The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[TH3]

26 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

Feb 9: The Coronavirus Task Force briefed governors from across the country at the NGA Meeting.

Feb 11: HHS expanded coordination with Janssen Research & Development on the creation of coronavirus vaccine

Feb 14: CDC announced their ongoing work with 5 labs to perform community-based influenza surveillance and study the spread of coronavirus.

Feb 18: HHS announced it has engaged Sanofi Pasteur in order to develop a coronavirus vaccine and treatments for coronavirus infections.

Feb 24: The Admin requested $2.5 billion from Congress to help combat the spread of the coronavirus.

Feb 25: HHS Sec Azar testified before the Senate HELP committee on the Admin’s coronavirus response efforts.

Feb 26: Pres Trump announced VP would lead coronavirus response.

Feb 29: FDA began to allow labs to develop & utilize coronavirus testing kits during the application & review process.

Feb 29: The Admin issued travel warnings for parts of South Korea & Italy.

 

 

 

 

 

Scoreboard bro....Euro countries same intel ....probably less...than the orange menace...Yesterday Germany plus France plus Italy plus Spain....less than 4000 new cases....US 28k...if you are hanging your hat on that ban....might wanna try something new

16 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

Thank god it miraculously disappeared in April. 

Hey....we might be losing 32-3 in the middle of the second quarter...but we almost ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and settled for a field goal....BUT DID YOU SEE THE HIGHLIGHTS?

[Koko78]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Isn't there a single left leaning poster who consistently posts on here that can actually make a good argument?  

 

DC Tom said it years ago, the righties on this board intellectually dominate the lefties.

 

Since I have come back, that is has become evidently clear.

 

Eh, to be fair, all they've got is "grab'em by the *****", "he pled guilty", and OMGOrangeManBad!!!!! The morons here are trying to make due with the limited opinions they're allowed to have.

 

Their DNC/MSM masters have failed to update their programming.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

First, they overestimate the deaths.  Then they underestimate the deaths.  The IMHE model I believe they're using fell outside the 95% confidence interval 70% of the time when projecting number of deaths in individual states.  That's a horrible model.  Why are they still using it when setting policy?

 

The IHME model overestimated then underestimated.

 

The CDC model, as you can see in that image, had the model deaths (red line) underestimated from the actuals (blue dots) to date. 

 

[B-Man]

18 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

 

Allegany County for years was rumored to have a family worth nearly a billion dollars due to the 19th Century oil boom near Wellsville. 

 

 

 

That's not me. ?

 

 

 

 

HMM: 

Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic. 

 

So is there something about meatpacking plants, or are there lots of clusters of infected but asymptomatic people out there?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

14 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

I have a client who played for the Bills. We were talking about the area.  He said he always liked to research the cities where he played and said he was surprised to find out that in it's hay day Buffalo had more millionaires per capita than any other city in America.  I was surprised to learn that too. 

A portion of Delaware Ave is "millionaire's row" .... back when a million dollars meant something. ?

 

[meazza]

Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

That's not me. ?

 

 

 

 

HMM: 

Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic. 

 

So is there something about meatpacking plants, or are there lots of clusters of infected but asymptomatic people out there?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The latter.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

This is what I was saying and as I was telling @shoshin I think it would be awfully naive to believe in these models considering they have been wrong every step of the way.  I mean, I won't make a clear proclamation on this because I do have some questions that need to be hashed out but my gut tells me that this won't be the case and not only do I believe it won't be the case but I believe it will be considerably off.    But again, I don't have a good grasp of what the total death count will be.  I wish I would have made a projection earlier on but if I had, I probably would have predicted about 100k Deaths by June 1st.  

 

If you are to extrapolate this chart it would indicate about 150k deaths by June 1st.   

 

This chart projects a sharp increase in deaths beginning around May 15th, which means that they believe that the actions that are now taking place in Georgia and other states are causing the increase.   That just doesn't make sense to me at all, the states that have loosened their restrictions are not going to create that sort of an increase, especially when you consider that New York/New Jersey/Michigan/Connecticut/Massachusetts are all beginning their down slide, the downslide should more than offset any sort of negligible increase if any.  

 

Again, I'm not going to stake a firm position on this and usually I'm not afraid to do that but as of right this moment, on the surface this doesn't make any sense at all to me.

 

Btw @Doc Brown are you a lefty or a moderate sort of swing voter?   

 

I agree with your projection here. I don't think that model will turn out to be right for May, but I would not be surprised if we level out for a long time this summer once we establish a baseline after the drop I'd anticipate in the 2nd or third week this month. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

 

This is what I was saying and as I was telling @shoshin I think it would be awfully naive to believe in these models considering they have been wrong every step of the way.  I mean, I won't make a clear proclamation on this because I do have some questions that need to be hashed out but my gut tells me that this won't be the case and not only do I believe it won't be the case but I believe it will be considerably off.    But again, I don't have a good grasp of what the total death count will be.  I wish I would have made a projection earlier on but if I had, I probably would have predicted about 100k Deaths by June 1st.  

 

If you are to extrapolate this chart it would indicate about 150k deaths by June 1st.   

 

This chart projects a sharp increase in deaths beginning around May 15th, which means that they believe that the actions that are now taking place in Georgia and other states are causing the increase.   That just doesn't make sense to me at all, the states that have loosened their restrictions are not going to create that sort of an increase, especially when you consider that New York/New Jersey/Michigan/Connecticut/Massachusetts are all beginning their down slide, the downslide should more than offset any sort of negligible increase if any.  

 

Again, I'm not going to stake a firm position on this and usually I'm not afraid to do that but as of right this moment, on the surface this doesn't make any sense at all to me.

 

Btw @Doc Brown are you a lefty or a moderate sort of swing voter?   

I vote Democrat but this shouldn't be a political issue as it should be data driven.  If I was a policy maker right now I think there's enough data out there that we should push for reopening asap and following Sweden's model to reach herd immunity asap before we do even more long term damage to our economy.  A vaccine (which is basically a shortcut to herd immunity) is too far down the road and that's assuming we can develop one.  If a similar amount of people are going to die, I'd rather see a spike in deaths immediately and get back to regular life than long term lockdowns where the same amount of people die at a slower rate. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Isn't there a single left leaning poster who consistently posts on here that can actually make a good argument?  

 

DC Tom said it years ago, the righties on this board intellectually dominate the lefties.

 

Since I have come back, that is has become evidently clear.

 

Not sure if he still considers himself a lefty (probably does, but in more of the classical liberal vein), but in 2016 & earlier DR was a lefty.

 

4 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

That last cop should be gone. 

 

 

 

Bloodshed won't be far behind. 

 

Hoping there is more to this story than what was on camera.  But that is an extremely bad look for the cops (especially the fat 1 in the Yanks cap), and could see where that second guy (at minimum) will be getting a large sum of money from a jury.

 

And could see at least 1 of the cops behind bars for a while.  (Again, we only have a snippet of the story, but it looks bad on 1st blush.  Hoping for the cop's (& our sake) that there was legit justification for their actions before the video started; because if there isn't he's (rightfully) screwed.

[meazza]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I vote Democrat but this shouldn't be a political issue as it should be data driven.  If I was a policy maker right now I think there's enough data out there that we should push for reopening asap and following Sweden's model to reach herd immunity asap before we do even more long term damage to our economy.  A vaccine (which is basically a shortcut to herd immunity) is too far down the road and that's assuming we can develop one.  If a similar amount of people are going to die, I'd rather see a spike in deaths immediately and get back to regular life than long term lockdowns where the same amount of people die at a slower rate. 

 

You're alt-right.

[SectionC3]

On 4/30/2020 at 3:48 PM, snafu said:

 

Okay, to carry on, I responded to you in an appropriate way.  There was no need for me to message you other than by the way I posted.

I’m not making an argument that needs to be supported by logic, I’m giving you my reason why I consider this a very brief and limited discourse between you and me. Whether I post it here or by a private message to you is irrelevant to me.  No logical extrapolation needs to be done.  You are my audience and I’m not concerned at all whether anyone else reads this post which is directed at you.  So in addition to consistently misusing the word hoax, in this context you also misuse the word logic.  

 

I’m through with this.  You can can carry on now.  Enjoy your day.

 

 

More fake logic.  You confuse "audience" with "sole intended recipient" (which, in this case, was a dubious proposition). 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

I agree with your projection here. I don't think that model will turn out to be right for May, but I would not be surprised if we level out for a long time this summer once we establish a baseline after the drop I'd anticipate in the 2nd or third week this month. 

 

My hopes and I think the hopes could end up being right is that we see a decline throughout summer despite the re-openings of economies.  Influenza is cyclical and I think there is a chance that this will be as well....Not to mention the hot and humid weather of the summer which should not be underestimated.  When you combine that with some of the therapeutics that I am almost certain that we will have available in the coming months, I think there is a solid chance that we will see declining numbers.   

 

But then again, I can't say for sure, it is after all a novel virus.  But, those are my hopes.

[B-Man]

 

 

SNITCHES GET…GLITCHES ?      Facebook post exposed 900 Missouri lockdown tipsters.

 

 

.

 

[SectionC3]

Just checking in.  It's May, and apparently the virus is still here.  

 

In other news, I just saw this greatest hits list.  Enjoy!

 

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/495839-aprils-dumbest-and-most-dangerous-coronavirus-declarations

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[RochesterRob]

19 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

That's not me. ?

 

 

 

 

HMM: 

Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic. 

 

So is there something about meatpacking plants, or are there lots of clusters of infected but asymptomatic people out there?

 

 

 

 

 

 

  I always liked the area there but you would never think there was big money there just driving around.  Probably just like many other wealthy families I would guess that the modern members most likely fled to the coasts to live.  Anyways, I regret not driving around more while I was in college but just driving around to look at communities is not what most 18 year college students think about.  Could always day trip in current times.  

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[shoshin]

45 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

That's not me. ?

 

 

HMM: 

Whopping 373 workers at meatpacking plant test positive for COVID-19 — and they were all asymptomatic. 

 

So is there something about meatpacking plants, or are there lots of clusters of infected but asymptomatic people out there?

 

 

The bigger news to me is that it's another data point on asymptomatic positives. Meatpacking plants are cold, damp, and humans work closely with lots of bio material. Seems like a spot where this thing would be happy. 

[spartacus]

37 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

My hopes and I think the hopes could end up being right is that we see a decline throughout summer despite the re-openings of economies.  Influenza is cyclical and I think there is a chance that this will be as well....Not to mention the hot and humid weather of the summer which should not be underestimated.  When you combine that with some of the therapeutics that I am almost certain that we will have available in the coming months, I think there is a solid chance that we will see declining numbers.   

 

But then again, I can't say for sure, it is after all a novel virus.  But, those are my hopes.

People have been brain washed into believing this is some never before seen alien virus

It is clearly a derivation of the "coronavirus" virus family -- as evidenced by its name

As such, it exhibits many of the same characteristics- such as a the seasonal nature of the beast, immunity once infected and others

Perhaps a detailed review of the coronavirus strain would provide more detailed guidance than the fearmongering being pushed in the media

 

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

The conjunction for those folks might be AND not OR. 

 

MA is one of the few states where case counts are still trending up.