The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[billsfan1959]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

How do you get there?  We lead the world in cases and the growth here is still exponential. We haven't even gotten started with how bad this is going to hurt and it's time to throw on the flight suit and Mission Accomplished banner? We call the curve below Hockey Stick Growth and is usually something good, like the price of Amazon stock. This is kinda like that, if there was free two day shipping that created dead Americans.



We have distinct advantages that very few other countries on earth have with respect to our natural geographic isolation, infrastructure and population density. Canada has many of those same advantages and their results are far better than ours so far. South Korea blew our response out of the water and they are massively disadvantaged in terms of proximity to the source and population density.

 

The numbers I cited are correct if you are looking at the data from a per capita perspective. Using total cases with such a disparity in populations sizes is completely misleading. Again, if we so badly mismanaged this and South Korea is such a shining example, why is our death rate, per confirmed cases, only 1/2 of a percent behind? And we haven't even conducted the same number of tests per capita - which would lower our figues even more.

[B-Man]

DJ with terminal cancer and coronavirus told doctors to 'save someone else'

https://www.foxnews.com/health/dj-battling-leukemia-dies-from-coronavirus-told-docs-save-someone-else

 

 

 

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

The numbers I cited are correct if you are looking at the data from a per capita perspective. Using total cases with such a disparity in populations sizes is completely misleading. Again, if we so badly mismanaged this and South Korea is such a shining example, why is our death rate, per confirmed cases, only 1/2 of a percent behind? And we haven't even conducted the same number of tests per capita - which would lower our figues even more.

0.5% is an extra 1,750,000 dead Americans - more than have ever died in all wars combined. I think a major reason we have less deaths right now is that we have more infrastructure - more hospitals. Additionally, the data says our numbers are getting worse. What you're seeing right now is the best it's ever going to be.

Edited April 1, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, B-Man said:

DJ with terminal cancer and coronavirus told doctors to 'save someone else'

https://www.foxnews.com/health/dj-battling-leukemia-dies-from-coronavirus-told-docs-save-someone-else

 

 

 

 

 

 

So sad passed away after telling doctors to save someone else. Real good person. RIP. Awful sad.

[B-Man]

Dr. Deborah Birx: Incomplete Chinese Data Misled Experts on Seriousness of Coronavirus

 

Dr. Deborah Birx on Tuesday said that medical experts failed to understand the seriousness of the coronavirus because of incomplete data coming out of China.

 

“I think the medical community interpreted the Chinese data as that this was serious but smaller than anyone expected,” she said. “Because I think probably we were missing a significant amount of the data.”

 

Birx spoke about the experts’ relationship with the data during a White House press briefing on Tuesday evening.

 

She acknowledged frankly that when she saw early data from China reporting only 50,000 cases of the virus among the 20 million people in Wuhan, China, and the 80 million in Hubei province, she felt that the threat was similar to that of SARS, which had 8,098 cases globally and 774 deaths.

 

The devastation hitting countries like Italy and Spain and South Korea gave the experts much more complete data, helping them draw models that were far more alarming.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

0.5% is an extra 1,750,000,000 dead Americans - more than have ever died in all wars combined. I think a major reason we have less deaths right now is that we have more infrastructure - more hospitals. Additionally, the data says our numbers are getting worse. What you're seeing right now is the best it's ever going to be.

 

Well, since we don't have over a billion people in this country, I don't think your prediction will come through. I'll assume you meant 1,750,000 people, in which case I would ask you to site any data in any country in thei world that suggests that many people are going to die in this country.

[TPS]

29 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Testing is important, no doubt. However, I'm not sure the level of testing, early on, that people in this thread have been saying should have been done, was logistically achievable. How do you suggest they could have produced the number of tests necessary to test a significant portion of this population early on?  Serious question.

 

Also, if we were so far behind the curve with our response, how is it we currently are only .5% behind South Korea in deaths per confirmed cases? And, if we had conducted the same number of tests, per capita, as South Korea, wouldn't our death rate be even closer to theirs?

As stated in that video, the Koreans immediately worked with private labs to expand. 

The CDC eschewed the German test that WHO recommended to create their own, they controlled testing early, and also had the well-known F-up with the test kit that set things back a week or two.. 

 

The testing early only has to be focused on where the cases are and then doing the containment, so it didn't require hundreds of 1000s early on, but it does require 1000s.  Cuomo was calling for the CDC to let the state labs test by March 8.  The FDA was also slow at providing the ok for private labs.   You may not agree, but this is why it was so important to have a high-level pandemic coordinator (the position that was "streamlined" by Bolton and subsumed under a broader agency) to over-rule the bureaucratic delays.  The lack of quickly rolling out testing will be seen as the failure of our response.  

 

As for the death rate, you've already posted something about "don't tell me it's early," but it is.  The number of tests becomes irrelevant to the death rate when we've reached the point where hospitals are overrun, because the only thing that matters is the ability to care for the numbers that are coming into the hospitals.  The measure to compare is the one used on the worldometer site, deaths per million of population. Right now, italy is at 206 and the US is at 12 (4100 deaths so far).  Italy's will surely go up some, but it is slowing. For the US, if we are able to limit the number of deaths to 100,000, then that number will be close to 300, and of course if deaths are closer to 200,000, then we're at 600 per 1 mil.So, yes, where we are in the process matters....

 

As for testing now, it becomes very important once we get past the pandemic phase and phasing back to normal--you do the same thing that should've been done at the start--test, isolate, contain.

 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

See police 1,200 in NY tested positive for Coronavirus. That's 15.6%. 

[TPS]

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Well, since we don't have over a billion people in this country, I don't think your prediction will come through. I'll assume you meant 1,750,000 people, in which case I would ask you to site any data in any country in thei world that suggests that many people are going to die in this country.

yup, extra zero. oops.

350M infected Americans - 0.5% dead.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

yup, extra zero. oops.

350M infected Americans - 0.5% dead.

 

Again, what data, anywhere in this world right now tells you every person in this country (and it is 330 million, not 350 million) is going to be infected.

 

Ridiculous.

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[TPS]

57 minutes ago, GG said:

 

That would only work in the early stages of the outbreak.  It certainly wouldn't work in NY now, nor would it have worked in NY, where as recently as early March officials were telling people to g on with their lives.

 

Exactly, and why people are criticizing that lack early testing.  As I stated in my post to 1959, while there are areas in the country where testing is important due to low outbreaks, for those in the midst of it, it will become relevant as we come out of it and transition to back to "normal" whatever that is...

Yes, I've been criticizing DeBlasio's lack of focus too.

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, TPS said:

As stated in that video, the Koreans immediately worked with private labs to expand. 

The CDC eschewed the German test that WHO recommended to create their own, they controlled testing early, and also had the well-known F-up with the test kit that set things back a week or two.. 

 

The testing early only has to be focused on where the cases are and then doing the containment, so it didn't require hundreds of 1000s early on, but it does require 1000s.  Cuomo was calling for the CDC to let the state labs test by March 8.  The FDA was also slow at providing the ok for private labs.   You may not agree, but this is why it was so important to have a high-level pandemic coordinator (the position that was "streamlined" by Bolton and subsumed under a broader agency) to over-rule the bureaucratic delays.  The lack of quickly rolling out testing will be seen as the failure of our response.  

 

As for the death rate, you've already posted something about "don't tell me it's early," but it is.  The number of tests becomes irrelevant to the death rate when we've reached the point where hospitals are overrun, because the only thing that matters is the ability to care for the numbers that are coming into the hospitals.  The measure to compare is the one used on the worldometer site, deaths per million of population. Right now, italy is at 206 and the US is at 12 (4100 deaths so far).  Italy's will surely go up some, but it is slowing. For the US, if we are able to limit the number of deaths to 100,000, then that number will be close to 300, and of course if deaths are closer to 200,000, then we're at 600 per 1 mil.So, yes, where we are in the process matters....

 

As for testing now, it becomes very important once we get past the pandemic phase and phasing back to normal--you do the same thing that should've been done at the start--test, isolate, contain.

 

 

 

The measure of the death rate can be done by confirmed cases, total cases, per 100,000, etc. Measure it however you want. The data I provided showed that the increase in the death rate, in any way you want to measure it, is more on par with South Korea and Germany than it is with other countries. There is every reason to believe we will be able to provide the ICU beds, ventilators, etc. to not have our hospitals overwhelmed as they have been elsewhere.

 

It remains to be seen.

 

I appreciate the civil conversation.

Edited April 1, 2020 by billsfan1959

[Deranged Rhino]

9 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Believe me, I understand that the media doesn't give a ***** about right vs left. They sell controversy and hype, but certain outlets pander to one side over the other while their sister stations owned by the same parent company feed the other side. I do take issue however, that the less factual among right wing outlets have a strong reputation for being extremely venomous at a personal level. Less factual left wing articles may play identity politics just as strongly, but they don't make actual enemies of fellow Americans and sow cultural divides the same way.

Here’s a test to see if you’re as aware as you like to claim. Its a simple either or choice: 

 

In your opinion, who interfered more in the 2016 election: the Russians (and their proxies) or the US Intelligence community and prior administration? 
 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Here’s a test to see if you’re as aware as you like to claim. Its a simple either or choice: 

 

In your opinion, who interfered more in the 2016 election: the Russians (and their proxies) or the US Intelligence community and prior administration? 
 

 

You're a "Deep State" guy? jesus christ.

Edited April 1, 2020 by BullBuchanan

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

I'm sure that everyone on this board is doing their part:

 

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/americans-drinking-crazy-amount-of-alcohol-during-coronavirus-lockdown/

 

[TPS]

5 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Maybe instead of just casting wild dispersions with empty statements you could actually do the work to prove those statements? 

I don't know about my "wild dispersions"... ?

And, I'm not sure what there is to prove by suggesting people could go back and read posts from a month ago to see who was taking it seriously and who wasn't?  All that says is people can read and figure out on their own.  I wonder why you are taking that personally....?

[Deranged Rhino]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You're a "Deep State" guy? jesus christ.

That’s not an answer. It’s an either or choice. Go.