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PFF breaks down Misleading sack numbers pending UFAs for 2020, Phillips is contract potential to be over valued


MAJBobby

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12 hours ago, BillsVet said:

He's not going to accept an AAV equal to what he had this year: 4.5M.  So bank on at least 7M per.  And that's low-balling it.

 

Say Buffalo re-signs him.  They'd have big dollars tied up in two DTs, a 3rd round pick and a top 10 pick.

 

I'm sorry, but this team can find a solid contributor without investing big resources at DT.  McD likes his waves of DT's, but was Buffalo's interior DLine that much better with Phillips?

 

It wasn't, but plenty of people focus on that 10 sacks number and think he's gotta be retained.  Not at the kind of money he'll be looking to make, but working in the Bills favor is that (so far) the DT UFA class looks pretty strong.  

 

Right now (based on average salary on Spotrac), Star Lotulelei is the 14th highest paid DT in the NFL.  Jordan Phillips played out this season at #29.  Ed Oliver's rookie contract puts him at #24.

 

If we hand over $10-11 million per year to Phillips, that puts him just outside the Top 10 for the entire league.  If Phillips is pushing for that much, I do think our front office lets him test free agency and he comes back to the table a little bit disappointed.  But if we hand over $8-9 million per year - which I think is much more realistic - that puts him in the #15-20 range for DTs.  That's not really crazy high.

 

At the end of the day, if we are investing for the 14th, (and let's say) the 17th and 24th highest paid DTs in the league, I don't really think that's a massively huge investment.  Especially when we already know this unit works well together. 

 

 

 

 

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People seem to be having a hard time separating PFF's grades from standard statistics that PFF tracks. In this case, their focus is on pressures; similar to point differential being a better indicator for future wins than current wins, pressures are a better indicator of future sacks than current sacks.

 

This is an objectively good article from PFF and they're right to be at least decently skeptical of Phillips. He had fewer pressures this year than he did in his 0.5 sack season; it's definitely concerning as people seem eager to give him a big contract.

 

I don't think it really makes sense to re-sign him honestly; Oliver is probably better right now/is certainly the one that we want starting moving forwards, and ideally, only one of them would be on the field at a time. So it doesn't really make sense to make Phillips a top 10-15 paid DT to play a part-time role; it just isn't a good use of our cap space.

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