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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

Hedge

By Hedge
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

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Hello everyone, and I had the opportunity to visit Cassandra at Buffalo Children's today. As mentioned she is off the Ecmo machine and doing most of the work. It will take some time for her to heal. S

plenzmd1
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I have stayed away from this forum for a long time, and most know my politics...tonight was important for our country. Trump was up to it so far. Fantastic job.     

Deranged Rhino
Deranged Rhino

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RiotAct All Pro

RiotAct

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Poojer said:

 

Hee hee hee.....anal ?

 

...The research, published in the Annals of Internal "Medicine, ranked frisky situations based on how likely it is to catch coronavirus while in the act..."

says The POOjer ;)

 

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SoCal Deek Hall of Famer

SoCal Deek

Posted
Posted

Only one State registered triple digit deaths yesterday (Illinois) ...not even NY. Approximately half of the US had single digits deaths and of those, ten states had none at all. Remember of course that those figures are for entire States. In California for example, a state that is as long as half of the east coast, only Los Angeles county has any significant cases and deaths with over two thirds of the entire state’s totals. The rest of that huge state has virtually no cases or deaths from Covid 19. This story is over!

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
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5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Only one State registered triple digit deaths yesterday (Illinois) ...not even NY. Approximately half of the US had single digits deaths and of those, ten states had none at all. Remember of course that those figures are for entire States. In California for example, a state that is as long as half of the east coast, only Los Angeles county has any significant cases and deaths with over two thirds of the entire state’s totals. The rest of that huge state has virtually no cases or deaths from Covid 19. This story is over!

 

Fake virus

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SoCal Deek Hall of Famer

SoCal Deek

Posted
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Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

You are right. I am wrong. The virus is fake.

Geez buddy. Once again, I tried having a discussion grounded in facts, and you failed me once again. You can’t turn off your hate machine for even a few minutes on a Wednesday morning? Really? 

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GG Hall of Famer

GG

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1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Geez buddy. Once again, I tried having a discussion grounded in facts, and you failed me once again. You can’t turn off your hate machine for even a few minutes on a Wednesday morning? Really? 

 

He's programmed that way.

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

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8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Geez buddy. Once again, I tried having a discussion grounded in facts, and you failed me once again. You can’t turn off your hate machine for even a few minutes on a Wednesday morning? Really? 

 

Never used Nyquil - not sure of the instructions. Can you link the label for me and make your point a bit clearer?

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Reality Check Veteran

Reality Check

Posted
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11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Geez buddy. Once again, I tried having a discussion grounded in facts, and you failed me once again. You can’t turn off your hate machine for even a few minutes on a Wednesday morning? Really? 

If you are expecting anything other than mindless agitation from him and his ilk, try purchasing a punching bag instead. Ignore works great.

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SoCal Deek Hall of Famer

SoCal Deek

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1 minute ago, Reality Check said:

If you are expecting anything other than mindless agitation from him and his ilk, try purchasing a punching bag instead. Ignore works great.

Thanks....it’s early here on the west coast. Unfortunately this site has become an infested cesspool of these junior high posters. It’s become virtually impossible to have an adult conversation on any topic while the Left Wing temper tantrum rages on and on. 

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Reality Check Veteran

Reality Check

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks....it’s early here on the west coast. Unfortunately this site has become an infested cesspool of these junior high posters. It’s become virtually impossible to have an adult conversation on any topic while the Left Wing temper tantrum rages on and on. 

I agree. They seem to be purely agenda driven and don't want to problem solve at all. Have fun with it. The best part is how they will respond after November's election. The ***** they will say then will be platinum entertainment. I can't wait. 

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TPS All Pro

TPS

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On 6/1/2020 at 6:13 PM, GG said:

 

He doesn't count because he's a data scientist and not a health expert :)

 

He's my patron saint of this pandemic, and I'd like to rekindle the debate that @TPS and I started way back in March on who would ultimately be proven right - Leavitt/Ginn or Pueyo?

So, are you going to argue that NYC metro should not have gone into quarantine?

 

I'm sure you've read this one...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong?sref=U5wmynFo

Quote

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden’s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic....Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.

Then there is Brazil, where Bolsonaro (their version of Trump) declared it's "just a flu." How are they doing?

The UK started out with their controversial  "herd immunity" theory, then back-peddled after a week, when it was most contagious.  How are they doing?

 

And, you really need to re-read Pueyo more carefully. He uses a CFR similar to Levitt.  The issue he focused on, much like what most countries feared, was a dramatic spike in cases when the virus was most contagious, which would overwhelm the health system causing more deaths than necessary.  He also discusses the economic trade-off in one of his pieces.

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GG Hall of Famer

GG

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33 minutes ago, TPS said:

So, are you going to argue that NYC metro should not have gone into quarantine?

 

I'm sure you've read this one...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong?sref=U5wmynFo

Then there is Brazil, where Bolsonaro (their version of Trump) declared it's "just a flu." How are they doing?

The UK started out with their controversial  "herd immunity" theory, then back-peddled after a week, when it was most contagious.  How are they doing?

 

And, you really need to re-read Pueyo more carefully. He uses a CFR similar to Levitt.  The issue he focused on, much like what most countries feared, was a dramatic spike in cases when the virus was most contagious, which would overwhelm the health system causing more deaths than necessary.  He also discusses the economic trade-off in one of his pieces.


We can wait until retroactive data is finalized, but the trickle of more recent statistics point that the lock down had a minimal effect on NYC.  If policy experts were going to be honest, the lock down should have happened in early February.  This is supported by data that's coming in showing that the majority of the early NYC cases were already in full swing in February, and the mid March lock down was too little too late.    

 

The viral spread also supports the theory that after the initial spike and mortality of the super deadly strain that hit NYC, the virus weakened significantly and the spread slowed down.  This explains why the virus didn't grow past the immediate NYC commuter counties.  It's also evident in the maligned Hasid communities, which saw case incidents materially drop after the initial spike.  Note that there are no follow up news stories about the sects after mid-March when it became obvious they reached herd immunity within a month!   The real data that's been available in the last month conclusively shows that the lock downs need to end immediately.  

 

The Sweden is bunk because Bloomberg doesn't provide the right context.  While Sweden is near the top of the death rates, it's on par with France, and is much lower than the other Euro countries that got hit badly, and used the lockdowns to stop the spread.  Few were arguing that Sweden's approach was going to slow the spread or have a lower death rate by taking a more hands off approach.  The argument was that their end result would likely be the same as the other countries, but without sacrificing their economy.   Looks like it's coming to fruition.

 

Of course few people are talking about Belgium's numbers either, which are off the charts BAD, despite lockdowns & quarantines.  BTW, Denmark opened up schools in April and it had virtually no effect on the spread.  Instead everyone jumps on Brazil, which is an outlier in prevention & mitigation, but makes for a great scare story.  The pattern is clear, glom onto a scary temporary statistic, and when the story changes move onto something else.  Remember the pending disasters in Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Africa and Mexico?  What happened?  Still waiting for the Georgia & Colorado apocalypse.

 

 

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