B-Man Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON COVID-19 Michael Levitt is an “American-British-Israeli” chemist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013. He spends a lot of time in China and has followed the coronavirus epidemic from the beginning. The Jerusalem Post highlights Levitt’s optimistic view of the epidemic, in part because the contagion is waning in China: “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.” Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day. But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.” By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March. Levitt explains one of the reasons why the spread of the disease slows: The reason for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.” Levitt also concludes that most people are naturally immune to COVID-19: In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were. The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune. Let’s hope that proves to be true. The cruise ship experience seems to be powerful evidence that it is. . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, B-Man said: AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE ON COVID-19 Michael Levitt is an “American-British-Israeli” chemist who won the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 2013. He spends a lot of time in China and has followed the coronavirus epidemic from the beginning. The Jerusalem Post highlights Levitt’s optimistic view of the epidemic, in part because the contagion is waning in China: “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.” Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day. But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop,” Levitt said. “A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.” By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March. Levitt explains one of the reasons why the spread of the disease slows: The reason for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people,” Levitt said. “But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.” Levitt also concludes that most people are naturally immune to COVID-19: In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were. The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune. Let’s hope that proves to be true. The cruise ship experience seems to be powerful evidence that it is. . I believe the cruise ship offers the best medium to compare mortality rates as well. .85%. These people were stuck on the same ship for 3+ weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 I like it. Best news I've heard all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, ScotSHO said: I like it. Best news I've heard all day. Democracy Dies in Darkness World Alert Mar 18, 10:02 PM China reports no new local coronavirus infections for the first time since the outbreak began All 34 infections diagnosed on Wednesday were in people arriving into China from abroad, the National Health Commission said. Read more » 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked. Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 https://www.marvistavet.com/feline-infectious-peritonitis.pml WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FELINE ENTERIC CORONAVIRUS? Here are some basics about this virus: It is common wherever cats are housed in groups and it is readily transmitted between cats. Transmission is typically by contact with infected feces. This means that the litter box is the usual place where infection takes place. Coronavirus infection is unusual in cats that free-roam outdoors (no litter box) or who live in homes where there is only one cat. The virus enters the new host’s body via the nose and mouth. Coronavirus readily sticks to clothing and can be transported easily this way. Coronavirus also survives up to 2 weeks in cat litter dust. Electron Micrograph of a Coronavirus showing the characteristic halo-like structures for which it is named.(Photocredit: CDC Public Heath Image Library) An active infection lasts several weeks to a few months. Virus is shed in the infected cat’s stool during this period. If the cat is reinfected, virus sheds again for weeks to months. During this time, the cat may or may not seem at all ill. Some infected cats do not shed virus. Households with fewer than 5 cats eventually spontaneously clear of coronavirus. Households with more than 5 cats virtually never clear of coronavirus. (original graphic by marvistavet.com) Most household disinfectants readily kill coronavirus immediately. Room temperature kills coronavirus within 48 hours. Carpeting is protective to the virus and the virus is able to survive in carpeting for at least 7 weeks. Once a cat has been infected with the virus and recovered, the cat can be easily re-infected by continued exposure to infected feces. In this way, many catteries where there are always cats sharing litter boxes never rid themselves of this infection. The enteric coronavirus attacks intestinal cells and creates GI upset. As the long as the infection is confined to the GI tract, there will be no FIP. Cats can have coronavirus. But by cat to cat contact. I think by feces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, GG said: Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked. Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May? Yes, but it may take a little longer as we will not take the same approach as China (think military lockdowns). I have Barenaked Ladies tickets for July 7th at Artpark, and I fully expect to be there with my friends. I love you Coronabug, but don't go away mad, just go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, GG said: Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked. Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May? It's what i'm hoping. And doesn't mutate or change it self like the flu (different flu shots each year). Because RNA. Worried about the most. and family, friends and people don't get hurt right now with this. This virus is new. The number that is inconsistent to me Hubei, China has the most cases but rest part of China way down doesn't match. There is soo many people in China. Don't think they are totality out of the woods yet. They have to be careful tho. Hoping it is over in May. Witch would be good for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, GG said: Finally a scientifically plausible explanation why China infections peaked. Extrapolating to the US would get us mostly clear by May? Totally unscientific, but am expecting this to be done ramping up around April 1 & clearing to the point of being able to resume normalcy by around May 1. That article gives a reason to expect that could be plausible. Especially if there is any seasonality to how this progresses, it should be plausible. (Still won't visit my parents until there's way more to go on than just that though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 I'm guessing there is a high likelihood that it doesn't stop at just 2 members of Congress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 This is what I mean have to play it safe. Looks like they are doing it right now. Witch is really good. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-second-wave-intl-hnk/index.html On Tuesday, the city's government issued a red notice for all foreign countries, requiring anyone arriving from overseas to undergo a 14-day home quarantine. Of the 10 new cases reported that day, almost all had recently traveled in Europe or the United States. "In view of proliferation of the disease and continuous increase in the number of cases reported around the world, members of the public are strongly urged to avoid all non-essential travel outside Hong Kong," the city's Center for Health Protection said in a statement. "The CHP strongly urges the public to maintain at all times strict personal and environmental hygiene, which is key to personal protection against infection and prevention of the spread of the disease in the community. On a personal level, members of the public should wear a surgical mask when having respiratory symptoms, taking public transport or staying in crowded places. They should also perform hand hygiene frequently, especially before touching the mouth, nose or eyes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) Just an FYI.... Edited March 19, 2020 by Doc Brown 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Got to take care other people need help doctors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, ScotSHO said: Yes, but it may take a little longer as we will not take the same approach as China (think military lockdowns). I have Barenaked Ladies tickets for July 7th at Artpark, and I fully expect to be there with my friends. I love you Coronabug, but don't go away mad, just go away. The Barenaked Ladies is the big event you are all in on for this summer? My God.... Edited March 19, 2020 by 32ABBA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LikeIGiveADarn Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, 32ABBA said: The Barenaked Ladies is the big event you are all in on for this summer? My God.... BNL are triple platinum! Are you? Edited March 19, 2020 by LikeIGiveADarn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted March 19, 2020 Author Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said: BNL are triple platinum! Are you? Kidz Bop have sold 17 million units. BNL is music for weenies. PS. On second thought, a better comparison is The Wiggles... "They (The Wiggles) have earned several Platinum, Double Platinum and Multi-Platinum records, as well as sold 23 million DVDs and 7 million CDs, and have performed, on average, to one million people per year." BNL is Wiggles music for, um... "grown ups". Edited March 19, 2020 by 32ABBA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PetermansRedemption Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 3 hours ago, 32ABBA said: Kidz Bop have sold 17 million units. BNL is music for weenies. PS. On second thought, a better comparison is The Wiggles... "They (The Wiggles) have earned several Platinum, Double Platinum and Multi-Platinum records, as well as sold 23 million DVDs and 7 million CDs, and have performed, on average, to one million people per year." BNL is Wiggles music for, um... "grown ups". Imagine being the person who, while the world is falling apart, has their top priority as criticizing music. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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