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MR8's Ideal Off-Season


MR8

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7 minutes ago, tcampbell104 said:

do everything they can to try and sign derrick henry

 

I love Henry but he is coming off of a 303 carry season (and a 34 carry playoff game with an other game of likely heavy touches coming) and he is going to command 10 million or more in value with a hefty guarantee. As great as Henry can be I think he is more likely not going to live up to a hefty contract. I think the Bills are better off spending their cap dollars on keeping their own talent and signing a pass rusher or receiver. 

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8 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

Holy god, dude.  This is super long and nerdy- even for a guy that loves punters.  Must've been hours of typing. Go get a hand massage (not from me, although I'm super good at that sort of thing) or something.


Oh, ya know...just one dude casually telling another dude how good he is at hand massages on a football message board. Nothing to see here.

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1 hour ago, Logic said:

Oh, ya know...just one dude casually telling another dude how good he is at hand massages on a football message board. Nothing to see here.

 

I was gonna ask for one....but after reading your post I realized the hand might not the body part being massaged.

 

Nevah Mind...and nevah say TBD is not educational

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We cannot pay Phillips $8M a year based on a single year of production. He likely never has this year again and we already have 2 of the highest paid DTs in the league in Star and Oliver. Yes you read right. Oliver makes $5 million based on where he was picked in the 1st round and is one of the higher paid DTs in the NFL already. We simple CANNOT add a 3rd highly paid DT to the mix and have 3 of the highest paid DTs in the NFL on a single team. Sorry that is very irresponsible in regards to the cap.

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4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I love Henry but he is coming off of a 303 carry season (and a 34 carry playoff game with an other game of likely heavy touches coming) and he is going to command 10 million or more in value with a hefty guarantee. As great as Henry can be I think he is more likely not going to live up to a hefty contract. I think the Bills are better off spending their cap dollars on keeping their own talent and signing a pass rusher or receiver. 

To be fair it’s his only season with a high workload. He didn’t have many carries the last 3 years since they worked others. He’s got another dominant 2 years. That said Tennessee can’t let him leave. They’ll franchise or sign him long term. You can’t let the rushing title winner walk away at a young age after the season he just had. The wear and tear will break him down (probably) but he can go another 2-3 years at a high level 

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18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Sorry to cherry pick a small part of a post you obviously put thought and effort into, but this is very, I would say critically, important: What is your evidence that Morse is not 100% right from his head injuries?

 

This is, IMO, of critical importance given the critical importance of the Center position.

 

 

Please explain the rationale for using PFF ratings to evaluate linemen.  Thanks!

 

He performed statistically worse than previous years.  He was healthy, and that's great, as I have already said replying to another poster, I don't want Morse gone in 2020... not even in 2021, but a man with 6 concussions in 5 years needs to be looked at as a liability for injury.  So I say we draft a C/OG who can start at OG for us (because I don't think the Bills want to move Ford to OG, they loved him at OT and IMHO they'll give him 1 more year) ... but you draft a C/OG, let him play at OG in 2020 to learn the game like Eric Wood did, and then you have options.

 

If Morse stay's healthy you have a starting OG who can play center in a pinch or rotate in as full time starter when Morse's contract is up.  OR he gets hurt and you have his replacement already on your team rather than having to find someone at a position that is very hard to replace.

 

 

As for PFF, it's a solid statistical ranking I know a lot of people don't like it, but I do.  I also look at Joe B's grades on the Athletic and Spain didn't grade out well by his evaluation other, and my own view from watching, which is much less honed than either of the first two said that Spain struggled A LOT in pass protection and his misses caused other miscues on the line. 

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1 hour ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

I appreciate the analysis and there are some good spots on this breakdown, but damn I'm happy you're not the negotiator for contracts. You'd put us in a dead money situation worse than Doug Whaley.

 

Putting up dollar figures for total and term has nothing to do with dead cap... it's all about the contract structure and how you place the guaranteed money. 

 

The way you bury the risk of dead cap is by structuring the deal with all the guaranteed money in the first 2-3 years and only a moderate signing bonus, however you give a nice plump ROSTER bonus in year 1... For example:

 

Here's an example of how you do it with an extension... Signing a player to say $75M for 5 year extension (6 years total)... thats an average salary of $15M with say $27M in guarantees.

 

You give a signing bonus of say $7,500,000, you then offset the rest with guaranteed base salaries in years 1, 2, and or 3... but for this I'll show you how you make it essentially a 3 year deal you can get out after 2...

 

Give a base Salary of $1.285M with your pro-rated Signing bonus, and a ROSTER Bonus in year 1 of $7M.  your cap hit is about $9.785M with a dead cap hit RISK of $27M (guaranteed money including your roster bonus)

 

Year 2 you have a base salary of $11.9M with your pro-rated signing bonus and maybe a workout or roster bonus if you want, but lest say nothing... so your cap hit is $13.4M, however your dead cap Risk in year 2 is now down to $17.215M

 

Year 3, set your base salary at say $12M with your signing bonus, and like year 2 say no other bonuses... your Cap hit is $13.5M... HOWEVER your dead cap to cut him would be just $3,815,000 because you've front loaded the deal you're not in a place where you've upfronted tons of cash, however your CAP RISK is low to dump the player... he's already gotten almost all his guarantees, so you no longer need to account for it.

 

Years 4, 5, and 6 you now can have the base salary wherever you want it, usually a decrease to say $11M and then you kick in some roster and workout bonus money so the player is kept happy as those are similar to bonuses as they're easy to achieve... show up get $500K for being on the team and $100K for working out... cap hit is just your guarantees plus the workout and roster bonuses... however your dead cap is only the remaining signing bonus... so by year 4 it's about $3M, year 5 it would be down to $1.5M and year 6 would be zero.

 

So you're signing a marquee player like say Tre White to a 5 year extension leveraging his last year under contract and you're giving him $75M with 1/3 of it guranteed... however you have an out after year 3 with basically no cap hit compared to the rest of the contract and in the subsequent years the cap hit lessens even more.

 

Since you don't know all of that already, I will say that I am happy you're not the negotiator, as you clearly don't understand the cap or contracts. 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, MR8 said:

 

Putting up dollar figures for total and term has nothing to do with dead cap... it's all about the contract structure and how you place the guaranteed money. 

 

The way you bury the risk of dead cap is by structuring the deal with all the guaranteed money in the first 2-3 years and only a moderate signing bonus, however you give a nice plump ROSTER bonus in year 1... For example:

 

Here's an example of how you do it with an extension... Signing a player to say $75M for 5 year extension (6 years total)... thats an average salary of $15M with say $27M in guarantees.

 

You give a signing bonus of say $7,500,000, you then offset the rest with guaranteed base salaries in years 1, 2, and or 3... but for this I'll show you how you make it essentially a 3 year deal you can get out after 2...

 

Give a base Salary of $1.285M with your pro-rated Signing bonus, and a ROSTER Bonus in year 1 of $7M.  your cap hit is about $9.785M with a dead cap hit RISK of $27M (guaranteed money including your roster bonus)

 

Year 2 you have a base salary of $11.9M with your pro-rated signing bonus and maybe a workout or roster bonus if you want, but lest say nothing... so your cap hit is $13.4M, however your dead cap Risk in year 2 is now down to $17.215M

 

Year 3, set your base salary at say $12M with your signing bonus, and like year 2 say no other bonuses... your Cap hit is $13.5M... HOWEVER your dead cap to cut him would be just $3,815,000 because you've front loaded the deal you're not in a place where you've upfronted tons of cash, however your CAP RISK is low to dump the player... he's already gotten almost all his guarantees, so you no longer need to account for it.

 

Years 4, 5, and 6 you now can have the base salary wherever you want it, usually a decrease to say $11M and then you kick in some roster and workout bonus money so the player is kept happy as those are similar to bonuses as they're easy to achieve... show up get $500K for being on the team and $100K for working out... cap hit is just your guarantees plus the workout and roster bonuses... however your dead cap is only the remaining signing bonus... so by year 4 it's about $3M, year 5 it would be down to $1.5M and year 6 would be zero.

 

So you're signing a marquee player like say Tre White to a 5 year extension leveraging his last year under contract and you're giving him $75M with 1/3 of it guranteed... however you have an out after year 3 with basically no cap hit compared to the rest of the contract and in the subsequent years the cap hit lessens even more.

 

Since you don't know all of that already, I will say that I am happy you're not the negotiator, as you clearly don't understand the cap or contracts. 

 

 

I understand them just fine and I appreciate your concern.

 

The problem is shelling out a 100m contract on 5 years for Yannick. I don't know what your guarantee number is here, but bottom line is you pay for the contract somewhere. Players are all about the guaranteed number these days. That's a ll that matters.

 

If you front load a deal then you sometimes create a scenario where players are holding out or effort completely tails off because their contract drops off.

 

Are you prepared to front load a contract with somewhere around 60-70m in guarantees for Yannick? 

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29 minutes ago, Do The Reich Thing said:

I understand them just fine and I appreciate your concern.

 

The problem is shelling out a 100m contract on 5 years for Yannick. I don't know what your guarantee number is here, but bottom line is you pay for the contract somewhere. Players are all about the guaranteed number these days. That's a ll that matters.

 

If you front load a deal then you sometimes create a scenario where players are holding out or effort completely tails off because their contract drops off.

 

Are you prepared to front load a contract with somewhere around 60-70m in guarantees for Yannick? 

 

Ha ha he's not getting $70M guaranteed... Maybe 50? and yeah I would shell that out...

 

Structure:

$17.5M at signing

 

2020 Cap Hit - $10M base salary (fully guaranteed) + $3.5M Signing Bonus + $10M Roster Bonus = +/- $23.5M Cap hit ... $50M in dead Cap to cut

2021 Cap Hit -  $16.5M base Salary ($12M guaranteed) + $3.5M Signing Bonus = +/- $20M ...$26.5M in dead Cap to cut

2022 Cap Hit - $16.5M base Salary ($8M guaranteed) + $3.5M Signing Bonus = +/- $20M ... $11M in Dead Cap to Cut

2023 Cap Hit - $13.5M  base salary + $3.5M Signing Bonus + $1M Roster Bonus + $1M workout Bonus = +/-  19M... $7M in Dead Cap to cut

2024  Cap Hit - $13M base salary + $3.5M Signing Bonus + $1M Roster Bonus + $1M workout Bonus = +/- 18.5M  ... $3.5M in Dead Cap to cut

 

Yeah it's a big contract, but once you're through the first 2 years you can realize cap savings by cutting him in year 3, and even more in years 4 and 5. 

 

The incentive for him to sign you may ask?  Well he's getting $17.5M at signing plus an additional $10M in year 1 as a roster bonus for making the team (which he obviously will), and his base salary of $10M is also guaranteed to be paid to him all in that first year... so he gets a $17.5M check in FEbruary, a $10M check in September, then 17 game checks totalling $10M... by the end of 2020 he'll have made 37.5M of his money IN CASH.

 

Plus in year 2 he walks away with another BIG chunk of change in cash. You can even make part of that base smaller by converting it to roster bonus rather than "Base salary" so he gets money spread throughout the year rather than waiting from 2020 to the 2021 season to get money. 

 

However you slice it, the incentive for the player is a massive pay day in year 1 with big guaranteed money through year 2 and into 3... by year 4 he still has bench marks of guaranteed money through bonuses and a nice base salary but that's when he may want to re-negotiate the deal... just a part of the game. You also can get out from under his deal in those years if you need/want to. But the point of signing a 100M player is getting a corner stone, so hopefully you won't need or want to do that. 

 

The reason Whaley kept screwing up was he kept doing extensions with big signing bonuses which amortize the money and force big cap hits throughout.  He didnt have space to front load deals, nor did he have cash until the Pegulas came in.  But he structured deals so they were big throughout without the ability to get out from under it without MASSIVE Dead cap hits.

 

On top of that he kicked the can down the road on guys by converting money to bonuses, and extending players to push their cap hits further down the road so they could free up cap "now"... that's not at all what I am proposing... I am proposing the opposite... a deal like what we've been doing where we front load the guarantees making it palatable on the back end. 

Edited by MR8
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2 hours ago, MR8 said:

He performed statistically worse than previous years.  He was healthy, and that's great, as I have already said replying to another poster, I don't want Morse gone in 2020... not even in 2021

 

But performing worse statistically than previous years isn't evidence that he's, as you said, "not 100% right from his head injuries".  A lot of things impact this, including the scheme and who he's playing next to.

 

The first question is what statistics are being used? 

 

Quote

but a man with 6 concussions in 5 years needs to be looked at as a liability for injury.  So I say we draft a C/OG who can start at OG for us (because I don't think the Bills want to move Ford to OG, they loved him at OT and IMHO they'll give him 1 more year) ... but you draft a C/OG, let him play at OG in 2020 to learn the game like Eric Wood did, and then you have options.

 

I'm all in with the idea of drafting a C/OG....I think you're off on the concussions, I think it is 4 in 5 years not 6...it's a concern, though, no doubt...hopefully he's doing some time in that hypobaric chamber on a regular basis. 

 

But again, having had concussions before is a raised risk for slower healing from future concusssions - it's not an indication that as you said, he's "not 100% right from his head injuries".

 

Quote

As for PFF, it's a solid statistical ranking I know a lot of people don't like it, but I do.  I also look at Joe B's grades on the Athletic and Spain didn't grade out well by his evaluation other, and my own view from watching, which is much less honed than either of the first two said that Spain struggled A LOT in pass protection and his misses caused other miscues on the line. 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree then.  PFF puts out some good stuff, but their OL and DL stuff is totally suspect.  For one thing, they are totally guessing on what the assignments were, so their basis for the grade is 100% a guess.  Eric Wood had a good piece on the pitfalls thereoff with some specific examples, for example a play where he was graded by PFF as whiffing.  What happened was 'Cog totally whiffed, Wood tried to block the guy and failed, and it got scored as a failure on Wood - but it was actually scored by the unit as 'Cog's failure.  He pointed out that one year, he was scored as the worst run blocking center in the league, but given a contract extension "and I can promise you that it wasn't because that was our coaches evaluation"   I looked for that Wood piece and didn't find it....will try again later.  It was a really good explanation of why outfits like PFF can't grade OL play well.

 

Joe B's "Athletic" grades have no clarity whatsoever on their basis.

 

Anyway, thanks for looping back on what I ack to be a small point in a long post with a lot of work in it so Kudos for that.

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Still upset about last week's loss and hard to look towards the offseason already.

 

#1 priority for us this offseason I believe is actually for our coaches to do some soul-searching.  Daboll particularly needs to think about this offense.

 

I actually think your offseason looks great, though.

 

WR and fixing our OL are, to me, our 2 biggest priorities.  I think Foster and McKenzie will be back, but I definitely hope we don't see Foster on our active roster next year and I kind of feel the same way about McKenzie, though I think he brings a lot more value to the team.

 

I was listening to Colin Cowturd this morning, and while I generally think he's an idiot, he made a really good point this morning talking about good young WRs.  Right now there are good young WRs in the playoffs who had successful rookie seasons (Metcalf, Samuel, Hollywood Brown, Hardman) and all of them were successful partly because they had QBs who could extend plays with their legs, thus making it so they aren't so rigidly set with route running of "be here at this time!"  The argument by Colin was that this was why N'Keal Harry with Brady didn't have a successful rookie season and why it's time for Brady to retire.

 

We have too  many smurfs on the field at WR.  Duke, in his brief time on the field, demonstrated what Allen and the offense really lacked this year.  I think Williams will compete and has a good chance to be the 4th or 5th WR next year with some offseason work... and he could be a dark horse for making some noise next season... but just looking at the scouting report of the guy you chose in the 1st round, he looks like EXACTLY the type of WR this offense and Allen desperately needs.  I'm a little concerned that his first negatives in his scouting report say "durability" and "gets banged up," though.

 

Now, the thing will be Daboll finding a way to have that big WR (whoever it is) on the field at the same time as Brown and Beasley.

 

Like the offseason, though  :thumbsup:

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MR8,

 

great work!

 

i don't think we will or should spend that kind of money on a RT tho -- one good T seems to be enough for the teams in the playoffs, but pass rush and skill position impact players is an absolute requirement.

 

i think we will draft a T, maybe sign another cheaper guy to compete and hopefully kick ford inside and let spain walk.

 

i like your plan, but i'd want a free agent WR as well as a drafted one, and the one thread on here has me wanting Hooper for 10MM and cutting smith and kroft to cover it (leaving hooper, sweeney and knox).

 

green/cooper, brown, bease w motor and hooper is a nasty base.

 

cooper and brown w hooper and knox and motor for 12 packages is also a scary sight.

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15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

How about we just not use a FB like most NFL teams. Dimarco is not only worthless but takes up a valuable active spot. Maybe he's seeing Pegs Daughter too?

hahah you have a point but I need an excuse to justify my burning desire to see both jonathan taylor and aj dillon in Bils jersey's

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Thanks MR8: agree or disagree, I really/really appreciate these types of well researched, insightful posts. They provide the essential framework for informed discussion on this board.

 

As w others, I'm not yet convinced--but could be swayed--re Ngakoue at the $20m price point. Issues: biggest numbers came v poor pass pro teams; (possible) problem of contain, a huge DL problem this year IMO and...

 

According to the BS being thrown over the interwebs and the football media (BIRM), there are several other viable suitors, along w Jax. Bidding war north of 20?? Not sure.

 

But I'm just being pedantic. Solid, solid work.

 

 

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Wow! You did like a 10,000-word post and managed two feats: your offense did not improve despite the verbage, and you somehow managed to conclude that Lee Smith and Patrick Dimarco actually belong and contribute to the Bills Roster!

 

 

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