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MR8's Ideal Off-Season


MR8

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Alright it's that time again... sadly... the Bills are out of the Playoffs and now we must take stock of what we gained, what we lost, and what we need to do better going forward.

So last year's objective was to add to the offense, and re-stock the D. This year I think it's still very similar. While they made incredible strides on the offensive line compared to 2018, they still have a lot of issues that need to be addressed. Additionally, while Brown and Beasley proved to be great additions, they still need to do more in the WR room to get better. So the 2020's three main objectives are actually the same as 2019:

1) PROTECT OUR QB
2) Add weapons for the Offense
3) Replenish Defensive Depth

We need to lock down the O-Line. Dawkins returned to his rookie form, and could be in line for an extension per Beane saying he wanted to meet with all the guys in their 3rd year. Morse played well, definitely an leaps and bounds improvement over the previous year, but he still isn't 100% right from his head injuries. I would consider looking at C in the draft early but have that kid play OG instead to start so he can get up to NFL speed next to Morse and eventually be his replacement. I said the same thing in 2019 wanting the Bills to draft Erick McCoy, and I still think it.

As I said above, our WR additions were fantastic this year, but we still lack a true #1 WR, and the only way to get that without spending $25+M is to draft and develop a kid. I think that should be a top target this year, and in FA we should be eyeing depth as well.

As for Defense, we need to get deeper, and we're going to need to refill some spots. The more I think about it the more I think we are going to lose Jordan Phillips. In his end of year Presser, Beane said that Phillips had earned the right to test the market, so I think they made their offer, so now they are going to let him walk and see what he's offered and then if he they can work something out int he middle then fine, otherwise he's gone. We do have H. Phillips returning from injury, but DT will still be a need as we run a HEAVY rotation. Sal Cappaccio on WGR was saying that the Bills already have 3 of the top 15 paid 4-3 DTs in the NFL With Star, Oliver, and J. Phillips on his current $4M contract. If he wants $9-10 based on his monster year this year, I just know if they want to commit the resources to 1 position...

I will add more notes to explain my thought processes, but that's a quick and dirty of it all...


MR8’s Ideal Offseason 2020


Cap Figures 2020 - Per OTC

Total Cap Liabilities: $136,006,041
Top 51: $134,963,157
Team Cap Space: $88,531,260
Offense: $70,836,602
Defense: $59,516,555
Special: $4,610,000


All 2020 Free Agents:
 

PLAYER (19) POS. AGE FROM TO 2019 AAV STATUS MARKET VALUE
Jordan Phillips DT 27 BUF TBD $4,500,000 UFA -
Spencer Long C 29 BUF - $4,200,000 CO -
Lorenzo Alexander OLB 37 BUF TBD $3,750,000 UFA -
Kevin Johnson CB 28 BUF TBD $3,000,000 UFA -
Shaq Lawson DE 26 BUF TBD $2,569,744 UFA -
Quinton Spain G 29 BUF TBD $2,050,000 UFA -
LaAdrian Waddle RT 29 BUF TBD $2,000,000 UFA -
Frank Gore RB 37 BUF TBD $2,000,000 UFA -
Julian Stanford OLB 29 BUF TBD $1,500,000 UFA -
Maurice Alexander LB 30 BUF TBD $1,000,000 UFA -
Kurt Coleman FS 32 BUF TBD $930,000 UFA -
Corey Liuget DT 30 BUF TBD $930,000 UFA -
Senorise Perry RB 28 BUF TBD $720,000 UFA -
Isaiah McKenzie WR 25 BUF TBD $600,000 RFA -
Dean Marlowe SS 28 BUF TBD $600,000 RFA -
Jason Croom TE 26 BUF TBD $527,000 ERFA -
Levi Wallace CB 25 BUF TBD $525,000 ERFA -
Robert Foster WR 26 BUF TBD $525,000 ERFA -
Isaac Asiata G 27 BUF TBD - RFA -



FA Re-Sign:

Jordan Phillips (Est Deal 4 Years - $30M)
I know what I said earlier about Phillips costing too much, but I love the guy and his intensity. He plays a very similar position to Oliver, as both are penetrating DTs and I am torn on if I want to spend $8M on a guy who may keep our rookie down on the depth chart. H. Phillips was looking to take over for Star as the year began as it was, so I think he's a lock to be the starter in 2020 and while I would personally cut Star, I don't see it happening. Cutting him only saves $2.4M and they like him from his time in Carolina. So this is a hard one for me, but IF They choose to keep their D-Line roation of Star, Phillips, Phillips, and Oliver together I think this is what it will cost. And while I think thats a crazy amount of money for just DTs, we will have the best interior D-Line in football again in 2020... then in 2021 I see them cutting Star to clear space to keep H. Phillips provided he returns to form.

Kevin Johnson (Est Deal 1 Year - $3M)
Johnson was thrust into a starting spot in the playoffs with the injury to Wallace, and I think he held up well. Johnson has proven to be a valuable rotational CB, and while we ABSOLUTELY need to get better at CB and that's one of my top draft needs, I would try to keep him on a "prove it" deal if possible for at least 1 more year. He played well enough that he may get an offer elsewhere, but I think it would behoove him to re-sign here and move forward in our system. Frankly we need him as we need more CB Depth. Letting him walk creates another hole.... re-sign him and draft a guy early to battle for the #2 CB spot.

Quinton Spain/LaAdrian Waddle
All three of these guys are on my list for the same reason... O-Line is HARD TO FIND. Spain was the weakest link on the O-Line IMO This year and Waddle was never healthy. HOWEVER we need to grow this line, so re-signing our existing pieces to prove it deals AGAIN if possible is something they should do. Since we have some money I would offer Spain a 2 year deal with 2020 guaranteed, but basically all incentives in 2021, Waddle I would offer just to re-sign to 1 year prove it deal. They aren't going to get much else from a different team, but I wouldn't let any of them walk without trying to keep them on the cheap.

Senorise Perry (3 Years Vet Min)
Perry is a core special teamer who serves a role with that unit. I would bring him back on a vet min deal if they can't identify someone who can do what he does but also plays a skill position.

NOTES: Yes I am planning to let Shaq Lawson walk in this off-season plan. Not because I don't like him, but because I plan to go big game hunting in FA for a DE and I don't think they can afford to kick $25M to a DE and re-sign Shaq for the estimated $8M he will want. IMHO Either you keep Shaq and go get a DE or your keep Phillips and go get a DE, you can't pay both of them. So I chose to pay Phillips, but it could easily go the other way.



ERFA Re-Sign:
BACKGOUND: An exclusive rights free agent (ERFA) is any NFL veteran [who reaches the end of his contract] with less than three accrued seasons. A rookie (first year player), second, and third year player each fall into this category.... A player with exclusive rights status may only sign a contract with their original team, if the original team placed the minimum salary tender, typically during the first days following the completion of the Super Bowl through the start of the new league year (mid-March).... Any player who receives a team’s exclusive rights minimum salary tender will not be able to negotiate with another team, and the player must only re-sign with his original team.... If the minimum salary tender is not given or the tender has been withdrawn by the original team to a player with less than three accrued seasons, that player will then be completely free to sign with any team without any penalty or any restrictions.

Levi Wallace (Tender with the plan to sign to multi-year deal)
Talk about a guy who has out played his UDFA status! We still need an upgrade at #2 CB, but letting this guy walk would be a MISTAKE. Get him locked up with an ERFA Tender and let him compete with a highly drafted rookie for 2020.

Robert Foster (Make a Minimum Tender but do not extend him past 2020)
Foster was one of the biggest disappointments on the roster for 2019. His speed and the way he finished 2018 left everyone thinking at the very least he had locked up a role in 2019, with some thinking he could be a #1 WR. All of that fell apart in 2019. He still has a fantastic mix of size and speed, but he's drifting to the bottom of the WR group IMO. They need to get better, and Foster is at high risk of being left behind. I would make him a min tender offer to come back and prove himself, but I wouldn't give him anything more than that. He is striking me more and more of a guy who can't get himself motivated, or cannot understand the playbook, or both.

Jason Croom - I dont want him but he's banging a Pegula so they'll tender him

RFA Re-Sign: Tender rates per Over the Cap: First Round $4,667,000 - Second Round $3,278,000 - Original Round $2,114,000

Isaiah McKenzie (2nd Round Tender)
McKenzie was a 5th round pick, but I think he has more value than that in our Offense, especially since Daboll is most likely coming back for 2020. They love using him all over the field, and as such we should tender him with a 2nd to make sure if anyone wants to steal him away from us, they're paying a premium of a 2nd round pick. I like McKenzie, and in my eyes he should have a role at the very least in 2020. With the cap space we have, we can be a bit frivelous and give him $3.278M on the 2nd round tender this year, and re-evaluate what we want from him in 2021 and beyond.


Extend: (I will circle back for more numbers on this I need to do some research)
This is an interesting situation, with the CBA Set to expire, there is a new rule that teams CANNOT pay a player more than 30% more in 2021 than they made in 2020. Because of this, player who are rolling off their rookie deals in 2021 will need to be re-inked with pay raises in 2020 to balance things out if they are set to make more money. Guys like Milano on SUPER cheap rookie deals are in line for a massive pay bump in 2021, but if there is now new CBA by then, the Bills won't be allowed to pay them that. So they almost need to pay them NOW while they have the money and the wiggle room + time before the CBA expires and they're between a rock and a hard place.

Jon Feliciano - With just 1 year left on his 2 year deal, he has out performed his initial deal. I would extend him for 2 more year and give him more money, he's acting as both the starting OG and back up Center, thats a VERY valuable player to keep around and keep happy.

Tre White - Pick up his option and work on a 6 year extension starting in 2021, but give him a $7M roster bonus in 2020 that won't impact his cap number but adds the the money he is paid allowing us to increase his salary.

Matt Milano - Front load a deal for him in 2020 and 2021 with guarnatees but giving us real cap relief with a lower overall cap number

Release:

Release Trent Murphy (Cap Savings - Approx. $7.2M)
Trent has SIGNIFICANTLY under performed his deal and we need a true pass rushing DE In a bad way. We simply cannot continue to carry his bloated contract AND pay another DE to come in here. Cutting him only costs us about $2.5M in dead space but frees up $7.2M, he needs to be gone and that money needs to be rolled into paying a new DE.


Release Tyler Kroft (Cap Savings - Approx. $5M)
He was hurt ALL THE TIME in Cincy and came here hoping a change of scenery would bring him luck and success. That did not happen, he was hurt most of the off-season and much of the season. When he did play he was largely ineffective, and was out played by 2 rookies. It's time to pull the plug on this experiment and reallocate his cap to re-signing guys or extending players who DID play up to what we want to see from our Bills.

Release Spencer Long (Cap Savings - Approx. $3.5M)
Long was signed to a "Prove it" Deal to come in as a Center, he then kicked over to OG with the thought that he'd be a starting OG and backup C. Then he was out played by Feliciano and the hope was he'd be a swing Guard backup who could also play Center... again he proved he could not do that. This team favors player who are versatile, and Long has proven he is absolutely not. Cutting him saves money we can give to Feliciano. I would explore a trade for LITERALLY anything before just cutting him since the NFL is in desperate need of Offensive linemen. If we can't find a dance partner who'll give us something like a 7th for him I would cut him.

TJ Yeldon (Cap Savings - Approx. $1.65M)
He was almost never active and it was proven they didn't know how to use him anyways. He started out with a case of the fumbles and never worked his way back into the good graces of Daboll. Yeldon doesn't play special teams and is not much of a contributor. I would rather cut him, not bring back Gore and start over building around Singletary.


Trade:

I would trade away any Offensive Linemen we do not want as we get into OTAs and Mini-Camp. I think that is where most of our "Trade Value" exists right now.


Free Agents:
What we plan to do with Ford going forward, if he's an OT or OG will impact Free Agency IMO. There are some great OGs who will be FAs and there are good OTs in the draft, so if he is staying at OT, we need to look for a starting OG to replace Spain as well as OT depth, but if he's moving to OG, we need to look for a starting OT.


Yannick Ngakoue (5 Years $100M)
Yannick is a true pass rusher and should be our #1 target. He turned down a deal from the Jags last off-season for $18M per year because he wanted $20+.... So give the man $20M per year. You can still structure that deal to be team friendly with a massive roster bonus in year 1, and the largest part of the guaranteed money in the first 2 years, and a moderate signing bonus so you aren't amortizing too much to ham string you down the road in dead cap. This is the man you clear Shaq & Murphy off the books for. A pass rush expert at just 25 years old with 8+ sacks in his first 4 years in the league. With our DTs, this man can EAT up QBs... The biggest worry here is Jacksonville came out and said getting him re-signed is their #1 priority, and they can still Franchise or Transition tag him.

If you can't get Yannick, would go HARD after Arik Armstead, but for less money, he's not nearly as proven.

IF FORD GOES TO OG (I think he stays at OT and we draft an OG)
Jack Conklin OT (4 Years - $42M)
Conklin's 4th year option was not picked up by Tenesee but he played very well this year with a 78.2 PFF grade and was solid in both pass protection and run protection for Derek Henry. If he hits the open market as a RT, he will be in demand and may cost more than what I have up there, but if we're kicking Ford inside we should lock up a good young OT to solidify the line for a few years to come.

We undoubtedly need to sign other guys, but right now I haven't looked deep enough to have names of depth player etc.. I'll take a look in the coming weeks and add in later posts.


Draft: (BPA, with a focus on specific needs and strengths of the class. We need a #2 CB, WR, OT, (if we don't sign one), and DE (If we don't sign on))

NOTE: There is no doubt in my mind that the Bills move around in the draft, likely at least 1 trade up, bit I am just mocking with existing picks... some of these guys may require trade ups...


1/22 - Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
2/54 - Jake Hanson, C/OG, Oregon - I think Ford Stays at OT... draft a C replacement for Morse who can start at OG
3/86 - A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
4/118 - Quincy Roche, DE, Temple
5/138 - Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
5/150 - Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut
6/169 - A.J. Dillon, RB/FB, Boston College
6/181 - Cam Brown, OLB, Penn State
6/182 - L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Louisiana Tech


2020 Training Camp Roster - Ish
Obviously some of the bottom roster guys, especially at WR will be cut, this is everyone currently on the Bills Roster as of 1/8/20, as well as the people I named above. It will need tweaking.


Offense
QB: Allen, Barkley, Davis Webb
RB: Devin Singletary, AJ Dillon, Sinorise Perry, Christian Wade
FB: Patrick DiMarco
WR: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Laviska Shenault Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden, Robert Foster, Isaiah McKenzie, Cam Phillips, Duke Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud, Nick Easley
TE: Lee Smith, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeny, Jason Croom, Nate Becker
OT: Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Matt Peart, Ty Nsekhe, LaAdrian Waddle, Victor Salako
OG: Jon Feliciano, Jake Hanson (Eventually move to Center), Quinton Spain, Ike Boettger
? Mitch Morse, Ryan Bates


Defense
CB:Tre,Davious White, AJ Terrell, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Kevin Johnson, L'Jarius Sneed, Cam Lewis
Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson
MLB: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson
OLB: Matt Milano, Julian Stanford, Cam Brown, Tyrel Dodson, Del'Shawn Phillips, Maurice Alexander, Vosean Joseph
DE: Jerry Hughes, Yannick Ngakoue, Darryl Johnson, Jonathan Woodward, Mike Love
DT: Star Lotulelei, Jordan Phillips, Harrison Phillips, Ed Oliver, Vincent Taylor

Special Teams
LS: Reid Ferguson
Kicker: Steven Hauschka
Punter: Corey Bojorquez, Kaare Vedvik
KR/PR: Andre Roberts

What say you?

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1 minute ago, Jay_Fixit said:

If they keep Vedvik, I’ll pay for his jersey if you promise to wear it to games.

 

Maybe change your name on here to Vedvikrules7?

 

I will take that deal!  

 

Vedvik for Punter 2020!!!! Moorman 2.0! 

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10 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

That Morse bit is a really hot take. But you put a lot of work into this, and I respect the hell out of that, so I won't talk smack. 

 

I definitely appreciate you putting Yannick down for $20 plus, since I think that is the minimum of what he will command on the market. 

 

Thanks man, I don't mind it though if you like.  While this is what I think, I'm know not everyone will agree.  Appreciate the respect, but this is a discussion board so we can discuss haha.

 

I will say this, the reason I see a need for a long term C solution is the guy has had 5 known concussions in 4 years.  He was out all of pre-season, and while he stayed healthy all year, you just don't know what will happen with him long term.  You saw the difference when he was in versus when he was out and Feliciano kicked over and Long played... It wasn't the same.

 

While it's great to have an OG who can kick over in a pinch, you don't want to be waiting for that shoe to drop and suddenly you're in a tight spot.  

 

I would draft a C to replace Morse, but not tomorrow, not necessarily in 2022 either... but long term.  Get a guy in there like Hanson who is raw and needs a year at the NFL Level playing OG before he can play center anyways.  Eric Wood played OG his rookie year...

 

So put Hanson there as a starter on the interior where he can learn from Morse... you have 3 years of both of them under contract for him to learn and grow either as an OG or as a C to replace Morse.  And in the event Morse goes down, you now have your long term replacement ready to go.  It's a prudent move with a guy who is injury riddled. Plus it makes our interior better by getting Spain out and Hanson in.  Spain graded out to being our worst Offensive Linemen per PFF both run blocking and pass blocking.  Ford was not far off, but he has tons of upside and I think these coaches want him to play OT badly so they're gonna give him 2020 to sink or swim.

 

Drafting Hanson best case Morse is amazing and Hanson is amazing and you have a decision to make for trading... Worst case you use a pick on an interior linemen you need anyways. I personally see it as win win. 

1 minute ago, Starr Almighty said:

That RB room looks unimpressive. I'd love to let Dimarco take a walk the guy does nothing for the team.

 

Well there are a lot of open spots on the roster in this mock, I'm not going to pretend to know everyone they sign, this is only like 60 guys, they'll still have like 30 more.

 

For RB I would be targeting a "Scatt Back" in FA.  We haven't had that back who can just catch the ball and run with it elusively in a while. Motor did a fine job, and is looking a bit like Freddie Jackson at times, but he still doesn't have the receiving chops freddie had.

 

The pats have made it thier job to collect those underrated RBs who can catch and run in open spaces, I think the Bills need to take a page from that book. We need to get a bruiser for 3/4th down and goal line, but we also need some guys who can make someone miss in open field and get 4-5-6 yards on a quick dump off.

 

Draft A.J. Dillon In the 5th, kid is a battering ram and can also play FB. He can render DiMarco obsolete and play 2 roles, and that still leaves you spots for those scatt back style RBs. DeAndre Washington, Wendell Smallwood, CJ Prosise are all guys I would target (in that order of desire) who shouldn't command a lot on the open market, but fill that role.

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3 minutes ago, MR8 said:

 

Thanks man, I don't mind it though if you like.  While this is what I think, I'm know not everyone will agree.  Appreciate the respect, but this is a discussion board so we can discuss haha.

 

I will say this, the reason I see a need for a long term C solution is the guy has had 5 known concussions in 4 years.  He was out all of pre-season, and while he stayed healthy all year, you just don't know what will happen with him long term.  You saw the difference when he was in versus when he was out and Feliciano kicked over and Long played... It wasn't the same.

 

While it's great to have an OG who can kick over in a pinch, you don't want to be waiting for that shoe to drop and suddenly you're in a tight spot.  

 

I would draft a C to replace Morse, but not tomorrow, not necessarily in 2022 either... but long term.  Get a guy in there like Hanson who is raw and needs a year at the NFL Level playing OG before he can play center anyways.  Eric Wood played OG his rookie year...

 

So put Hanson there as a starter on the interior where he can learn from Morse... you have 3 years of both of them under contract for him to learn and grow either as an OG or as a C to replace Morse.  And in the event Morse goes down, you now have your long term replacement ready to go.  It's a prudent move with a guy who is injury riddled. Plus it makes our interior better by getting Spain out and Hanson in.  Spain graded out to being our worst Offensive Linemen per PFF both run blocking and pass blocking.  Ford was not far off, but he has tons of upside and I think these coaches want him to play OT badly so they're gonna give him 2020 to sink or swim.

 

Drafting Hanson best case Morse is amazing and Hanson is amazing and you have a decision to make for trading... Worst case you use a pick on an interior linemen you need anyways. I personally see it as win win. 

 

Well there are a lot of open spots on the roster in this mock, I'm not going to pretend to know everyone they sign, this is only like 60 guys, they'll still have like 30 more.

 

For RB I would be targeting a "Scatt Back" in FA.  We haven't had that back who can just catch the ball and run with it elusively in a while. Motor did a fine job, and is looking a bit like Freddie Jackson at times, but he still doesn't have the receiving chops freddie had.

 

The pats have made it thier job to collect those underrated RBs who can catch and run in open spaces, I think the Bills need to take a page from that book. We need to get a bruiser for 3/4th down and goal line, but we also need some guys who can make someone miss in open field and get 4-5-6 yards on a quick dump off.

 

Draft A.J. Dillon In the 5th, kid is a battering ram and can also play FB. He can render DiMarco obsolete and play 2 roles, and that still leaves you spots for those scatt back style RBs. DeAndre Washington, Wendell Smallwood, CJ Prosise are all guys I would target (in that order of desire) who shouldn't command a lot on the open market, but fill that role.

That's exactly what Yeldon does but the staff refused to put him on the field.

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8 minutes ago, Starr Almighty said:

That's exactly what Yeldon does but the staff refused to put him on the field.

 

It was always a trust issue. Anyone else remember Yeldon's fumbles in the preseason? Singeltary's when he moved into the #1 role? Gore got the ball when the staff wanted to play it safe.  "Refuse" is a strong word there.  

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I like it.
 

They need to target 2-3 above average starters in FA so they can go BPA in the draft. I really like Conklin and Yannick and don’t mind spending the money because there is plenty of cap space now and in the future. Don’t listen to the barrage of “we need to sign our own guys!” Post you’re about to receive. there is plenty of money coming free in the next few years (Hughes, Star etc)

 

Some other ideas for free agency I’m thinking about:

 

AJ Green - they could give him a 1-2 year deal and overpay/give guarantees. Draft WR this year and next to replace him and Brown down the line. 
 

Derrick Henry - I never thought I’d say this about a RB but just today I’m thinking he may be a good signing. He’s going to command a lot of money but he’s a unique player and Belicheck kryptonite. I’m not saying give him Zeke money, but look a lot Zekes contract  on spotrac and notice they can technically get out after 3 years with relatively little dead cap. Bills could do something similar with Henry. 

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I am cool with all of that, minus giving yannick 100 million. We do need some pass rush but he is nowhere near 100 million dollar man. I know he can get that in free agency but yikes I hope it’s not us. His numbers outside of 2017 do not scream up and comer 20 million a year for me. I went through his stats this season and tried to rewatch some Jag games to see why he is so hyped on here. I can’t see it. He’s invisible in the games I looked at. (Denver, Atlanta, and Tampa were the only ones I could see most of) 

Im no professional evaluator but what I seen is a guy who screams off the edge and is mostly just pushed 5 yards past the pocket and struggles to ever make an inside move. Similar to Hughes of old if he can’t come all the way around to get the quarterback there’s a giant pocket created to step up into for the quarterback to throw unless the DT is penetrating in that area. I am hopeful of a draft pick to make a pass rushing impact. 
Just because he’s the top rated rusher doesn’t always mean it’s a good move. They know they have to address it and I expect they will. Maybe he’s the guy, just not someone I would personally target for that much 

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I agree with most of what your wrote, at least from the approach aspect.  Difference of opinion on a few players, but agree for the most part.  I would like to see them double dip at WR.  If somehow Amari Cooper walks, we need to go all in on him.  Kind of had a down year, but that whole team was off.  The culture there was all screwed up.  He's a rare talent, that doesn't possess the diva trait that most WR's have.  The same thing with AJ Green, except he's older and injured.  If we sign a guy like Green, we still have to draft his replacement, which also serves as insurance policy against injury.  Also need a complementary battering ram to Singletary.  Still a lot of work to do on offense.

 

          

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18 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

It was always a trust issue. Anyone else remember Yeldon's fumbles in the preseason? Singeltary's when he moved into the #1 role? Gore got the ball when the staff wanted to play it safe.  "Refuse" is a strong word there.  

I understand what you are saying but you don't bench someone the entire season because of a preseason fumble. He looked ok coming off the bench vs the Jets. What's the point of bringing him in? He was more effective on hitting the edge than Gore was.

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1 hour ago, MR8 said:


Alright it's that time again... sadly... the Bills are out of the Playoffs and now we must take stock of what we gained, what we lost, and what we need to do better going forward.

So last year's objective was to add to the offense, and re-stock the D. This year I think it's still very similar. While they made incredible strides on the offensive line compared to 2018, they still have a lot of issues that need to be addressed. Additionally, while Brown and Beasley proved to be great additions, they still need to do more in the WR room to get better. So the 2020's three main objectives are actually the same as 2019:

1) PROTECT OUR QB
2) Add weapons for the Offense
3) Replenish Defensive Depth

We need to lock down the O-Line. Dawkins returned to his rookie form, and could be in line for an extension per Beane saying he wanted to meet with all the guys in their 3rd year. Morse played well, definitely an leaps and bounds improvement over the previous year, but he still isn't 100% right from his head injuries. I would consider looking at C in the draft early but have that kid play OG instead to start so he can get up to NFL speed next to Morse and eventually be his replacement. I said the same thing in 2019 wanting the Bills to draft Erick McCoy, and I still think it.

As I said above, our WR additions were fantastic this year, but we still lack a true #1 WR, and the only way to get that without spending $25+M is to draft and develop a kid. I think that should be a top target this year, and in FA we should be eyeing depth as well.

As for Defense, we need to get deeper, and we're going to need to refill some spots. The more I think about it the more I think we are going to lose Jordan Phillips. In his end of year Presser, Beane said that Phillips had earned the right to test the market, so I think they made their offer, so now they are going to let him walk and see what he's offered and then if he they can work something out int he middle then fine, otherwise he's gone. We do have H. Phillips returning from injury, but DT will still be a need as we run a HEAVY rotation. Sal Cappaccio on WGR was saying that the Bills already have 3 of the top 15 paid 4-3 DTs in the NFL With Star, Oliver, and J. Phillips on his current $4M contract. If he wants $9-10 based on his monster year this year, I just know if they want to commit the resources to 1 position...

I will add more notes to explain my thought processes, but that's a quick and dirty of it all...


MR8’s Ideal Offseason 2020


Cap Figures 2020 - Per OTC

Total Cap Liabilities: $136,006,041
Top 51: $134,963,157
Team Cap Space: $88,531,260
Offense: $70,836,602
Defense: $59,516,555
Special: $4,610,000


All 2020 Free Agents:
 

PLAYER (19) POS. AGE FROM TO 2019 AAV STATUS MARKET VALUE
Jordan Phillips DT 27 BUF TBD $4,500,000 UFA -
Spencer Long C 29 BUF - $4,200,000 CO -
Lorenzo Alexander OLB 37 BUF TBD $3,750,000 UFA -
Kevin Johnson CB 28 BUF TBD $3,000,000 UFA -
Shaq Lawson DE 26 BUF TBD $2,569,744 UFA -
Quinton Spain G 29 BUF TBD $2,050,000 UFA -
LaAdrian Waddle RT 29 BUF TBD $2,000,000 UFA -
Frank Gore RB 37 BUF TBD $2,000,000 UFA -
Julian Stanford OLB 29 BUF TBD $1,500,000 UFA -
Maurice Alexander LB 30 BUF TBD $1,000,000 UFA -
Kurt Coleman FS 32 BUF TBD $930,000 UFA -
Corey Liuget DT 30 BUF TBD $930,000 UFA -
Senorise Perry RB 28 BUF TBD $720,000 UFA -
Isaiah McKenzie WR 25 BUF TBD $600,000 RFA -
Dean Marlowe SS 28 BUF TBD $600,000 RFA -
Jason Croom TE 26 BUF TBD $527,000 ERFA -
Levi Wallace CB 25 BUF TBD $525,000 ERFA -
Robert Foster WR 26 BUF TBD $525,000 ERFA -
Isaac Asiata G 27 BUF TBD - RFA -



FA Re-Sign:

Jordan Phillips (Est Deal 4 Years - $30M)
I know what I said earlier about Phillips costing too much, but I love the guy and his intensity. He plays a very similar position to Oliver, as both are penetrating DTs and I am torn on if I want to spend $8M on a guy who may keep our rookie down on the depth chart. H. Phillips was looking to take over for Star as the year began as it was, so I think he's a lock to be the starter in 2020 and while I would personally cut Star, I don't see it happening. Cutting him only saves $2.4M and they like him from his time in Carolina. So this is a hard one for me, but IF They choose to keep their D-Line roation of Star, Phillips, Phillips, and Oliver together I think this is what it will cost. And while I think thats a crazy amount of money for just DTs, we will have the best interior D-Line in football again in 2020... then in 2021 I see them cutting Star to clear space to keep H. Phillips provided he returns to form.

Kevin Johnson (Est Deal 1 Year - $3M)
Johnson was thrust into a starting spot in the playoffs with the injury to Wallace, and I think he held up well. Johnson has proven to be a valuable rotational CB, and while we ABSOLUTELY need to get better at CB and that's one of my top draft needs, I would try to keep him on a "prove it" deal if possible for at least 1 more year. He played well enough that he may get an offer elsewhere, but I think it would behoove him to re-sign here and move forward in our system. Frankly we need him as we need more CB Depth. Letting him walk creates another hole.... re-sign him and draft a guy early to battle for the #2 CB spot.

Quinton Spain/LaAdrian Waddle
All three of these guys are on my list for the same reason... O-Line is HARD TO FIND. Spain was the weakest link on the O-Line IMO This year and Waddle was never healthy. HOWEVER we need to grow this line, so re-signing our existing pieces to prove it deals AGAIN if possible is something they should do. Since we have some money I would offer Spain a 2 year deal with 2020 guaranteed, but basically all incentives in 2021, Waddle I would offer just to re-sign to 1 year prove it deal. They aren't going to get much else from a different team, but I wouldn't let any of them walk without trying to keep them on the cheap.

Senorise Perry (3 Years Vet Min)
Perry is a core special teamer who serves a role with that unit. I would bring him back on a vet min deal if they can't identify someone who can do what he does but also plays a skill position.

NOTES: Yes I am planning to let Shaq Lawson walk in this off-season plan. Not because I don't like him, but because I plan to go big game hunting in FA for a DE and I don't think they can afford to kick $25M to a DE and re-sign Shaq for the estimated $8M he will want. IMHO Either you keep Shaq and go get a DE or your keep Phillips and go get a DE, you can't pay both of them. So I chose to pay Phillips, but it could easily go the other way.



ERFA Re-Sign:
BACKGOUND: An exclusive rights free agent (ERFA) is any NFL veteran [who reaches the end of his contract] with less than three accrued seasons. A rookie (first year player), second, and third year player each fall into this category.... A player with exclusive rights status may only sign a contract with their original team, if the original team placed the minimum salary tender, typically during the first days following the completion of the Super Bowl through the start of the new league year (mid-March).... Any player who receives a team’s exclusive rights minimum salary tender will not be able to negotiate with another team, and the player must only re-sign with his original team.... If the minimum salary tender is not given or the tender has been withdrawn by the original team to a player with less than three accrued seasons, that player will then be completely free to sign with any team without any penalty or any restrictions.

Levi Wallace (Tender with the plan to sign to multi-year deal)
Talk about a guy who has out played his UDFA status! We still need an upgrade at #2 CB, but letting this guy walk would be a MISTAKE. Get him locked up with an ERFA Tender and let him compete with a highly drafted rookie for 2020.

Robert Foster (Make a Minimum Tender but do not extend him past 2020)
Foster was one of the biggest disappointments on the roster for 2019. His speed and the way he finished 2018 left everyone thinking at the very least he had locked up a role in 2019, with some thinking he could be a #1 WR. All of that fell apart in 2019. He still has a fantastic mix of size and speed, but he's drifting to the bottom of the WR group IMO. They need to get better, and Foster is at high risk of being left behind. I would make him a min tender offer to come back and prove himself, but I wouldn't give him anything more than that. He is striking me more and more of a guy who can't get himself motivated, or cannot understand the playbook, or both.

Jason Croom - I dont want him but he's banging a Pegula so they'll tender him

RFA Re-Sign: Tender rates per Over the Cap: First Round $4,667,000 - Second Round $3,278,000 - Original Round $2,114,000

Isaiah McKenzie (2nd Round Tender)
McKenzie was a 5th round pick, but I think he has more value than that in our Offense, especially since Daboll is most likely coming back for 2020. They love using him all over the field, and as such we should tender him with a 2nd to make sure if anyone wants to steal him away from us, they're paying a premium of a 2nd round pick. I like McKenzie, and in my eyes he should have a role at the very least in 2020. With the cap space we have, we can be a bit frivelous and give him $3.278M on the 2nd round tender this year, and re-evaluate what we want from him in 2021 and beyond.


Extend: (I will circle back for more numbers on this I need to do some research)
This is an interesting situation, with the CBA Set to expire, there is a new rule that teams CANNOT pay a player more than 30% more in 2021 than they made in 2020. Because of this, player who are rolling off their rookie deals in 2021 will need to be re-inked with pay raises in 2020 to balance things out if they are set to make more money. Guys like Milano on SUPER cheap rookie deals are in line for a massive pay bump in 2021, but if there is now new CBA by then, the Bills won't be allowed to pay them that. So they almost need to pay them NOW while they have the money and the wiggle room + time before the CBA expires and they're between a rock and a hard place.

Jon Feliciano - With just 1 year left on his 2 year deal, he has out performed his initial deal. I would extend him for 2 more year and give him more money, he's acting as both the starting OG and back up Center, thats a VERY valuable player to keep around and keep happy.

Tre White - Pick up his option and work on a 6 year extension starting in 2021, but give him a $7M roster bonus in 2020 that won't impact his cap number but adds the the money he is paid allowing us to increase his salary.

Matt Milano - Front load a deal for him in 2020 and 2021 with guarnatees but giving us real cap relief with a lower overall cap number

Release:

Release Trent Murphy (Cap Savings - Approx. $7.2M)
Trent has SIGNIFICANTLY under performed his deal and we need a true pass rushing DE In a bad way. We simply cannot continue to carry his bloated contract AND pay another DE to come in here. Cutting him only costs us about $2.5M in dead space but frees up $7.2M, he needs to be gone and that money needs to be rolled into paying a new DE.


Release Tyler Kroft (Cap Savings - Approx. $5M)
He was hurt ALL THE TIME in Cincy and came here hoping a change of scenery would bring him luck and success. That did not happen, he was hurt most of the off-season and much of the season. When he did play he was largely ineffective, and was out played by 2 rookies. It's time to pull the plug on this experiment and reallocate his cap to re-signing guys or extending players who DID play up to what we want to see from our Bills.

Release Spencer Long (Cap Savings - Approx. $3.5M)
Long was signed to a "Prove it" Deal to come in as a Center, he then kicked over to OG with the thought that he'd be a starting OG and backup C. Then he was out played by Feliciano and the hope was he'd be a swing Guard backup who could also play Center... again he proved he could not do that. This team favors player who are versatile, and Long has proven he is absolutely not. Cutting him saves money we can give to Feliciano. I would explore a trade for LITERALLY anything before just cutting him since the NFL is in desperate need of Offensive linemen. If we can't find a dance partner who'll give us something like a 7th for him I would cut him.

TJ Yeldon (Cap Savings - Approx. $1.65M)
He was almost never active and it was proven they didn't know how to use him anyways. He started out with a case of the fumbles and never worked his way back into the good graces of Daboll. Yeldon doesn't play special teams and is not much of a contributor. I would rather cut him, not bring back Gore and start over building around Singletary.


Trade:

I would trade away any Offensive Linemen we do not want as we get into OTAs and Mini-Camp. I think that is where most of our "Trade Value" exists right now.


Free Agents:
What we plan to do with Ford going forward, if he's an OT or OG will impact Free Agency IMO. There are some great OGs who will be FAs and there are good OTs in the draft, so if he is staying at OT, we need to look for a starting OG to replace Spain as well as OT depth, but if he's moving to OG, we need to look for a starting OT.


Yannick Ngakoue (5 Years $100M)
Yannick is a true pass rusher and should be our #1 target. He turned down a deal from the Jags last off-season for $18M per year because he wanted $20+.... So give the man $20M per year. You can still structure that deal to be team friendly with a massive roster bonus in year 1, and the largest part of the guaranteed money in the first 2 years, and a moderate signing bonus so you aren't amortizing too much to ham string you down the road in dead cap. This is the man you clear Shaq & Murphy off the books for. A pass rush expert at just 25 years old with 8+ sacks in his first 4 years in the league. With our DTs, this man can EAT up QBs... The biggest worry here is Jacksonville came out and said getting him re-signed is their #1 priority, and they can still Franchise or Transition tag him.

If you can't get Yannick, would go HARD after Arik Armstead, but for less money, he's not nearly as proven.

IF FORD GOES TO OG (I think he stays at OT and we draft an OG)
Jack Conklin OT (4 Years - $42M)
Conklin's 4th year option was not picked up by Tenesee but he played very well this year with a 78.2 PFF grade and was solid in both pass protection and run protection for Derek Henry. If he hits the open market as a RT, he will be in demand and may cost more than what I have up there, but if we're kicking Ford inside we should lock up a good young OT to solidify the line for a few years to come.

We undoubtedly need to sign other guys, but right now I haven't looked deep enough to have names of depth player etc.. I'll take a look in the coming weeks and add in later posts.


Draft: (BPA, with a focus on specific needs and strengths of the class. We need a #2 CB, WR, OT, (if we don't sign one), and DE (If we don't sign on))

NOTE: There is no doubt in my mind that the Bills move around in the draft, likely at least 1 trade up, bit I am just mocking with existing picks... some of these guys may require trade ups...


1/22 - Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
2/54 - Jake Hanson, C/OG, Oregon - I think Ford Stays at OT... draft a C replacement for Morse who can start at OG
3/86 - A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
4/118 - Quincy Roche, DE, Temple
5/138 - Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
5/150 - Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut
6/169 - A.J. Dillon, RB/FB, Boston College
6/181 - Cam Brown, OLB, Penn State
6/182 - L'Jarius Sneed, CB, Louisiana Tech


2020 Training Camp Roster - Ish
Obviously some of the bottom roster guys, especially at WR will be cut, this is everyone currently on the Bills Roster as of 1/8/20, as well as the people I named above. It will need tweaking.


Offense
QB: Allen, Barkley, Davis Webb
RB: Devin Singletary, AJ Dillon, Sinorise Perry, Christian Wade
FB: Patrick DiMarco
WR: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Laviska Shenault Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden, Robert Foster, Isaiah McKenzie, Cam Phillips, Duke Williams, Ray-Ray McCloud, Nick Easley
TE: Lee Smith, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeny, Jason Croom, Nate Becker
OT: Dion Dawkins, Cody Ford, Matt Peart, Ty Nsekhe, LaAdrian Waddle, Victor Salako
OG: Jon Feliciano, Jake Hanson (Eventually move to Center), Quinton Spain, Ike Boettger
? Mitch Morse, Ryan Bates


Defense
CB:Tre,Davious White, AJ Terrell, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Kevin Johnson, L'Jarius Sneed, Cam Lewis
Safety: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson
MLB: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson
OLB: Matt Milano, Julian Stanford, Cam Brown, Tyrel Dodson, Del'Shawn Phillips, Maurice Alexander, Vosean Joseph
DE: Jerry Hughes, Yannick Ngakoue, Darryl Johnson, Jonathan Woodward, Mike Love
DT: Star Lotulelei, Jordan Phillips, Harrison Phillips, Ed Oliver, Vincent Taylor

Special Teams
LS: Reid Ferguson
Kicker: Steven Hauschka
Punter: Corey Bojorquez, Kaare Vedvik
KR/PR: Andre Roberts

What say you?

 

I love the Yannick addition, but I fear the Jags will tag him, etc. 

 

That said, we absolutley need a TE in FA.  Getting Hooper or Hunter will provide two great Big targets for Allen.  That quickly changes the offensive dynamic.  I'd also get Conklin, and put Ford at OG.  Ford is not a OT.   Speaking of offense, I'd keep Yeldon, remind Daboll that he is better than Gore and has great hands, and also draft a RB.  That's a good backfield with Yeldon, Singletary and rookie. 

 

Edited by RyanC883
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Good work, I like Yannick but I don’t love him at 20m per. I think LB is a much bigger need than many of us want to admit. I expect a serious LB in the draft or FA. 

 

My only complaint would be on Phillips, I don’t know why so many fans are ok with him leaving at that 9-10 million range. Plenty of people have spent time defending Star’s contract but we aren’t willing to pay a disruptive DT?

 

#wewantPhillips

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