Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, bobobonators said:

I really like Josh Allen and he has 100% of my support as a fan. The numbers between him and Wilson do seem similar; however, I still feel that Wilson was a more polished passer at this point in his career. I know the numbers dont necessarily reflect that but I do not remember Wilson missing as many open receivers as Allen has. Again, this is not meant to be a criticism of Allen. Maybe im just jaded since I watch Allen more. 

 

No, you’re not jaded.  But Wilson essentially took an extra step going to Wisconsin from Carolina for a year.

[White Linen]

On 1/15/2020 at 10:37 AM, JayBaller10 said:

When he gets the deep ball down he’ll be a legitimate force. Chunk plays will help to mask many of his other inconsistencies. 

 

Can we start with learning how to run a screen pass?  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

Can we start with learning how to run a screen pass?  

 

That would be nice

[formerlyofCtown]

2 hours ago, JetsFan20 said:

Yea...I like Josh Allen as a prospect, but I don’t think he’s Dan Marino yet. Have you ever watched Dan Marino play? 
 

Obviously 2017 the Jets should have drafted Watson or Mahomes, but a lot of teams made that mistake-Bills included.

In my opinion Dan Marino is the GOAT.  I view SBs as a team accomplishment.  As far as the comparison it is mainly based on the fact that they passed on both.

 

I also think it would be nice to revisit this in a few years as to how he compares to Marino.  Josh Allen definitely had GOAT potential.

[formerlyofCtown]

9 hours ago, DCofNC said:

We could be best football friends.  You are spot on.  When Allen hit the last step of the drop and fired those 6 yard darts to Beasley or had the chance to run around and make a play, good things happen.  The moment he had to sit and read the field, all hell broke loose.   While I think Darnold is a better passer than Allen, he struggles with pressure and reads as well.  I was a big fan of Darnold coming out and thought he would be doing more at this point, he has been a colossal disappointment thus far.  That draft calss thatvwas supposed to be '84 or 04' reincarnated, looks like it may go down as the most dissapointing QB drafts in a long time.  If I had to call it as I see it now:

 

Mayfield : solid, never spectacular starter, probably will be replaced.

 

Darnold : Jamis Winston without the crab legs?

 

Allen: The struggling version of Cam Newton

 

Rosen: out if the league after 4 years

 

Jackson:  less of a passer version of Mike Vick, hopefully no dog fights.

 

Translation, none of the 1st round guys end up as your real franchise players.  Where we disagree slightly, I think Darnold still has the best chance to become more, he just has to prove he can read a D.  That can be learned, regardless of what people here try to convince me of, I have never seen a wildly innacurate QB ever change the first 21 years of their throwing mechanics in the the pros and suddenly become a great passer, so my hope for Allen is low.  

Well it's clear.  You couldn't evaluate QBs before that draft and still can't evaluate them now.  Josh Allen has steadily improved.  Unfortunately your evaluation skills have not?

[dma0034]

Those Passing stats are very different.... we shouldn't pretend they're close

[BigDingus]

On 1/15/2020 at 9:34 AM, warrior9 said:

I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. 

 

What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage.

 

Josh in year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3	45.8	38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5	11

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	109	510	9	42	36	4.7	31.9	6.8												109	4.7	510	9	14

 

RW year 2:

Passing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	13-3-0	257	407	63.1	3357	26	6.4	9	2.2	157	80	8.2	8.5	13.1	209.8	101.2	66.8	44	272	6.84	7.10	9.8	3	4	16

 

Rushing:

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	1D	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	1D	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	Touch	Y/Tch	YScm	RRTD	Fmb
2013*	25	SEA	QB	3	16	16	96	539	1	31	27	5.6	33.7	6.0												96	5.6	539	1	12

 

 

That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). 

 

Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. 

 

--I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons!

This is a far more accurate breakdown than just trying to compare some stats for a single year - https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/this-statistical-comparison-should-have-bills-worried-about-josh-allen

People can make whatever reach they want to build up Allen in their minds, but it's pretty clear he has some fundamental issues that aren't ever going to change. Russell Wilson on the other hand had already shown both in college and the NFL that he had real potential without the game breaking flaws that Allen has.1

[Billy Claude]

As mentioned before the obvious difference is the adjusted net yard per attempt (ANY/A).   Wilson's was 6.84 which ranked 7th that year while Allen's is 5.72 which ranked 23rd.  Everybody supporting the narrative that their numbers are similar seems to ignore this obvious one.  However, lets consider some other global rating methods.

They are remarkably consistent:

 

NFL Rating:  Wilson 2013: 7th,    Allen 2018: 32nd,   Allen 2019: 24th  (NFL)

ANY/A:    Wilson 2013: 7th,  Allen 2018: 32nd,  Allen 2019: 23rd  (Pro Football Reference)

DYAR: Wilson 2013:  9th,  Allen 2018: 33rd,  Allen 2019:  27th  (Football Outsiders)

DVOA: Wilson 2013:  8th,  Allen 2018:  33rd,  Allen 2019:  27th  (Football Outsiders)

QBR:  Wilson 2013: 8th,  Allen 2018: 24th,  Allen 2019: 24th (ESPN)

 

I like ANY/A since the formula is easy to understand  (Passing yds - sack yards + (20*passing TDs) - (45*interceptions))/(attempts + sacks).  The other measures try to take into account opponent strength.  

 

In any case all the global measures are extremely consistent --(1)  Wilson was a lot better in his 2nd year than Allen was and (2) Allen improved from his rookie year. 

 

The only rating that differs is QBR which gave Allen a much better ranking in 2018 than the others,  most possibly because it includes rushing while the other's don't.

 

You might ask is there a difference between 7th and 24th?  The QB's ranked 24 and 25 in the different metrics in 2013 were ANY/A: Keenum, Campbell,  DVAR: Locker, Clemens, DVOA: Vicks, Clemens, NFL Rating: Tannehill, Cassell  QBR: Cassell, Tannehill.

 

So unless you want to believe that all these metrics are wrong I don't how one can say Allen year 2 is anywhere close to Wilson year 2.

[JaCrispy]

10 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

As mentioned before the obvious difference is the adjusted net yard per attempt (ANY/A).   Wilson's was 6.84 which ranked 7th that year while Allen's is 5.72 which ranked 23rd.  Everybody supporting the narrative that their numbers are similar seems to ignore this obvious one.  However, lets consider some other global rating methods.

They are remarkably consistent:

 

NFL Rating:  Wilson 2013: 7th,    Allen 2018: 32nd,   Allen 2019: 24th  (NFL)

ANY/A:    Wilson 2013: 7th,  Allen 2018: 32nd,  Allen 2019: 23rd  (Pro Football Reference)

DYAR: Wilson 2013:  9th,  Allen 2018: 33rd,  Allen 2019:  27th  (Football Outsiders)

DVOA: Wilson 2013:  8th,  Allen 2018:  33rd,  Allen 2019:  27th  (Football Outsiders)

QBR:  Wilson 2013: 8th,  Allen 2018: 24th,  Allen 2019: 24th (ESPN)

 

I like ANY/A since the formula is easy to understand  (Passing yds - sack yards + (20*passing TDs) - (45*interceptions))/(attempts + sacks).  The other measures try to take into account opponent strength.  

 

In any case all the global measures are extremely consistent --(1)  Wilson was a lot better in his 2nd year than Allen was and (2) Allen improved from his rookie year. 

 

The only rating that differs is QBR which gave Allen a much better ranking in 2018 than the others,  most possibly because it includes rushing while the other's don't.

 

You might ask is there a difference between 7th and 24th?  The QB's ranked 24 and 25 in the different metrics in 2013 were ANY/A: Keenum, Campbell,  DVAR: Locker, Clemens, DVOA: Vicks, Clemens, NFL Rating: Tannehill, Cassell  QBR: Cassell, Tannehill.

 

So unless you want to believe that all these metrics are wrong I don't how one can say Allen year 2 is anywhere close to Wilson year 2.

I believe this is what the kids call a “drop the mic” moment...excellent post ?

[VW82]

This is the type of thread that divides the fan base when it comes to Allen. There was enough to like about the way Josh finished year 2. Why do we need to compare him to a future HOFer?

 

Russ's development into an MVP caliber player has been unconventional. He was a 3rd round pick. He played in a run oriented system, and then switched to a passing system. He won the SB in his rookie year and has been in the playoffs every year of his career. This is like when NBA fans compare their team's promising sophomore to Kawhi Leonard's second season. Like no, that guy is an outlier. The comp is disingenuous.

 

Unlike Russ, Josh has spent his first two years in a passing offense. Our base is three wide -- it's designed to promote passing production. Unfortunately we go through bouts where our OC loses confidence in our QB (justifiably) and so we get conservative and run with an oline that was designed to be a pass blocking unit (don't laugh). 

 

Comparing their year two stats makes about as much sense as comparing comparing year 2 Darnold with year 2 Steve Young. 

 

The one thing I like about Josh is two years in and I don't totally know what he is yet. That's unusual for current day QBs. Let's let him figure that out on his own without saddling him with unrealistic comparisons which he's destined to lose.    

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

This is the type of thread that divides the fan base when it comes to Allen. There was enough to like about the way Josh finished year 2. Why do we need to compare him to a future HOFer?

 

Russ's development into an MVP caliber player has been unconventional. He was a 3rd round pick. He played in a run oriented system, and then switched to a passing system. He won the SB in his rookie year and has been in the playoffs every year of his career. This is like when NBA fans compare their team's promising sophomore to Kawhi Leonard's second season. Like no, that guy is an outlier. The comp is disingenuous.

 

Unlike Russ, Josh has spent his first two years in a passing offense. Our base is three wide -- it's designed to promote passing production. Unfortunately we go through bouts where our OC loses confidence in our QB (justifiably) and so we get conservative and run with an oline that was designed to be a pass blocking unit (don't laugh). 

 

Comparing their year two stats makes about as much sense as comparing comparing year 2 Darnold with year 2 Steve Young. 

 

The one thing I like about Josh is two years in and I don't totally know what he is yet. That's unusual for current day QBs. Let's let him figure that out on his own without saddling him with unrealistic comparisons which he's destined to lose.    

 

You have a number of interesting points

 

Russ Wilson did not win a Superbowl as a rookie, nor has he been in the playoffs every year of his career.

 

I agree about not saddling Josh with unrealistic comparisons.

[Dr.Sack]

Allen made it to the playoffs & nearly pulled off a road upset. Allen is also you get than Wilson was his rookie year. I believe Wilson was 24, and Allen was 23. Allen has a ton of time in front of him. He just needs to improve his decision making, mechanics and accuracy. Oh and learn to slide.

[VW82]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You have a number of interesting points

 

Russ Wilson did not win a Superbowl as a rookie, nor has he been in the playoffs every year of his career.

 

I agree about not saddling Josh with unrealistic comparisons.

 

My bad. He won the SB in his second season and missed the playoffs once despite having a winning record that year. He's also made it to the second round of the playoffs or further in six of his eight seasons. Either way, I don't like the comparison.   

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Allen made it to the playoffs & nearly pulled off a road upset. Allen is also you get than Wilson was his rookie year. I believe Wilson was 24, and Allen was 23. Allen has a ton of time in front of him. He just needs to improve his decision making, mechanics and accuracy. Oh and learn to slide.

 

I have to ask...... how could a professional athlete, which EJ in fact WAS, have no clue how to slide? Did he never play T-Ball? He looked like a giraffe trying to slide!  CRAZY! 

[BringBackOrton]

33 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Allen made it to the playoffs & nearly pulled off a road upset. Allen is also you get than Wilson was his rookie year. I believe Wilson was 24, and Allen was 23. Allen has a ton of time in front of him. He just needs to improve his decision making, mechanics and accuracy. Oh and learn to slide.

Russell Wilson won the Super Bowl his second year.

 

The Wilson - Allen comparison after year two is absurd. Wilson was more efficient in almost every category. 

 

Allen improved his second year. A lot QB’s who aren’t outright busts do. But that doesn’t make them franchise QB’s. He needs to continue to improve to be the guy. I think he will.

Edited January 20, 2020 by BringBackOrton

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

My bad. He won the SB in his second season and missed the playoffs once despite having a winning record that year. He's also made it to the second round of the playoffs or further in six of his eight seasons. Either way, I don't like the comparison.   

 

Understood

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Allen made it to the playoffs & nearly pulled off a road upset. Allen is also you get than Wilson was his rookie year. I believe Wilson was 24, and Allen was 23. Allen has a ton of time in front of him. He just needs to improve his decision making, mechanics and accuracy. Oh and learn to slide.

Decision making, mechanics and accuracy huh? So basically everything important..how comforting.

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Decision making, mechanics and accuracy huh? So basically everything important..how comforting.

Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Decision making, mechanics and accuracy huh? So basically everything important..how comforting.

 

Please name all the QB’s about whom you could NOT say the same thing.  You know, all the guys who have it down, and don’t want to improve those things. I’ll wait......

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Please name all the QB’s about whom you could NOT say the same thing.  You know, all the guys who have it down, and don’t want to improve those things. I’ll wait......

If we named the QB’s who did, we’d be naming every bum in the NFL. Which is why it’s a silly comment.