Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[Billl]

Just now, warrior9 said:

Didn't say that...

It doesn't hurt to be surrounded by talent, though.

 

So you think JA is a bottom 7 QB in the NFL because of Passer Rating? is that what i'm gathering?

Give or take a spot or two, yeah.  Sometimes he plays better.  Other times he's worse.  

 

Here is a test.  Rank these QBs from best to worst based on their 2019 regular seasons in your eyes.

 

Carson Wentz

Derek Carr

Pat Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Jared Goff

[warrior9]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Give or take a spot or two, yeah.  Sometimes he plays better.  Other times he's worse.  

 

Here is a test.  Rank these QBs from best to worst based on their 2019 regular seasons in your eyes.

 

Carson Wentz

Derek Carr

Pat Mahomes

Baker Mayfield

Jared Goff

Mahomes, Wentz, Carr, Goff, Mayfield? Maybe switch Wentz and Carr.

 

You gave a top 5 QB, a few middling ones and a horrible QB, that's not really a test?

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[Billl]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

Mahomes, Wentz, Carr, Goff, Mayfield? Maybe switch Wentz and Carr.

QBR agrees with you.

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

And you're just the guy to straighten this madness out, amirite?

 

:

Not just yet. Going to see where things go.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Bangarang said:

Not just yet. Going to see where things go.

 

Waiting with baited breath.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 hours ago, warrior9 said:

That's short sighted.

 

You HAD to play the run against Seattle, you didn't have to against this team. It was a MAJOR focus of that Seattle team which opened up the passing game. Defenses played that team way different than they would this Bills team. Again, it's all in fun speculation. 

 

Again, we'll never know but I don't think many QBs did more with less than Josh this year. 

1) it’s not a coincidence that Lynch’s best years were with Wilson.  Wilson, like many mobile qbs, creates running lanes for their rbs because of their running threat

 

2) people are completely overrating Seattle’s weapons.  Tate had seasons of 300 and 200 yards before Wilson.  Doug Baldwin was such a weapon that’s he wasn’t even drafted.  Rice has one good year before (and after) Wilson.  Most of these guys are good because of Wilson.

 

3) Wilson was a 70% passer in the Big 10.  If he was a couple inches taller, he may have been 1 overall.  I was slow to appreciate his greatness but he is a top 5 qb and has been pretty much since he started.

 

as a guy who once found stats to compare Losman and Favre, it’s fun to do.  Allen’s stat also matchup really close to Mitchell and he had worse passing stats than Bortles as a second year player. So it’s all in who you choose to compare him too.  Based on their past, Wilson was a lot surer of a bet than Allen.  But Allen did show improvement but it’s a complete guess whether he is closer to Wilson or Mitchell/ Bortles at this point. 

[Orlando Tim]

I am blown away by those who are dogging JA for this season. He was 10-5 in games he played the majority of and his defense and special teams scored 0 TDs for us that mattered. Is he a world beater right now? Obviously not, but bad QBs do not win 10 games in a year without a dominant D or an extreme amount of luck and we had a great D but  not dominant and most of luck was avoiding Turnovers. 

[Billy Claude]

There was a whole thread about how lucky the Bills were:

 

(1) A historically weak schedule

(2) Lots of missed field goals by opponents

(3) Very few injuries

(4) Played a lot of backup qbs or qbs that were soon to be benched

(5) Only four out of 14 of Allen's fumbles were lost -- the expected rate is 45% of qb fumbles are lost.

 

The Bills had a very good season but to say that were not lucky doesn't seem reasonable. Similary Allen showed a lot of improvement and a lot of promise but to say he was as good as Wilson in year 2 doesn't make a lot of sense.

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) it’s not a coincidence that Lynch’s best years were with Wilson.  Wilson, like many mobile qbs, creates running lanes for their rbs because of their running threat

 

2) people are completely overrating Seattle’s weapons.  Tate had seasons of 300 and 200 yards before Wilson.  Doug Baldwin was such a weapon that’s he wasn’t even drafted.  Rice has one good year before (and after) Wilson.  Most of these guys are good because of Wilson.

 

3) Wilson was a 70% passer in the Big 10.  If he was a couple inches taller, he may have been 1 overall.  I was slow to appreciate his greatness but he is a top 5 qb and has been pretty much since he started.

 

as a guy who once found stats to compare Losman and Favre, it’s fun to do.  Allen’s stat also matchup really close to Mitchell and he had worse passing stats than Bortles as a second year player. So it’s all in who you choose to compare him too.  Based on their past, Wilson was a lot surer of a bet than Allen.  But Allen did show improvement but it’s a complete guess whether he is closer to Wilson or Mitchell/ Bortles at this point. 

 

I was going to write something until I read your post. Your post mirrors my thoughts perfectly. Wilson made those players great. His YPA was very high and he knew how to command the field. He's not a Mahomes, he's a master of consistency.

 

The biggest difference isn't the stats, it's the demeanor. Wilson is as cool as a cucumber from the 1st quarter to the end. When he rushes he's not wild, he's calculated. He's highly accurate.

 

Allen and Wilson are 2 different players. I still think Allen will be a good player, but I'm not sure he'll reach his potential. The game in Dallas told me he can do it.

Edited January 16, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

A percentage is a percentage.  4.3% better.  63.1% - 58.8% = 4.3%

 

I don't think taking a ratio of two percentages is appropriate. 

 

But even if you wish to make a mathematical argument for it, we still get to the claim that 7.3% difference in the ratio of completion percentage is significantly better, but 6.25% difference in rush yards is not much different.

 

 

What about all the other stats? Wilson was significantly better across the board.

 

It makes no sense to compare one of the best QBs in the NFL in 2013 to one of the worst in 2019 and claim they were similar.

4 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

What you failed to mention is the total yards per game are very close. In 2013 had Seattle - 339.0, this year the Bills had 330.2, an 8.8 yard difference. In 2013 Seattle averaged 136.8 yards rushing a game, this year the Bills averaged 128.4 yards, a 8.4 yard difference. You're going through all this trouble for a net gain of .4 yards passing a game?

 

Seattle's defense was not only good, they had play makers, fielding 3 First Team ALL-Pros. Seattle led the NFL(By a good margin) with 28 INTs & had 18 Fumble Recoveries for a total of 46 takeaways. The Bills this year had 14 INTs & 9 Fumble Recoveries for a total of 23 takeaways. That year Seattle's defense cause twice the turnovers as the Bills defense this year and they returned 4 of those for TDs. Seems that Seattle's defense did a better job at getting big plays and setting the offense up with good field position & scored some points in the process.

 

This is why I'm looking at averages. I don't really care about totals.

 

Allen threw for 6.7 YPA this year (25th in the NFL).

 

In 2013, Wilson threw for 8.2 YPA (4th in the NFL). 

 

The yards were similar, but Seattle's passing offense was significantly more efficient than ours was this year. They threw the ball less, for more yards. 

[Billl]

37 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

What about all the other stats? Wilson was significantly better across the board.

 

It makes no sense to compare one of the best QBs in the NFL in 2013 to one of the worst in 2019 and claim they were similar.

This entire conversation is silly.  The Seahawks gave Matt Flynn a huge contract to be their starter.  Russell Wilson, despite being a third round pick, balled out so hard that he beat out Flynn in training camp, won Rookie of the Year, and Flynn threw a total of 9 passes all year in mop up duty.  He wasn’t even under consideration to be anything more than a backup coming into camp, but he was so good that they forced Carroll to start him instead of their prized free agent QB.  By the end of his second season, he was widely considered to be an elite QB.  There were plenty of people who didn’t think he was going to amount to anything in the league due to his height, but two years into his career, the doubters had seen the truth.  There was simply no denying his productivity. 
 

Allen didn’t do any of those things.  He became the starter after Nathan Peterman walked out to midfield, dropped his pants, and pinched fresh biscuits all over the field.  He then proceeded to do pretty much what most people thought he would do.  He made some electric plays with his athleticism but missed way too many throws and made too many poor decisions.  A year layer, he’s cleaned up some of these issues, but he’s still got a long, long way to go.

 

Now he may go on to greatness, but his career arc to this point doesn’t even bear a passing resemblance to Wilson’s.  If he does become great, he’s going to be the exception to the rule that people point to 20 years from now when trying to convince themselves that their underperforming young QB is about to bust out instead of just bust.  They’ll talk about him the way Allen’s defenders point to Drew Brees.  They won’t compare that young QB to EJ Manuel or Geno Smith or Mitch Trubisky even though that’s what QBs with bottom tier QBRs typically become.  They’ll twist the numbers.  They’ll say things like “completion percentage isn’t indicative of accuracy” and “accuracy and precision are different things” and “he’s tied for 7th most third down conversions in home games played on cloudy days” and all that noise.  They’ll hope that he defies all odds just like Josh Allen did way back when, but the truth is that the QB 20 years from now who spends his first two seasons at the bottom of nearly every statistical category probably just isn’t ever going to be great.

Edited January 16, 2020 by Billl

[warrior9]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I was going to write something until I read your post. Your post mirrors my thoughts perfectly. Wilson made those players great. His YPA was very high and he knew how to command the field. He's not a Mahomes, he's a master of consistency.

 

The biggest difference isn't the stats, it's the demeanor. Wilson is as cool as a cucumber from the 1st quarter to the end. When he rushes he's not wild, he's calculated. He's highly accurate.

 

Allen and Wilson are 2 different players. I still think Allen will be a good player, but I'm not sure he'll reach his potential. The game in Dallas told me he can do it.

Wilson did not make Marshawn or Golden Tate or Zach Miller great. 
 

marshawn was always very good. Golden Tate left Seattle and has been great, still. Zach Miller went to Seattle after being a second round draft pick. 

2 hours ago, Billl said:

QBR agrees with you.

Yeah, that was the a very easy and stretched out talent pool lol

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) it’s not a coincidence that Lynch’s best years were with Wilson.  Wilson, like many mobile qbs, creates running lanes for their rbs because of their running threat

 

Lynch had a 1200 yd season in Seattle the year before Wilson was drafted, with who? at QB

He had his best season Wilson's rookie year - which was also the year of his maximal # of attempts.  But I believe the OL and the system had a lot to do with it, and that 1200+ yd season in 2011 shows it.

 

Quote

2) people are completely overrating Seattle’s weapons.  Tate had seasons of 300 and 200 yards before Wilson.  Doug Baldwin was such a weapon that’s he wasn’t even drafted.  Rice has one good year before (and after) Wilson.  Most of these guys are good because of Wilson.

 

Tate didn't play that much his rookie season and had Tarvaris Jackson (playing with a torn pec) and Charlie Whitehurst at QB his second year.

He had a 1300 yd season and two 1000+ seasons after leaving Seattle, so I don't really think you can argue he was "good because of Wilson".  Certainly he was better with Wilson throwing to him than with Charlie Whitehurst or Tarvaris Jackson throwing to him because Wilson is a better passer.

 

I don't know what you mean by Rice having "one good year" after Wilson.  Rice was a quality receiver in Minn when Favre still had an arm and was throwing to him.   When Favre's passing abilities tailed off none of Minn's receivers had a good year.  But Rice played out his career then with Seattle, so he didn't have any year after Wilson.

 

The point is these guys were quality WR who put up good numbers either before or after Wilson, as long as they had a decent QB throwing to them.  So I don't see how you can argue they are "good because of Wilson".

 

Quote

3) Wilson was a 70% passer in the Big 10.  If he was a couple inches taller, he may have been 1 overall.  I was slow to appreciate his greatness but he is a top 5 qb and has been pretty much since he started.

 

So this is an interesting point.  Wilson had a single year passing for >70% completions at Wisconsin.  He had 3 years passing for 54.5, 59.3, and 58.4% at North Carolina State.

It's almost like, IDK, he spent a year in Wisconsin polishing his craft before being drafted or something.  Sort of like a "pre-rookie-year"

 

Quote

But Allen did show improvement but it’s a complete guess whether he is closer to Wilson or Mitchell/ Bortles at this point. 

 

With this, as previously stated, I completely agree.

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

What about all the other stats? Wilson was significantly better across the board.

 

The point is, you don't get to claim Wilson is 10-20% better across the board but the better run game made no difference when actually the difference is about the same.

 

Well, I suppose you can, you just did, but it's rather disingenuous and puts you deeper in a "falling credibility" zone.

 

[unclepete]

Compare their college careers

[Mr. WEO]

Why not a thread comparing JA to Roger Staubachs 7th season?

 

I mean....right?

[Patrick Duffy]

52 minutes ago, Billl said:

This entire conversation is silly.  The Seahawks gave Matt Flynn a huge contract to be their starter.  Russell Wilson, despite being a third round pick, balled out so hard that he beat out Flynn in training camp, won Rookie of the Year, and Flynn threw a total of 9 passes all year in mop up duty.  He wasn’t even under consideration to be anything more than a backup coming into camp, but he was so good that they forced Carroll to start him instead of their prized free agent QB.  By the end of his second season, he was widely considered to be an elite QB.  There were plenty of people who didn’t think he was going to amount to anything in the league due to his height, but two years into his career, the doubters had seen the truth.  There was simply no denying his productivity. 
 

Allen didn’t do any of those things.  He became the starter after Nathan Peterman walked out to midfield, dropped his pants, and pinched fresh biscuits all over the field.  He then proceeded to do pretty much what most people thought he would do.  He made some electric plays with his athleticism but missed way too many throws and made too many poor decisions.  A year layer, he’s cleaned up some of these issues, but he’s still got a long, long way to go.

 

Now he may go on to greatness, but his career arc to this point doesn’t even bear a passing resemblance to Wilson’s.  If he does become great, he’s going to be the exception to the rule that people point to 20 years from now when trying to convince themselves that their underperforming young QB is about to bust out instead of just bust.  They’ll talk about him the way Allen’s defenders point to Drew Brees.  They won’t compare that young QB to EJ Manuel or Geno Smith or Mitch Trubisky even though that’s what QBs with bottom tier QBRs typically become.  They’ll twist the numbers.  They’ll say things like “completion percentage isn’t indicative of accuracy” and “accuracy and precision are different things” and “he’s tied for 7th most third down conversions in home games played on cloudy days” and all that noise.  They’ll hope that he defies all odds just like Josh Allen did way back when, but the truth is that the QB 20 years from now who spends his first two seasons at the bottom of nearly every statistical category probably just isn’t ever going to be great.

 Lol, I got a laugh out of the bold. Well written.....

[LSHMEAB]

Based on these metrics, the greatest area of improvement from Allen needs to be YPA. Russ was more than 1.5 better in this category.

 

Josh needs to become more "efficient." That comes with better recognition, better timing, and better ball placement. "Taking what the defense gives" you doesn't necessarily mean the checkdown. Sometimes as the play develops, Josh has a tendency to lock onto his primary target and that leads to a degree of inefficiency.

 

Having said that, he is raw. The hope is that experience will slow things down for him. It goes without saying the Bills need to upgrade the skill position talent. But I said it anyways.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) it’s not a coincidence that Lynch’s best years were with Wilson.  Wilson, like many mobile qbs, creates running lanes for their rbs because of their running threat

 

2) people are completely overrating Seattle’s weapons.  Tate had seasons of 300 and 200 yards before Wilson.  Doug Baldwin was such a weapon that’s he wasn’t even drafted.  Rice has one good year before (and after) Wilson.  Most of these guys are good because of Wilson.

 

3) Wilson was a 70% passer in the Big 10.  If he was a couple inches taller, he may have been 1 overall.  I was slow to appreciate his greatness but he is a top 5 qb and has been pretty much since he started.

 

as a guy who once found stats to compare Losman and Favre, it’s fun to do.  Allen’s stat also matchup really close to Mitchell and he had worse passing stats than Bortles as a second year player. So it’s all in who you choose to compare him too.  Based on their past, Wilson was a lot surer of a bet than Allen.  But Allen did show improvement but it’s a complete guess whether he is closer to Wilson or Mitchell/ Bortles at this point. 

 

To the bolded, if Wilson was so good then why did Tate go from 688 & 898 yards respectively with the 2 seasons with Wilson to 1,331 yards the following year with the Lions? Or 3 out of the 4 seasons after leaving Seattle having 1,000 yard seasons. Seems to me that Wilson was holding him back some. Brown comes here and has his best season ever even though he sat week 17, Beasley comes here and has his second best year ever, missing his career best by 55 yards and also sitting week 17. 

 

Seems to me what Allen lacked, compared to Wilson, was the caliber of TE & RB(Seasoned vets) Wilson had vs a rookie TE & rookie RB. Or a too old veteran RB, who ran out of gas the second half of the year having games where he averaged 1.4, 2.4, 2.5, 4.3, 1.2, 1.5, 1.5, 4.3(Essentially a preseason game) per carry. 6 out of the last 8 games Gore averaged 2.5 yards a carry or less. Once again that doesn't help a young QB out. Lynch was so good teams had to key on him, no one in our backfield scared anyone.

 

Wilson, in college was a sub 60% passer until his 5th season. He redshirted his freshman year, another thing Josh didn't have the luxury of doing. Wilson started for 4 years in college, while Josh only started 2 seasons. He had 2 extra years of experience playing while being a year older before being drafted. Early experience matters when talking QBs. Josh has got 2 more years before he hits 25, the age Wilson was in 2013.

 

Add to that a defense that took pressure off a young QB, the least amount of yards given up, the least amount of points given up, the most caused turnovers, scored 4 TDs that year and were first in expected points contributed by all defense of 129.49 points. The Bills defense finished 4th this year with an expected points contributed by all defense of 39.85 points. An extra 5 points a game sure would've taken pressure off Josh & the offense out this year. Seattle's defense also gave up 1.75 points less per game, so that's almost a full TD better per game than the Bills defense this year. Wilson overall had a better supporting cast around him.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2013/opp.htm

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Billl said:

QBR agrees with you.

 

Try this one:

Watson Rivers Fitzpatrick Rodgers Wilson Wentz

No peeking!

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I am neutral on Daboll but he does seem to be our QB whisper,  Allen has made huge strides under his watch. I feel like if we can get a few more weapons this offense will explode. Allen seems to have a strange fire inside him, I believe in his work ethic and passion to bring this city a championship. He is fueled by the fans on game day and next year I think we will see something special on offense. Allen may have his flaws but he leaves every bit of himself out on that field on game day and the fans and players will rally.