HOUSE Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) This sounds like an awful lot of money you're throwing around... Edited January 7, 2020 by HOUSE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I appreciate the thoughts and details. The only philosophical part I disagree with you on is that none of your proposed free agents are consistently above average "difference makers." Your proposed salary for those 6 free agents is about 37 million. Sure...these 6 would improve depth and fill spots, but I would rather get 3 free agents with that 37 million or a little more that are younger, more upside, or more proven that are plug-n-play starters/upgrades for a similiar amount of money. Get me any 3 of Henry, Hooper, Bulaga, Conklin, Armstead, Ngaouke, Green or whomever the Bills feel are top tier free agents at the RB/RT/WR/TE/DE, and I believe that money will have been better and more intentionally spent for the success of the Bills. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 This was amazing, thanks for organizing all this information. Couple comments: 1) This breakdown reminds me of the value of players who can do two things, or even three. They are crucial. For instance, how Steve Tasker was our special teams ace, a very good returner, and a *great* 4th receiver all within one roster spot. 2) We have too many roster spots dedicated to players who play only one function not better others on our team: DiMarco, Roberts, Foster, McKenzie, etc. Less players who can do more beats more players who all 3) Related to this, to me we don't need McKenzie, we can save that 3.5 million, assuming we draft or sign a talented WR. Speedy guys who can run jet sweeps are not that hard to find. 4) Beckham would be cool, but he might not be a process guy. Unless he's a littler humbler since his debacle in Cleveland, and wants to buy into a winning team, the way Randy Moss did in New England (Moss of course was twice as good as OBJ). 5) I'd prioritize finding a solid second running back, a battering ram a la Darick Holmes or Antowain Smith, who can punish defenses once they're tired from chasing Motor all over the phone booth. 6) Maybe we can carry three TEs, instead of four? Save a roster spot that way. Did we really need Knox, Smith, and Kroft and Sweeney? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I don't see Milano getting re-signed. We need better and more consistent LBs around Edmunds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pbomb Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Conklin, aj green, and judon are my 3 targets. Re-sign Wallace, Spain , and k Johnson. Let Shaq and Phillips go and hopefully get comp picks. Extend white & Dawkins at some point. Trade down into the beginning of the 2nd and get an extra 3rd. Go wr, rb, de, and dt with top 4 picks. Then cb, lb, and s for depth in rounds 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 The earlier and more detailed a prognostication is, the greater the room for error, but criticism is rather pointless. You put a lot of thought and calculation into the effort, and it is rather interesting. It would be interesting to bump this in May and compare it with what the Bills have actually done to that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfball323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I might have missed it, but did you have us re-signing Hyde? That's a critical piece with Poyer. Or can we not afford that tandem for what they'll likely ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Putin Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 17 hours ago, NC Book said: I think I would sacrifice what Lee Smith brings in blocking to have the versatility that Ebron would bring to the offense. I think the 2019 Bills would score more ppg with Ebron in the lineup rather than Smith. Maybe only slightly, but I think it would be more. If that would be the case he would be an upgrade imo. I was really disappointed with Lee Smith this year for a veteran to have so MANY freaking penalties is unexeptable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 18 hours ago, elijah said: DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love I really appreciate the work you put into your post. Just wanted to touch on the DE specifically. I’d hate this to be our group going into the draft. Shaq has been good enough that I like him in the 3 man rotation, but I don’t think he’s full time starter material. That group needs another quality starter and then I’d be happy with it. I don’t see them cutting Murphy until they had an upgrade in place and I don’t see them getting that thin in the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 19 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: Firstly.. thanks for the effort in the first post... always enjoy reading peoples thoughts in this area, particularly when they are as well throught and as detailed as yours... I want to question you on Spain though... He has already come out and said he wants to stay in Buffalo and is prepared to get a deal done prior to FA starting... So I think your figures of what his expecations may be are on the high side... Also,.. not sure if you have seen this, but a couple of his influential team mates love him... Now I know that they are not going to come out and say anything negative about him, but the comments seem more positive than you usually see... https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/buffalo-bills-quinton-spain-back-mitch-morse-josh-allen/ Look.. he is not going to play for nothing ,so I think if they really want him they would need to make an offer that is fair... I would put this at 3 years $20Mil...$10 MIl guaranteed.... Ive got that from John Miller getting paid 3 years $16.5Mil in FA last year who I would rate as a much lesser player.. It seems to me that most people dont want to pay him even half that as he is just an "average" player at the position.. . The issue is though that he was brought in on a "prove it ' deal on chump change, and he has proven it in my eyes.,. It looks at odds to the message that they want to send of guys getting a chance and proving themselves... It may set a bad example if they dont make a genuine attempt to keep him and just let him walk out the door into Free Agency... I have not seen those quotes from Morse answer and Allen about Spain and they definitely make me appreciate him a little more.. However, having signed that deal last year I just think he and his agent have their eyes a little bigger than 3yrs/$20M, probably closer to 4yrs//$35M. I would kove love to have Spain back, but I can’t see Beane wanting to spend that money with what’s already invested in Morse and knowing that Dawkins is coming up as well. 2 hours ago, golfball323 said: I might have missed it, but did you have us re-signing Hyde? That's a critical piece with Poyer. Or can we not afford that tandem for what they'll likely ask for? I didn’t have us resigning Hyde, but just because he still has 2 years left and unfortunately is getting up there in age so I wasn’t sure what an appropriate contract will be. Who knows if if he maintains the same level or starts to take some small steps back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: 4) Beckham would be cool, but he might not be a process guy. Unless he's a littler humbler since his debacle in Cleveland, and wants to buy into a winning team, the way Randy Moss did in New England (Moss of course was twice as good as OBJ). 5) I'd prioritize finding a solid second running back, a battering ram a la Darick Holmes or Antowain Smith, who can punish defenses once they're tired from chasing Motor all over the phone booth. I’m a huggggeeeee process and culture fan, and the Randy Moss comparison for OBJ is what I keep using when I’m pushing for Odell. I think Odell has a lot of issues that can all be solved by winning. Most of the noise he makes is related to his losing team. And that second running back I think is going to be found in the draft. The value isn’t their in free agency for anyone besides maybe Jay Ajayi or Jordon Howard 1 hour ago, BarleyNY said: I really appreciate the work you put into your post. Just wanted to touch on the DE specifically. I’d hate this to be our group going into the draft. Shaq has been good enough that I like him in the 3 man rotation, but I don’t think he’s full time starter material. That group needs another quality starter and then I’d be happy with it. I don’t see them cutting Murphy until they had an upgrade in place and I don’t see them getting that thin in the group. I agree that if this is the situation I would want one more DE going into the draft, and I’m actually surprised I didn’t add one to this group. I might go back and add someone like a Robert Quinn on a short term deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfball323 Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, elijah said: I didn’t have us resigning Hyde, but just because he still has 2 years left and unfortunately is getting up there in age so I wasn’t sure what an appropriate contract will be. Who knows if if he maintains the same level or starts to take some small steps back. Looks like he JUST turned 29 on the 31st of December. I think we need to try to re-sign him and keep those two (Poyer) together. If we can't give Hyde what he wants then that's another story. Edited January 8, 2020 by golfball323 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tsaikotic Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, Wizard said: I appreciate the thoughts and details. The only philosophical part I disagree with you on is that none of your proposed free agents are consistently above average "difference makers." Your proposed salary for those 6 free agents is about 37 million. Sure...these 6 would improve depth and fill spots, but I would rather get 3 free agents with that 37 million or a little more that are younger, more upside, or more proven that are plug-n-play starters/upgrades for a similiar amount of money. Get me any 3 of Henry, Hooper, Bulaga, Conklin, Armstead, Ngaouke, Green or whomever the Bills feel are top tier free agents at the RB/RT/WR/TE/DE, and I believe that money will have been better and more intentionally spent for the success of the Bills. I agree and I don't see Beane going after 5 or 8 free agents this year like he did last year...maybe 3 this year...I'd like to keep Shaq and go after Ngaouke and draft a replacement for Hughes...Hughes is 31 and only has 2 years left on his contract w/ a potential out clause after the 2020 season...so it would look like - DE: Hughes, Ngaouke, Lawson, Murphy, Johnson ... Murphy would be my guy out if they draft a good DE this draft....also I feel they should re-sign Jordan Phillips...McD's defense has to have 4 guys that can rush so the rest can do their jobs front four : Ngaouke - Phillips - Oliver - Hughes LBers: Milano - Edmunds - Joseph Edited January 8, 2020 by Tsaikotic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luka Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 I hate everything about this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Luka said: I hate everything about this post. Elaborate, let’s have a healthy debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 13 hours ago, golfball323 said: Looks like he JUST turned 29 on the 31st of December. I think we need to try to re-sign him and keep those two (Poyer) together. If we can't give Hyde what he wants then that's another story. I don't understand why people think we need to keep Poyer. McDermott has shown he is very good with finding solid DBs. And Poyer can't tackle worth a damn. Hyde is amazing tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 hours ago, elijah said: And that second running back I think is going to be found in the draft. The value isn’t their in free agency for anyone besides maybe Jay Ajayi or Jordon Howard I agree that if this is the situation I would want one more DE going into the draft, and I’m actually surprised I didn’t add one to this group. Agreed, the draft is the best place for the second RB--rookie contract, fresh legs, and we have a long history of finding great runners in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elijah Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Gambit said: I don't understand why people think we need to keep Poyer. McDermott has shown he is very good with finding solid DBs. And Poyer can't tackle worth a damn. Hyde is amazing tho. I’m not sure you NEED to keep Poyer, but if you have the extra space and he continues playing at the level he is, why not give a bridge to groom your next safety? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 2:55 PM, elijah said: I’m not suggesting to resign Allen this off-season, I’m suggesting we resign Allen in 2022 to this money. Its to account for it early so as too not overspend in the long run. Man, out of all the work you put in the one thing that is driving me nuts is the lack of hyphens between “re” and “sign” in your posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noacls Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 19 hours ago, Tsaikotic said: I agree and I don't see Beane going after 5 or 8 free agents this year like he did last year...maybe 3 this year...I'd like to keep Shaq and go after Ngaouke and draft a replacement for Hughes...Hughes is 31 and only has 2 years left on his contract w/ a potential out clause after the 2020 season...so it would look like - DE: Hughes, Ngaouke, Lawson, Murphy, Johnson ... Murphy would be my guy out if they draft a good DE this draft....also I feel they should re-sign Jordan Phillips...McD's defense has to have 4 guys that can rush so the rest can do their jobs front four : Ngaouke - Phillips - Oliver - Hughes LBers: Milano - Edmunds - Joseph Ugh. That looks like a 32nd ranked rush defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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