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Double down on defense and O-line


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Just now, Dr. Who said:

I dunno, I think this is just a backhanded way of saying you think Allen sucks at qb and is best as a glorified rb.

You're wrong about that.

 

I don't think he's very good. I think he leaves way too many plays on the field with his horrible downfield accuracy.

 

I think Devin Singletary is going to be a star in the NFL. I think he should be the focal point of the offense next year and be getting 15 carries a game and 40-45 catches out of the backfield. 

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1 hour ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

If this is the case, we're in a lot of trouble regarding player evaluation and coaching.  We just got a new D-line coach and I expect reinforcements on the d-line, as well.

 

I don't see more investment in defensive line with the bills defense than I do in any other unit really. but I also think that a lot of us are victims of watching the bills defense a little bit too closely and we don't understand how good it actually is because we're looking for the 2018 bears the 2017 jaguars or the 2019 Steelers.

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12 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

There could be 4 additions.

And I would say they have invested. 
Draft:

Harrison Phillips 3rd Round Pick

Ed Oliver 1st Round Pick

 

Free Agents:

Trent Murphy 

Stat Lotulelei

 

Extended:

Jerry Hughes

 

 

-You could argue that you don’t agree with how they’re investing at D-Line, but they’re definitely putting valuable resources there.

 

And I would argue they have a set up in place.

Murphy is $9M/yr, but can be cut this off-season if they find a better option. 

Star is $10M/yr but can be cut after 2020.
Hughes is also expensive but can be cut after the 2020 season.

 

I do believe they’ll bring Shaq back.

I also believe they’ll spend another $8-$20M on a free agent (I’m not sure how hard they want to go, or who they like, so it could vary greatly, they could go after a Vic Beasley for $6-$8 per year, or Ngakoue for $18-$20 per year.)

 

i also believe they’ll draft an edge in round 1 or 2. 
 

They’ve made quality additions to this team at Corner, Safety, Linebackers. 

On offense they’ve re-done the entire group. And made the playoffs while converting an old expensive roster into a young cheap one.

 

I think it’s a good sign that they’ll make quality improvements on the edge this off-season as well. 

 

I suspect you're right that Beane and McD have a plan in place to address the needs on the D-line, as well as other positions; time will tell if it is a good/correct plan.  What they can't do is say they want continuity because that ruined Carolina the year after the SB loss.  Replace and upgrade positions that need fixed such as DE/edge, 1-tech DT, RT, WR, RB, OLB.  Don't bring back a Trent Murphy just for continuity sake.  I like the optimism in your post and hope you're spot on.

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

I don't think he's very good. I think he leaves way too many plays on the field with his horrible downfield accuracy.

 

I think Devin Singletary is going to be a star in the NFL. I think he should be the focal point of the offense next year and be getting 15 carries a game and 40-45 catches out of the backfield. 

Singletary is very good. We need a stable of good running backs, so I think upgrading the overall quality there is wise. I'd like Conklin in free agency to really address RT, but I am definitely looking to add a WR1 early in the draft. Allen is better than you credit, but I'm not going to argue with the convinced. Next year will probably determine who is correct in their assessment there.

9 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

I believe we still have pieces we need to add to the D-line and O-line, especially the right side; those are a priority, before a skill position.  I'm aware we need a WR1 and a RB to alternate with Singletary.  We have enough cap space and draft picks that we should be able to address these needs this off season.  So saying offense first, then defense if we have time and resources is not the correct way to go about filling in gaps.  

I think Edge may be addressed in free agency. I'd like to add RT and G in free agency as well. Ford might end up kicked inside replacing Spain.

You can find a good rb in the middle rounds. I'm not worried about that. If a big, fast WR1 with good hands and tracking ability isn't the top target I think it's a mistake.

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Just now, Dr. Who said:

Singletary is very good. We need a stable of good running backs, so I think upgrading the overall quality there is wise. I'd like Conklin in free agency to really address RT, but I am definitely looking to add a WR1 early in the draft. Allen is better than you credit, but I'm not going to argue with the convinced. Next year will probably determine who is correct in their assessment there.

 

I assume Yeldon just walks into Gore's role, which I don't think is a bad thing. He's 26, has minimal wear on his tires, and essentially just took a year off. He should be fresh next year and I think he'll have a lot more juice than we saw from Gore.

 

Another complimentary back would be useful. Either someone really big or someone with high end receiving ability, who could even be moved around and put in the backfield or slot with Singletary also on the field.

 

I agree we need another receiver. Not sure it needs to be in the 1st round though. This is an insanely talent WR draft and guys will drop due to there being so much supply at the position. I bet 1st round talents fall into the second round as teams prioritize other positions with only a couple good players. 

 

Upgrading the line is a must. It was better this year, but if we can turn it into a real strength where we just dominate the line of scrimmage, that would make this team so dangerous because we could control the clock, shorten the game, and limit the number of opportunities opponents get against our defense which was 2nd in the NFL this year in points allowed per drive.

 

With how good our defense is, we should be playing exactly how the 49ers played yesterday and the Seahawks played when Russell Wilson was breaking into the league.

 

Dominate on defense, and run the ball down the oppositions throat all game. Then take your shots at passing off play action when the defense brings 8 men into the box.

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12 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I assume Yeldon just walks into Gore's role, which I don't think is a bad thing. He's 26, has minimal wear on his tires, and essentially just took a year off. He should be fresh next year and I think he'll have a lot more juice than we saw from Gore.

 

Another complimentary back would be useful. Either someone really big or someone with high end receiving ability, who could even be moved around and put in the backfield or slot with Singletary also on the field.

 

I agree we need another receiver. Not sure it needs to be in the 1st round though. This is an insanely talent WR draft and guys will drop due to there being so much supply at the position. I bet 1st round talents fall into the second round as teams prioritize other positions with only a couple good players. 

 

Upgrading the line is a must. It was better this year, but if we can turn it into a real strength where we just dominate the line of scrimmage, that would make this team so dangerous because we could control the clock, shorten the game, and limit the number of opportunities opponents get against our defense which was 2nd in the NFL this year in points allowed per drive.

 

With how good our defense is, we should be playing exactly how the 49ers played yesterday and the Seahawks played when Russell Wilson was breaking into the league.

 

Dominate on defense, and run the ball down the oppositions throat all game. Then take your shots at passing off play action when the defense brings 8 men into the box.

I actually agree with almost all of this. I just believe Allen is likely to end up a franchise qb, and that's a pretty major difference.

It's true the WR depth in the draft is exceptional. I am still inclined to grab one early and also draft another later in the draft. I am not an expert, but to my old eyes, Jeudy and Lamb appear to stand out as players I would take if I had my choice of any of the receivers. I also like Ruggs. I would trade up for either of the first two. Ruggs and Higgins are fellas I like at #22 if they are there. If you pass on WR in the first, I hope Jefferson is there in the second. Rbs I like are Swift (probably a first rounder, so too rich for us,) Dobbins (2nd? maybe, but probably still too early), Etienne (could you get him in the third?) and AJ Dillon (fifth or six, really like him as a bruiser back who probably is available for a decent price.)

 

Forgot about Najee Harris -- he's an excellent choice at rb and might be there in the third, not sure.

Edited by Dr. Who
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1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I actually agree with almost all of this. I just believe Allen is likely to end up a franchise qb, and that's a pretty major difference.

It's true the WR depth in the draft is exceptional. I am still inclined to grab one early and also draft another later in the draft. I am not an expert, but to my old eyes, Jeudy and Lamb appear to stand out as players I would take if I had my choice of any of the receivers. I also like Ruggs. I would trade up for either of the first two. Ruggs and Higgins are fellas I like at #22 if they are there. If you pass on WR in the first, I hope Jefferson is there in the second. Rbs I like are Swift (probably a first rounder, so too rich for us,) Dobbins (2nd? maybe, but probably still too early), Etienne (could you get him in the third?) and AJ Dillon (fifth or six, really like him as a bruiser back who probably is available for a decent price.)

 

I'd go OL in the 1st and then WR in the 2nd. I think that maximizes value based off our needs and the identity we're trying to go for.

 

Then in free agency I'd spend money that will make that side of the ball elite. Sign a corner, find an edge who can rush the passer, resign Lawson, etc, and make ours the best defense in the NFL. 

 

The defense is what's going to carry this team for the next year or two while Josh continues developing. Spend the money there, and draft offense who will grow with Josh at QB.

 

Then in 2-3 years, provided Josh has worked out, begin swinging the pendulum and begin allocating more of our spending on the offense, with the hope that it's become good enough to replace the need for an elite defense.

 

This would require Josh to be a bonafide top 10 QB. If he's not that, cut bait, draft another young guy on a rookie deal for 5 years and keep riding that defense and running game. 

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4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I'd go OL in the 1st and then WR in the 2nd. I think that maximizes value based off our needs and the identity we're trying to go for.

 

Then in free agency I'd spend money that will make that side of the ball elite. Sign a corner, find an edge who can rush the passer, resign Lawson, etc, and make ours the best defense in the NFL. 

 

The defense is what's going to carry this team for the next year or two while Josh continues developing. Spend the money there, and draft offense who will grow with Josh at QB.

 

Then in 2-3 years, provided Josh has worked out, begin swinging the pendulum and begin allocating more of our spending on the offense, with the hope that it's become good enough to replace the need for an elite defense.

 

This would require Josh to be a bonafide top 10 QB. If he's not that, cut bait, draft another young guy on a rookie deal for 5 years and keep riding that defense and running game. 

If you're going oline in the first, I'd love to get Andrew Thomas, but I think you'd have to trade up pretty high to get him.

 

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7 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

True.

 

I feel like the last time I checked rushing attempts per game was mid season and I feel like they were right up there with Baltimore.

 

I stand fully corrected. 

 

I guess I'd like us run it with our running backs as much as they do. This year we only ran it with our backs 22 times a game with our backs which isn't enough in my opinion. 

 

Ideally I think our backs touch it 28-30 times a game and Allen adds in 4-6 runs. 

 

I don't think we were "up there" with Baltimore and their 38 apg midseason.  At midseason, Singletary was just working back from his hamstring injury. Gore was averaging 14 carries per game.  Allen is typically about 6.

 

Buffalo's backs (excluding a few carries from McKensie, Brown etc functioning as backs) averaged just over 21 apg.  Devin Singletary contributed 12.6 apg (played 12 games).  Even in 2015-2016 when we led the league in rushing yards, our backs were seeing 24-25 apg.

 

Top backs in the NFL like Henry or Elliot don't see more than 18-19 carries per game, so wanting our backs to carry 28-30x per game would mean acquiring another back at least as effective as Singletary to be a successful notion, maybe 2 backs.
 

If you want RBs to have 28-30 apg and Allen another 6 apg, that leaves about 27 pass plays per game given the league average of 63.5 plays per game.    Allen had better have a big-ass jump in completion percentage and in YPA, because at 60% completions and 6.7 ypa that would give us about 108 ypg - and if he has a big-ass jump in completion percentage and YPA, why wouldn't we have him pass more?

 

I think you're throwing out numbers without looking at how top rushing teams actually work or thinking thru how this might practically be implemented.

 

 

 

 

 

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we have a top 3 defense already, and got nowhere but a wildcard birth and 1st round exit. 

 

the Bills won't do anything until they fix their 29th ranked pass offense. the run game doesn't just automatically open up, teams stack the box against us because they know we aren't beating anyone through the air. 

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3 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

we have a top 3 defense already, and got nowhere but a wildcard birth and 1st round exit. 

 

the Bills won't do anything until they fix their 29th ranked pass offense. the run game doesn't just automatically open up, teams stack the box against us because they know we aren't beating anyone through the air. 

Yikes....we went nowhere? They exited the first round only after going deep into an OVERTIME, to finish off a season as a playoff team for the second time in three years.  I wouldn't call that 'nowhere' by any means.

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Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Yikes....we went nowhere? They exited the first round only after going deep into an OVERTIME, to finish off a season as a playoff team for the second time in three years.  I wouldn't call that 'nowhere' by any means.

 

not good enough though. this was the year to win the division and knock NE off their perch. We couldn't even manage to beat them once. 

 

Our offense was terrible this year despite fans wanting to think otherwise. 

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20 hours ago, Mark92 said:

Nothing has changed.  Step back from the ledge everyone.  This league is such a copycat league it's kind of crazy.  Everyone is gonna want to replicate what the Niners have done.  Shanahan is the NEW Mcvay.  

Shanahan's been phenomenal considering how he did with Atlanta's SB offense as well

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2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

not good enough though. this was the year to win the division and knock NE off their perch. We couldn't even manage to beat them once. 

 

Our offense was terrible this year despite fans wanting to think otherwise. 

Our offense was hurting for sure, but I don't agree that 'this was the year'. The Bills played NE really close in both games.  That seemed like decent progress against the Super Bowl Champs to me.  Trust the process.  This all revolves around Josh Allen's development, and unless you own a time machine, you better get ready for the ride.

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7 hours ago, y2zipper said:

 

I don't see more investment in defensive line with the bills defense than I do in any other unit really. but I also think that a lot of us are victims of watching the bills defense a little bit too closely and we don't understand how good it actually is because we're looking for the 2018 bears the 2017 jaguars or the 2019 Steelers.

I am agreeing here......I would like to know how it is the DL and not just the defense overall......

 

1st round picks

Tre White

Edmunds

Olvier

 

That is three different positions.....the free agents brought into our team were not the faces of those free agencies.

 

This would be why we have like 100 million in cap space

 

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There have been so many coaching and regime changes over the last decade it's hard to keep it all straight or recall where everyone was taken, but I have to say the McBeane era has been pretty strong.

 

2017: (1) TreDavious  (2) Dawkins (5) Milano

2018: (1) Allen (1) Edmunds (3) H Phillips

2019: (1) Oliver (2) Ford (3) Singletary (3) Knox

 

Those are ALL of the top draft picks with the exception of Zay Jones in 2018 where when we didn't have a 3rd or 4th rounder.

 

That's a darn good nucleus and represents a pretty equal commitment to both sides of the line of scrimmage.

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21 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

It's more about how the 49ers are built, from the lines out.  Not necessarily running more; they ran to expose GB and Pettine's weakness in rush D.

They have 3 1st rd picks on that line. Bosa, Buckner, Thomas. I agree after the kaepernick era ended the team... People retiring out of no where. They stayed course drafted up front that D-Line is paying dividends.

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On ‎1‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 6:15 AM, TPS said:

The Rams had the "unstoppable " offense last year and scored 3 points. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out this year...?  Should be a great game.

 

Agreed about the Rams. But they also had an inexperienced HC, along with a young QB, who had no clue how to counteract what Belichek was doing. Belichek has done this time and time again to young QB's and young coaches throughout his career. The game before in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs put up 31 points against the same defense which held the Rams to 3 points. This season, the Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl. The Titans tried to duplicate their success against the Ravens, by playing a ball-control game relying heavily on their run game to have long, time consuming drives to keep the Chiefs potent offense off the field (the same strategy Belichek used against the Bills in Super Bowl XXV). The Chiefs have way too much fire power on offense and were able to score quickly and often against the Titans as they took control of the game in the second half. It goes to show you that having a lot of weapons at your disposal, along with experienced coaches will win you a lot of games. IMO, the time for the Bills to load up on offensive talent is now, as Allen is going into year three (of five) of his rookie contract. Otherwise, if the Bills decide to give Allen an extension, expect either a short term deal like Kirk Cousins (his was 3yrs/$84M fully guaranteed) or a long term deal, which is going to be for more than $100M for the length of it. At that point, it will be harder to sign key FA's and the Bills will have to rely more heavily on their draft picks, which could take some time to develop.

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17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think we were "up there" with Baltimore and their 38 apg midseason.  At midseason, Singletary was just working back from his hamstring injury. Gore was averaging 14 carries per game.  Allen is typically about 6.

 

Buffalo's backs (excluding a few carries from McKensie, Brown etc functioning as backs) averaged just over 21 apg.  Devin Singletary contributed 12.6 apg (played 12 games).  Even in 2015-2016 when we led the league in rushing yards, our backs were seeing 24-25 apg.

 

Top backs in the NFL like Henry or Elliot don't see more than 18-19 carries per game, so wanting our backs to carry 28-30x per game would mean acquiring another back at least as effective as Singletary to be a successful notion, maybe 2 backs.
 

If you want RBs to have 28-30 apg and Allen another 6 apg, that leaves about 27 pass plays per game given the league average of 63.5 plays per game.    Allen had better have a big-ass jump in completion percentage and in YPA, because at 60% completions and 6.7 ypa that would give us about 108 ypg - and if he has a big-ass jump in completion percentage and YPA, why wouldn't we have him pass more?

 

I think you're throwing out numbers without looking at how top rushing teams actually work or thinking thru how this might practically be implemented.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wasn't talking about the Bills. 

 

I was talking about the 49ers. 

 

And what I said was 100% true.

 

Through the first 8 weeks (seven games), the 49ers rushed the ball 38.8 times per game, which was right in line with Baltimore.

 

That's the last time I looked at team rushing attempts, which is what I based my comment on that we should run it like 40 times a game. Since then things obviously changed, which is something I hadn't realized. 

Edited by jrober38
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