My Off-Season Primer: Postion Group - TE

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, the skycap said:

If Hooper is acquired, cut Kroft and Smith the second after. Save 7 mil. 

Bingo. They pay for 7 of his 10. 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

yeah Hard to do UFAs now. But one Franchise Tags are applied I tend to just do a post highlighting strictly UFA at that point. 
 

this is more of an early exercise for me looking at organizational depth on Bills and Depth in UFA classes at each group knowing some will go away and some more will get added. Just a snap shot in time. 
 

And for the first time in about 2 decades I haven’t started offseason stuff until January. Normally I am already well into offseason mode by November looking at needs and organizational depth etc. 

FWIW, Indy has already said they're moving on from Ebron. There's something about that guy that is off. 

[Like A Mofo]

Excellent post.

 

Okwuegbunam is a guy that I could see going low 1st/Early 2nd when it is all said and done. Maybe Buffalo can move down a little in Round 1 and draft Okwuegbunam but we have a long way to go before mock drafts.

[John from Riverside]

13 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Knox moves to TE2. Which is about where he should be right now. So now my 2 TE sets actually have two legit options. 
 

If he progresses to be better (he may he may not) in 3 years when he is really ready for TE 1 you can flip Hooper or have two legit weapons at the position. 
 

Beane isn’t going to spend in UFA on a top end WR he is gonna address that in draft. So get the legit Offensive weapon at TE. 
 

again this thinking only applies to Hooper and Henry. If those 2 are not available then I am not saying sign an Eifert to take away from Knox. 
 

they will get more Value for their money spent in this position over WR. Because how this one position helps three (QB, WR and TE). 

So what do we do with Sweeney who actually made plays when active?

[MAJBobby]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

FWIW, Indy has already said they're moving on from Ebron. There's something about that guy that is off. 

they should. He can’t block and over last two years have had a 59.9% catch rate 

4 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

Excellent post.

 

Okwuegbunam is a guy that I could see going low 1st/Early 2nd when it is all said and done. Maybe Buffalo can move down a little in Round 1 and draft Okwuegbunam but we have a long way to go before mock drafts.

I could see him as a riser. My early grades have him in the 4th. But really haven’t started digging in to draft hard yet. 

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

So what do we do with Sweeney who actually made plays when active?

he becomes TE 3. Which is about what he is. 
 

8 catches 114 yards 0 TDs ISNT really setting anything on fire 

Edited January 7, 2020 by MAJBobby

[John from Riverside]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

they should. He can’t block and over last two years have had a 59.9% catch rate 

I could see him as a riser. My early grades have him in the 4th. But really haven’t started digging in to draft hard yet. 

he becomes TE 3. Which is about what he is. 
 

8 catches 114 yards 0 TDs ISNT really setting anything on fire 

Bobby....he was hardly active because of Kroft and Lee

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Bobby....he was hardly active because of Kroft and Lee

So?  What has be shown that says he can step in and be a TE2. 
 

The smart way to play this position for Allen and the Team would be. 
 

sign Hooper or Henry 

cut Kroft

 

you have the camp battle between Sweeney and Smith. Smith loses he gets cut out of camp

[klos63]

3 hours ago, The_Ripster said:

Man, keeping Knox and getting Hooper or Ebron would be so huge for Josh Allen's check down. Great post MAJBOBBY.

They don't need to be check down options. These are players that can get downfield. We don't like check downs.

[Green Lightning]

6 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

Curious, what makes you a talent expert fake major?

Hey, he's an informed fan who has done some good work here. Agree or disagree, it's a good discussion.  I think Sweeney has more upside than the  Major does but no need to get snarky. I'm looking forward to the other position group threads.

[Floydboy12]

I think Knox is gonna be a stud. No way I'm spending FA dollars on the position. In fact I would cut one of Kroft or Smith. Keep Sweeney and maybe draft another late. Bills are fine at the position. 

[Lurker]

4 minutes ago, Floydboy12 said:

I think Knox is gonna be a stud. No way I'm spending FA dollars on the position.

 

Knox is the little girl with the curl right now.    Someday we may get to home plate with him, but right now we're only at light petting.

 

And, as the Raven have shown, having three good TEs is a real game changer...

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, CBD said:

My gut on what they'll do for this group is...nothing. All 4 that they currently have will come back for one more season.

You might be correct here to most fans dismay.

I am going to say it, and it is not a negative intention.

Josh is not getting the ball to anyone consistently. or are they catching them with any more % than the TEs.
I do not expect the WRs or the TEs to be what will be fixed. Good QBs make their Receivers look good.
Knox will become a better blocker and look balls in. and still have a Beast mode in him. Sweeney will learn with reps. he has decent hands but been on PS and was not ready for prime time.

 Kroft ? I feel strongly he will never be the player he was. The injuries have taken their toll. But Bills might renegotiate his contract and if so likely keep him on.

 Smith is bitter pill for us. This might depend on who is OC next year. but he does beat the snot out of Defensive players when he not getting called for something stupid. 
 Croom i keep laughing about  LOL
But yes they could keep them all.
disclaimer

 Bills picked up Kroft before the draft, and the scored decently twice in said draft last year. OOPs

and everyone is upgradable. Have to think that way.

 another good Post Maj.

 I am being a bit contrary.
 

Allen need to make his pass catchers better than he has to date. he needs to take this offseason to do just that.Then see who rises and who falls.

 Let Beanes do what Beane does of course : )
Good thread

 

[whatdrought]

I’d be happy with Hooper or Henry. Also, Harrison Bryant in the later rounds would be great. He’s from the same school as Singletary so they may want to dip into that well again.

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

I feel like we aere good here.  Cut the dead weight guys....bring Sweeney up.....cut the worthless higher paid guys.....Knox is the primary....Sweeney is frankly better then Kroft.....maybe draft a TE late that also plays great special teams?

 

WR is where it is at......Duke Williams is the only size we have at that position

 some of this

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

I am taking advantage of it.  I am going and signing a top 5 TE.

aint nothing wrong with that. But get it right and grab from your tier one. 

25 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Knox is the little girl with the curl right now.    Someday we may get to home plate with him, but right now we're only at light petting.

 

And, as the Raven have shown, having three good TEs is a real game changer...

excellent point about Ravens. New bar set by them

[The_Ripster]

1 hour ago, klos63 said:

They don't need to be check down options. These are players that can get downfield. We don't like check downs.

 hopefully they can get downfield too but i mean heck, why not? 5 yards is 5 yards ? why you being picky? if the bills could get 5 yards every single play they would be raising the lombardi this year. check downs are essential for josh allen to get his comp percentage above 60. having a man always open is major. as long as we agree they need an upgrade at the position we can squabble about how we're gonna beat every team on the schedule endlessly klos63. hahaha. ?


 

[klos63]

1 hour ago, The_Ripster said:

 hopefully they can get downfield too but i mean heck, why not? 5 yards is 5 yards ? why you being picky? if the bills could get 5 yards every single play they would be raising the lombardi this year. check downs are essential for josh allen to get his comp percentage above 60. having a man always open is major. as long as we agree they need an upgrade at the position we can squabble about how we're gonna beat every team on the schedule endlessly klos63. hahaha. ?


 

In his PC today Beane said he didn't like the idea of Allen being 'checkdown charlie'.

[The_Ripster]

13 minutes ago, klos63 said:

In his PC today Beane said he didn't like the idea of Allen being 'checkdown charlie'.

You know what, that makes sense that he said that because Josh did really struggle connecting with the deep ball this season.

I wouldn't mind if he could stab 'em deep and shred 'em 5 at a time honestly as long as the W's and TD's continue to add up next season.

[jrober38]

Save the money and don't sign Hooper.

 

Knox will be a top 10 tight end next year. 

 

He needs more targets. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

7 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them).  Hope you enjoy the read.  Did TE early for @RyanC883

 

 

Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 11.120M Cap ranked 10th in league)

 

Tyler Kroft (UFA 2022) – Saves 4.812M against cap if Cut

 

Lee Smith (UFA 2022) – Saves 2.25M against the cap if Cut. 

 

Dawson Knox (UFA 2023)

 

Tommy Sweeny (UFA 2023)

 

Nate Becker (signed futures deal)

 

 

 

My Take:

 

 

 

First, I would want more production out of this group that is 10th in the league in terms of Cap Commitment.  A heck of a lot more when the position group accounted for only: 46 rec, 604 yards 13.13 avg, 4 TDs.  Those numbers as a group would rank them as the 13th best TE in Rec, 11th best in yards, 20th in AVG, tied for 14th in TDs.

 

 

 

This position group is on the verge of being great IMO.  Also, there are to very easy cap savings moves if you go and get more.  I do think more is needed and if the Bills choose to do that, we will have one of the best TE room in the league and could be argued would be even better than Baltimore.  I will get to those move(s) later.  But First let m address the current Situation at this group.

 

 

 

Dawson Knox for a rookie did well, however a major issue that you cannot have with your TE is the drops.  H was tied for 4th in the league with 6 drops.  Add that into his 56.0% (28 rec 50 tgts) catch rate and you have a lot of drive killers, when your TE should be reliable for your QB.  What was interesting is when I looked at his numbers compared to other TEs and what sticks out to me is that he has respectable numbers for a NO 2 TE.  Ranked 36 in receptions, 23rd in Yards, 15th in AVG, 15th in 20+ catches and has a 53.6% 1st down rate.  Everyone knew he was raw coming out of School, and it showed.  I don’t think the plan ever was to have him start at TE, the INJ to Kroft solidified that this season and he struggled.  However, if he can fix the Drops and the Catch % I think there is something here.

 

 

 

The rest of the group I don’t really have much to talk about here except with Sweeney, in the limited opportunities he has had he has performed and that is a good thing.  I look at him as a younger better option than both Smith and Kroft.  So, I would improve this position with 2 (likely one Draft and 1 UFA).  You can easily walk away from Lee Smith and Kroft for savings and improve the position group at the same time, now before I get into that, because there is no immediate cap need, these two stays on the Roster until that improvement is on the team.

 

  

 

UFAs Possible

 

Tier 1: 

 

Hunter Henry (likely a 9.5M AVV)

 

Austin Hooper (likely a 10.5M AVV)

 

 

 

Tier 2:

 

Tyler Eifert

 

Jacob Hollister

 

Eric Ebron

 

 

 

Possible Trade Market

 

Greg Olsen

 

OJ Howard

 

 

 

Draft

 

Tier 1:

 

Brysen Hopkins (Purdue)

 

Hunter Bryant (Washington)

 

Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri)

 

Cole Kmet (ND)

 

 

 

Tier 2:

 

Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt)

 

Colby Parkinson (Stanford)

 

Cheyenne O’Grady (Arkansas)

 

 

 

Tier 3:

 

Harrison Bryant (FAU)

 

Josiah Deguara (Cincy)

 

Mitchell Wilcox (South FL)

 

 

 

Final thinking in this Position group for me would be:

 

 

 

Sign Austin Hooper (25 yrs old). 5 years 50M with 33 guaranteed, AVV 10M per.  That brings another 75 receptions and 6 TDs.  Gives Bills a legit game breaking TE at the TE1 and puts Knox in the TE2 role which would be perfect.  I also would go get Okwugbunam in the draft (likely a 4th rounder or later for a developmental athletic freak). 

 

 

 

After signing Hooper (back up plan would be Henry) I would release (don’t think I would find a pick for him) Kroft.  Another thing about Hooper is he would put the Veteran in the room that McD and Beane love so much, just one that can really play.  I also have Sweeney take over for Smith and cut Smith as well.  (Both Kroft and Smith might be post camp cuts as no immediate need for the cap space).

 

 

 

That would put the TE room going into camp something like this:

 

 

Austin Hooper

 

Dawson Knox

 

Tommy Sweeney

 

Albert Okwubunam

 

Tyler Kroft

 

Lee Smith

 

Nate Becker

 

 

 

Now getting Hooper or Henry likely means no drafted player in the position and I am OK with that as well, just showing the TE I would like out of this class.  But I would rather spend my 10M a year with Hooper or Henry over spending it in WR.   

 

 

 

I was OK with this group this season, they underperformed IMO based on the Cap Space allocated to it.  However there are two young talents that can grow, now go get a legit TE to add to this group and give Allen a reliable TE.

 

 

You left out Jason Croom, how can you possibly forget him??

 

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Just cut them today. Smith & Kroft have absolutely no trade value whatsoever. Not even a 7th for them. Save the cap space. Hooper and a better hands Knox would make for a very good TE duo. We're still waiting for the arrival of a TE1.

 

If Vlad Ducasse had trade value anyone does!!

 

Personally I wouldn't cut anyone until you need the cap space.  You never know who could get hurt between now and next September.   Plus do think there is trade value for another team who maybe had their TE get hurt prior to week #1.  Kroft's injury put him behind the 8 ball all season and he never caught up,  but some team may have interest.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You left out Jason Croom, how can you possibly forget him??

 

 

If Vlad Ducasse had trade value anyone does!!

 

Personally I wouldn't cut anyone until you need the cap space.  You never know who could get hurt between now and next September.   Plus do think there is trade value for another team who maybe had their TE get hurt prior to week #1.  Kroft's injury put him behind the 8 ball all season and he never caught up,  but some team may have interest.

 

 

ahh crap I did forget the future Son in Law. 
 

yeah he shouldn’t make the team