billsfan_34 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 21 hours ago, Sunshower said: After looking at the free agent crop I think it’s safe to say that we should address RB and WR in the draft. There does seem to be some pass rush help however in free agency. Here’s my short list of players I like Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh: Perfect guy to replace Trent Murphy and Shaq Lawson. He racked up 11.5 sacks last year in Pittsburgh and was a terror off the edge. Can play some LB as well but ideally I think you just let him attack the QB. Projected at 5yrs $80m Jordan Jenkins, OLB, NYJ: This is my ideal choice to replace Lorenzo Alexander. Jenkins is good for 8 sacks a year. He is a speedy LB and would round out our LB room. Bud Dupree, Jordan Jenkins and Jerry Hughes rushing the QB is a scary reality for any QB. Projected $8-10m/yr Robby Anderson, WR, NYJ: If healthy I think Robby Anderson could contribute on a significant level for our offense. Rookie WRs historically take a year or two to come into their own so Anderson could buy some time for our draftees. Could come cheap on a short term deal. Brian Bulaga, RT, Packers: Obviously a stalwart in Green Bay for so long. He’s a grizzled vet but I think he still has some juice left. At 32 years old he may have a solid 2 or 3 years left. Green Bay will likely move to re-sign him. Projected at $10m/yr Matt Judon, DE/OLB, Baltimore Very similar player to Bud Dupree, just not as productive. Regardless, Judon is no slouch. He would invigorate that EDGE position and would provide a solid replacement and upgrade left by Lorenzo Alexander. Jack Conklin, RT, Tennessee Drafted #8 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, Conklin has lived up to his billing as a dominant RT. Having helped pave the way for the NFL’s leading rusher Derrick Henry, Conklin is in line for a huge payday. Ford struggled at RT and could benefit from going into one of those guard spots. Conklin would give us a dominant RT and help keep Josh Allen upright. Projected $15m/yr. Daryl Williams, RT, Carolina Daryl Williams has had some injury issues in the past, but when healthy has proven to decent starter. I don’t think he’d be an upgrade over Ford but it would still allow us to bump Ford into guard. Kind of a risky gamble, wouldn’t overpay but if the price was right I’d go for it. Solid, albeit not great player. Nice work! But where is my boy Henry in all of this? Not so sure about Anderson- he is a nice mid level receiver and we have enough of those. Bulaga would give us the much needed flexibility to bring Ford to guard where he belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 22 hours ago, NewEra said: Judon is much better than Dupree imo and is easily best player on your list. Can’t see anyway the ravens let him go. i don’t think Jenkins is a speedy LB. i think Anderson is good. I just don’t think he’s a process guy, meaning we don’t want him. We need a RT- I agree. Ford shouldn’t play there next year, but most likely will Agreed with all of this. The only part that I'm not 100% sold on is the Anderson part. I would tend to lean towards agreeing with you, but at the same time, it's seemed like we've pursued basically every good WR that's become available in the past year regardless of any issues they might have (with the exception of Gordon). Robby's might be worse than anyone else's though. He's pretty much the only FA WR I'm interested in though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 A couple more guys not mentioned that I would have some level of interest in: Edge - Carl Nassib Edge - Markus Golden RB - Buck Allen RB - Peyton Barber LB - Jamie Collins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wasnt Conklin the guy after the Tennessee game that the bills dl had beef with? Hard to see him coming here if thats the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Dupree, Judon and Conklin seem very unlikely to actually make it to free agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: Wasnt Conklin the guy after the Tennessee game that the bills dl had beef with? Hard to see him coming here if thats the case That was Taylor Lewan I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: Wasnt Conklin the guy after the Tennessee game that the bills dl had beef with? Hard to see him coming here if thats the case I think that was Lewan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bray Wyatt Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: I think that was Lewan 3 minutes ago, DCOrange said: That was Taylor Lewan I believe Ah ok! Then yes lets get him (Conklin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: Wasnt Conklin the guy after the Tennessee game that the bills dl had beef with? Hard to see him coming here if thats the case No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) On the topic of the pass-rushers, from everyone's favorite analytics site: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-misleading-sack-numbers-free-agents-2020 The basic premise of the article is that pressure rate is more indicative of future sacks than current sacks are (similar to how point differential is a better indicator for future wins than current wins are). This is objectively true; not just PFF creating their own grades based on what they're seeing. With that in mind, the parts relevant to our players/targets: Quote DI Jordan Phillips, Buffalo Bills The casual fan will look at Phillips’ stat line and think this was a breakout year. He had 10 sacks after recording just six in his first four seasons combined. The issue is that the sacks didn’t come as a result of Phillips winning more of his pass-rushes or showing dominant reps with quick wins. In fact, Phillips had the lowest PFF pass-rushing grade of his career this season at 60.2. 10 of his 25 total pressures resulted in sacks – an extremely high rate – and a good chunk of those sacks came with the quarterback tucking the ball and running into his waiting arms. As a player who has yet to crack an overall grade of 60.0 in a season, it would behoove teams to not spend big money on Phillips chasing his sack total. To his credit, he did leave us with this work of art against the Miami Dolphins in Week 11. Edge Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh Steelers Through the first four seasons of his career, Dupree had all the makings of a first-round bust. He didn’t crack a 65.0 pass-rush grade in any of those seasons, nor did he have a pressure rate north of 12%. That has all seemed to change in 2019, but it’s largely been the splash plays that have brought about that change. Dupree’s 13 sacks are more than double any prior season of his career, and his four forced fumbles are two more than he had from 2015 to 2018 combined. Year Pressure Rate Sacks 2015 7.6% (88 / 100) 4 2016 8.6% (N/A – not enough snaps) 4 2017 11.8% (46 / 100) 6 2018 10.4% (56 / 100) 6 2019 10.1% (68 / 100) 13 What should concern the Steelers when looking at the potential of re-signing Dupree, along with other potential suitors, is that his pressure rate for 2019 sits at only 10.1%. That ranks 70th among edge rushers, tied with Cassius Marsh and John Simon. Dupree’s sack total with a pressure rate that low and a four-year track record of subpar production as a pass-rusher should bring reason for pause for NFL teams this offseason. Edge Jadeveon Clowney, Seattle Seahawks On the surface, it appears that Clowney hasn’t done a whole lot to improve his contract situation this offseason with missed time due to injury and just four sacks on nearly 400 pass-rushing snaps. It doesn’t look like he’ll ever be the dominant pass-rusher off the edge that the Houston Texans expected when they took him as the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, but he’s also not the 86th-best qualifying edge rusher with 200 or more pass-rushing snaps as his 2019 sack rate would suggest. Clowney’s pressure rate of 12.2% sits closer to the middle of the pack, but even that doesn’t show how disruptive he’s been. His pass-rushing grade of 79.1 ranks 16th among all edge rushers thanks in large part to just how unblockable he looks at times, such as the above snap against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5. Paired with another strong season in run defense, Clowney’s overall grade of 87.3 ranks 10th among players at the position. Three sacks or not, Clowney is one of the top impact edge defenders in the NFL. Edge Adrian Clayborn, Atlanta Falcons I touched on Beasley earlier as one of the players who might be overvalued by his sack numbers. His running mate at edge, Clayborn, falls in the other camp. He only had four sacks on the season, but very few edge rushers won a higher rate of their pass-rushing snaps. The top-five edge defenders with 200 or more pass-rushing snaps in pass-rush win rate were J.J. Watt (25.3%), Myles Garrett (25.0%), Joey Bosa (22.9%), Za’Darius Smith (21.2%) and Clayborn (21.1%). Clayborn has shown flashes in games – who can forget the Chaz Green game – and seasons (2017) where he has looked dominant, but he has been unable to string together multiple seasons at that level. With his last three seasons being his three best seasons in PFF overall grade, it makes sense for a team to capitalize on his low sack total from 2019 and bring him in on a team-friendly deal in 2020. Edited January 10, 2020 by DCOrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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