What I learned from the Titans-Chiefs Championship game

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Jay free said:

Coaching and specialized personnel is how the chiefs and 49ers are doing it.......Andy Reid and Kyle shanahan are not predictable like daboll and infuse variety into their schemes.....so many different players get the ball and play a role.

 

a good running game is how all the playoff teams got here......including the bills.....but what I learned is that your passing game has to be on point......the bills are not.....

 

There's a lot Sean McDermott can learn from his old boss. It would help to get an offensive quality control coach to help check n balance daboll.....he simply is not a championship coordinator.

 

 

 

I'd argue coaching and specialized personnel is not how they're doing it, so much as it is part of what they're doing.

 

Both having good QBs I would argue is a more important piece. But good teams have a lot of things coming together.

 

Oh, and Daboll is predictable at times and unpredictable at others. The end result is you don't know what he's doing, but you can hope you do and if he's being predictable right then you'll stand a better chance of being right.

 

And you're dead wrong that Daboll's not a championship coordinator. Nick Saban can tell you that he is. I suppose you could say that Daboll isn't yet an NFL champion coordinator. That's correct ... so far. And I'd argue that without a defense like the Ravens 2000 defense or the Bears Buddy Ryan defense, OCs coaching QBs with the talent and experience of the QBs Daboll has coached are virtually all not championship OCs under the circumstances.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

He was covered by Gilmore the whole game in last year's AFC Championship game last year and had 8 catches for 114 yards. They doubled Hill & Kelce with other players. SF has a really good defense, but they have no one of the caliber of Gilmore in their backfield to cover Sammy one on one. Mahomes has the head & legs to avoid sacks & extend plays.

 

 

No. Wrong in two ways. First, while Watkins had 114 yards, he had eight targets, but only had four catches. And Gilmore was on him for only one of the four.

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019012001/2018/POST20/patriots@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

I can't tell you when Gilmore was covering Watkins. But I can tell you when he wasn't, and that was on three of Watkins' four catches.

 

2Q 6:03 15 yards. Gilmore is on the other side of the field covering Robinson

 

3Q 13:48 55 yards. Gilmore is covering Watkins. And it would have been sensational if he'd managed to cover him. On the play, Mahomes literally has six and a half seconds with no rush before he throws. Hard for anyone to cover someone for that long. Still, on this completion Gilmore was on Watkins, the only one of Sammy's catches where Gilmore was on him.

 

3Q 1:25 10 yards. 3rd and 2. Two Pats are lined up next to each other on the left with Watkins outside. Gilmore lines up opposite Watkins but deeper than the other defender. Watkins cuts underneath for a quick slant. Gilmore and the other defender switch and Gilmore covers the other guy.

 

4Q 2:54 38 yards. No Gilmore, he's on the opposite side of the field.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  The Chiefs will not be facing the Texans in the SB.  SF will pressure Mahomes with its DL.  If I am SF DC I make KC win it by making Mahomes go to Watkins and Hardiman.  I take Hill out as much as possible via pass interference.  The SF defensive staff as we speak are checking out the officiating crew for the SB and its tendencies.  I don't think that KC can win if 2/3 of the passes go in the direction of Watkins and Hardiman.  I would have to go back and check Kelce's stats for the AFCG but he did not jump out at me yesterday while watching the television.

 

Whereas I think the 49ers can ONLY win if they get up early. If I am Andy Reid I want to win the toss, take the ball, and make sure my opening script on offense is perfect. If Kansas City get up by more than a single score at any point in the game it is over.

[RochesterRob]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whereas I think the 49ers can ONLY win if they get up early. If I am Andy Reid I want to win the toss, take the ball, and make sure my opening script on offense is perfect. If Kansas City get up by more than a single score at any point in the game it is over.

  I think a fair amount depends on the number of completions Mahomes has.  This past Sunday he was 23 out of 35 attempts for a 65 percent completion rate.  Good but not great.  I still think that SF DL will get more pressure than what Ten did which will make the completion rate dip.  Let's say he gets 20-25 completions or just go down the middle and say 23 but needs 375 yards to win then he needs to average 16.3 yards per catch on average to achieve that.  Watkins was 11 for 114 last Sunday or just a bit over 10 yards per catch.  If the KC receivers average 10 yards per catch that is a win for SF.  This was my point with Watkins in terms of pulling rabbits out of his hat.  Last Sunday he had a few big plays but he will need more than a few to get his share of completions to have a big day due to less targets from 23 QB completions.  Lets say say he needs 100-120 yards to carry his team to a win but he has to do it with 7 catches then he has to average nearly 16 yards per catch.  I just think that is asking a lot as there will be small plays in there so that leaves the remaining catches to make up the difference.  Sammy may need to have 4 catches that net 80 yards.  Certainly not impossible given KC's capabilities but still asking for quite a bit.  

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think a fair amount depends on the number of completions Mahomes has.  This past Sunday he was 23 out of 35 attempts for a 65 percent completion rate.  Good but not great.  I still think that SF DL will get more pressure than what Ten did which will make the completion rate dip.  Let's say he gets 20-25 completions or just go down the middle and say 23 but needs 375 yards to win then he needs to average 16.3 yards per catch on average to achieve that.  Watkins was 11 for 114 last Sunday or just a bit over 10 yards per catch.  If the KC receivers average 10 yards per catch that is a win for SF.  This was my point with Watkins in terms of pulling rabbits out of his hat.  Last Sunday he had a few big plays but he will need more than a few to get his share of completions to have a big day due to less targets from 23 QB completions.  Lets say say he needs 100-120 yards to carry his team to a win but he has to do it with 7 catches then he has to average nearly 16 yards per catch.  I just think that is asking a lot as there will be small plays in there so that leaves the remaining catches to make up the difference.  Sammy may need to have 4 catches that net 80 yards.  Certainly not impossible given KC's capabilities but still asking for quite a bit.  

 

My point is more based on if KC get up 10 or 14 and they can slow the 49ers rush even just a bit and force Jimmy G to drop back, read the whole field and throw I don't think there is any way the 49ers win. If the 49ers get out to a lead and the can stick to run and play action they have a very good chance. They can't get behind. What we have learned from these playoffs is the running teams who rely on play action passing (San Fran are in this club) are significantly less effective once they are chasing a deficit. It gets them out of their comfort zone very quickly. KC have started slow in the playoffs so far... if they do that against San Fran they might not find a way back... but if they can start fast and build a lead I think it is very hard to see San Fran coming back. They are not built to do that.

[Mr. K]

Having weapons at WR RB & TE helps you score points. Having a QB that hits players everywhere on the field helps you score points (and I have no problems with us not drafting him who knows if it works for the Bills). Next year is year 3 and I hope these guys can add difference makers on offense.  

 

What else did I learn... oh yeah, scoring over 24 points helps you win more games

[Bob in STL]

We need to win our division and get home playoff games.

 

I talked to a Pats* fan yesterday about the AFC playoffs.

 

He is worried about the Bills.  He said if Allen can control himself and take another step forward the Bills are a legit contender.  He is impressed with Beane and McD and he expects that we will add weapons and improve this off season. 

 

In typical Pats* fashion he is ready to move on from Brady and he is confident that Billy will find a QB to keep them in contention 

Edited January 21, 2020 by Bob in STL

[BillsVet]

23 hours ago, mushypeaches said:

Offensive coaching is #1 for me.  We can't keep trying to win scoring 17 points if we're never going to legitimately threaten other teams with schemes & personnel

 

Teams are not hiring defensive coaches to be HC's because it takes more to grasp the intricacies of offensive football.   

 

There's a big problem when Buffalo couldn't score more than 19 points in their final 5 games. 

 

I know there are some here who place the blame on the players, but it's largely a HC unwilling to see that his style of football does not work when playing the big boys.  It's why McD is 3-17 against teams that eventually made the playoffs or in the playoffs.  His averages in those 20 games? ~12 points for against ~26 points allowed. 

 

15 hours ago, eball said:

Mahomes is awesome but damn, the weapons he has would make any QB look like a star. Like I posted up thread, he is literally throwing to wide open guys all day. 

 

I've noticed that most teams who identify that their QB is franchise material surround that guy with weapons.  KC is one of many to do this. 

 

They don't spend 3 of their first 4 first round picks on defense.   Or eschew skill players in the draft for plodding OL who can't play the position they were drafted for. 

 

The 2020 off-season is about Josh Allen And that means McD has to change from riding his defense to being an explosive offense.  

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No. Wrong in two ways. First, while Watkins had 114 yards, he had eight targets, but only had four catches. And Gilmore was on him for only one of the four.

 

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2019012001/2018/POST20/patriots@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr

 

I can't tell you when Gilmore was covering Watkins. But I can tell you when he wasn't, and that was on three of Watkins' four catches.

 

2Q 6:03 15 yards. Gilmore is on the other side of the field covering Robinson

 

3Q 13:48 55 yards. Gilmore is covering Watkins. And it would have been sensational if he'd managed to cover him. On the play, Mahomes literally has six and a half seconds with no rush before he throws. Hard for anyone to cover someone for that long. Still, on this completion Gilmore was on Watkins, the only one of Sammy's catches where Gilmore was on him.

 

3Q 1:25 10 yards. 3rd and 2. Two Pats are lined up next to each other on the left with Watkins outside. Gilmore lines up opposite Watkins but deeper than the other defender. Watkins cuts underneath for a quick slant. Gilmore and the other defender switch and Gilmore covers the other guy.

 

4Q 2:54 38 yards. No Gilmore, he's on the opposite side of the field.

 

 

 

 

You're right he only had 4 catches, that puts his YPC at a crazy 28.5 yards that game. Gilmore was lined up opposite of him most of the game, I was working out while watching and every time I looked up Gilmore was covering him which struck me as odd, I thought he'd would've been on Hill the whole game. Gilmore was lined up across from him twice on his catches, there's another one where KC has 3 WRs in a bunch formation and it's hard to see who's responsible for who. The last catch, you are correct McCourty is covering him straight up man to man.

 

 

[Gordio]

On 1/20/2020 at 1:06 PM, Motorin' said:

 

So the 9er's have to commit pass interference on Hill every play. All righty then. Sure, if they can hold him and interfere with him all game and not get called for it then I agree, they have a shot at shutting them down. 

 

The difference is SF is going to be able to get pressure on Mahomes  by just sending their front 4.  Whether that is enough to win the game, not sure.  The big question is in this game can Jimmie G make enough plays to out score the KC offense.  Not sure about that one.  

 

[C.Biscuit97]

On 1/20/2020 at 1:41 PM, RochesterRob said:

  I'd grade out SF defensive backs as a group over NE.  As individuals the NE DB's are pretty good but SF obviously does something better to get more out of that unit.  There is also the factor that sometimes for a season a team plays above its normal abilities and I think that is where SF is at.  The Giants earned a few SB wins doing that.

Disagree. SF’s d backs greatly benefit from playing behind the NFL’s best d line.

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Disagree. SF’s d backs greatly benefit from playing behind the NFL’s best d line.

  The cornerstone to my argument that SF has some favorable matchups versus KC is the SF DL.  I think that Mahomes completion percentage will be down somewhat but that the number of attempts will be up slightly still putting him at 20-25 completions.  Under 20 completions is a clear victory for the SF defense.  Anyways, if the DL does it part I think that the secondary can play well enough for SF to win the game.

20 minutes ago, Gordio said:

 

The difference is SF is going to be able to get pressure on Mahomes  by just sending their front 4.  Whether that is enough to win the game, not sure.  The big question is in this game can Jimmie G make enough plays to out score the KC offense.  Not sure about that one.  

 

  I think that it is very reasonable for SF to hang 30 points on the KC defense.  The biggest question is if the SF DL comes through.  The KC defense while it makes plays is not down right scary.  Henry was getting yards and most likely Mostert will, too.

[Spiderweb]

On 1/20/2020 at 11:16 AM, IDBillzFan said:

What it told me is if your game is all about play-action, you better learn how to keep your lead.

Yep, Tanny looked like the Tanny of old once forced out of pass action.

[gomper]

I love SF in this game by 10. Patty will make his plays as the game goes on but if KC stars slow, again,  they're cooked. This Niners team is no joke and Jimmy G will make the throws when he has to. SF D line is great getting pressure with 4. Plus, you can always count on Andy Reid to make some baffling decision worth 3 points.  They'll never be able to handle the SF ground game. Shanahan is one of the best play callers in the game.