Daniel Jeremiah 2020 mock draft 1.0

[C.Biscuit97]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If Jordan Love is a top 15 Quarterback then I think we should give up football.

I mean after his sophomore year, I could totally see it.  39 total tds, 6 ints, put up 300 against 2 ranked teams.  Can’t say I watched a ton of him but I get it if he has the physical tools.  Definitely regressed this year but I don’t know what the situation surrounding them was with guys leaving.  
 

But like with most qbs, it’s all about what situation he goes to.  If he has to play right away, that would probably be really bad.  If he can sit and learn from a veteran on a stable team, who knows?  But I can see why teams like him.  It is a qb thirsty league.

[Reed83HOF]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is very true. I do think this is a promising group of tackles though.

Lots of teams in the top can use OTs and they will get drafted quickly pushing talent down the board...

[GunnerBill]

46 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

He sounds a lot like our current LT in Greg Robinson, except Robinson can't run block and has no technique either.

 

So ironically, given the post you were replying to, Robinson came out that same draft as Matthews (2014). It was my first year trying to evaluate and grade and everyone and their dog had Greg Robinson as the best LT on the board and a top 5 pick. I never saw it. I thought he had such sloppy technique and constantly played off balance. He got away with it at the college level because he was huge and just overpowered people. I had Matthews #1 and Lewan #2 with Robinson as my 3rd tackle. I didn't expect him to quite be the epic bust he has been but I was never a big fan. Thomas is much more in the safe pick Jake Matthews territory. 

17 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Lots of teams in the top can use OTs and they will get drafted quickly pushing talent down the board...

 

Yea as I said above I think 4 going in the first half of the first round is very possible. 

[GunnerBill]

My initial take on the Quarterbacks (and it is an initial take my full analysis to come much later) is that there are only two first rounders - Burrow and Tua and both are top 10 / top 12 type talents (not sure exactly where they will stack on my board until I have done more on other players) and both will be gone by pick 5 at the latest. I can see the argument either way for stacking them 1 and 2 but I expect Burrow to be chosen at #1. Not sure every team would make that pick (some would go Tua) but pretty sure Cincy will. 

 

Then I think there is a jumble after that. Some people think Justin Herbert is a clear cut #3. I didn't love him last year I don't love him this year he is a day 2 pick to me and then he is in the muddle with Hurts, Eason, Love and Fromm. I expect teams to be all over the map on those 5. At this stage it wouldn't shock me totally to see any of them be the 3rd QB off the board. 

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

My initial take on the Quarterbacks (and it is an initial take my full analysis to come much later) is that there are only two first rounders - Burrow and Tua and both are top 10 / top 12 type talents (not sure exactly where they will stack on my board until I have done more on other players) and both will be gone by pick 5 at the latest. I can see the argument either way for stacking them 1 and 2 but I expect Burrow to be chosen at #1. Not sure every team would make that pick (some would go Tua) but pretty sure Cincy will. 

 

Then I think there is a jumble after that. Some people think Justin Herbert is a clear cut #3. I didn't love him last year I don't love him this year he is a day 2 pick to me and then he is in the muddle with Hurts, Eason, Love and Fromm. I expect teams to be all over the map on those 5. At this stage it wouldn't shock me totally to see any of them be the 3rd QB off the board. 

I may be wrong on Fromm but I am bullish that he stinks. He just doesn’t have the tools. A great deal of his success can be attributed to playing behind that OL with top end playmakers. He’s a backup at best IMO. 

[YoloinOhio]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

My initial take on the Quarterbacks (and it is an initial take my full analysis to come much later) is that there are only two first rounders - Burrow and Tua and both are top 10 / top 12 type talents (not sure exactly where they will stack on my board until I have done more on other players) and both will be gone by pick 5 at the latest. I can see the argument either way for stacking them 1 and 2 but I expect Burrow to be chosen at #1. Not sure every team would make that pick (some would go Tua) but pretty sure Cincy will. 

 

Then I think there is a jumble after that. Some people think Justin Herbert is a clear cut #3. I didn't love him last year I don't love him this year he is a day 2 pick to me and then he is in the muddle with Hurts, Eason, Love and Fromm. I expect teams to be all over the map on those 5. At this stage it wouldn't shock me totally to see any of them be the 3rd QB off the board. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals take Tua, if he’s healthy

[JustWinPlease]

Tee Higgins is a dream scenario, but I don't see him falling outside the top-20.

[hjnick]

22 hours ago, MJS said:

That's exactly the narrative that existed for DK Metcalf abd why he fell, and he's been killing it in the NFL.

Speed Kills.  Metcalf is FAST! 

 

That's why I want a burner WR in this draft (doesn't have to be the first one we take).

 

Wash's WR, McLaurin (sp?) was superfast also and he compiled good stats.

 

I want a receiver Josh Allen CAN'T overthrow...

Edited January 22, 2020 by hjnick

[JustWinPlease]

5 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I’m more of a Shenault fan.  I think he’s a much better fit.  He can do it all

A better fit, how so?

With an inaccurate QB, I would say the 6-4 WR with a massive wingspan is a much better fit than the smaller WR.

Plus Higgins has proven he is a stud on the biggest stage, against the best competition.

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Guessing that you didn’t see the 2013 draft then?

 

?

 

Seriously though, OTs always get overdrafted due to need. Otherwise how do guys like Caleb McGary end up 1st round picks?

And people complain about Cody Ford in the second......which i will never understand the teeth nashing

Cody may never end up being a gret ORT......but I would bet the house I no longer have that he ends up having a long productive career as a OG

[thebandit27]

42 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

And people complain about Cody Ford in the second......which i will never understand the teeth nashing

Cody may never end up being a gret ORT......but I would bet the house I no longer have that he ends up having a long productive career as a OG

I think the complaint with Ford is that the upside simply didn’t match the investment. The other names that you hear mentioned like AJ & DK offered much greater upside at that point.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I may be wrong on Fromm but I am bullish that he stinks. He just doesn’t have the tools. A great deal of his success can be attributed to playing behind that OL with top end playmakers. He’s a backup at best IMO. 

 

I am not a big fan either but I honestly haven't done enough work to have a really definitive view either way and I expect there will be some teams who like him. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I think the complaint with Ford is that the upside simply didn’t match the investment. The other names that you hear mentioned like AJ & DK offered much greater upside at that point.

 

Moreso positional value versus upside.  You can find a good right tackle/guard combo in the 5th round or free agency.  Trading up in Round 2 for that position was asinine.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Coach Tuesday

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Moreso positional value versus upside.  You can find a good right tackle/guard combo in the 5th round or free agency.  Trading up in Round 2 for that position was asinine.

 

 

Fans ate up that "we need a tackle" video of Beane sweating thru the second round last year.     It was actually the pretty ugly truth about drafting for need.    It happens.

 

[mannc]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

My initial take on the Quarterbacks (and it is an initial take my full analysis to come much later) is that there are only two first rounders - Burrow and Tua and both are top 10 / top 12 type talents (not sure exactly where they will stack on my board until I have done more on other players) and both will be gone by pick 5 at the latest. I can see the argument either way for stacking them 1 and 2 but I expect Burrow to be chosen at #1. Not sure every team would make that pick (some would go Tua) but pretty sure Cincy will. 

 

Then I think there is a jumble after that. Some people think Justin Herbert is a clear cut #3. I didn't love him last year I don't love him this year he is a day 2 pick to me and then he is in the muddle with Hurts, Eason, Love and Fromm. I expect teams to be all over the map on those 5. At this stage it wouldn't shock me totally to see any of them be the 3rd QB off the board. 

To me, Herbert is no worse than the third best QB this year and I'd probably take him before Tua.  That being said--and having seen every one of Herbert's college games--there is something about him that's a little bit off.  He had a very good career at Oregon, but with his tools (off the charts) and the talent around him, he should have been better.  I don't know what the problem was...if it's a mental thing or, as I suspect, that Oregon's pistol offense is just a bad fit for him.  To me, he's absolutely worth a first round pick based on his size, arm talent, mobility and brains (as opposed to football IQ), but I'm just not sure he's a top five guy.  I'll be shocked if he falls out of the first round, though.       

[mannc]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

And people complain about Cody Ford in the second......which i will never understand the teeth nashing

Cody may never end up being a gret ORT......but I would bet the house I no longer have that he ends up having a long productive career as a OG

Let me help you understand, John ...there were at least four guys available at our original second round slot (without trading up) who made huge impacts as rookie WRs--a position of desperate, crying need for the Bills.  Instead, they traded up for a guy who apparently can't play left tackle and can't play right tackle very well, either.  The disappointment is amplified when you also consider the fact that the Bills might have been able to make a Super Bowl run this year with even an average offense.  

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I think the complaint with Ford is that the upside simply didn’t match the investment. The other names that you hear mentioned like AJ & DK offered much greater upside at that point.

 

 

Those first two rounds gotta' be about upside/franchise impact.   

 

We are 25+ years into the unrestricted free agency system...........the rules on the field have been about the same for 10 years now............knowing that and watching teams still make such fundamental errors on draft day is perplexing.

 

After watching the whole Ford thing unfold I am concerned that less "needs" will actually lead to more need-based........and subsequently less effective.........drafting.

[Coach Tuesday]

48 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Those first two rounds gotta' be about upside/franchise impact.   

 

We are 25+ years into the unrestricted free agency system...........the rules on the field have been about the same for 10 years now............knowing that and watching teams still make such fundamental errors on draft day is perplexing.

 

After watching the whole Ford thing unfold I am concerned that less "needs" will actually lead to more need-based........and subsequently less effective.........drafting.

 

Beane's view, I believe, is that as long as you're willing to move around the draft board to get the guy you want at a "value," it's ok to draft for need.  That's probably correct, for the most part - but you've convinced me that Rounds 1-2 need to also be about premium positions that aren't available in free agency.  The fact that Ford was picked relative to where he *should* have gone doesn't mean it was a sound resource management decision.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

I think the complaint with Ford is that the upside simply didn’t match the investment. The other names that you hear mentioned like AJ & DK offered much greater upside at that point.

I agree with one and I liked AJ much, much better. DK landed in the perfect situation.  

1 hour ago, mannc said:

To me, Herbert is no worse than the third best QB this year and I'd probably take him before Tua.  That being said--and having seen every one of Herbert's college games--there is something about him that's a little bit off.  He had a very good career at Oregon, but with his tools (off the charts) and the talent around him, he should have been better.  I don't know what the problem was...if it's a mental thing or, as I suspect, that Oregon's pistol offense is just a bad fit for him.  To me, he's absolutely worth a first round pick based on his size, arm talent, mobility and brains (as opposed to football IQ), but I'm just not sure he's a top five guy.  I'll be shocked if he falls out of the first round, though.       

Yeah, I loved Herbert but there’s a bunch of talk that he’s a super passive guy. Sometimes I think that’s BS but I generally think your qb should be the leader of your franchise.  There also were very few games he seemed to take over.

[DCOrange]

5 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I’m in my 2nd week of watching highlights and games of the top 8 WR’s. Shenalt seems to stand out to me, he has a unique skill set for a WR of his size. Great hands, agility, vision and playmaking ability and he has a good head on his shoulders. When he refines his game I think he will be unstoppable, he will force other teams to double him and possibly more. I think after he kills it at the combine we will have no chance at him.

 

I think this is all probably true, but I just want our first WR of the draft to be more refined personally. He certainly has the tools to be a good and versatile WR, but I'm not really sure he's productive early on outside of manufactured touches (which, to be fair, would be great to get more of in our offense lol). I just think you can find what he can provide today pretty easily around the league. What he could potentially develop into is much harder to find but I haven't really seen much reason to assume he gets there.