My Off-Season Primer: Position Group: RB

[MAJBobby]

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  As mentioned from @whatdroughtI will link th ones I already have done on the bottom of this post.  Hope you enjoy the read.   Only OL and WR left on Offense 

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 3 players 2.834M Cap ranked 23rd in league) - I like this finally not putting a ton of cap space into this position.

T.J. Yeldon (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.65M against cap if Cut

Devin Singletary (UFA 2023)

Christian Wade (signed futures deal)

 

Expiring Contracts

Frank Gore (37 yrs old) (2.0M AVV)

Senorise Perry (28 yrs old) (720K AVV)

 

Possible Trade TGTS:

None - Never trade for a RB in offseason

 

My Take:

 First, I will address the expiring contracts.  I think Gore retires, but even if he doesn’t, I do not want him back (which likely means another veteran RB signed staying with the McD and Beane mentality of a veteran in every room).  Also, Senorise Perry they very well could bring him back but that is not going to happen until after the draft IMO.  He is one of those post draft, 1 year no guaranteed signings.  The expiring contracts do not hurt the room in terms of production (might help it meaning Gore doesn’t get his token touches) but what it does hurt is the Veteran Presence in the room.  I guess Beane and McD could look at Yeldon and see if he can bring that presence, but I think they will look for one.  I would rather they not as this room IMO doesn’t need it, they are RBs after all. 

 

Lets look at Singletary, first his numbers 151 Attempts, 12.6 per game 775 yards 5.1 ypc, 2TDs, 24.5% 1st down percentage, 7 20+ runs, 4 fumbles (1 lost), 41tgts, 29 Rec, 194 yards, 2 TDs, 70.7% catch rate.  Now before I continue I just want to do one thing on rushing only…..

 

Josh Jacobs 242 attempts, 1,150 yards 18.6 attempts a game.  Let’s see what Motor looks like with those attempt numbers

Motor 242 attempts 1,234 yards. 

 

Ok now that that is over let me get back to Motor.  What I like about him, I knew he had some good vision that is what was talked about since he was drafted.  However, I would like to say his vision is much better than anticipated.  I am talking Freddie Jackson type vision in his rookie year.  What I didn’t know about him is how powerful he is.  Yes, some of the broken tackles can be attributed to his low center of gravity, but man I don’t remember seeing a little back move the pile like he does, I think I can count on two hands the number of times I saw the first tackler in bring him down.  That is why I would get infuriated when Daboll and McD would force Gore in on short yardage. 

 

Where he does need to improve though is pass pro (cheap copout I know all rookies need to improve here) but it is true, he got better as the year went on, but still an issue.  4 Fumbles on 151 attempts is a high as well, so I would like for him to improve that aspect of his game as well, though near the end of the season I did see him cover the ball before taking contact, and my notes have 3 of those fumbles coming when he was fighting for yards. 

 

But to the rest of the room the talent is lacking IMO.  I know there will be people here coming pounding the table for Wade, for me it is a good story but right now that is all it is.  He had a TON to learn but do look forward to seeing if he did at camp. 

 

My UFA listing, I am about to show is going to be based on replacing Gore.  I don’t like spending big UFA money on RBs, when they can be so easily found in the draft very year.  That is my mindset on this specific position group in terms of UFA Acquisitions.

  

UFAs Possible

Tier 1

Carlos Hyde (value around 3M) – This IMO is who I would like if we are looking to replace Gore’s Veteran Presence.

Lamar Miller

Jordon Howard (might have someone overpay for him to start)

 

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson

LSean McCoy

Bilal Powell

 

Draft

Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades)

Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin)

J.K Dobbins (Ohio State)

D’Andre Swift (Georgia)

Travis Etienne (Clemson)

 

Tier 2 (3rd-5th round)

Chuba Hubbard (OK ST)

Cam Akers (FL ST)

Najee Harris (Alabama)

Clyd Edwards Helaire (LSU)

Zack Moss (UTAH)

Lamical Perine (Florida)

 

Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA)

Eno Benjamin (AZ ST)

A.J Dillon (BC)

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (Vandy)

Trey Sermon (OK)

Michal Warren II (Cincy)

Tony Jones Jr (ND)

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

I would not go into UFA and get a Veteran for presence I think Yeldon will be fine and at this point I am thinking Singletary has picked Gore’s Brain.  Here is a thought, bring Gore back as a coaching intern if he retires.  Now that said I am not going to add to this room via UFA, So I will go into the draft.  The pick I am targeting on using for the RB would be one of the 5ths, (don’t need to go earlier as I think Singletary has shown he can be a RB1).  So that puts me in Tier 2.  Obviously if one of the top 4 drop than I would take one at 150. If not the two I would look at that would bring a different dimension in terms of Motor, but now hurt what the offense would want to do is Najee Harris and Zach Moss would be my TGTs at 150.

 

The organizational depth here is a little lacking, but that would be addressed with the draft.  You take one RB later and we are fine.  Singletary has shown he can carry the RB1 and the position should flow through him.   

 

Past Writeups

Quarterback

Tight Ends

Specialists

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[NewEra]

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

[MAJBobby]

Just now, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

I guess I could go that way, it just goes against every fiber of my being to buy a RB.  We do that and Henry is the RB1 and takes 80-90% of the carries.  And to clarify I am not using our 3rd,  I would use 150 (or one of our 5ths) that puts us in the of Najee or Moss by my current gradings

[Rc2catch]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

I would pay him whatever he wants lol. As long as they can cut bait after 2-3 years no big deal. There’s not another player in the league capable of what he is. Him and motor and Allen together could set rushing records. 
I can’t see anyway Tennessee ever lets him leave after securing the rushing title and what he did to the Pats. Their fans would riot he’s the face of the franchise. 

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I guess I could go that way, it just goes against every fiber of my being to buy a RB.  We do that and Henry is the RB1 and takes 80-90% of the carries.  And to clarify I am not using our 3rd,  I would use 150 (or one of our 5ths) that puts us in the of Najee or Moss by my current gradings

Very wishful thinking getting Najee in rd 5 but you could be right.

[atlbillsfan1975]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One inexpensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Edited January 8, 2020 by atlbillsfan1975

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Very wishful thinking getting Najee in rd 5 but you could be right.

Might need to be a 4th as I refine my grades but right now my early grades have him at 161 overall. That could be my downgrading the position Bias as well.  

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Might need to be a 4th as I refine my grades but right now my early grades have him at 161 overall. That could be my downgrading the position Bias as well.  

Thanks for the write ups.  I enjoy them

5 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

I’m sure we can make it work either with Henry or a low priced option.  Our offense needs a BIG boost.  Henry is BIG and would really help this team immensely, but I understand why you wouldn’t want to spend on him.  I usually feel the same.  Henry is different right now

[Luka]

AJ Dillon would be my draft choice. 1,600 yards and 5.3 YPC at 6 foot and 245? Sign me up. I think the need for a veteran presence is a little overstated, it was nice to have Gore I guess, but I think McDermott really needs to address that kind of thing in his coaching staff to maximize talent on the roster for gameday. Can't keep giving up roster spots to keep a veteran. Let Singletary become the leader in that room.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’d try and offer Derrick Henry 2 years 30 mill all gtd.  I don’t see anyone else giving him more than that and I don’t see us spending to the cap this year or next.  So why not overpay a true difference maker that brings something to the table no other RB brings.  Keep that 3rd rd draft pick and use it on OL, DL, WR, CB or TE

 

i normally not like spending big on a RB either.  Our best chance to win a SB is next year imo.  Go for it

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Luka said:

AJ Dillon would be my draft choice. 1,600 yards and 5.3 YPC at 6 foot and 245? Sign me up. I think the need for a veteran presence is a little overstated, it was nice to have Gore I guess, but I think McDermott really needs to address that kind of thing in his coaching staff to maximize talent on the roster for gameday. Can't keep giving up roster spots to keep a veteran. Let Singletary become the leader in that room.

I hear you on the Vet in the room thing.  IMO there are certain position groups that don't need it.  And RB is at the top of those groups.  it is the easiest position to play in football.

 

And Dillon is a good choice too that would allow for using one of our  6ths at this point 

Edited January 8, 2020 by MAJBobby

[The_Ripster]

11 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pass on high priced Henry.
It appears Beane can find a very good back in the third round. I think he can do it again. And save 14.5 million a year and put it towards another player or players at a higher value position. DE, CB, WR, and OL. 
we need a complimentary back to go with Singletary from the draft. One in expensive vet like another Tenn player, Dion Lewis.

Is dion lewis available?

[SCBills]

If we don't make any OL changes, and shore up the defense in FA with a pass rusher and re-signings, i'd love to go:

 

RD1 WR

RD2 WR

RD2 RB (trade up)

[MAJBobby]

Just now, The_Ripster said:

Is dion lewis available?

He is not on the current UFA list

[frogger]

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

I just researched zekes contract.  I didn’t know it was 50 mill gtd. Gd.  Looks like we’d have to offer 2 years 40 mill gtd to have a chance.  We have 90+ this year. No chance we spend to cap, front load Henry’s contract so we take the brunt this season.  

That being said, again, I totally understand why those wouldn’t want to commit that kind of cash to a rb.

 

i just think Henry is the player that can have the biggest impact on our offense and help us win a super bowl this year or next.  Running back or not, he’s impactful.  There isn’t a rb that you will draft that can do what he does.  

 

you can pretend that he’s going to get hurt, but that’s just make believe at this point.  He turned 26 6 days ago.

Edited January 8, 2020 by NewEra

[MJS]

I'd want Kenyon Drake, Matt Breida, or Chris Thompson.

[offyourocker]

2 minutes ago, frogger said:

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

no because that will never happen

[atlbillsfan1975]

36 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

Agreed. Even more so with a back who runs with Henry’s style. Big bruising back. He does have great speed too, I’ve watched him play since college. 

[MAJBobby]

40 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yep.  As good as Henry is right now, I guaranty that in another year or two, he will be banged up and overpaid, like almost every running back who gets a fat second contract.  Pass.

Don't you think it's unrealistic to think you can get Henry on a two-year deal?  He's a prototype back and led the league in rushing over the past two years.  He'll want (and probably get) a Zeke Elliott type deal.   

And like Zeke and Gurley will be immediately overpaid the minute it is signed. 

13 minutes ago, frogger said:

If I’m drafting I get two.  Najee Harris in the 4th and AJ Dillon in the 5th, Dillon isn’t a bad blocker and could you imagine seeing a backfield with Allen, Harris, Dillon and Singletary all in it at once in a wishbone formation?

no. And wouldn’t want that. 

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I just researched zekes contract.  I didn’t know it was 50 mill gtd. Gd.  Looks like we’d have to offer 2 years 40 mill gtd to have a chance.  We have 90+ this year. No chance we spend to cap, front load Henry’s contract so we take the brunt this season.  

That being said, again, I totally understand why those wouldn’t want to commit that kind of cash to a rb.

 

i just think Henry is the player that can have the biggest impact on our offense and help us win a super bowl this year or next.  Running back or not, he’s impactful.  There isn’t a rb that you will draft that can do what he does.  

 

you can pretend that he’s going to get hurt, but that’s just make believe at this point.  He turned 26 6 days ago.

I think a top end TE like Hooper or Henry would be smarter use of the money. And helps the offense as a whole A lot More than a RB