Yes we need help but why 1st Round WR's scare me

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I agree that I think WR is a top need. I trust Beane to get us the right guy at the right pick. 
I also agree with finding another guy later rounds as a project. Maybe a slot guy to take over for Beasley in a year or two. 
 

So you aren’t clamoring for oline picks, does that mean you think they are set? 

It all depends on value - Beane has said this countless times. Beane's process is:

 

1.) Fill needs in FA so that

2.) you go BPA in the draft

3.) very aggressive in getting his players once he identifies them

4.) is patient 

5.) will not overdraft to fill a need - above all this is the most important characteristic he has

6.) appears to be unwilling to trade top picks in future years, but is very willing to trade picks in the current draft

7.) groups players in positions based on tiers and rankings within a tier are based on talent obviously but also:

a.) Lots and lots of Athletic talent - superb athletes

b.) Super high ceilings

c.) Good football smarts - need to be able to critique their own game footage & do well on the whiteboard

d.) love the game and would play for free

e.) great teammate

 

This draft has a couple top blue chip talents in OL & Edge and lots of talent in WR. What I very well expect to happen is that the FA market for WRs will be depressed, with the exception of a team that feels they are an Amari Cooper away from contending. You may even see a WR needy team, who feels like they are a WR away, in the draft move up to grab Lamb or Jeudy. The top OL, Edge, LB and CBs, S will most likely be off the board before we pick - those positions will be overvalued by the teams picking ahead of us since the gap between the tiers are fairly significant. The good news is, is that, this can and will push some of the tier 1 WRs down the board, as of now I would say the top 5-ish are Tier 1 talents. 

 

Let's go a little further and start to look around pick#22: 

 

1.) Once we get right around our pick, I am expecting to see some Tier 2 talent getting pushed up; from here and through the end of the first, there will be a battle for positioning on the Tier 2 guys from edge, OL, CB & WR.

 

2.) If I had to take a guess right now, the way OL class is shaping up, it will not be BPA at pick 22 - good value in the 30s-40s for RTs & Tier 2 guys. Also, OL take 2-3 years to develop & Beane wanting to surround Josh with talent and still trying to work on the OL, will not overdraft a OL or want to spend time waiting for development. 

 

3.) Edge will be gone and again you are looking 1-2 players around the mid 20s-40s, these are tier 2 guys. 

 

4.) CB & the bottom half of the Tier 1 WRs will likely be there, but there will be competition from the Raiders & Eagles, in addition to the teams who are trying to get a WR/CB they covet is there.

 

If I look at WR, we have: Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Shenault & Higgins. Lamb & Jeudy will be long gone before we pick; however, if Lamb or Jeudy get close to pick 9, I really would expect Beane to pull the trigger like he did with Edmunds - the talent is too good to pass up - could be competition from the Raiders, but that would push Ruggs down. I would reasonably say that puts us in the Shenault & Higgins range. 

 

Higgins seems to be injured & dinged up a bit, and has occasional drops, I am starting to get the feeling that Higgins would not the target for us - the best ability is availability and we need someone with a great catch radius and has very reliable  hands for a QB with a cannon for an arm. 

 

From what I was reading Shenault has been schemed open in his offense - I am not sure if this is because of poor QB play or inability to create separation against the DBs. If this is the case, the question then becomes Shenault vs Jefferson & the other Tier 2 guys. I don't see us trading back, we need quality impact players today and not roster filling talent. I see us trading up for a guy like Ruggs who has the potential to slide into the 10-15 range or drafting, gulp, a CB if we stand pat since that may be BPA in the correct tier grouping. We would then make a move to get near the top of RD2 to grab a Jefferson. This is just where I am as of today.....

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

No. It means they are miles ahead of the rancid OLs that we were forced to suffer through for 2 decades or so. My rants were repetitive but true. I can type a list of 30 or so blockers we had that were just awful. Remember when McNally was going to fix it? Please.

 

That said, I think that teams should always try to find talented blockers. Now we have a young QB with a monster arm, one of the strongest in the league. He needs more/better targets.

 

Jmo.

 

The targets have to have soft hands catch Josh's rockets and be able to adjust to his not always perfect passes. Beane was very very clear about getting Josh more weapons and this is not a deep or great draft for OL where we pick. 

[PIZ]

I hope they CORRECTLY identify 2 STUD WRs and draft them with their first 2 picks. Can you imagine Josh Allen with 2 stud, rookie WRs, in addtion to John Brown and Cole Beasley? Besides Brown and Beasley, there are no starting caliber WRs on this roster. 

[ndirish1978]

Say it with me BPA

[BmarvB]

Beane is a smart guy. I don't see him going high for a WR. He's more likely to go pass rusher first then find a gem in the 2nd or 3rd round at WR

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

19 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Say it with me BPA

 

[Chicken Boo]

Put me on the record for John Ross.  He's a great weapon, he just needs to stay healthy.  He was going good in the beginning of the season until he and Dalton suffered injuries.  The talent is there and coach Taylor seems to understand the importance of getting him the ball.  

 

Barring injuries, the Bengals will be in good shape with Burrow at QB.  The skill positions are set. (Green, Ross and Mixon)

 

As for 1st round receivers, that all depends on how the board looks at #22.  Every year, there's talent that should have gone in the top 15 that fall to the bottom or out of the 1st round completely.  Unfortunately, the Bills are picking higher than we're used to.  Can you risk waiting to get your guy near the end of the 2nd round?

 

I would think GMs have learned their lesson after the D.K. debacle, but maybe not.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Chicken Boo

[atlbillsfan1975]

@Reed83HOF I agree with your points. I am not saying oline needs to be the pick. 
I will not be surprised to see WR, Edge/OLB, or CB Picked in the first. 

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I'm a big fan of his.

 

 

 

Robbie is one of my favorite players in the league.  He's so fluid and natural at the position.  He makes it look easy. 

 

The Jets would be fools to let him get away.  He and Darnold were clicking at the end of the season.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Robbie is one of my favorite players in the league.  He's so fluid and natural at the position.  He makes it look easy. 

 

The Jets would be fools to let him get away.  He and Darnold were clicking at the end of the season.

Trying to steal him away should be job #1.

 

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

@Reed83HOF I agree with your points. I am not saying oline needs to be the pick. 
I will not be surprised to see WR, Edge/OLB, or CB Picked in the first. 

We will have to see how the boards and evaluations start to shape up, but as of now Edge/OLB are not a RD1 selection. You have to remember the OLB position is simply a 2 down player going forward, LorAx stayed on the field in pass rush situations because he was better at it than Lawson/Murphy. We will go more traditional DE/Edge in the future IMO. 

Edge value around where we pick in is RD1 is Yetur Gross-Matos - I'm iffy on him. 

 

Albright is thinking Reagor/Ruggs will go to DEN  at 15

[Chicken Boo]

13 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Trying to steal him away should be job #1.

 

 

My only gripe is that having he and Brown seems redundant.  If Allen were a more precise passer, where timing and ball placement were paramount, then I could see it, but I really think a bigger target plays more to Allen's strengths at this point in his career.  Like Eli having Plaxico to lean on.

[RochesterRob]

42 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

It all depends on value - Beane has said this countless times. Beane's process is:

 

1.) Fill needs in FA so that

2.) you go BPA in the draft

3.) very aggressive in getting his players once he identifies them

4.) is patient 

5.) will not overdraft to fill a need - above all this is the most important characteristic he has

6.) appears to be unwilling to trade top picks in future years, but is very willing to trade picks in the current draft

7.) groups players in positions based on tiers and rankings within a tier are based on talent obviously but also:

a.) Lots and lots of Athletic talent - superb athletes

b.) Super high ceilings

c.) Good football smarts - need to be able to critique their own game footage & do well on the whiteboard

d.) love the game and would play for free

e.) great teammate

 

This draft has a couple top blue chip talents in OL & Edge and lots of talent in WR. What I very well expect to happen is that the FA market for WRs will be depressed, with the exception of a team that feels they are an Amari Cooper away from contending. You may even see a WR needy team, who feels like they are a WR away, in the draft move up to grab Lamb or Jeudy. The top OL, Edge, LB and CBs, S will most likely be off the board before we pick - those positions will be overvalued by the teams picking ahead of us since the gap between the tiers are fairly significant. The good news is, is that, this can and will push some of the tier 1 WRs down the board, as of now I would say the top 5-ish are Tier 1 talents. 

 

Let's go a little further and start to look around pick#22: 

 

1.) Once we get right around our pick, I am expecting to see some Tier 2 talent getting pushed up; from here and through the end of the first, there will be a battle for positioning on the Tier 2 guys from edge, OL, CB & WR.

 

2.) If I had to take a guess right now, the way OL class is shaping up, it will not be BPA at pick 22 - good value in the 30s-40s for RTs & Tier 2 guys. Also, OL take 2-3 years to develop & Beane wanting to surround Josh with talent and still trying to work on the OL, will not overdraft a OL or want to spend time waiting for development. 

 

3.) Edge will be gone and again you are looking 1-2 players around the mid 20s-40s, these are tier 2 guys. 

 

4.) CB & the bottom half of the Tier 1 WRs will likely be there, but there will be competition from the Raiders & Eagles, in addition to the teams who are trying to get a WR/CB they covet is there.

 

If I look at WR, we have: Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs, Shenault & Higgins. Lamb & Jeudy will be long gone before we pick; however, if Lamb or Jeudy get close to pick 9, I really would expect Beane to pull the trigger like he did with Edmunds - the talent is too good to pass up - could be competition from the Raiders, but that would push Ruggs down. I would reasonably say that puts us in the Shenault & Higgins range. 

 

Higgins seems to be injured & dinged up a bit, and has occasional drops, I am starting to get the feeling that Higgins would not the target for us - the best ability is availability and we need someone with a great catch radius and has very reliable  hands for a QB with a cannon for an arm. 

 

From what I was reading Shenault has been schemed open in his offense - I am not sure if this is because of poor QB play or inability to create separation against the DBs. If this is the case, the question then becomes Shenault vs Jefferson & the other Tier 2 guys. I don't see us trading back, we need quality impact players today and not roster filling talent. I see us trading up for a guy like Ruggs who has the potential to slide into the 10-15 range or drafting, gulp, a CB if we stand pat since that may be BPA in the correct tier grouping. We would then make a move to get near the top of RD2 to grab a Jefferson. This is just where I am as of today.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

The targets have to have soft hands catch Josh's rockets and be able to adjust to his not always perfect passes. Beane was very very clear about getting Josh more weapons and this is not a deep or great draft for OL where we pick. 

  Re-affirms my notion that the Bills will pick a CB as it will have the most value by a considerable amount at 22.  There is a lot to happen between now and April but I don't see a guy that the Bills would use one of their extra picks to go up to 18-19 to get.  Just the way I see it.

[atlbillsfan1975]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

We will have to see how the boards and evaluations start to shape up, but as of now Edge/OLB are not a RD1 selection. You have to remember the OLB position is simply a 2 down player going forward, LorAx stayed on the field in pass rush situations because he was better at it than Lawson/Murphy. We will go more traditional DE/Edge in the future IMO. 

Edge value around where we pick in is RD1 is Yetur Gross-Matos - I'm iffy on him. 

 

Albright is thinking Reagor/Ruggs will go to DEN  at 15

I don’t believe in taking LB or RB in the first unless it is a priority need and the talent available is a generational player. That why I phrased as OLB/Edge. Basically a player who can play three downs and get to the QB. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

My only gripe is that having he and Brown seems redundant.  If Allen were a more precise passer, where timing and ball placement were paramount, then I could see it, but I really think a bigger target plays more to Allen's strengths at this point in his career.  Like Eli having Plaxico to lean on.

 

Yeah, there's that I suppose.

 

[Reed83HOF]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Re-affirms my notion that the Bills will pick a CB as it will have the most value by a considerable amount at 22.  There is a lot to happen between now and April but I don't see a guy that the Bills would use one of their extra picks to go up to 18-19 to get.  Just the way I see it.

I don't see us sitting at 22 and I don't see us trading back, Beane won't trade a pick next year, but would trade this year

 

Pick 22 (780) + Pick 54 (360) = 1140

Indy Pick 13 = 1150

Reasonable

 

Our 1st 3 picks could get us to 10 with CLE

Not reasonable

[RochesterRob]

3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I don't see us sitting at 22 and I don't see us trading back, Beane won't trade a pick next year, but would trade this year

 

Pick 22 (780) + Pick 54 (360) = 1140

Indy Pick 13 = 1150

Reasonable

 

Our 1st 3 picks could get us to 10 with CLE

Not reasonable

  I don't see our roster that set to package a few high picks to go up 10 or more spots.  If all goes well this coming season then for 2021 I could see a big trade up.

Edited January 21, 2020 by RochesterRob

[RyanC883]

5 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Personally I’d prefer to see them go pass rusher in round #1 as they are harder to find in free agency.  Trouble is not certain there will be any good pass rushers left by #22 either.   Even if you draft what turns out to be a very good WR, it’s often the position that takes the longest time to become good, particularly with a QB who is still in the early stages of figuring things out himself. 

 

So what do pick at #22?  Maybe the answer is to trade down and take the WR a little later and pick up an extra second or third rounder.

 

 

I think there should be 1-2 good Edge players left at 22.  Gross or Lewis (PSU/Alabama) 

[yungmack]

Mulling it over, I think Beane is not close to finished with the lines, the O line in particular. Yeah, it was improved this year, stabilized, but not upper level. So I feel we just might see an O lineman taken with that first pick. And with Zo, probably Phillips & Lawson gone, he has to be thinking about the D as well. That's why I don't think he'll go WR in the first, and maybe not even the second round. FA is going to be interesting.

[Tenhigh]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

No. It means they are miles ahead of the rancid OLs that we were forced to suffer through for 2 decades or so. My rants were repetitive but true. I can type a list of 30 or so blockers we had that were just awful. Remember when McNally was going to fix it? Please.

 

That said, I think that teams should always try to find talented blockers. Now we have a young QB with a monster arm, one of the strongest in the league. He needs more/better targets.

 

Jmo.

For some reason I just got a flash of Colin "Turnstyle" Brown.....

[Tatonka68]

The Draft is DEEP with WR's and there is no need to reach for a WR in the 1st round when there will be 1st round WR talent in the 2nd round. Not saying the Bills should not draft a WR in the 1st round.