Daniel Jeremiah 2020 mock draft 1.0

[DCOrange]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

My initial take on the Quarterbacks (and it is an initial take my full analysis to come much later) is that there are only two first rounders - Burrow and Tua and both are top 10 / top 12 type talents (not sure exactly where they will stack on my board until I have done more on other players) and both will be gone by pick 5 at the latest. I can see the argument either way for stacking them 1 and 2 but I expect Burrow to be chosen at #1. Not sure every team would make that pick (some would go Tua) but pretty sure Cincy will. 

 

Then I think there is a jumble after that. Some people think Justin Herbert is a clear cut #3. I didn't love him last year I don't love him this year he is a day 2 pick to me and then he is in the muddle with Hurts, Eason, Love and Fromm. I expect teams to be all over the map on those 5. At this stage it wouldn't shock me totally to see any of them be the 3rd QB off the board. 

 

Like you, just an initial take. I have my full scouting reports done on Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson, but that's all so far. I have Burrow tied with Lamar Jackson as my 2nd highest rated QB of the past 4 drafts (Mahomes being #1). Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson are all a long ways behind him; I have Herbert on the fringe of the first round (which would be the lowest grade for anyone that's actually been taken in the 1st round these past 4 years), Hurts as a 2nd-3rd round pick, and Patterson more like a 3rd or 4th (though I suspect I'm much higher on him than most are as it seems like a lot of people think he has zero hope whatsoever).

 

I still have to finish the rest, but I suspect that Love and Fromm will both be ahead of Herbert for me and Eason probably close to him.

[nemhoff]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

To me, Herbert is no worse than the third best QB this year and I'd probably take him before Tua.  That being said--and having seen every one of Herbert's college games--there is something about him that's a little bit off.  He had a very good career at Oregon, but with his tools (off the charts) and the talent around him, he should have been better.  I don't know what the problem was...if it's a mental thing or, as I suspect, that Oregon's pistol offense is just a bad fit for him.  To me, he's absolutely worth a first round pick based on his size, arm talent, mobility and brains (as opposed to football IQ), but I'm just not sure he's a top five guy.  I'll be shocked if he falls out of the first round, though.       

I too watched all his games and live in Oregon and I hold the belief that Marcus Orroyo messed Herbert up this last year.  He regressed from his JR year.  I think that with proper coaching/QB coaching he will be a good-very good starting NFL QB.

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Like you, just an initial take. I have my full scouting reports done on Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson, but that's all so far. I have Burrow tied with Lamar Jackson as my 2nd highest rated QB of the past 4 drafts (Mahomes being #1). Herbert, Hurts, and Patterson are all a long ways behind him; I have Herbert on the fringe of the first round (which would be the lowest grade for anyone that's actually been taken in the 1st round these past 4 years), Hurts as a 2nd-3rd round pick, and Patterson more like a 3rd or 4th (though I suspect I'm much higher on him than most are as it seems like a lot of people think he has zero hope whatsoever).

 

I still have to finish the rest, but I suspect that Love and Fromm will both be ahead of Herbert for me and Eason probably close to him.

Justin Herbert is going to be a controversial prospect this year.  Only takes one team to really like him, though.

[DCOrange]

Just now, mannc said:

Justin Herbert is going to be a controversial prospect this year.  Only takes one team to really like him, though.

Yep, for sure. I think that also just kinda happens in a class like this where there's so many relatively high-level QB prospects. People will beat other QBs down to raise the guy they like up.

 

I'll be astonished if Herbert slides out of the first round and pretty surprised if he slides out of the top 15. I expect he'll be the 3rd or 4th QB taken (think it's between him and Love). I just personally am not relatively high on him (still a 1st round grade, but just barely).

[nemhoff]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yep, for sure. I think that also just kinda happens in a class like this where there's so many relatively high-level QB prospects. People will beat other QBs down to raise the guy they like up.

 

I'll be astonished if Herbert slides out of the first round and pretty surprised if he slides out of the top 15. I expect he'll be the 3rd or 4th QB taken (think it's between him and Love). I just personally am not relatively high on him (still a 1st round grade, but just barely).

I would be shocked if he fell out of the first.  If he had gone last year he may have been a top 5 pick based on the hype

[C.Biscuit97]

40 minutes ago, nemhoff said:

I too watched all his games and live in Oregon and I hold the belief that Marcus Orroyo messed Herbert up this last year.  He regressed from his JR year.  I think that with proper coaching/QB coaching he will be a good-very good starting NFL QB.

I hate doing the whole school thing but has an Oregon qb ever been good in the nfl?

[nemhoff]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hate doing the whole school thing but has an Oregon qb ever been good in the nfl?

Well I went to Colorado, grew up in the Cuse, so I am a more recent UO fan.  But I think that Dan Fouts was a pretty good NFL QB.  Since him there is a lot of mediocrity, but Herbert is not a Chip Kelly QB, he played in a pro style offense and has a huge arm, size, good mobility.  I would say reading a defense and occasional accuracy issues are the biggest knock on him.  From everything I saw this year there are not leadership issues or vocal team leader issues.  He is a really good dude who loved his school and loves football.  He could compare to JA17 coming out of Wyoming.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, nemhoff said:

Well I went to Colorado, grew up in the Cuse, so I am a more recent UO fan.  But I think that Dan Fouts was a pretty good NFL QB.  Since him there is a lot of mediocrity, but Herbert is not a Chip Kelly QB, he played in a pro style offense and has a huge arm, size, good mobility.  I would say reading a defense and occasional accuracy issues are the biggest knock on him.  From everything I saw this year there are not leadership issues or vocal team leader issues.  He is a really good dude who loved his school and loves football.  He could compare to JA17 coming out of Wyoming.

Yeah, I actually saw a lot of the Allen comparisons too.  I think one of Allen’s best qualities is he seems to be a natural leader.  It sucks that it is a weakness to be a thoughtful, quiet guy like how Herbert is viewed but that’s how NfL meatheads think. 

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah, I actually saw a lot of the Allen comparisons too.  I think one of Allen’s best qualities is he seems to be a natural leader.  It sucks that it is a weakness to be a thoughtful, quiet guy like how Herbert is viewed but that’s how NfL meatheads think. 

If only he were more of a fiery leader like Baker Mayfield...

[nemhoff]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

If only he were more of a fiery leader like Baker Mayfield...

Ha!

 

It's at this point that I want someone smarter than me to post the GIF of him being tackled by campus police

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

Let me help you understand, John ...there were at least four guys available at our original second round slot (without trading up) who made huge impacts as rookie WRs--a position of desperate, crying need for the Bills.  Instead, they traded up for a guy who apparently can't play left tackle and can't play right tackle very well, either.  The disappointment is amplified when you also consider the fact that the Bills might have been able to make a Super Bowl run this year with even an average offense.  

That is a EXTREMELY short sighted view

If Cody Ford moves to OG and makes the pro bowl....he will be every bit worth that pick because our OL was HORRIBLE the year before......you cant biuld it all in one season.

 

As it was...they biult enough of it to go 10 and 6 and make the playoffs.

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

I think the complaint with Ford is that the upside simply didn’t match the investment. The other names that you hear mentioned like AJ & DK offered much greater upside at that point.

Much great immediate upside

 

If you tell me I am going to get a quality OL or a quality WR when I am trying rebiuld a team....I am going to say OL.   They are MUCH harder to find given the crappy OL play in the NFL as a whole.

 

Those players that you mention were better players at theire positions then Cody Ford was this year....but a draft is not about the first year of that player.....

[turftoe]

8 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

I’m in my 2nd week of watching highlights and games of the top 8 WR’s. Shenalt seems to stand out to me, he has a unique skill set for a WR of his size. Great hands, agility, vision and playmaking ability and he has a good head on his shoulders. When he refines his game I think he will be unstoppable, he will force other teams to double him and possibly more. I think after he kills it at the combine we will have no chance at him.

It's possible. This is a deep draft for WR so some teams may pass in round 1 thinking they can still get a quality WR on day 2.

[thebandit27]

59 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That is a EXTREMELY short sighted view

If Cody Ford moves to OG and makes the pro bowl....he will be every bit worth that pick because our OL was HORRIBLE the year before......you cant biuld it all in one season.

 

As it was...they biult enough of it to go 10 and 6 and make the playoffs.

Much great immediate upside

 

If you tell me I am going to get a quality OL or a quality WR when I am trying rebiuld a team....I am going to say OL.   They are MUCH harder to find given the crappy OL play in the NFL as a whole.

 

Those players that you mention were better players at theire positions then Cody Ford was this year....but a draft is not about the first year of that player.....

You would take a RT over a WR1?

 

I do not agree.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Beane's view, I believe, is that as long as you're willing to move around the draft board to get the guy you want at a "value," it's ok to draft for need.  That's probably correct, for the most part - but you've convinced me that Rounds 1-2 need to also be about premium positions that aren't available in free agency.  The fact that Ford was picked relative to where he *should* have gone doesn't mean it was a sound resource management decision.

 

 

The problem with moving around the board for need in any case is that the compulsion to address a need can contaminate the evaluation.......and frankly needs are less satisfying to fulfill than wants so it's human nature to be less excited about a "need" project.

 

At which point you may be trading up for position that you've inaccurately evaluated.    

 

And I think the psychology of managing the second round is something the Bills organization needs to look at.

 

Is it a coincidence that the Bills string together need picks that even at the time feel like "lazy" evaluations.......like Cyrus Kouandjio,  Reggie Ragland,  Zay Jones and Cody Ford so often in round 2?

 

It's like........."hey, we really nailed it with that Ed Oliver pick that we've been agonizing over for months.........we can loosen our tie and fill a need".

 

But in years when they have had no first round pick they end up with Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ronald Darby..............A HOF,  a DPOY candidate and a DROY candidate with 3 of 4 picks.    That's incredible efficiency.

 

I actually understand this phenomenon from a business perspective...........it's happened to me with acquisitions that you put a lot of effort into.    Often times the subsequent "smaller" opportunities created by a big win........like the dissolution of physical assets of a company obtained........can be mishandled due to what I see as the combined effect of the euphoria and/or relief of completing the top objective.   Simply put it clouds judgement. 

   

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

You would take a RT over a WR1?

 

I do not agree.

I dont think Ford is a RT...I think he is a OG and a good one.   I might be proven wrong and he stays at RT but I dont see it

 

And yes...I would take a pro bowl offensive linemen over a WR1.....This next draft is going to be a strong WR draft dont think Beane didnt know that......he has a plan and I support it.

 

He has given us every reason to do that

[KOKBILLS]

I certainly hope the entire NFL values Tee over Laviska right up until the Bills are on the clock at #22 overall...

 

That way the odds increase that the Bills can get Laviska...?

Edited January 23, 2020 by KOKBILLS

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem with moving around the board for need in any case is that the compulsion to address a need can contaminate the evaluation.......and frankly needs are less satisfying to fulfill than wants so it's human nature to be less excited about a "need" project.

 

At which point you may be trading up for position that you've inaccurately evaluated.    

 

And I think the psychology of managing the second round is something the Bills organization needs to look at.

 

Is it a coincidence that the Bills string together need picks that even at the time feel like "lazy" evaluations.......like Cyrus Kouandjio,  Reggie Ragland,  Zay Jones and Cody Ford so often in round 2?

 

It's like........."hey, we really nailed it with that Ed Oliver pick that we've been agonizing over for months.........we can loosen our tie and fill a need".

 

But in years when they have had no first round pick they end up with Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ronald Darby..............A HOF,  a DPOY candidate and a DROY candidate with 3 of 4 picks.    That's incredible efficiency.

 

I actually understand this phenomenon from a business perspective...........it's happened to me with acquisitions that you put a lot of effort into.    Often times the subsequent "smaller" opportunities created by a big win........like the dissolution of physical assets of a company obtained........can be mishandled due to what I see as the combined effect of the euphoria and/or relief of completing the top objective.   Simply put it clouds judgement. 

   

 

Similarly when they knew in 2013 that they had taken an almighty risk with their 1st rounder on EJ they were pretty efficient finding Kiko and Woods in the 2nd. 

[thebandit27]

5 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I dont think Ford is a RT...I think he is a OG and a good one.   I might be proven wrong and he stays at RT but I dont see it

 

And yes...I would take a pro bowl offensive linemen over a WR1.....This next draft is going to be a strong WR draft dont think Beane didnt know that......he has a plan and I support it.

 

He has given us every reason to do that

I also think Ford is an OG. And there’s no way I take a pro bowl OG over a WR1.

 

Just look at the NFL salary landscape to see what’s more valuable. WR1 types are getting $20M/year. 
 

As for trusting Beane, well, his work on the defense has been excellent. The offense has a long way to go.

[Protocal69]

On 1/21/2020 at 12:46 PM, Rico said:

If Jerry Jeudy drops to #15, I’d like to see a trade-up.

Wouldnt make it past the Jets  at 11

[Bill from NYC]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem with moving around the board for need in any case is that the compulsion to address a need can contaminate the evaluation.......and frankly needs are less satisfying to fulfill than wants so it's human nature to be less excited about a "need" project.

 

At which point you may be trading up for position that you've inaccurately evaluated.    

 

And I think the psychology of managing the second round is something the Bills organization needs to look at.

 

Is it a coincidence that the Bills string together need picks that even at the time feel like "lazy" evaluations.......like Cyrus Kouandjio,  Reggie Ragland,  Zay Jones and Cody Ford so often in round 2?

 

It's like........."hey, we really nailed it with that Ed Oliver pick that we've been agonizing over for months.........we can loosen our tie and fill a need".

 

But in years when they have had no first round pick they end up with Thurman Thomas, Sam Cowart,  Roscoe Parrish and Ronald Darby..............A HOF,  a DPOY candidate and a DROY candidate with 3 of 4 picks.    That's incredible efficiency.

 

I actually understand this phenomenon from a business perspective...........it's happened to me with acquisitions that you put a lot of effort into.    Often times the subsequent "smaller" opportunities created by a big win........like the dissolution of physical assets of a company obtained........can be mishandled due to what I see as the combined effect of the euphoria and/or relief of completing the top objective.   Simply put it clouds judgement. 

   

Amazing post!!! Seriously.

 

To this day I cannot understand the selection of Kouandjio. He was a good kid but he was the 4th (perhaps even 5th) best player on that OL and I posted it on this board. Not only that, he was seriously injured.

For me not to want to draft a LT AND a player from Alabama is monumental, no?  

 

I do hope that he recovered from his problem. He was a really good kid in Tuscaloosa. No problems whatsoever.