vaccine will continue to cycle through a population.

[plenzmd1]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

THIS was the REALISTIC WAY that it was supposed to happen.

 

This is what I have been saying for months, protect the most vulnerable and front line workers, that therapeutics and methods of treating people would consistently improve and let's get this show on the road.   In other words, a broad acceptance that infections would go higher but since the vast majority of the population is at very little risk of the VIRUS, we could endure this when you factor in the other side of the ledger which is also a public health matter with economic implications.

 

This is the way it was supposed to go.  That's why I scoffed at those that suggested that we could just crush the curve and have effective contact tracing to limit it all while we open back up the economy and normalcy to it's populace.  I knew it wouldn't work I said as much and you know what else is going to happen?     Other states that have opened up will also begin to start seeing increases in infections.  

 

It never made sense to me for those that believed that we could flatten the curve and then open back up with few infections.  It never registered with me and my instincts on it are playing out. 

 

And it's ok.  Yes, it sucks the VIRUS got here from CHINA, it sucks.  But it is what it is and we have to play the hand we are dealt with. And thankfully, the mortality rates for the vast majority of the population is very low.  

While I agree with most of this, I do think we need this to play out a few more weeks in terms of the death rate. I am really hoping it stays where we are today.  Cause then it truly is back to 90% normal. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

While I agree with most of this, I do think we need this to play out a few more weeks in terms of the death rate. I am really hoping it stays where we are today.  Cause then it truly is back to 90% normal. 

 

It probably won't.  I most likely will increase some from where it bottoms out.  My hopes are that it bottoms out lower than where I predicted which was around 500 deaths per day (7 day average).  My guess is that wherever it bottoms out, deaths will probably get up to as high as anywhere from 10-50% higher and then begin to head back down again to an even lower low.  

 

It's natural that infections will rise as society normalizes.  But the notion that we are going to go back to draconian style roll backs is not gonna happen.  And if it does, if you think Civil unrest is bad now, holy *****.   It's gonna get really ugly and it won't just be leftists but people from the right as well.  It won't fly.

6 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Somehow, people forgot that a virus for which there's no cure or vaccine will continue to cycle through a population.

 

People who don't realize this either didn't have realistic expectations of the VIRUS or are dishonest frauds.

 

It's only one or the other.

[GG]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

People who don't realize this either didn't have realistic expectations of the VIRUS or are dishonest frauds.

 

It's only one or the other.

 

Oh, that's a tough one

[Jon in Pasadena]

18 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

What are you ***** nuts!!  I'm ready to get away from this mess.  

Oh come on, Palm Springs isn't that bad...

?

Edited June 29, 2020 by Jon in Pasadena

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Oh, that's a tough one

 

Truth be told, I think it's that people didn't have realistic expectations more so than anything.  And I blame our elected leaders, public health officials and the media more than anything.

 

People thought once we "flattened the curve",  we could open up the economy do a little bit of contact tracing, people wear masks and violaaa - very few infections. 

 

This wasn't communicated properly.  The COVID health officials blind spot was always that they viewed COVID in a vacuum and that any public health officials tendency is to err on the side of caution.  ALWAYS.   

 

And I blame the elected officials for not being up front, which is that infections will rise and there will be more deaths but the cost of our overall public health and the economy also have to be considered and that the government will do everything they can to protect the most vulnerable.

 

And I blame the media for being in the business of not reporting news that is helpful to the public but in the business of getting clicks and drumming up hysteria.

 

It's just a failure all the way across of communicating and setting realistic expectations.

[Chef Jim]

9 minutes ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

Oh come on, Palm Springs isn't that bad...

?

 

Not but the rest of the planet is pretty ***** up. 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I've gone to a no tolerance stance of morons, ignore function.  .

 

 

That's putting a bandaid on an amputation. The posts get through because everyone engages the most troll-like poster by trying to out-troll them so you see the responses.

 

I've not found ignoring to bring much peace to the discussions.  

 

***

On a Covid note, even though it's a Monday, man is the data slow to be released today. Must have been a lot of drinking at the state DOHs this weekend. (Except Florida, they release their data like they are run like a Swiss watchmaker.)

Edited June 29, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

12 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

That's putting a bandaid on an amputation. The posts get through because everyone engages the most troll-like poster by trying to out-troll them so you see the responses.

 

I've not found ignoring to bring much peace to the discussions.  

 

***

On a Covid note, even though it's a Monday, man is the data slow to be released today. Must have been a lot of drinking at the state DOHs this weekend. (Except Florida, they release their data like they are run like a Swiss watchmaker.)

 

It's not full proof but it reduces the clutter.  

 

And the data has been released slowly so far today.