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Yes we need help but why 1st Round WR's scare me


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2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

I see a lot of commentary on our pick at #22 .. and I agree we need WR help desperately  ... but wondering out loud ... maybe better to wait beyond round 1.  I also see where there are many posts about all these WR's going before pick #22.  I'm not so sure of that given recent history (see below), that such a run is reality and last time such a run happened (see 2017 below .. 3 WR picks before pick 10) .. what a nightmare. 

 

That said, Watkins hangover aside, recent history and said pick performance is a great teacher here.  ArmChair QB'ing past drafts is like suiting up as Captain Obvious.  That said, put me in the camp to wait till rounds 2 and 3 for the WR and grab BPA at 22 (say OL or Lorax replacement).

 

image.png.f29a11fe78328f4dffea6e9b3d72d043.png

 

Check out the quality of WR's drafted in round 1 in the past 5 years.

 

2019 - (2) in first round .. Hollywood Brown (not bad rookie year), NKeal Harry

2018 - (2) in the first round ... DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley (best of the 5 years in my opinion)

2017 - (3) in the first round .. Banner year for GM's .. all picked before pick #10 .. again these are year 3 WR's ... Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross ... woof

2016 - (4) in the first round ... Another GM cluster ... Corey Coleman, Will Fuller (OK), Josh Doctson, LaQuan Treadwell ... woof

2015 - (6) in the first round ... Amari Cooper (best of above bunch), Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Aghlor, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett ... so I ask you which one of these net of Cooper do you bet the house on after their rookie contract??

 

That said .. round 2 / 3 WR's in same draft (there are more .. but pulling names that in my opinion .. stand up better to many from Round 1)

2019 - Deebo Samuel / AJ Brown --- Yes Please

2018 - DJ Chark, Christian Kirk ... now granted for this year .. the 1st round is likely better

2017 - the infamous Zay Jones pick .. JuJu (stated on many a post), Cooper Cupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay .. again the point being compare to the first round choices .. WOOF

2016 - Michael "Frickin" Thomas, Tyler Boyd ...

2015 - Tyler Lockett .... past that not a lot

 

 

 

Michael Thomas is the best in the game...I have him in a keeper FFL and he will be piling up points for me for years

Godwin put up over 1300 yards this year and 9 TD's.  I will take one of those...

Edited by matter2003
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1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

 

Michael Thomas is the best in the game...I have him in a keeper FFL and he will be piling up points for me for years

Godwin put up over 1300 yards this year and 9 TD's.  I will take one of those...

Golladay is no slouch either as with his 65 for 1190 and 11 TDs this season and has the size we need at 6-4 214.

 

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Just now, The Jokeman said:

Golladay is no slouch either as with his 65 for 1190 and 11 TDs this season and has the size we need at 6-4 214.

 

 

Yeah he has really come on for the Lions too...

 

It's honestly like GM's and scouts don't know what to look for in elite WR's anymore...they are valuing the wrong things more highly than the right things.  

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Just now, matter2003 said:

 

Yeah he has really come on for the Lions too...

 

It's honestly like GM's and scouts don't know what to look for in elite WR's anymore...they are valuing the wrong things more highly than the right things.  

To be fair Zay has good size and good speed, played well at the Sr Bowl and we had his former coach as his coach the first year we had him.

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1 hour ago, Plano said:

Draft a WR with every. single. pick! I've said it on other threads.

 

We're bound to get a stud or two, right?

 

Then we can fill all other holes with free agency.

People should remember that free agency is first.  WR is probably the only position I wouldn’t need set before the draft.  It is so deep this year we should be able to find what we need without addressing it in FA.

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34 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I do agree but I wouldn't want to lose sight of WR being the top need. I want at least 2. An early draft pick and the right free agent would work for me.

I’m with you Bill. It has to be 2 IMO. The lack of playmakers was glaring this year. The Bills have a couple of nice players in Brown and Beasley. Adding a talent that is better than both of them and another guy with a different skill set of their caliber would make this offense a whole lot more dynamic. How about Ruggs in the 1st and AJ Green in FA on an incentive laden deal? 

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4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m with you Bill. It has to be 2 IMO. The lack of playmakers was glaring this year. The Bills have a couple of nice players in Brown and Beasley. Adding a talent that is better than both of them and another guy with a different skill set of their caliber would make this offense a whole lot more dynamic. How about Ruggs in the 1st and AJ Green in FA on an incentive laden deal? 

 

I don't think we're gonna get AJ Green on an incentive-laden deal.  someone will open the checkbook unreservedly.

 

I will also put it out there: I think we are now 0 for 2 in having former Bengals disappear when they get here (AJ McCarron, Tyler Kroft).    I think they come out of whatever WCO they've been used to with Hue Jackson and Ken Zampese and something about Daboll's EP playbook blows their delicate young minds.  If we bring in a big-tag FA on offense, we better take one from an EP system, or make sure he's got strong fuses on his mental circuits.

 

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think we're gonna get AJ Green on an incentive-laden deal.  someone will open the checkbook unreservedly.

Then he would be a hard pass for me. He hasn’t been healthy in forever. I’d rather trade for a guy (OBJ?) if that’s the case. Otherwise, I’d sign a high ceiling guy with some issue like Robbie Anderson.

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36 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

I agree that I think WR is a top need. I trust Beane to get us the right guy at the right pick. 
I also agree with finding another guy later rounds as a project. Maybe a slot guy to take over for Beasley in a year or two. 
 

So you aren’t clamoring for oline picks, does that mean you think they are set? 

No. It means they are miles ahead of the rancid OLs that we were forced to suffer through for 2 decades or so. My rants were repetitive but true. I can type a list of 30 or so blockers we had that were just awful. Remember when McNally was going to fix it? Please.

 

That said, I think that teams should always try to find talented blockers. Now we have a young QB with a monster arm, one of the strongest in the league. He needs more/better targets.

 

Jmo.

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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Then he would be a hard pass for me. He hasn’t been healthy in forever. I’d rather trade for a guy (OBJ?) if that’s the case. Otherwise, I’d sign a high ceiling guy with some issue like Robbie Anderson.

 

What is Robbie Anderson's issue?  I saw some good play from him last season.  Found myself saying "wish we had a guy like that".

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What is Robbie Anderson's issue?  I saw some good play from him last season.  Found myself saying "wish we had a guy like that".

 

Has to do with a certain arrest when he told the police officer he, ahem...um....would leave his DNA in the officer's wife's ocular receptacle. 

 

(Mental gymnastics to keep it PG-13)

Edited by BigBuff423
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6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

No. It means they are miles ahead of the rancid OLs that we were forced to suffer through for 2 decades or so. My rants were repetitive but true. I can type a list of 30 or so blockers we had that were just awful. Remember when McNally was going to fix it? Please.

 

That said, I think that teams should always try to find talented blockers. Now we have a young QB with a monster arm, one of the strongest in the league. He needs more/better targets.

 

Jmo.

We had terrible olines . I couldn’t agree more with you. I always liked reading your posts debating oline with other posters. I played tackle into college, I believe oline is the single most important unit on the field. They help everyone look better, even the defense.

 

id like to see one oline pickup in the draft and depending on Spain one in FA. I really feel like even without Spain we have 5 starting caliber olinemen under contract next year. 

 

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9 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

Has to do with a certain arrest when he told the police officer he, ahem...um....would leave his DNA in the officer's wife's ocular receptacle. 

 

(Mental gymnastics to keep it PG-13)

That would constitute an issue. Yeah, I think so too. :o

 

Edited by Bill from NYC
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3 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Personally I’d prefer to see them go pass rusher in round #1 as they are harder to find in free agency.  Trouble is not certain there will be any good pass rushers left by #22 either.   Even if you draft what turns out to be a very good WR, it’s often the position that takes the longest time to become good, particularly with a QB who is still in the early stages of figuring things out himself. 

 

So what do pick at #22?  Maybe the answer is to trade down and take the WR a little later and pick up an extra second or third rounder.

 

Not this offseason 

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2 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

In particular this year's WR crop is very, very deep. In most mocks you can get Bryan Edwards / Michael Pittman in 3rd Round and sometimes the likes of Justin Jefferson or others in the 2nd. IMHO, you use the depth as the means to locating the best talent that can be developed. Asking a 1st rounder to come in and be the receiving savior for a team is a recipe for disaster. But asking a 2nd / 3rd round WR to come in and learn behind Smoke and Beasley can be a much more palatable option for all the reasons we don't need to dissect. 

 

Give me BPA in Round 1, even if it is a defensive player, and then use the 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds on RB / WR for gaining value. Let's not sleep on LB as a need for good players and depth or CB as well. 

Jefferson in 2, if he is there, would be great.  I have a feeling he will move up a bit in the draft process, but I could be wrong.  He may not be a true #1, but he will be productive in my opinion.

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This picture will be a little clearer after free agency. If the Bills dont make a hard push to resign Spain then maybe they will put Ford there and look for OT in the draft. I think it will either be DE or WR in the first depending on how the board falls. Trading back isnt a bad idea if the two top DE's are off the board. 

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15 minutes ago, gregor7777 said:

I agree I'd prefer them to not use a first on a WR, but god help them from this fanbase if they don't. We'll crucify them if they don't get a WR in the 1st.

You may be right but I think most of the knowledgeable fans will look at the draft more strategically.  They will evaluate the value of the player taken, the likelihood of the player being able to be a real contributor in their first season, and whether the player addresses a need of the team.  Most people recognize the main needs of the team include WR, DE, LB, DT, o-line (RT), RB, and CB.  There is not a broad consensus on the priority.  Some of the needs are to provide good rotational players and depth.  IMHO WR, DE, and LB positions require players to be starters or major contributors.  Going into this draft, pass rushing DE is in the shortest supply in both the draft and free agency.  Beane is not going to neglect DE.  If he doesn't get one in free agency, we should expect Beane to make a move early in the draft.  This draft class is deep in WR, LB, and DT.  If he has to wait to day two to address these in the draft, the Bills will still get very good talent.  Just like last year, Beane's moves in free agency (including letting Lawson walk) will tell us about his approach in the draft.  We just need to chill and let "The Process" run its course.

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